Friday 31 October 2014

TURKEYS EVIL" TRIUMVIRATE" : THE ASSAD REGIME, THE SHIITE-LED GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ, AND THE KURD'S


Executive Summary: 

TURKEY : FROM A ZERO PROBLEMS POLICY (WITH NEIGHBORS) TO ZERO NEIGHBORS

TURKEY’S EASTWARD TURN 

TURKEYS EVIL" TRIUMVIRATE" : THE  ASSAD REGIME, THE SHIITE-LED GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ, AND THE KURD'S

TURKEY CONTINUES TO CHAMPION THE PAN-ISLAMIC MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

TURKEY'S IMPERIAL FANTASY OF ESTABLISHING THE IKHWAN (MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD) BELT FROM TUNISIA TO GAZA

ERDOGAN'S GOVERNMENT INITIAL EXPECTATION WAS THAT THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD WOULD COME TO POWER IN SYRIA.

THE KURDISH EQUATION 

TURKEY  CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO FIRES

Triumvirate Symbol 

ASSAD’S WARNINGS START TO RING  TRUE AS SYRIAN STRIFE ARRIVES AT TURKEY’S DOORSTEP


When SUNNI rebels rose up against SYRIA’S BASHAR ASSAD in 2011, TURKEY reclassified its protege as a pariah, expecting him to lose power within months and join the autocrats of EGYPT, LIBYA, TUNISIA and YEMEN on the scrap heap of the ARAB Spring.

Background Information: 

IN 2011 WE WROTE: TUMBLING OF ASSAD REGIME COULD BE USED BY FUNDAMENTALISTS TO SEIZE POWER
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/06/assad-dilemma.html

ASSAD, in contrast, shielded diplomatically by RUSSIA and with military and financial support from IRAN and its SHIITE allies in LEBANON’S Hezbollah, warned that the fires of SYRIA’S sectarian war would burn its neighbors.

For TURKEY, despite the confidence of RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, elected this summer to the presidency after 11 years as prime minister and three straight general election victories, ASSAD’S warning is starting to ring uncomfortably true.

TURKEY’S foreign policy is in ruins. Its once shining image as a MUSLIM democracy and regional power in the NATO alliance and at the doors of the EUROPEAN UNION is badly tarnished.

Amid a backlash against political ISLAM across the region ERDOGAN is still irritating his ARAB neighbors by offering himself as a SUNNI ISLAMIST champion.

TURKEY : FROM A ZERO PROBLEMS POLICY (WITH NEIGHBORS) TO ZERO NEIGHBORS

The world, meanwhile, is transfixed by the desperate siege of KOBANI, the SYRIAN KURDISH town just over Turkey’s border, under attack by extremist SUNNI fighters with the ISLAMIC State group who are threatening to massacre its defenders.
ERDOGAN has enraged TURKEY’S own KURDISH minority — about a fifth of the population and half of all KURDS across the region — by seeming to prefer that ISLAMIC State JIHADIS extend their territorial gains in SYRIA and IRAQ rather than that KURDISH insurgents consolidate local power.
The forces holding on in KOBANI are part of the DEMOCRATIC UNION PARTY (PYD), closely allied to the KURDISTAN WORKERS PARTY (PKK), which has fought a 30-year war against the TURKISH state and is now holding peace talks with ANKARA.
Meanwhile, TURKISH tanks stood idly by as the unequal fight raged between the PYD and the ISLAMIC State, while ERDOGAN said both groups were “terrorists” and KOBANI would soon fall. It was a public relations disaster.

Background Information: 

TURKEYS CURRENT MIDDLE EAST POLICY MAKES ENEMIES WITH EVERYONE
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-everyones-enemy.html


WHY IS TURKEY SUPPORTING  ISLAMIC STATE FIGHTERS IN IRAQ?
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/08/turkey-and-isis-comrades-in-arms.html


TURKEY’S EASTWARD TURN 

It drew criticism from NATO allies in the U.S.-led coalition, which has bombed JIHADI positions around the town in coordination with the PYD. It also prompted KURDISH riots across southeast TURKEY resulting in more than 40 dead.

At the same time, TURKEY’S air force bombed PKK positions near the IRAQI border for the first time in two years, calling into question the 2013 cease-fire declared by ABDULLAH OCALAN, the jailed PKK leader. PKK commanders warned that if TURKEY let Kobani fall, they would go back to war.

Yet now that the UNITED STATES has dropped arms to KOBANI’S defenders, ERDOGAN has been forced to relent and open a TURKISH corridor for peshmerga fighters from IRAQ to reinforce KOBANI.
TURKISH officials fear this will provoke reprisals in TURKEY by the ISLAMIC State, activating networks it built during the two years the ERDOGAN government allowed Jihadi volunteers to cross its territory to fight in SYRIA. Almost anything TURKEY does now comes with big risks.

Background Information:


TURKEYS EVIL" TRIUMVIRATE" : THE  ASSAD REGIME, THE SHIITE-LED GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ, AND THE KURD'S

The polarization within TURKEY along sectarian and ethnic lines — which analysts say ERDOGAN has courted with his stridently SUNNI tone as communal conflict between Sunni and Shiite rages to TURKEY’S south — is easy to detect in the poor and deeply conservative district of Fatih in ISTANBUL.

“I prefer to have IS than PKK in control of KOBANI,” says Sitki, a shopkeeper. “They are MUSLIMS and we are MUSLIMS. (But) we as MUSLIMS should be ruled by the QURAN under SHARIAH law.”

Another local shopkeeper, Nurullah, 35, broadly agreed:

“The only mistake the government has made is to open the door to KURDISH refugees. PYD and PKK are the same, both terrorists. How do (the Americans) have the nerve to ask us to help PYD?”
“Of course Islamic State has sympathizers here because they are wiping out the PKK,” Nurullah continued.

Nearby, a bearded ARABIC-speaking man who declined to be named said it made sense that “TURKEY as a SUNNI nation supports IS over the crusaders,” a hostile reference to the U.S.-led coalition against the ISLAMIC State of which TURKEY looks an unwilling party.
The increasingly overt SUNNI alignment of ERDOGAN’S TURKEY is, paradoxically, contributing to its isolation, at a time when the UNITED STATES has won the support of the SUNNI ARAB powers, led by SAUDI ARABIA, in the campaign against the ISLAMIC State.

Background Information: 

RIYADH IS CONCERNED THAT IF ISLAMIC STATE ADVANCES SOUTH AND PUSHES BEYOND IRAQ’S SOUTHERN BORDER, MECCA AND MEDINA WILL BE NEXT ON ITS RADAR
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/09/saudi-arabia-islamic-state-between-iraq.html


TURKEY CONTINUES TO CHAMPION THE PAN-ISLAMIC MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

Partly, that is because ERDOGAN and his new prime minister, AHMET DAVUTOGLU, who as foreign minister was the architect of TURKEY’S eastward turn away from the EU, continue to champion the pan-ISLAMIC MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, ousted in EGYPT last year and banned across the gulf.

Background Information: 

COUP IN EGYPT CAME AS AN ADDITIONAL TREMOR TO PRIME MINISTER RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/07/turkish-leadership-demoralized.html


TURKEY'S THREE MAIN REGIONAL ADVERSARIES: THE ASSAD REGIME, THE SHIITE-LED GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ, AND THE KURD'S

But it is also because of ANKARA’S ambivalence toward the ISLAMIC State, which some in TURKEY’S government saw as a bulwark against its three main regional adversaries: the ASSAD regime, the SHIITE-led government in IRAQ, and the KURD'S.

“Their policy is making TURKEY look completely isolated,” says Hugh Pope of the International Crisis Group.

Yet there is a wide consensus that ERDOGAN and his ISLAMIST Justice and Development Party (AKP) tried and failed to take a leadership role as the turmoil of the ARAB Spring swept across the region and have ended up by infecting TURKEY’S secular republic with the sectarianism plaguing the LEVANT.

“From a zero problems policy (with neighbors) to zero neighbors,” said a headline in the leftist Evrensel newspaper in reference to the AKP policy of entente with neighboring states.
BEHLUL OZKAN, a political scientist at ISTANBUL’S Marmara University, says the ERDOGAN government has supported ISLAMIST movements in the MIDDLE EAST to establish a sphere of influence and play a leadership role.

Background Information: 

TURKEY AND THE KURD'S
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/03/turkey-and-kurds.html

KURDISH MARCH TOWARD AUTONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-syrian-policies.html

TURKEY'S GAMBLE ON KURDISTAN OIL
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html


TURKEY'S IMPERIAL FANTASY OF ESTABLISHING THE IKHWAN (MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD) BELT FROM TUNISIA TO GAZA

“When the Arab Spring started, DAVUTOGLU saw it as an opportunity for his imperial fantasy of establishing the IKHWAN (MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD) belt from TUNISIA to Gaza.

“They are obsessed with destroying the ASSAD regime. They see IS as an opportunity for TURKEY since it is fighting its enemies on three fronts: against BAGHDAD’S SHIITE-dominated leadership, against ASSAD, and the PYD, which is an affiliate of the PKK.”

Background Information: 

SECTARIANISM - “SUNNI CRESCENT” 
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html

TURKISH ISLAM

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html


ERDOGAN'S GOVERNMENT INITIAL EXPECTATION WAS THAT THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD WOULD COME TO POWER IN SYRIA.

“TURKISH officials believed a year and a half ago they could control the Jihadis but they played with fire. This was a policy of sectarianism and they got into something . . . they couldn’t control, and that is why we are here.”  said Soli Ozel, a prominent academic and commentator in ISTANBUL. 

Other commentators and TURKISH officials say WESTERN and ARAB powers that called for ASSAD to be toppled but refused to give mainstream SYRIAN rebels the weapons to do it are to blame for the rise of JIHADIS in the resulting vacuum.

“They (TURKISH officials) bet on ASSAD to fall and when they lost, instead of backing off they are doubling down,” says HAKAN ALTINAY of the Brookings Institution. “They are not the only culprits. The international community is also a culprit in this affair.”

Background Information: 

TURKISH HIGH COMMAND HAS BEEN INVOLVED IN THE RECRUITMENT OF JIHADIST MERCENARIES FROM THE OUTSET OF THE SYRIAN CRISIS IN MARCH 2011.
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/09/who-is-behind-caliphate-project.html

TURKEYS GAMBLE IN SYRIA HAS NOT PAID OFF

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/turkeys-foreign-policy-poker-game.html


THE KURDISH EQUATION 

But uppermost among ANKARA’S fears is the prospect that SYRIAN KURDS led by the PYD — newly legitimized by their alliance with the UNITED STATES — will establish a new KURDISH entity on TURKEY’S frontiers, which will incite TURKEY’S KURDS to seek self government.

In the realpolitik of all this, IS is fighting all the enemies of TURKEY — the ASSAD regime, IRAQI SHIITES and the Kurds — but the spillover effect is that it is now paying the price in terms of its vulnerability on the KURDISH question.

CENGIZ CANDAR, veteran columnist and expert on the KURDISH issue adds: “If SYRIAN KURDS are successful and establish self-rule they will set a precedent and a model for TURKEY’S KURDS, and more than 50 percent of KURDS in the world live here.

Background Information: 

ANKARA SUSPENDS PUMPING EUPHRATES’ WATER, CUTTING OFF THE WATER SUPPLY TO SYRIA AND IRAQ
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/05/turkey-and-syria-water-wars.html


TURKEY  CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO FIRES: 

The possibility of the PKK-led KURDISH insurgency inside TURKEY reviving because of ANKARA’S policy toward the SYRIAN KURD'S; and the risk that a more robust policy against the ISLAMIC State will provoke reprisal attacks that could be damage its economy and the tourist industry that provides TURKEY with around a tenth of its income.

Internationally, one veteran TURKISH diplomat fears, the ISLAMIC State “is acting as a catalyst legitimizing support for an independent KURDISH STATE not just in SYRIA but in TURKEY” at a time when leading powers have started to question TURKEY’S ideological and security affiliations with the WEST.

Sunday 26 October 2014

SYRIA AND THE IS



US, TURKEY PART WAYS OVER SYRIA


President BARACK OBAMA’S strategy in the fight against the ISLAMIC STATE in Syria gets considerable clarity with the 4-line announcement by the US Central Command that AMERICAN military aircraft have made multiple drops of weapons, ammunition and medical supplies to the KURDISH fighters defending the northern SYRIAN city of KOBANE facing the TURKISH border. 

Background Information: 
WHY IS TURKEY SUPPORTING  ISLAMIC STATE FIGHTERS IN IRAQ?

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2014/08/turkey-and-isis-comrades-in-arms.html

In sum, WASHINGTON has parted ways with ANKARA. OBAMA telephoned President RECEP ERDOGAN  and discussed “steps that could be taken to counter” the IS offensive against KOBANE. Presumably, he took ERDOGAN into confidence about the need to arm and support the KURDISH fighters in KOBANE. 



But ERDOGAN stuck to his guns and reiterated that TURKEY considered the SYRIAN KURDISH group [PYD] as every bit a “terrorist organization like the IRAQI KURDS belonging to the PKK”. He took a tough stance: “It would be very wrong for AMERICA — with whom we are allies and with whom we are together within the NATO — to expect us to say ‘yes’ after openly announcing such support for a terrorist organization. It [US] cannot expect such a thing from us and we cannot say ‘yes’ to such a thing either.” 

KURDISH EQUATION - ARMING  SYRIAN KURDS

ERDOGAN also parried on the pending issue of ANKARA making available TURKISH air bases on the SYRIAN-IRAQI border for the US operations. He said, “What are they [US] asking for with regard to INCIRLIK [air base]? That’s not clear yet. If there is something we deem appropriate, we would discuss it with our security forces and we would say ‘yes’. But if it is not appropriate, then saying ‘yes’ is not possible for us either.” (Hurriyet).

Background Information: 
TURKEY’S DREAMS OF BEING ENERGY HUB STRENGTHENED BY PKK NEGOTIATIONS?
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/turkey-and-kurds.html


Suffice to say, OBAMA made a last-ditch attempt to carry ERDOGAN along, but the endeavor failed, and he has since left the TURKISH leader behind on his own. 
To be sure, the KURDISH fighters in KOBANE are in dire straits and US supplies have become vital. Time is of the essence of the matter. 

TURKISH AGENDA: ‘REGIME CHANGE’ IN SYRIA

But there are political dimensions, too, to OBAMA’S decision to arm the SYRIAN KURDS. 

1. OBAMA has openly rejected ERDOGAN’S notion of the SYRIAN KURDS being ‘terrorists’ who allegedly enjoyed the covert backing of the SYRIAN regime. 

2. OBAMA is unwilling to link the fight against the IS with the TURKISH agenda of ‘regime change’ in SYRIA. 

3. OBAMA disfavors ERDOGAN’S pet idea of creating a ‘buffer zone’ and a ‘no-fly zone’ in SYRIA from ALEPPO northward to the TURKISH border. 

ERDOGAN’S PIPE DREAM; RIDING THE WINGS OF THE ARAB SPRING 

Indeed, OBAMA is wary of getting entangled with ERDOGAN’S pipe dream of riding the wings of ARAB Spring and bringing about a democratic transformation of the MIDDLE EAST spearheaded by the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD — under TURKISH tutelage, of course.  

Broadly speaking, the above put together would suggest that OBAMA is finessing his SYRIAN strategy to one of containment of IS in immediate terms rather than getting into grandiose plans of seeking political settlements in IRAQ and SYRIA. 

US BACKING FOR THE PYD WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY ALLIED WITH THE PKK  MIGHT HAVE CONSEQUENCES IN TURKISH - US RELATIONS 


But the interplay of the above three dimensions will still impact the future developments in a major way. The open US backing for the PYD (which is no doubt allied with the PKK and is fighting TURKEY, US’ NATO ally) will resonate all over the KURDISH homelands in IRAQ, SYRIA and TURKEY and could give fillip to the KURDISH national aspirations of self-determination. That is to say, ANKARA may soon have to grapple with a resurgent KURDISH insurgency.

TURKEY IS PAYING THE PRICE FOR ITS DUBIOUS ROLE IN FOMENTING THE CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA AND SUPPORT OF IS 


The bottom line is that TURKEY is having to pay a heavy price for its dubious role in fomenting the civil war in SYRIA over the past 3-year period and for its covert support of the IS in particular. In last week’s bid for the ‘EUROPEAN seat’ in the UN Security Council, TURKEY suffered a humiliating defeat ending with just 60 votes. TURKEY’S regional and international credibility has hit rock bottom.  

Background Information: 
TURKEYS FOREIGN POLICY POKER GAME 

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/turkeys-foreign-policy-poker-game.html
NEW US GAME PLAN FOR THE SYRIAN REGIME - IRAN

OBAMA would see that an overt TURKISH military role would trigger disquiet in the ARAB minds, given the huge backlog of OTTOMAN history in the region’s collective consciousness. However, the most important point here is as regards OBAMA’S game plan for the SYRIAN regime. Evidently, he has so far neatly sidestepped the SYRIAN regime and has gone for the IS. 
The ‘missing link’ here so far has been the IRAN nuclear deal and the removal of sanctions against IRAN, which will open the way for a US-Iranian effort to seek a political settlement in SYRIA in a near future. 

Background Information: 
TURKEYS ERRATIC FOREIGN POLICIES

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html



Meanwhile, the US-IRANIAN dealings over IRAQ have ‘matured’ over a relatively short period of time already starting with the efforts to replace former IRAQI prime minister NOURI AL-MALIKI. IRAQ became a test case of the efficacy of US-IRANIAN cooperation over issues of regional security and stability. And it stands to reason that the US is increasingly viewing IRAN as a factor of stability in IRAQ. 

US ACTION AGAINST THE SYRIAN REGIME IS FRAUGHT WITH THE DANGER OF TRIGGERING “CHAOS AND UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES” 

Interestingly, in IRAQ the US is not being prescriptive about the exact composition of an “inclusive” government. If at all, the latest appointment of a SHI’ITE politician from the BADR Organization to the post of Interior Minister in BAGHDAD and the visit by the IRAQI prime minister HAIDER AL-ABADI leading a high-powered delegation to TEHRAN  would suggest that IRAN’S influence in IRAQI affairs has if anything only increased. 
All in all, therefore, aside the profound symbolism of OBAMA’S decision to arm the SYRIAN KURDS even at the cost of annoying TURKEY, he could be “dialing back” his SYRIA strategy, realizing that any escalation of US military action against the SYRIAN regime is fraught with the danger of triggering “chaos and unintended consequences” and, therefore, a political element, which is non-existent today, is ultimately needed. 

It is only IRAN that could provide that non-existent political element kickstarting a political settlement in SYRIA — not TURKEY, not SAUDI ARABIA, not even RUSSIA. The recent IRANIAN statements at different levels of leadership (Irna, FNA) would suggest that TEHRAN is positioning itself to play such a role in SYRIA.   

By M K Bhadrakumar

Related articles regarding TURKEY:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/07/turkish-leadership-demoralized.html
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/06/turkey-in-turmoil.html
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/turkeys-double-edged-sword-policies-or.html
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkeys-chess-game.html
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/seismic-shift-in-middle-east.html
http://iwpr.net/report-news/syria-becomes-focus-iranian-turkish-rivalry
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/04/turkeys-changing-foreign-policy-stance.html
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/04/turkey.html
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2014/04/turkey-and-its-water-strategies.html

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2014/04/turkey.html


Thursday 23 October 2014

ISRAEL MUST REASSESS ITS ATTITUDE TOWARD SWORN ENEMIES


CONSIDERING A NEW STRATEGIC COURSE


By Gabi Siboni via INSS

Refreshing one’s security concept is not a simple task, but ISRAEL must undertake it, given the particularly complex regional changes. 

ISRAEL must reassess its attitude toward sworn enemies. There is more than a little historical irony in the fact that ISRAEL, a veteran of bitter ongoing conflict with the radical SHIITE bloc, including HIZBOLLAH, IRAN, and the ALAWITE regime in SYRIA, now shares an interest with this radical bloc, also known as the axis of evil. 

Related topics:

ISRAEL’S DEFENSE STRATEGY OVERHAUL
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/04/israel-blueprint-for-restructuring.html

LONG-RANGE, LARGELY CLANDESTINE AND MULTI-SERVICE MISSIONS
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/idf-israeli-defense-forces.html

"Clandestine Operations in Lebanon" 
As to stopping ISIS, ISRAEL finds itself on the same side of the equation as some of the elements of that bloc, though not with the same degree of prominence or importance, and also has common ground with the pragmatic ARAB states fighting radical elements, whether SUNNI or SHIITE. Given this sensitive state of affairs, ISRAEL must make the effort to wipe the slate of earlier preconceptions that have characterized its security policy for many years. Circumstances have changed and ISRAEL’S thinking must change accordingly.

DID THE UNITED STATES REALLY UNDERESTIMATED THE ISLAMIC STATE’S ABILITY ? 

In a television interview in late September 2014, US President BARACK OBAMA essentially admitted that the UNITED STATES had underestimated the Islamic State’s ability to operate and recruit new members, and overestimated the IRAQI army’s ability to fight the organization. Indeed, within a short period of time – almost overnight – ISIS embarked on a path to institute a new world order and managed to position and brand itself as the savior of the MUSLIM UMMAH from the chains of the oppressive WEST. Contrary to the assessment of the intelligence community in both the UNITED STATES and ISRAEL, the organization succeeded in quickly expanding the area under its influence and increasing its recruitment, and it seems to be on the brink of further successes. 

Related topics:

ISRAEL’S IRAN “WARMONGERING RHETORIC’S” ARE DECEIVING TACTICS FOR A GREATER CAUSE
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/israel-azerbaijan-and-kazakhstan_6.html

The source of its power is its radical ISLAMIC, anti-SHIA, and anti-WESTERN message. Even calling this message “nonsense,” as Obama did, reflects a flawed understanding of the potency of the enmity between the SUNNI and SHIITE camps in the MIDDLE EAST and the attraction the organization poses, which allows it – alongside its brutal military force – to seize large swaths of territory and makes any attempt to confront it difficult.

ISRAEL HAS TO REEXAMINE SOME TRADITIONAL STRATEGIC CONVENTIONS

The fact that US intelligence agencies failed to properly assess ISIS’s potential power until well into the changed reality in the Levant should sound a loud wake-up call in ISRAEL. For now, ISRAEL is not at the top of the ISIS agenda or the priorities of similar outfits, but the country cannot allow itself the luxury of waiting for the potential threat to be realized in the form of ISIS or allied operatives turning their organized or sporadic attention to direct action against it. ISRAEL must therefore reexamine some traditional strategic conventions.

Related topic:

ARE IRAN AND ISRAEL REALLY ARCHENEMIES, OR IS IT JUST A FACADE?
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/iran-and-israel-real-archenemies.html

New strategic insights should form on the basis of the possibility that the risk inherent in radical SUNNI jihadist organizations will sooner or later be turned against ISRAEL. ISRAEL is liable to find itself having to cope with ISIS and allied factions just across the country’s borders, such as in the SINAI PENINSULA, JORDAN, and the SYRIAN GOLAN HEIGHTS. Early worrisome signs of the effect of ISIS’s militant message have already been detected in the WEST BANK and even within ISRAEL proper. Therefore, ISRAEL must update its conceptual, intelligence, military, and political thinking so as to map the threat and identify a suitable response to the developing regional reality.

At the same time that ISRAEL prepares itself intelligence-wise and operationally, the country must rethink its relations with various regional parties. SHIITES in IRAQ are under ISIS attack, and in SYRIA the organization is fighting ASSAD’S army. Likewise NASRALLAH, leader of HIZBOLLAH which is fighting alongside ASSAD’S army, views ISIS as a serious threat to his own organization in particular and to SHIITES in general. The dramatic change occurring in the map of regional threats and targets justifies – even demands – an examination of new possibilities and options.



ISRAEL MUST REASSESS ITS ATTITUDE TOWARD SWORN ENEMIES

A key question concerns ISRAEL’S policy toward BASHAR AL-ASSAD’S regime. Since the start of the SYRIAN civil war, and in light of the uncompromising cruelty shown by the regime in its fight for survival against the rebel factions, many in ISRAEL’S security establishment thought ISRAEL should help topple the regime in the war-torn country. Others claimed that ASSAD’S loss of control would lead to chaos in SYRIA and the entrenchment of jihadists on ISRAEL’S border, liable to create a threat with the potential for military entanglement, a la the GAZA STRIP and the SINAI PENINSULA. However, even without ASSAD’S regime toppled and his army scattered, insurgent JABHAT AL-NUSRA forces are seizing control of parts of the SYRIAN GOLAN HEIGHTS near the ISRAELI border. Should this trend continue, ISRAEL is liable to find itself under attack, directly or incrementally, by ISIS, JABHAT AL-NUSRA, and/or other armed factions entrenching themselves in the region and filling the vacuum created by the retreat of ASSAD’S army.

Related topic:

NOT HAVING LEARNED THE LESSON FROM IRAQ, OR CALCULATED STRATEGY?
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html

The downing of the SYRIAN airplane by ISRAEL’S aerial defenses on September 23, 2014 demonstrated the need for a different type of thinking. The plane, which had accidentally penetrated the airspace over the GOLAN HEIGHTS, was on its way to attack JABHAT AL-NUSRA targets. The downing of the plane was certainly in keeping with instructions whose original rationale is self-evident. But given that fundamental changes in SYRIA’S power structure have occurred, and that it is equally obvious that the SYRIAN army has neither the inclination nor the ability to develop a military front against ISRAEL, it is necessary to ask whether that rationale is still sweepingly valid requiring automatic operative continuity. In fact, downing the plan was self-detrimental to ISRAEL’S best interests.

REFRESHING ONE’S SECURITY CONCEPT IS NOT A SIMPLE TASK, 

but ISRAEL must undertake it, given the particularly complex regional changes. ISRAEL must reassess its attitude toward sworn enemies. There is more than a little historical irony in the fact that ISRAEL, a veteran of bitter ongoing conflict with the radical SHIITE bloc, including HIZBOLLAH, IRAN, and the ALAWITE regime in SYRIA, now shares an interest with this radical bloc, also known as the axis of evil. As to stopping ISIS, ISRAEL finds itself on the same side of the equation as some of the elements of that bloc, though not with the same degree of prominence or importance, and has common ground with the pragmatic ARAB states fighting radical elements, whether SUNNI or SHIITE. Given this sensitive state of affairs, ISRAEL must make the effort to wipe the slate of earlier preconceptions that have characterized its security policy for many years. Circumstances have changed and ISRAEL’S thinking must change accordingly.

It may be possible to identify ways of covert, passive coordination with the ASSAD regime and even with HIZBOLLAH in order to fight the SUNNI JIHAD. The way to formulate understandings on active cooperation, such as intelligence sharing, needs to be considered. Hostility to ISRAEL is too deeply ingrained in the thinking of the SYRIAN regime and HIZBOLLAH; any cooperation with ISRAEL liable to come to light is impossible from their perspective. But ISRAEL could help the struggle against the radical SUNNI force by not interfering.

Related topic:

TWO “ARCH FOES” ALLIED IN OPPOSING IRAN DEAL?
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/syria-israel-and-turkey-and-iran-love.html

Another complex challenge facing ISRAEL is finding a way to help the fight against the radical SUNNI forces, indirectly and clandestinely, while avoiding damage to the necessary ongoing intelligence and operational efforts against threats to its security coming from the SHIITE bloc. The fight against HIZBOLLAH will continue in every sense: pursuing efforts to slow down the organization’s military buildup, maintaining military deterrence, foiling the organization’s attempt to demonstrate its commitment to fighting ISRAEL via terrorist attacks as a response to accusations that fighting alongside ASSAD’S forces represents a deviation from its raison d’etre, and especially continuing efforts to keep incidents such as the recent incident in the SHAB’A FARMS sector from snowballing into full escalation. The political and diplomatic battle to foil IRAN’S completion of its nuclear program is also an ongoing task that cannot and should not be conceded. And there is hardly any need to say that ISRAEL will continue to foil IRAN’S support for HAMAS and the consequent military buildup in the GAZA STRIP.

FIND COMMON GROUND IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS IN THE CONTINUOUS ISRAEL - ARAB CONFLICT 

The dilemmas ISRAEL faces after the changes of the last few years in the map of MIDDLE EAST threats and struggles are far from simple. A common enemy does not suddenly make ISRAEL and other hostile elements into friends. Nonetheless, one cannot ignore the fact that given shared challenges to ISRAEL and its enemies, ISRAEL is impelled to find common ground and ways to cooperate despite the ongoing hostility and conflict in order to decrease the risk that a threat currently posed to others will in the future be posed against it too. Automatic, inert thinking and action are liable to place ISRAEL in a very tough security position on its borders and enhance the danger that conflicts in these areas will spill over onto ISRAELI soil. Downing the SYRIAN aircraft must be viewed as a warning sign: ISRAEL can no longer afford to be a spectator on the sideline and react automatically and instinctively; rather, it must act on the basis of the idea that it must help – actively or by refraining from action – anyone fighting radical SUNNI jihadists

Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring:

As mentioned numerous times on this blog, mainstream media and to some extend even alternative media report that IRAN presents the most serious threat to ISRAEL, and that IRAN’S nuclear threat should be a concern for the entire world is mainly a convenient bargaining tool for both, ISRAEL and IRAN. In most likelihood the behind the scene scenario looks rather different. Like with AZERBAIJAN, ISRAEL may conduct secrete wheeling and dealings with the PERSIAN state, a scenario not at all impossible, since ISRAEL’S new political doctrine fosters geopolitical as well as economic alliances with non-Arab Muslim stated. After all the two countries, in the not too distant past, had not always been arch enemies. 

IRAN SOFTENS TUNE ON ISRAEL
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/iran-and-israel-improvement-in.html

AZERBAIJAN'S ISRAEL DIPLOMACY TESTS IRAN
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/israel-azerbaijan-and-iran.html

Sunday 19 October 2014

MIDDLE EAST: THE CENTENNIAL CRISIS CYCLE AND THE MIDDLE EAST



HOW THE WEST IS IMPLICATED IN THE CURRENT FIRES BURNING IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

By Meghnad Desai

The upheaval we face in the MIDDLE EAST today, properly understood, is not about ISIS.
The Islamic State's origins harken back to lines drawn by the West, leaving a deep wound in Sunni Islam’s psyche.

Background Information: 

DEMOLISHING THE “SYKES-PICOT” BORDERS AND OPENING A WAY BETWEEN “IRAQ AND SHAM (DAMASCUS SYRIA)
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2014/08/isis-saudi-arabias-concerns-that.html

In ISIS, we do not only face an extreme version of Islamism – but a direct echo of prolonged WESTERN negligence.
RUSSIA’S incursion into AFGHANISTAN was the first time the West became aware of the mess which was – and is — the MIDDLE EAST.

ISLAMISM IS A MOVEMENT AGAINST GOVERNMENTS IN MUSLIM-MAJORITY COUNTRIES MORE THAN IT IS AGAINST THE WEST. 

From PAKISTAN at one end to ALGERIA at the other, Islamist forces are undermining Muslim populations.

THE GEMAN "PROBLEM"

In August 2014, we “celebrated” the centenary of the start of the First World War. Much attention was paid to the ill-fated legacy of the VERSAILLES TREATY, which more or less led to the Second World War. The underlying “GERMAN problem” only came to an end in 1991, when all of GERMANY was at peace with EUROPE and reunited.

THE AUSTRO  - HUNGARIAN "PROBLEM" 

There was also much debate about the breakup of the AUSTRO-HUNGARIAN EMPIRE after 1918, which brought many nations to life for the first time in EUROPE. Their fate after the Second World War still occupies us to this day, even though in 1991, the liberation of EASTERN EUROPE brought a chapter of that unwinding to a positive resolution.

THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE "PROBLEM"

But there is still one chapter unfinished – and we are currently very much embroiled in it. This is the end of the OTTOMAN EMPIRE at the end of the First World War. By 1916, FRANCE and GREAT BRITAIN had signed the secret SYKES PICOT TREATY partitioning the OTTOMAN EMPIRE.


The OTTOMAN EMPEROR was also the CALIPH. Kemal Pasha, who took over TURKEY, the heart of that Empire, was an atheist and abolished the CALIPHATE. For the first time in 1,200 years, Sunni Islam was without a CALIPH. It was as if someone had abolished the Papacy.

THE PROBLEMS OF TODAY WERE BORN IN THE PAST

The upheaval we face in the MIDDLE EAST today, properly understood, is not about ISIS. It is the last unresolved problem of the First World War.
To be sure, the Islamic State or ISIS or ISIL, the “CALIPHATE,” however one calls it, harkens back to that deep wound in Sunni Islam’s psyche.

THE SYKES PICOT TREATY IS THE REAL PROBLEM OF TODAY'S MIDDLE EAST

The state boundaries drawn by the SYKES PICOT TREATY were somewhat imaginary — though the territories known as IRAQ or SYRIA have been known even before they became provinces of the Empire. The people chosen to be the kings of these “countries” were of equally dubious merit, as the memoirs of LAWRENCE OF ARABIA tell us.

Lest we forget, the KURDS were left unhappy at having been partitioned between three newly designated countries –TURKEY, IRAQ and SYRIA. In the case of SYRIA, IRAQ and EGYPT, these kings were succeeded by secular governments. The dream then became a UNITED ARAB entity under one leader.

CREATION OF ISRAEL - BALFOUR DECLARATION - A PROBLEM

It was the advent of ISRAEL in 1948 — itself a result of the BALFOUR DECLARATION during WWI and the ARAB rejection of it — which set off the first cycle of wars in the MIDDLE EAST.

After three defeats (in 1948, 1967 and 1973), the secular PAN-ARAB parties were in disgrace. The people of the region realized that the answer to their problems was not to be found in socialism or BA’ATHISM.


Religion beckoned as the fall-back answer. As if to add oil to the proverbial fire, the oil shock of 1973/4 greatly enriched the SAUDIS and they used those funds to propagate their radical brand of Islam as the only path.

The 40 years since 1973 have been unsettling for the region. The revival of Shia Islam in IRAN and the overthrow of the monarchy in 1979 led to a ten-year war between IRAQ and IRAN. This was soon followed by the takeover of KUWAIT by IRAQ and the 1991 war sanctioned by the UN.

ISLAMISM IS A MOVEMENT AGAINST GOVERNMENTS IN MUSLIM-MAJORITY COUNTRIES MORE THAN IT IS AGAINST THE WEST

That did nothing to settle the underlying issues going back to WWI. Particularly crucial in this historic context is that fact that the U.S. and UK armies failed to make any post-war settlement which would have addressed the issue of making a nation out of IRAQ.

The Shia majority took their revenge for decades of oppression — and answered in kind under Nouri Al-Maliki’s government.
RUSSIA’S incursion into AFGHANISTAN, presumed to be a late footnote to the Cold War, was the first time we in the WEST became aware of the mess which was – and is — the MIDDLE EAST.


It was also a sign, though we did not see it that way, of a deep crisis in Sunni Islam. Islamism is a movement against governments in Muslim-majority countries more than it is against the WEST. Its advocates want sharia-compliant governments everywhere there is a Muslim state.
From PAKISTAN at one end to ALGERIA at the other and now extending southward to NIGERIA and SUDAN, Islamist forces are undermining Muslim populations and their governments.

HISTORY REVEALS THE FOLLIES OF THE WEST

Once we part with our own cultural chauvinism (in the form of a Eurocentric view of modern history) and look at a centennial arc in a wider context, we realize that we are now stuck with the OTTOMAN EMPIRE and its decline.

But this is no time for any finger-pointing or cultural disdain. Any sound analysis – even as simple and undeniable as looking at cause and effect — points to the West’s key role in this.

The boundaries between SYRIA and IRAQ are still fluid because key powers did not solve the issue. SYRIA has faced a revolt against Assad, which he has successfully stalled at a great cost in human lives. Refugees have flooded into TURKEY, JORDAN and LEBANON.

Now, in ISIS, we do not only face an extreme version of Islamism – but also a direct echo of prolonged WESTERN negligence, if not irresponsibility. Hard though it may be to imagine for Western minds “trained” on the peril and radicalism of Al Qaeda, ISIS rejects that force as not pure enough.

ARTIFICIAL BOUNDARIES - SYKES PICOT TREATY 

It is as painful as it is logical that ISIS has parked itself in the large territory between IRAQ and SYRIA since the boundaries have been artificial anyway. By reviving the CALIPHATE, it has addressed the deep wound in the Sunni psyche.


The WEST is responding — but only hesitantly so (and, once again, more from its own selfish, short termist perspective than the crisis demands). There is a lot of latent and even open dislike of Muslims in the WEST. It would be cynical to say “let them kill each other.” But that would be neither wise nor prudent. We have a humanitarian crisis which requires a military response as much as relief operations.

This may be the final unsolved problem of the First World War — but maybe we can solve it within a century of 1918. Then, the pernicious cycle of collective irresponsibility that unloaded itself in the famed guns of August (1914) would finally have come to a long-overdue close.

Friday 17 October 2014

OIL AS A WMO: THE WEST’S WEAPON OF MASS OBEDIENCE?



WILL LOWER OIL PRICES DRIVE SAUDI ARABIA AND RUSSIA TO PURSUE SENSIBLE REFORMS AT HOME AT LONG LAST?

By Stephan Richter

Ever since OPEC’s oil embargo in 1973 and the resulting oil price shock, WESTERN nations have had to deal with the vagaries of oil price induced inflationary pressures and/or significant GDP growth dampeners.  Conversely, a range of other nations – primarily the likes of SAUDI ARABIA, RUSSIA and IRAN – were put into the position of coasting along nicely, irrespective of their domestic failings and shortcomings.

PUTIN’S ride in RUSSIA, for example, is best explained by the fact that, unlike BORIS YELTSIN before him, he never had to deal with cataclysmic declines in the oil price. And SAUDI ARABIA’S preferred “game” – buying off its young men with cushy state-sector do-nothing jobs so as to stave off any revolutionary instincts – very much depends on a high oil price.

BUYING OFF THE PEOPLE

In fact, given the costly welfare state the SAUDI princes are running to numb their undereducated, unproductive masses, they have great reason to worry about their physical safety in their princely estates – if the oil price goes down too much.
And that decline is precisely what may be in the offing now. For the moment, it still seems as if the oil market – like the stock market – can’t quite decide whether or not it should go into a sustained downward spin.

But the writing is certainly on the wall – and it makes such global entities as the KREMLIN and RIYADH very nervous.
As well it should. The cynical strategy of these “leaders” to rule by mass bribing of their people, while not reforming their countries in any useful manner to make them productive citizens in the 21st century, may well come to haunt them very soon.

It is said, for example, that the SAUDI welfare state gets into budgetary troubles once the oil price goes below $97 a barrel. To be sure, the SAUDIS have plenty of money stashed away somewhere that they can infuse now in their “let’s-prevent-a-revolution” games.But some oil prices are now as low as $85. That’s going to hurt for real in a short amount of time.

WESTERN TEMPTATIONS

At a time of great geopolitical upheaval as now, there is a temptation for WESTERN minds to lift their collective hopes that these pariahs are becoming more malleable, reasonable and reform-oriented.
Compared to the SAUDIS, the RUSSIANS have a clear advantage: Their population is so despondent and aging that it has next to none of the young SAUDI males’ sense of dissatisfaction.
The RUSSIAN people are conditioned by a long history of being treated like mules by their leaders, irrespective of the latters’ ideological stripes. After a while, that has a real impact on a deep-seated sense of passivity and hopelessness.


The SAUDIS are at the opposite end of the demographic curve. The average age of their population is 25.3 years, compared to RUSSIA’S 38 years. And the SAUDI princes’ efforts to rely on their oppressive domestic intelligence services to keep their people in line will only work for so long.
Once young men become truly restive, there is little state power to hold them back. It stands to reason that the SAUDI princes have an ominous sense of their present fragility, which already hits at all their border regions.
Should these developments make us WESTERNERS rejoice? Can we realistically hope that the RUSSIAN and SAUDI leaderships wise up now?
The big white hope is that, on the global stage, low oil prices are a WMO – a Weapon of Mass Obedience. (Of course, those same low oil prices are already driving up U.S. consumers to buy SUVs once again…)

VOLUNTARY REGIME CHANGE NEEDED

The problem as regards the SAUDIS and the RUSSIANS is that both nations are poorly prepared – no, unprepared – for an internal “regime change,” even if that term only refers to structural economic reforms and better education policies.
The past addiction to, and presence of, a high oil price had the effect of these (mis-)leaderships believing they were inoculated against the need to do the inevitable. In other words, they hope to avoid what everybody else has to do –pursue sensible economic reforms and advance the home population’s human resource potential.

As things stand, the low oil price may well have the opposite effect of what WESTERNERS are currently hoping for. Rather than creating more obedience – not toward “the West” itself, but the principles of modern civilization, including the rule of law – despair and obstinacy may reign supreme.

When faced with desperate circumstances, desperate leaders in certain cultures rather have a tendency to circle their wagons that much harder than in the “good” times.

DESPERADOS IN THE MAKING

The SAUDI and RUSSIAN leaders are cut from a fundamentally different cloth than CHINA’S. The latter certainly have their drawbacks and challenges too. But CHINA – under DENG XIAOPING at first, and then under the leaders that followed him – made a fundamental, top-to-bottom bet that it had to reinvent itself.
Perhaps that stark departure from its very ideologized past was facilitated by CHINA not being able to rely on raw material riches.
But for RUSSIA and SAUDI ARABIA, having those riches only meant that dealing with pressing human realities was postponed, not superfluous.

However, it is precisely because of the devastating tendency of both leaderships to believe that their oil riches could lull them into safety that they can now be counted upon to become that much more desperate.

The odds are that lower oil prices, rather than anything we may wish for at this juncture, will turn into a WMI – a weapon of mass irrationality – when it comes to RUSSIA and SAUDI ARABIA.

Wednesday 15 October 2014

USA: GEOPOLITICS OF A WORLD POWER


HOW TO LOSE A WAR: WHEN YOUR ALLIES AID YOUR ENEMIES 

"It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the foreign world."  
- George Washington, Farewell Address   

“Be careful of your enemy once and of your friend a thousand times, for a double crossing friend knows more evil.” 
- Arabic Proverb 

Via Eurasia Review

“FREE SYRIAN ARMY” WAS NOTHING MORE THAN A QATARI MYTH

Recently, ISIS established an agreement with moderate-in-comparison SYRIAN rebels to not fight each other so that they can focus on destroying the SYRIAN government.1 As early as 2013,  we had already established that nearly half of the SYRIAN rebels were jihadis affiliated with al-Qaeda, Jabhat al Nursra and ISIS. As CHARLES LISTER observed, "The insurgency is now dominated by groups which have at least an Islamist viewpoint on the conflict. The idea that it is mostly secular groups leading the opposition is just not borne out."2  In retrospect, the “Free Syrian Army” was nothing more than “a Qatari myth.”3 Regardless, on September 18, the Senate passed a redundant bill supporting Obama’s plan to fund, train and arm the mysterious ‘moderate’ SYRIAN rebels –ostensibly to battle the Islamic State and the SYRIAN government. Displaying his characteristic indifference to reality, upon the bill’s passing, Obama declared, "When you harm our citizens, when you threaten the UNITED STATES, when you threaten our allies, it doesn't divide us, it unites us."4  

Background Information: In October 2012 we wrote:

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT “FOREIGN FIGHTERS” ARE INVOLVED—MOSTLY ISLAMIC JIHADISTS FROM SAUDI ARABIA, IRAQ, LIBYA, JORDAN, AND TURKEY
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/10/syria-and-dogs-of-war.html

PROXY WAR WAGED BY THE GULF COUNTRIES AGAINST IRAN AND OTHER NON-SUNNIS 

Even by Obama’s standards, this was a bit rich. After all, it was ISIS, which benefitted greatly from SAUDI policy in IRAQ and SYRIA,5 that murdered AMERICAN journalist JAMES FOLEY only four weeks earlier –reminding the world that AMERICA’S most dominant ally has been supporting jihadi groups that not only terrorize innocent people in AFRICA, EUROPE, and the MIDDLE EAST, but more famously, AMERICANS themselves–as the unprecedented terrorist attacks of 9/11 show. Moreover, the UNITED STATES and its allies have already been funding, training and arming the SYRIAN rebels from the outset of the civil war –a proxy war waged by the GULF countries against IRAN and other non-Sunnis in the region.6  
   
SAUDI ARABIA of course, is not the only ally which supports violent jihadi groups on an international scale. Other allies that aid and abet terrorists and foreign fighters include QATAR, TURKEY, and KUWAIT -with no sanction whatsoever from the UNITED STATES. On the contrary, they enjoy generous political and economic solidarity, shape AMERICAN foreign policy and have successfully subverted the AMERICAN military into a kind of foreign legion of the GULF states, drawing the UNITED STATES into perpetual wars against governments and nations that pose no security threats to AMERICA. Such wars not only squander American lives, resources and reputation but also distract and impede the UNITED STATES from comprehensively combating the genuine security threats of international jihad.  

ISIS HAS BEEN A SAUDI PROJECT
  
Over two hundred years ago, THOMAS JEFFERSON stated: "Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations-entangling alliances with none."7  In this context, it is crucial to assess the nature of AMERICAN alliances today and rectify relationships that threaten AMERICAN security and interests.  To truly combat this threat, it is important to first review the nature and status of AMERICAN alliances and second, to understand how the UNITED STATES’ own democratic deficits allowed it to become a leader not of its own interests but a military and foreign policy tool of its allies –a subordinate hatchet man to its powerful friends rather than an equal partner representing its own interests and principles. 

SAUDI ARABIA 
   
“ISIS has been a SAUDI project.”  -Qatari official.8’  
“If you can kill a disbelieving AMERICAN or EUROPEAN…rely upon Allah, and kill him” - ABU MOHAMMED AL-ADNANI, ISIS Spokesman    

Only a day before the bill was passed, on September 17, 2014,  MUFID ELFGEEH, a naturalized AMERICAN citizen from YEMEN, was indicted by a grand jury for attempting to buy two handguns, recruit fighters for ISIS, kill members of the U.S. military and the Shia community, and for illegally possessing firearms silencers. Authorities said ELFGEEH also described his plan to go on a shooting spree of returning U.S. military members to support ISIS.9   Ironically enough, the UNITED STATES may indict its own citizens for supporting terrorist groups like ISIS, but studiously refuses to indict its own allies for doing the same.  In one short year, ISIS made remarkable strides both in SYRIA and neighboring IRAQ, all but marginalizing the rebels and establishing a strong base in both countries. ISIS, an al-Qaeda off-shoot that later eclipsed al-Qaeda and is now competing with it, owes its rapid expansion in no small part to the aid and arms provided to them by the UNITED STATES, SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR and TURKEY under the umbrella of the “FREE SYRIAN ARMY.”10 

Background Information: In June 2011 we wrote:

TUMBLING OF REGIME COULD BE USED BY FUNDAMENTALISTS TO SEIZE POWER
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/06/assad-dilemma.html

Recently, Conflict Armament Research revealed that weapons ostensibly intended for ‘moderate rebel groups’ found their way to ISIS who disposed of “significant quantities” of US-made small arms including M16 assault rifles. It also reported that anti-tank rockets used by ISIS in SYRIA were identical to M79 rockets transferred by SAUDI ARABIA to forces operating under the FREE SYRIAN ARMY umbrella in 2013. According to Conflict Armament Research, the weapons were either captured or acquired by former FSA fighters as they joined ISIS.11   

Access to arms is not the only manner by which SAUDI ARABIA has helped organizations like ISIS to flourish. In 2007, STUART LEVEY, the Under-Secretary of the US Treasury in charge of monitoring and impeding terror financing said that when it came to al-Qaeda, “if I could somehow snap my fingers and cut off the funding from one country, it would be SAUDI ARABIA.” He also pointed out that not a single person identified by the UNITED STATES or the UNITED NATIONS as funder for terrorism had been prosecuted by the SAUDIS.12 Two years later, Wikileaks revealed that Secretary of State HILLARY CLINTON wrote how "donors in SAUDI ARABIA constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide…SAUDI ARABIA remains a critical financial support base for al-Qa’ida, the Taliban, LeT [Lashkar-e-Taiba in PAKISTAN] and other terrorists groups.” CLINTON also pointed out that when SAUDI ARABIA engaged in that rare act against al-Qaeda, it was as a domestic threat and not against its activities abroad.13

To this day, there has been no stem to the flow of terrorist financing despite the fact that in SAUDI ARABIA, as well as in other GULF countries, it is difficult for citizens to provide funds to foreign Islamic causes without government approval. As recently as June, 2014, U.S. Treasury Secretary JACOB J. 
LEW said that fighting terror financing from the GULF remains an uphill battle. Moreover, “even small amounts of money that get through have a very substantial impact.”  For example, it is estimated that the cost of keeping a fighter in the field in YEMEN and SYRIA is only between $10 to $50 dollars a day. According to THEODORE KARASIK, “terrorist labor expenses are low…Fighters with ISIL and in YEMEN aren’t in it for the money. They have a cause, and religious fervor. Plus, the ability to garner battlefield experience is invaluable.”14 

SAUDI ARABIA HAS BEEN THE OFFICIAL SPONSOR OF SUNNI SALAFISM [ANOTHER TERM FOR WAHHABISM] ACROSS THE GLOBE

This ‘religious fervor’ that converts young men from all over the world into suicide bombers, oppressors and mass murderers has long been sponsored by SAUDI ARABIA, who have thus far spent over hundreds of billions on radical madrassas and mosques where impressionable Muslims are indoctrinated into WAHHABI jihad.15 Churning out a steady supply of enemies to the UNITED STATES, ED HUSAIN, a former Islamist activist, explains:   
“Over more than two decades, SAUDI ARABIA has lavished around $100 billion or more on the worldwide promotion of the violent, intolerant and crudely puritanical WAHHABIST sect of Islam that the ruling royal family espouses… Al Qaeda, the Islamic State in IRAQ and SYRIA, Boko Haram, the Shabab and others are all violent Sunni Salafi groupings…For five decades, SAUDI ARABIA has been the official sponsor of Sunni Salafism [another term for Wahhabism] across the globe.”  

Background Information: 

SAUDI ARABIA - NERVE CENTER OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISM
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/saudi-arabia-origin-of-wahhabism.html

SAUDI ARABIA: ARMING THE SYRIAN REBELS IS AN EXCELLENT IDEA
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/08/saudi-arabias-proxy-war.html

These Salafist groups, according to Husain, “have been lavishly supported by the SAUDI government, which has appointed emissaries to its embassies in Muslim countries who proselytize for Salafism.”16 Of course, the most famous group of Salafis are the nineteen hijackers of 9/11, fifteen of whom were SAUDI ARABIAN citizens. In the opinion of Senator BOB GRAHAM, the co-chairman of the official 9/11 inquiry and former chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, “the failure to shine a full light on SAUDI actions and particularly its involvement in 9/11 has contributed to the SAUDI ability to continue to engage in actions that are damaging to the US – and in particular their support for Isis.” Commenting on BUSH’S role in keeping information regarding SAUDI complicity secret, Senator BOB GRAHAM illustrates the self- defeating nature of U.S. alliances today: “It’s as if the President’s loyalty lay more with SAUDI ARABIA than with AMERICA’S safety.”17 Following the tradition of his predecessor, President OBAMA has yet to publish the redacted twenty-eight pages of the 9/11 Commission Report that allegedly implicate SAUDI involvement in 911 –despite promising to do so in his re-election campaign.18  

KUWAIT
  
Since the first GULF War, Salafists have enjoyed a strong foothold in KUWAIT, which is now described as a WESTERN UNION outlet for SYRIAN mujahideen.  According to ZOLTAN PALL:  

‘In the past two decades the different KUWAITI Salafi groups have been among the most important bankrollers of the Salafi movement worldwide. KUWAITI Salafi charities and individual donors are financing the building and maintenance of thousands of Salafi mosques and other institutions worldwide. The reach of KUWAITI Salafi groups increased after the Arab Spring, when they became prominent among the main sponsors of the SYRIAN rebel groups.”19  


Without mincing his words, DAVID S. COHEN, the Treasury Under Secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence points out, “our ally KUWAIT has become the epicentre for fundraising for terrorist groups in SYRIA” and that “the KUWAITIS could be doing a lot more on this issue.”20 

KUWAIT HAS EMERGED AS A FINANCING AND ORGANIZATIONAL HUB FOR CHARITIES AND INDIVIDUALS SUPPORTING SYRIA’S MYRIAD REBEL GROUPS

COHEN also says that KUWAIT posed the region’s biggest problem of financing linked to mujahideen in SYRIA while AMERICAN pressure on KUWAIT remained largely fruitless.21 ANDREW TABLER, senior fellow at the WASHINGTON Institute for Near East Policy conceded, ‘Everybody knows the money is going through KUWAIT and that it’s coming from the ARAB Gulf...KUWAIT’S banking system and its money changers have long been a huge problem because they are a major conduit for money to extremist groups in SYRIA and now IRAQ.”22 A report by Brookings asserts that: “Over the last two and a half years, KUWAIT has emerged as a financing and organizational hub for charities and individuals supporting SYRIA’S myriad rebel groups… Today, there is evidence that KUWAITI donors have backed rebels who have committed atrocities and who are either directly linked to al-Qaeda or cooperate with its affiliated brigades on the ground.”23 GHANIM AL-MTEIRI, a former soldier in the KUWAITI Army and a fundraiser for the al-Nusra Front, explains his stance like this: “Once upon a time we cooperated with the AMERICANS in IRAQ… Now we want to get BASHAR out of SYRIA, so why not cooperate with Al Qaeda?”24 By the dint of KUWAITI inaction, it appears that the government shares this mentality as well.   

QATAR   

“That's essentially what QATAR has long offered its friends: a platform, with access to money, media, and political capital. WASHINGTON has so far played along, but the question is whether the UNITED STATES is actually getting played.”  
- Elizabeth Dickinson on QATAR’S relationship with its jihadi friends.25   

If ISIS is SAUDI ARABIA’S “project,” Jabhat al Nusra/al Qaeda is QATAR’S own investment in what is a double-pronged attack from the GULF against SYRIA on their road to IRAN. DAVID COHEN, the U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence describes QATAR as a “permissive jurisdiction” for donors funding foreign jihadi fighters in SYRIA.26 According to a senior QATARI official, QATAR’S military and financial largesse towards Jabhat al-Nusra is so integral that he says he can identify al-Nusra commanders simply by the blocks they control in various SYRIAN cities.27 DANIEL BYMAN, of the Brookings Institute points out: 

“It’s often individual Qataris, some with government links, who are providing the funding for jihadists. But that doesn’t mean you can absolve the government…They have not put significant barriers in the way of this kind of thing – and a lot of people believe the government has, in fact, allowed it to happen.”28 
To illustrate, QATAR has also played a game of  “Catch and Release” with individuals wanted by their allies for involvement in terrorism. For example, in a GUARDIAN article titled “How QATAR is Funding the Rise of Islamist Extremists,” it was revealed that Ibrahim al-Bakr, a 37 year old QATARI identified by the US treasury as a key link between al-Qaeda’s leadership in PAKISTAN and GULF financiers, was briefly jailed “for his involvement in a jihadist network” only to be released after he promised “not to conduct terrorist activity in QATAR.” 

QATAR COMPETING WITH SAUDI ARABIA FOR REGIONAL INFLUENCE, YET UNITED IN ITS ANTI-SHIA GOALS

Upon his release, al-Bakr promptly joined a cell that planned to attack US military bases in QATAR.29 On August 20, QATAR’S barely veiled support for terrorist groups finally led the GERMAN Development Minister GERD MUELLER to openly accuse QATAR of financing the Islamic State militants: "This kind of conflict, this kind of a crisis always has a history ... The ISIS troops, the weapons - these are lost sons, with some of them from IRAQ...You have to ask who is arming, who is financing ISIS troops. The keyword there is QATAR - and how do we deal with these people and states politically?"30  

ISLAM VERSUS CHRISTIANS
SYRIA - SUNNI MONARCHIES VERSUS SHIITES AND ALAWITES?
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/12/food-for-though.html

Competing with SAUDI ARABIA for regional influence yet united in its anti-Shia goals, for years, QATAR has supported Islamist groups around the region by providing safe haven, diplomatic mediation, financial aid and even weapons.31 Aside from LIBYA and SYRIA, QATAR’S network of proxy militaries also includes Taliban insurgents, SOMALI Islamists, and SUDANESE rebels.32  Due to the stage managing of foreign terrorists by GULF countries, LIBYA, like IRAQ before it and SYRIA today, are three countries that have transformed from viable states with considerable women’s rights to becoming the ‘Woodstock of terrorist scumbags.’33 Even AQIM  and Boko Haram34 acquired weapons from  LIBYA,35 where mujahideen were likewise empowered by the GULF axis to wage war against the LIBYAN state until it is destroyed,36 leaving a vacuum for more Islamist fighters and further foreign military intervention from the GULF and other countries.37 

It was these very same mujahideen who assassinated Ambassador CHRIS STEVENS, who may or may not have been smuggling weapons from LIBYA to rebels in SYRIA.38  Despite QATAR’S foreign policy of funding enemies of the UNITED STATES and visiting destruction on nations via their proxies, the State Department describes  QATAR as "a valuable partner to the UNITED STATES" and plays a positive and "influential role in the region through a period of great transformation. Together, we support progress, stability and prosperity in the region."39 In light of QATAR’S sponsorship of extremist groups, such a KAFKAESQUE assessment of the AMERICAN-QATARI alliance by the State Department itself points to a flawed and confused political environment in WASHINGTON.   

TURKEY   - DIRECTLY SUPPORTED JABHAT AL NUSRA

Ignoring the UNITED STATES, TURKEY, a member of NATO, has directly supported Jabhat al Nusra,  promoting it as the most effective force against the SYRIAN government and previously complaining that its designation as a terrorist organization was “premature.’40 Former U.S. ambassador to ANKARA FRANCIS RICCIARDONE told journalists that TURKISH authorities work with Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda offshoot, as well as hardline Salafi Islamist groups such as Ahrar al-Sham. MR RICCIARDONE said that the TURKS refused to close their borders to the groups: "We ultimately had no choice but to agree to disagree… The TURKS frankly worked with groups for a period, including al-Nusra, whom we finally designated as [being groups] we're not willing to work with."41 From the beginning of the SYRIAN uprising, TURKEY allowed its borders to be used as a conduit for aid, weapons and volunteers heading to support SYRIAN rebels whose status as "moderate" or extremists had not been distinguished.42 


Background Information:

KURDISH EQUATION
TURKEY’S DREAMS OF BEING ENERGY HUB STRENGTHENED BY PKK NEGOTIATIONS?
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/turkey-and-kurds.html

KURDISH MARCH TOWARD AUTONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-syrian-policies.html

TURKEY'S GAMBLE ON KURDISTAN OIL
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html

TURKEY WILL TAKE MILITARY ACTION IF THE SYRIAN KURDS MAKE MOVES TOWARD AUTONOMY & TURKEY – SYRIA - WATER DISPUTE (1989)
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/turkeys-foreign-policy-poker-game.html

TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY STANCE 
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/04/turkeys-changing-foreign-policy-stance.html

WITHOUT THE TURKS,THIS REVOLUTION WOULDN'T HAVE STARTED

Abu Abdallah, a mover and shaker who transports arms, money and humanitarian aid for the SYRIAN rebel explains how AMERICA’S allies can shape AMERICAN foreign policy:  

"‘We reached a point in the fighting, in spring 2012, when we needed proper support. We needed heavy machine guns, real weapons. Money was never an issue: how much do you want? Fifty million dollars, a hundred million dollars – not a problem. But heavy weapons were becoming hard to find: the TURKS – and without them this revolution wouldn’t have started – wanted the AMERICANS to give them the green light before they would allow us to ship the weapons. We had to persuade SAAD AL-HARIRI, RAFIC HARIRI’S son and a former prime minister, to go to put pressure on the SAUDIS, to tell them: “You abandoned the Sunnis of IRAQ and you lost a country to IRAN. If you do the same thing again you won’t only lose SYRIA, but LEBANON with it.”’ The idea was that the SAUDIS in turn would pressure the AMERICANS to give the TURKS the green light to allow proper weapons into the country."43 

ISIS HAS  FOUND A FERTILE RECRUITING GROUND  IN THE SUBURBS OF ISTANBUL

Background Information: 

DIVIDED ENTITIES
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/07/sunni-versus-shia-middle-easts-new.html

WAHHABI SAUDIS
The MIDDLE EAST is pervaded and increasingly infected by the sectarian rivalry between the SHIITE PERSIANS and the WAHHABI SAUDIS, who are now fighting proxy wars all over the region. 
At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html

TURKEY AND SYRIA: AN UNDECLARED STATE OF WAR
Sectarianism - “Sunni crescent” 
At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html

Today, ISIS has also found a fertile recruiting ground  in the suburbs of ISTANBUL.44 According to the NEW YORK Times, "one of the biggest source of (ISIS) recruits is neighboring TURKEY" with around 1,000 TURKS having  joined ISIS.45 On September 22, 2014, ERDOGAN also revealed that "six thousand foreign fighters have entered TURKEY" despite being "banned."46  TURKEY, like the UNITED STATES, is not immune from the blowback stoked by their mutual GULF allies and the ill-conceived mimicking of their policies: currently, TURKEY has deployed soldiers on their SYRIAN border in the face ISIS’s rapid advance and will likely join in direct military operations in SYRIA and IRAQ47  

SELF-DEFEATING NATURE OF AMERICAN DECISION- MAKING IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Writing in Foreign Affairs over four decades ago, DAVID FROMKIN, author of A Peace to End All Peace, explains,  
‘Contrary to what appears a widespread misapprehension, there is no outstanding de jure commitment by the UNITED STATES, whether by treaty or otherwise, to go to war in defense of any foreign nation or nations whatsoever. A review of our alliance commitments has shown that we have no legal obligations to defend our allies, but that we do have substantial political and military commitments to friendly nations throughout the world.”48 

The key then, is to determine which nation is friendly and which is not. Needless to say, nations that create, nurture, fund and arm your designated enemies do not qualify as ‘friendly,’ even when making allowances for ‘real politics’ and the constraints of economic necessity. The GULF strategy of allowing ISIS to flourish until a demand arises that something must be done, has proven to be an especially brilliant backdoor for the GULF countries to insert themselves overtly in SYRIA because the airstrikes against ISIS are bound to be ineffective, which will inevitably lead to boots on the ground –mostly AMERICAN boots that is. According to LINA KHATIB, the director of Carnegie MIDDLE EAST Center in BEIRUT notes:  

“Before the coalition's campaign began, ISIS bases in Raqqa and elsewhere were evacuated and the group's members went underground. The raids that have been conducted to date have led to little actual damage to ISIS' military capability, according to one of my informants on the ground there. If anything, they have played right into the hands of its strategy.”49 

SYRIA, ISRAEL, AND TURKEY AND IRAN: A LOVE-HATE QUADRANGLE
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/05/syria-israel-and-turkey-and-iran-love.html

TAREK FATEH, author of Chasing a Mirage: The Tragic Illusion of an Islamic State concurs: “This was not a coalition that will defeat ISIS; it was a coalition that will end up reinforcing Islamic State as the one true answer to the crimes being committed against the ARAB people by its own leaders.”50 Remarkably, the UNITED STATES also agreed to SAUDI ARABIA’S plan to host training camps for SYRIAN rebels,51 despite the likely consequence of repeating this policy.  Capturing this self-defeating nature of AMERICAN decision- making in the MIDDLE EAST, the US Central Command confirms that the UNITED STATES has already blown up over forty of the Humvees they supplied to the IRAQI military. 

The U.S. Defense Department comments how "in some cases, we have seen instances of ISIL capturing and employing U.S.-made equipment…When we've seen these terrorists employing this equipment, we've sought to eliminate that threat." According to TODD HARRISON, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, the U.S. is sending $30,000-bombs to eliminate these armored vehicles, which each cost approximately $250, 000, depending on what it is equipped with.52  

Speaking to Foreign Policy, JEAN-LOUIS BRUGUIÈRE, the former head of the EU and U.S. Treasury Department's joint Terrorist Finance Tracking Program says, "The U.S. has the tools to monitor state and state-linked transfers to extremist groups. But intelligence is one thing and the other is how you react…What kind of political decision is the U.S. really able to make against states financing terrorism?"53 As vile and deserving as ISIS is of any military action against it, there has been no discussion regarding holding any of its allies accountable for supporting jihadi organizations that the UNITED STATES is now expending its resources fighting against. 

WHY IS THE UNITED STATES IN SYRIA IN THE FIRST PLACE?

Likewise, there has been no discussion regarding the most fundamental of questions: Why is the UNITED STATES in SYRIA in the first place? How and why did it allow itself to be complicit and engaged in this cyclical and perpetual imbroglio in the MIDDLE EAST? What are the long-term consequences and likely outcome of this bombing? Which other countries/groups in the region are better equipped to fight ISIS? In the same spirit, AMERICAN politicians who lobbied for foreign policies that aided and abetted these jihadi organizations as well as cooperation with passive-aggressive allies have thus far escaped any public scrutiny–scrutiny an ordinary AMERICAN citizen would be subject to. 

Background Information: 

EX-CIA CHIEF: ASSAD WIN MAY BE SYRIA'S BEST OPTION
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/12/syria.html

US MILITARY INTERVENTION
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/08/us-military-intervention-in-syrian.html

Speaking to CNN, retired general WESLEY CLARK says, "The SAUDIS have for years funded extremism. Their money's all over the region…The SAUDI monarchy has bought billions of dollars' worth of U.S. weapons over the years and funneled them to extremist groups…It can't be exporting extremism and at the same time ask the UNITED STATES to protect it."54   
Witnessing the absurdity and disastrous foreign policy of the UNITED STATES since 9/11, some have attributed these series of failures to the government’s “lacking intelligence and intelligence.”55 This is not entirely accurate or fair. The foreign policy disasters are the result of a larger political system that allows AMERICAN leaders and elite to prioritize the foreign policy objectives of its unfriendly allies over the interests of its own constituents. In this context, the UNITED STATES must review to whom and why it is committed and utilize and act upon their vast intelligence resources in a manner that will serve the interests of their own country rather than the interests of a select group of foreigners and their local representatives. 

BACKGROUND INFORMATION: 

TURKEYS ERRATIC FOREIGN POLICIES at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html
and
TURKEY WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO THE RESOLUTION OF THE SYRIAN CRISIS IF IT COULD BRING ITSELF TO RISE ABOVE THE SECTARIAN CONSIDERATIONS THAT HAVE DICTATED ITS REGIME CHANGE POLICY IN SYRIA at: 
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-syrian-policies.html

DRAWING SYMPATHY FROM ARAB COUNTRIES at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/turkeys-middle-east-chess-game.html

Endnotes

1  Akbar Shahid Ahmed and Ryan Grim. “ISIS Strikes Deal With Moderate Syrian Rebels: Reports.” The Huffington Post. 12 September 2014.  2  Ben Farmer. “Syria: Nearly Half Rebel Fighters are Jihadists or Hardline Islamists, Says IHS Jane's Report.” The Telegraph. 15 September 2013.  33  Pepe Escobar. “Operation Tomohawk the Caliph” Asia Times. 24 September 2014.  4  Patricia Zengerle  and David Lawder. “U.S. Congress Approves Arming Syrian Rebels, Funding Government.” Reuters. 18 September 2014.  5  Patrick Cockburn. “Iraq crisis: How Saudi Arabia helped Isis take over the north of the country.” The Independent 13 July 2014. See Also: “Maliki: Saudi and Qatar at War Against Iraq.” Al Jazeera. 9 March 2014. See Also: “Iraqi PM Maliki says Saudi, Qatar openly funding violence in Anbar.” Reuters. 9 March 2014. 
6  Seymour Hersh. “The Red Line and the Rat Line.” The London Review of Books. 17 April 2014.  See Also: Patrick Cockburn. “MI6, the CIA and Turkey's rogue game in Syria.”The Independent. 13 April 2014. See Also: As’ad AbuKhalil. “The 8 Proxy Wars Going On in Syria Right Now.” The Huffingtom Post.  24 September 2014.  
7  David Fromkin. “Entagling Alliances.” Foreign Affairs.  July 1970.  8  Steve Clemons. 'Thank God for the Saudis': ISIS, Iraq, and the Lessons of Blowback” The Atlantic. 23 June 2014.  9  Pete Williams. “Rochester Man Mufid A. Elfgeeh Accused of Supporting ISIS Militants.” NBC News.  17 September 2014.  10  Ernesto Londoño and Greg Miller. “CIA Begins Weapons Delivery to Syrian Rebels.” The Washington Post. 11 September, 2013 11  Kevin Boyd. “Remember Those ‘Moderate’ Syrian Rebels That The U.S. Armed? ISIS Got Some of Those Weapons Too.” IJReview. 8 September 2014.   12  Patrick Cockburn. “Al-Qa’ida, the Second Act: Is Saudi Arabia Regretting its Support for Terrorism?” The Independent. 17 March 2014.  13  Declan Walsh. “WikiLeaks Cables Portray Saudi Arabia as a Cash Machine for Terrorists.”The Guardian.  5 December 2010.  14  Glen Carey, Mahmoud Habboush and Gregory Viscusi. “Why ISIS is a Lot Richer than Al-Qaeda”  27  Jun 2014.   15  Michael K. Busch. “WikiLeaks: Saudi Millions Fund Radical Madrassas in Pakistan.” The Daily Kos.  22 May 2011.  See Also: Jonathan Manthorpe.“Jonathan Manthorpe: Saudi Arabia Funding Fuels Jihadist Terror.” The Vancouver Sun. 28 May 2013.  
16   Ed Husain. “Saudis Must Stop Exporting Extremism” The New York Times. 22 August 2014. 17  Patrick Cockburn. “Islamic State: ‘US failure to look into Saudi role in 9/11 has helped Isis.’” The Independent. 14 September 2014.   
18  Lawrence Wright. “The Twenty-Eight Pages.” The New Yorker. 9 September 2014. 19  Zoltan Pall. “Kuwaiti Salafism and its Growing Influence in the Levant.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 7 May 2014.  20  Ben Hubbard. “Private Donors’ Funds Add Wild Card to War in Syria.” The New York Times.  12 November 2013. 21  Ibid.  
                                                                                                                                                                                           22  Josh Rogin. “America's Allies Are Funding ISIS.”The Daily Beast. 14 June 2014 .  23  Elizabeth Dickinson. “Playing with Fire: Why Private Gulf Financing for Syria’s Extremist Rebels Risks Igniting Sectarian Violence at Home.” Analysis Paper No. 16. The Brookings Institution.  December 2013.  24  Ben Hubbard. “Private Donors’ Funds Add Wild Card to War in Syria.” The New York Times.  12 November 2013.  25  Elizabeth Dickinson. “The Case Against Qatar.” Foreign Policy.  30 September 2014   
26  “German Minister Accuses Qatar of Funding Islamic State Fighters.” Reuters. 20 August 2014.  27  Steve Clemons. 'Thank God for the Saudis': ISIS, Iraq, and the Lessons of Blowback.”The Atlantic. 23 June 2014. 28  David Blair and Raf Sanchez. “Senior Isil Commander Raised £1.25 Million from Qatari Nationals, Says US Treasury.” The Telegraph. 26 September 2014.  29  David Blair and Richard Spencer. “How Qatar is Funding the Rise of Islamist Extremists.” The Telegraph. 20 September 2014. 30           “German Minister Accuses Qatar of Funding Islamic State Fighters.” Reuters. 20 August 2014.  31  David Kirkpatrick. “Qatar’s Support of Islamists Alienates Allies Near and Far” The New York Times.  7 September 2014.  32     Elizabeth Dickinson. “The Case Against Qatar.” Foreign Policy. 30 September 2014  33            Eli Lake. “So Many Jihadists Are Flocking to Libya, It's Becoming ‘Scumbag Woodstock.’ The Daily Beast. 6 May 2014.  34  David Wood. “Libyan Weapons Arming Al Qaeda Militias Across North Africa, Officials Say.” The Huffington Post. February 21 2013.  See Also: Freedom C. Onuoha. “Porous Borders and Boko Haram’s Arms Smuggling Operations in Nigeria.” Al Jazeera. 8 September 2013.   
35  James Risen, Mark Mazzetti and Michael S. Schmidt. “U.S. Approved Arms for Libya Rebels Fell into Jihadi Hands” The New York Times. 5 December 2012.  See Also: Aya Burweila. “A Failure of Statesmanship: The UN Gives War, Not Libya, A Chance” China-US Focus. 6 May 2011.   
36  Rania Abouzeid. “Arming Syria’s Rebellion: How Libyan Weapons and Know-How Reach Anti-Assad Fighters.” Time. 29 May, 2013 37  Patrick Kingsley, Chris Stephen and Dan Roberts . “UAE and Egypt Behind Bombing Raids Against Libyan Militias, Say US Officials.” The Guardian. 26 August 2014.  38   Micael B. Kelley. “How US Ambassador Chris Stevens May Have Been Linked To Jihadist Rebels In Syria.”  Business Insider. 19 October 2012.  39  “U.S. Relations with Qatar.” The U.S.Department of State Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. . 26 August 2014.  40  Semih Idiz. “Turkey Reconsiders Support for Jabhat al-Nusra.”Al Monitor. 13 August 2013.  41  “Our Non Ally in Ankara.” The Wall Street Journal. 15 September 2014. 42  Richard Spencer and Raf Sanchez. “Turkish Government Co-operated with al-Qaeda in Syria, says Former US Ambassador.” The Telegraph. 12 September  2014. 43  Ghaith Abdul-Ahad. “How to Start a Battalion (in Five Easy Lessons)” The London Review of Books. Vol. 35. No. 2. 21 February 2013.    
44  Alev Scott and Alexander Christie-Miller   “Exclusive: ISIS Starts Recruiting in Istanbul’s Vulnerable Suburbs.” Newsweek. 12 September  2014   45  Ceylan Yeginsu. “ISIS Draws a Steady Stream of Recruits From Turkey” The New York Times.  15 September 2014.  46  “Turkish President Erdogan on ISIS and Regional Security” The Council on Foreign Relations.  22 September 2014.   
                                                                                                                                                                                           47  Erin Cunningham and Karen DeYoung. “Turkey, with Islamic State on its doorstep, is expected to authorize troops in Syria, Iraq.” The Washington Post. 30 September 2014.  48  David Fromkin. “Entagling Alliances.” Foreign Affairs.  July 1970. 49  Lina Khatib. “Opinion: Airstrikes Will Not Beat ISIS.” CNN. 26 September 2014.  50   Tarek Fatah. “War Against ISIS Headed for Failure.” The Toronto Sun. 16 September 2014.  51  “Saudi Arabia Agrees to Host Training of Moderate Syria Rebels.” Reuters. 10 September 2014.  52  Cristina Alesci and Kate Trafecant. “One Cost of War: U.S. Blowing up its Own Humvees.”CNN. 25 September 2014.   
53  Elizabeth Dickinson. “The Case Against Qatar.” Foreign Policy. 30 September 2014   
54   Greg Richter. “Gen. Wesley Clark: Saudis, Qatar Created ISIS Threat” Newsmax. 25 August 2014.   
55  Richard Norton-Taylor. “Iraq, Syria, Libya, UK – Intelligence Failures All.” The Guardian. 26 August 2014. See Also: “Expert: ISIS Has the Ability to Hit U.S.”  CNN. 22 August 2014.