Sunday 31 May 2015

MIDDLE EASTERN TURMOIL



MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL AND ISRAEL'S SECURITY

By Efraim Inbar via International Relations and Security Network (ISN)

The MIDDLE EAST is in great turmoil. The statist order that underpinned the region for a century has collapsed. Several states have lost their monopoly over the use of force and are no longer able to provide law and order. This is especially true of IRAQ, LEBANON, LIBYA, and SYRIA. Even EGYPT, the only historic ARAB state, has had difficulties effectively enforcing its sovereignty over its territory.
Many of the militias challenging these state entities have a radical ISLAMIST ideology, reflecting the rise in appeal of POLITICAL ISLAM in the ARAB world. In contrast to the leaders of these states, who are inefficient and corrupt, the ISLAMISTS actually deliver services to the people and have a reputation for being brutal but honest. However, the likes of AL QAIDA in ARABIAN PENINSULA (AQAP) or the so called ISLAMIC STATE (IS) are hardly the proper agents for modernizing their environments and their popularity dooms the ARAB world to continuous ignorance and poverty.
For this and other reasons, ISRAEL will need to remain vigilant in the years ahead.  

Outside Looking In 

THE STATIST ORDER THAT UNDERPINNED THE REGION FOR A CENTURY HAS COLLAPSED.

The decline of the ARAB world has been paralleled by the rise of non-ARAB MUSLIM powers – TURKEY and IRAN. Both countries fare better on development indices and display nowadays an ambitious foreign policy fueled by imperial and Islamist impulses. Under RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN and his 'zero problems' approach to foreign policy, TURKEY has gradually distanced itself from the WEST. In 2003, for example, ANKARA rejected the UNITED STATES' request to open a "northern front" against IRAQI forces. More recently, TURKEY has opposed sanctions levied by the UNITED NATIONS and the WEST against RUSSIA and IRAN.

For its part, IRAN has successfully advanced its nuclear program despite the displeasure of the international community. Comparatively, recent developments in the MIDDLE EAST and beyond have also allowed TEHRAN to establish a 'SHIITE CRESCENT' stretching from TEHRAN to the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN. This has provided IRAN with countless opportunities to project power into the MIDDLE EAST and BALKANS, much to the chagrin of SAUDI ARABIA and others. Indeed, the successes of IRANIAN SHIITE proxies in BAGHDAD, BEIRUT, DAMASCUS and SANAA underscore the TEHRAN quest for hegemony in the MIDDLE EAST.



Background Information:

TURKEYS ERRATIC FOREIGN POLICIES

SECTARIANISM - “SUNNI CRESCENT”

THE MIDDLE EAST IS PERVADED AND INCREASINGLY INFECTED BY SECTARIAN RIVALRY


ARAB DECLINE HAS BEEN PARALLELED BY THE RISE OF NON-ARAB MUSLIM POWERS – TURKEY AND IRAN.

By contrast, US influence around the MIDDLE EAST appears to be in decline, primarily as a result of the OBAMA administration's foreign policy outlook. Correcting WASHINGTON'S overextension in the ISLAMIC world is indeed necessary, but insensitivity to the concerns of its allies such as EGYPT, ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA is destructive to the regional balance of power.

In this respect, WASHINGTON'S efforts to strike a deal with IRAN that basically legitimizes its nuclear breakout status and awards TEHRAN the role of the regional policeman will be viewed by CAIRO, RIYADH and JERUSALEM as a colossal strategic mistake. The inevitable result will be further nuclear proliferation as none of these countries are likely to want to stay behind in uranium enrichment capabilities. Moreover, the regional instability could lead to more bloodshed. Relying on a radical and revisionist regime in TEHRAN to provide stability is the height of strategic folly.

Background Information:

ARE IRAN AND ISRAEL REALLY ARCHENEMIES, OR IS IT JUST A FACADE? 

IRAN SOFTENS TUNE ON ISRAEL

ISRAEL SUCCESSFULLY ESTABLISHED DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH NINE NON-ARAB MUSLIM STATES

THE VIEW FROM JERUSALEM

The implications of the MIDDLE EAST'S ongoing turmoil for ISRAEL'S security are mixed. Like IRAN and TURKEY, a democratic and politically stable ISRAEL is also a rising non-ARAB power and a player in the regional balance of power. The power differential between ISRAEL'S national might and its neighbors has further increased, given that it has managed to prosper economically and develop a high-tech powerful military.

Background Information:

ISRAEL PLANS TO RESTRUCTURE THE IDF INTO SMALL, SELF-CONTAINED ARMIES

PRO-WESTERN SUNNI ARAB STATES SEE ISRAEL AS AN ALLY AGAINST A RISING IRAN.

In addition, the strong armies of IRAQ and SYRIA have disappeared, decreasing the chances for a large-scale conventional encounter with ISRAEL. Moreover, the pro-WESTERN SUNNI states such as EGYPT, JORDAN and SAUDI ARABIA see ISRAEL as an ally against a rising IRAN, as well as against radical ISLAMIST movements. This also comes at a time when the UNITED STATES is viewed in many quarters as a less dependable ally.


By contrast, low intensity challenges might intensify. The domestic problems plaguing weakened ARAB states make them increasingly susceptible to radical ISLAM and more prone to terrorist violence. As their leaders lose their grip over state territory and borders become more porous, armed groups and terrorists gain greater freedom of action. Moreover, as weakened states lose control over their security apparatus, national arsenals of conventional (and non-conventional) arms become increasingly vulnerable, which may result in the emergence of increasingly well-armed, politically dissatisfied groups that seek to harm ISRAEL. For example, following the fall of GADDAFI, LIBYAN SA-7 anti-air missiles and anti-tank RPGs have reached HAMAS in GAZA. The IS even fights with AMERICAN weapons captured from the IRAQI army.

AS ARAB LEADERS LOSE THEIR GRIP ON POWER, ARMED GROUPS AND TERRORISTS GAIN GREATER FREEDOM OF ACTION.

IDF Covert OPS
Similarly, in the event of the ASSAD regime collapsing, SYRIA'S advanced arsenal of conventional weapons could easily end up in the hands of HIZBALLAH or other radical elements. This, in turn, raises the prospect of an emboldened HIZBALLAH and HAMAS – both of whom are IRANIAN proxies located along ISRAEL'S borders – renewing their campaigns of violence. In recent years, the fallout from the ARAB Spring has helped to detract attention away from the PALESTINIAN issue. In addition, the PALESTINIAN Authority's (PA) ability to harm ISRAEL in order to reignite international interest is also very limited. As a result, a weak PA has come under increasing pressure from the popular HAMAS. A PALESTINIAN strategic miscalculation, leading to the eruption of another round of violence, is a possibility that ISRAEL cannot ignore. Nevertheless, so far ISRAEL has been successful in containing the threats from sub-state groups and in limiting their potential damage.

The emergence of an uncertain and unstable strategic environment is conducive to strategic surprises. ISRAELI Intelligence is challenged by a plethora of new actors and leaders whose modus operandi is far from clear. ISRAEL has a large and sophisticated intelligence apparatus. Yet it is not immune to surprises. Therefore, it would be wise to prepare for worst-case scenarios, rather than succumb to rosy assessments.

Background Information:

ISRAEL’S DEFENSE STRATEGY OVERHAUL

LONG-RANGE, LARGELY CLANDESTINE AND MULTI-SERVICE MISSIONS

LOOKING WEST (IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE)

The turmoil in the ARAB world is also changing the strategic landscape in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN basin, where elements of radical ISLAM are gaining control. TUNISIA, LIBYA, SINAI in EGYPT, GAZA, LEBANON, SYRIA and TURKEY all play host to groups with ISLAMIST tendencies, thereby threatening the currently unrestricted access to this area by ISRAEL and the WEST.

FOR JERUSALEM, THE KEY FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPING REGIONAL BALANCE OF POWER IS IRAN'S “NUCLEARIZATION”.

Approximately 90 percent of ISRAEL'S foreign trade is carried out via the MEDITERRANEAN, making freedom of navigation in this area critical for ISRAEL'S economic well-being. Moreover, its chances of becoming energy independent and a significant exporter of gas is linked to ISRAEL'S ability to secure free passage for its maritime trade and to defend its newly discovered hydrocarbon fields, LEVIATHAN and TAMAR. These developments require greater ISRAELI efforts in the naval arena. Indeed, ISRAEL is engaged in building a robust security system for the gas fields and has procurement plans for additional vessels.

Background Information:

ISRAEL’S IRAN “WARMONGERING RHETORIC’S” ARE DECEIVING TACTICS FOR A GREATER CAUSE

TWO “ARCH FOES” ALLIED IN OPPOSING IRAN DEAL?

OIL AND GAS RESERVES ADD TO EXISTING TENSIONS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND LEBANON

As with other parts of the MIDDLE EAST, the assessment in JERUSALEM is that the key factor in the developing regional balance of power is IRAN'S “Nuclearization”. This would be a "game changer" that only ISRAEL has the capability to prevent. NETANYAHU'S recent electoral victory left in power the only leader that might have the political courage to order a military strike to obstruct the IRANIAN progress towards acquiring nuclear weapons. Indeed, his victory was quietly welcomed in the capitals of the moderate ARAB states that are terrified of Iran and have little time for OBAMA. SAUDI ARABIA and EGYPT are good examples.

Accordingly, ISRAEL is watching with growing bewilderment the endeavor of the OBAMA administration to implement a "grand bargain" with IRAN. This puts JERUSALEM on an inevitable collision course with its most important ally. ISRAEL continues to benefit from a large reservoir of sympathy among the populace of the UNITED STATES, and most notably within the REPUBLICAN controlled Congress.

Background Information:

AZERBAIJAN'S ISRAEL DIPLOMACY TESTS IRAN

POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND IRAN’S PRIORITIES IN THE REGION

ISRAEL’S ARMENIAN, IRANIAN AND AZERBAIJAN EQUATION



Yet, while OBAMA is not popular, as president he can extract heavy costs in the military, diplomatic and strategic arenas. The remaining 22 months until he leaves office must be weathered with minimum damage to the AMERICAN-ISRAELI strategic partnership, particularly if ISRAEL chooses to make good on its threat not to allow IRAN to become a nuclear power. With this in mind, the AMERICAN-IRANIAN nexus is the most dangerous challenge for ISRAEL'S national security in the near future.

ENVIRONMENT - GMO

THE END OF MONSANTO? 

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RoundUpCancer032515
An increasing number of countries are banning Monsanto’s cancer-linked Roundup herbicide, a.k.a. glyphosate. Others are banning Monsanto’s GMOs. Meanwhile, Monsanto-funded U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton thinks “(t)here is a big gap between what the facts are, and what the perceptions are.” Actually the facts are established: Monsanto’s herbicides and GMOs are harmful to humans and animals. Several studies have demonstrated it and even led the World Health Organization to issue a warning against glyphosate’s links to cancer.
In fact, Monsanto knew 35 years ago that its glyphosate was linked to cancer and other health issues. GM-Free Cymru discovered this while looking into the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) archives from the early 80′s:
There were many animal experiments (using rats, mice and dogs) designed to test the acute and chronic toxicity of glyphosate in the period 1978-1986, conducted by laboratories such as Bio/dynamics Inc for Monsanto and submitted for EPA consideration… but like all the other older studies they were and still are treated as Trade Secrets and cannot be freely accessed for independent scrutiny. That in itself is suggestive that the studies contain data which Monsanto still does not wish to be examined by experts in the toxicology field. It is also deeply worrying that EPA acceded to the routine Monsanto requests for secrecy on the flimsiest of pretexts.
However, archived and accessible EPA Memos from the early 1980′s do give some indications as to what the rat studies contain (9). Although the studies predate the adoption of international test guidelines and GLP standards they suggest that there was significant damage to the kidneys of the rats in the 3-generational study… In the rat study results, the changes in the bladder mucosa are significant because metabolites, concentrated by the kidneys, have led to hyperplasia that could be considered as a very early and necessary step in tumour initiation. (GM-Free Cymru, Monsanto Knew of Glyphosate / Cancer Link 35 Years Ago, April 19, 2015)
Genetically modified foods are also linked to health issues including gluten disorders:
The Executive Director of the Institute for Responsible Technology (IRT) Jeffrey M. Smith has discovered a link between gluten disorders and GM foods in a study he conducted last year. Gluten disorders have sharply risen over the past 2 decades, which correlates with GM foods being introduced into the food supply. Smith asserts that GM foods – including soy and corn – are the possible “environmental triggers” that have contributed to the rapid increase of gluten disorders that effect close to 20 million American’s today. (Steven MacMillanMonsanto’s GMO Food and its Dark Connections to the “Military Industrial Complex”The Analyst Report, July 03, 2014)
Ironically, Hillary praises GMOs but during their stay at the White house, the Clintons, just like the Obamas, were fed organic food:
The Clinton and Bush II families ate organic foods. Walter Scheib was White House executive chef from 1994 – 2005.
He had “the professional challenge of fulfilling Hillary Clinton’s mandate of bringing contemporary American cuisine and nutritionally responsible food to the White House,” he said.
Nearly all foods used were gotten from local growers and suppliers. A small White House roof garden was used for produce grown without pesticides and fertilizers. Organic foods were prioritized.
First families continue getting wholesome pesticide/GMO-free foods while promoting frankenfoods hazardous to human health for Monsanto and other biotech giants. (Stephen Lendman, Hillary Clinton Endorses GMOs. White House Meals are Organic, Global Research, May 25, 2015)
As Mike Adams reports, Hillary Clinton has  hired former Monsanto lobbyist to run her campaign and her law firm used to have Monsanto as a client. It is no surprise that she strongly advocates GMOs.
If GMOs are as good as Hillary pretends they are, however, why are the first families not eating any and why are so many countries banning them?
The reasons for the bans recall the allegedly fraudulent 2012 Seralini study:
In response to a 2004 study declaring Monsanto’s NK603 GMO maize safe:
“…a predominantly French team led by Prof Gilles-Eric Séralini undertook a two-year (over 700 days), feeding trial [2], which was otherwise similar. Their work was published in September 2012, also inFCT. The early warnings that had been dismissed in the Monsanto paper developed into serious illnesses, including damage to liver, kidneys, pituitary gland and, most notably, early deaths and development of large tumours in females. In addition, the study included trials of minute amounts of Monsanto’s Roundup, the herbicide to which tolerance has been genetically engineered into NK603, in the rats’ drinking water.” (Christina Sarich Former Monsanto Employee Fired from Major Scientific Journal’s Editor Position, Natural Society, March 30, 2015)
The study was labeled fraudulent soon after its publication and was retracted from the Journal of Food and Chemical Toxicology. Shortly before the study was retracted, ex-Monsanto employee Richard Goodman had been appointed Associate Editor. He has since been removed from the Editorial Board of the scientific journal along with Editor-in-Chief, A. Wallace Hayes:
After the Seralini study was retracted, hundreds of scientists contacted the journal to ask them why they were doing so, claiming that they were giving in to pressure from the biotech industry. (Ibid.)
The WHO’s recent warning seems to have triggered a domino effect, inciting countries to ban Monsanto products and which could lead to its demise.
Here is a list of bans which are either in effect or on their way all around the world, as well as studies showing the damages caused by Monsanto’s products:

Glyphosate ban

Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s newly elected president, Maithripala Sirisena, has announced that the import of Monsanto’s favorite killing-tool, glyphosate, will no longer be allowed in the country.
Sirisena is a farmer and ex health minister, and blames glyphosate for rising rates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) throughout the Sri Lankan farming community.
The Netherlands
Late last year, the Dutch parliament voted to ban the sale of glyphosate-based herbicides to private parties. The ban, under which agricultural use is excluded, was initially proposed several years ago. However, it is thought that Monsanto influence prevented it from taking place at the time.
Brazil
While some agencies in Brazil have been busy giving 3 new GMO crops green lights, the country’s public prosecutor has written the Brazil’s National Health Surveillance Agency (ANVISA) asking it to urgently re-evaluate their stance on the ‘likely carcinogenic’ herbicide ingredient, glyphosate. The letter was written with an expectation that the agency will ban the main ingredient in Monsanto’s best selling herbicide.
Germany (European Union)
State consumer protection ministers in Germany are advocating an EU-wide ban on glyphosate herbicides in response to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) categorization of the chemical as “probably carcinogenic.”
Argentina
The doctors are part of FESPROSA, Argentina’s Union of medical professionals. Citing the World Health Organization’s recent declaration that the glyphosate chemicals used in Monsanto’s best-selling herbicide Round Up (formulated to use on Round Up Ready crops) are “likely carcinogenic,” they add an additional disclaimer:
Glyphosate is also associated with:
  • Spontaneous abortions
  • Birth defects
  • Skin disease
  • Respiratory illness
  • Neurological disease
Bermuda
Following a recent study on Monsanto’s best-selling herbicide Roundup and its main chemical ingredient glyphosate, Bermuda has decided to suspend any importation of glyphosate/Roundup until further research give reason to lift the suspension.

GMOs ban

France
France’s lower house of Parliament banned GM corn in a sweeping fashion, Reuters reported. Now, no variety of GM corn can be cultivated because of its toxic threats to the soil, insects and human health.
U.S.
In the last election, the voters of Maui, in a ballot measure, decided to place a temporary ban on further Dow/Monsanto GMO/pesticide experiments in Maui County.
Immediately, Monsanto, Dow, and yes, even the County government of Maui (betraying their own voters), lined up against the results of the vote.
Hungary
Hungary has taken a bold stand against biotech giant Monsanto and genetic modification by destroying 1000 acres of maize found to have been grown with genetically modified seeds, according to Hungary deputy state secretary of the Ministry of Rural Development Lajos Bognar.
Unlike many European Union countries, Hungary is a nation where genetically modified (GM) seeds are banned.
Peru
In an act of defiance against bloated biotech companies like Monsanto, Peru has officially passed a law banning genetically modified ingredients within the nation for a period of 10 years…
While the ban will stop the flow of GM foods within the nation’s borders, a recent test conducted by the Peruvian Association of Consumers and Users (ASPEC) found that 77 percent of supermarket products tested contained GM contaminants.
Russia
The VP of Russia’s National Association for Genetic Safety, Irina Ermakova, has said:
“It is necessary to ban GMOs, to impose moratorium (on) it for 10 years… It has been proven that not only in Russia, but also in many other countries in the world, GMOs are dangerous. Methods of obtaining the GMOs are not perfect, therefore, at this stage, all GMOs are dangerous. Consumption and use of GMOs obtained in such way can lead to tumors, cancers and obesity among animals.
China
Russia’s stance against GMO is mirrored elsewhere, including in France where just recently Monsanto’s GM corn was banned and in China where the importing of US GM corn has been outlawed. The backlash against GMO has widespread appeal due to well-placed health and environmental concerns among increasingly informed populations. But the drive to push back against GMO in nations like Russia and China also has a geopolitical dimension.

Studies