USA AND RUSSIA: FULL SCALE WAR IN SYRIA IMMINENT?

RUSSIA EVACUATES TARTUS, ALSO MILITARY, DIPLOMATIC PERSONNEL FROM SYRIA. HIGH WAR ALERT IN ISRAEL

Via DEBKAfile 

RUSSIA announced that the evacuation of all military and diplomatic personnel from SYRIA was now complete, including the Russian naval base at Tartus.

“RUSSIA decided to withdraw its personnel because of the risks from the conflict in SYRIA, as well as the fear of an incident involving the RUSSIAN military that could have larger consequences,” said a defense ministry official in Moscow. He stressed that a 16-ship naval task force in the eastern MEDITERRANEAN remains on post and arms shipments, including anti-air weapons, would continue to the SYRIAN government in keeping with former contracts.

In another sign of an impending escalation in SYRIA, the ISRAELI GOLAN brigade staged an unannounced war maneuver on the Golan, attended by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and top army chiefs. In London, Prime Minister David Cameron called the government’s National Security Council into session in Downing Street on SYRIA. Opposition leader Ed Milliband was invited to attend the meeting, a custom observed only when issues of the highest security importance are discussed.

The sullen confrontation between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama at the G8 Summit in NORTHERN IRELAND last week condemned SYRIA to five months of escalating, unresolved vicious warfare – that is until the two leaders meet again in September.

For now, tempers are heating up between Washington and Moscow on SYRIA and other things too, notably the elusive AMERICAN fugitive Edward Snowden.

USA AND ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE WATCHERS SEE THE SYRIAN CRISIS ENTERING SEVEN OMINOUS PHASES:

1. A five-month bloodbath centering on the battle for Aleppo, a city of 2.2 million inhabitants. The SYRIAN army plus allies and the fully-mobilized opposition will hurl all their manpower and weapons into winning the city. Military experts don’t expect the rebels to hold out against Assad’s forces beyond late August.

2.  Neither side has enough manpower or game-changing weaponry for winning the war outright. That is, unless Presidents Obama or Putin steps in to retilt the balance.

3. The US and RUSSIA are poised for more military intervention in the conflict up until a point just short of a military clash on SYRIAN soil – or elsewhere in the MIDDLE EAST.

US intelligence analysts have judged Putin ready to go all the way on SYRIA against the US - no holds barred. The RUSSIAN president is meanwhile deliberately goading Washington and raising temperatures by playing hide-and-seek over the former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, charged with espionage for stealing and leaking classified intelligence. At home, he is considered variously as a traitor and a brave whistleblower.

For several hours Snowden vanished between Hong Kong and Moscow – until the RUSSIAN president admitted he was holed up in the transit area of Moscow airport and would not be extradited by RUSSIA to the UNITED STATES.

4.  IRAN, Hizballah and IRAQ will likewise ratchet up their battlefield presence.

5. A violent encounter is building up between Middle East Shiites flocking to SYRIA to save the Assad regime alongside RUSSIA, and the US-backed Sunni-dominated rebel forces.
It could scuttle the secret US-IRANIAN negotiating track on its nuclear program, which was buoyed up by the election of the pragmatic Hassan Rouhani as President of IRAN.

6.  The Geneva-2 Conference for a political solution for the SYRIAN crisis is dead in the water. Moscow and the US are divided by unbridgeable issues of principle, such whether Bashar Assad should stay or go and IRANIAN representation. 

7.  So long as the diplomatic remains stuck in the mud, the prospects of a regional war spreading out of the SYRIAN conflict are rising. IRAN, ISRAEL, JORDAN and LEBANON may be dragged in at any moment – if they have not already, like LEBANON.

A small mistake by one of the SYRIAN warring parties in SYRIA could, for example, touch off ISRAELI retaliation and a wholesale spillover of violence.

SYRIA: ARMING SYRIAN REBELS COULD CREATE A LEGACY AS HARMFUL AS SYKES - PICOT

SYRIA’S CIVIL WAR IS NOW A GEOPOLITICAL BATTLE FOR REGIONAL DOMINATION

By Jaswant Singh, via StratRisk

As the West begins to gear up for the centenary of the outbreak of World War I in 1914, the Middle East is being convulsed as never before by the legacy of the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. Look no farther than SYRIA, where one part of that legacy – the Sykes-Picot Agreement (See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes%E2%80%93Picot_Agreement ),which divided the Middle East into BRITISH and FRENCH spheres of influence even while the Great War still raged – is coming to a brutally violent end. Likewise, the current turmoil in TURKEY is, at least in part, a consequence of “neo-Ottoman” overreach by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government. In seeking to establish the type of regional influence that TURKS have not had since the time Mustapha Kemal Ataturk founded the Republic of TURKEY, Erdogan has fallen prey to some of the Ottoman regime’s hubris.

The Levant has, of course, been the scene of countless conflicts throughout the centuries. Sir Archibald Wavell, one of BRITAIN’S greatest World War II generals and the penultimate Viceroy of INDIA, wrote in his biography of the World War I field marshal Edmund Allenby, who led the Allies in the Levant: “The greatest exploit in the history of horsed cavalry, and possibly their last success on a large scale, had ended within a short distance of the battlefield of Issus, where Alexander the Great first showed how battles could be won.”

But peace still eludes the Levant. As MIDDLE EAST analyst Murtaza Hussain recently observed: “SYRIA and IRAQ, formerly unified ARAB states formed after the defeat of their former Ottoman rulers, exist today only in name.” What will emerge from the present situation could be a fragmented, easily manipulated region.

This is why SYRIA’S civil war is now a geopolitical battle for regional domination, with multiple fractures along sectarian lines. As is now clear, no country is really free of the charge of interfering in SYRIA. While Shiite-majority IRAQ has attempted to portray itself as neutral, it has permitted IRANIAN flights to use its airspace to carry weapons to the regime of President Bashar Assad.

IT IS ESTIMATED THAT 148 GROUPS, BIG AND SMALL, ARE FIGHTING IN THE COUNTRY.

IRAN, too, has long used its alliance with SYRIA to pursue its interests in the Levant, which include support for Hezbollah in LEBANON. On the ground, Hezbollah, which is now openly fighting in SYRIA to keep Assad in power, asserts that “war is coming to Aleppo,” the ancient city that is the heart of the anti-Assad rebellion.

Indeed, according to Lakhdar Brahimi, who serves as joint special representative of the United Nations and the Arab League for SYRIA, there are an estimated 148 groups, big and small, fighting in the country.

Meanwhile, SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR – which Middle East commentator Saeed Naqvi has called the “most vulnerable Sunni kingdoms” – have attempted “to divert popular discontent along sectarian, Shiite-Sunni lines.”

This ancient fracture, papered over by Sir Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot 97 years ago in their secret agreement, has now swallowed SYRIA, with Assad portrayed as some sort of Alawite ogre. Many Western diplomats appear to be of the same superficial cast of mind as Sykes and Picot, believing that Assad’s fall from power would remove SYRIA from the IRAN-Hezbollah axis.

DOUBLE EDGED SWORD POLICIES OF SAUDI ARABIA 

But will it? And who or what will replace Bashar Assad? Surely not the ragtag groups that are fighting Assad’s regime, even if the UNITED STATES may now supply some of them with arms, as President Barack Obama’s administration recently announced.

Recent history suggests just how malleable the elements in play in SYRIA really are. Consider SAUDI ARABIA’S actions there. As Bruce Riedel, an ex-CIA analyst and former National Security Council member, recently noted, “Ironically, [Saudi intelligence chief Prince] Bandar was crucial to the transition in SYRIA from Hafez Assad to Bashar back in 2000, assuring key Alawite generals, then in the regime, that Bashar was up to the job and had Saudi support.” Now the same Prince Bandar “is trying to get arms to the Sunni rebels to oust Bashar.”

Such long-term unpredictability is why the former EUROPEAN UNION foreign-policy high representative Javier Solana and the former NATO secretary general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer assert that talks in Geneva are the only viable way out of the SYRIAN morass. An agreement last month between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and RUSSIAN Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov to launch a new political process for SYRIA, the so-called Geneva II conference, marked a possible opportunity; but hope is waning even before the talks begin.

Indeed, one reason for this is that, on the opening day of the RUSSIA-EUROPEAN UNION Summit in Yekaterinburg on June 4, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin confirmed that his country would honor its contract with Syria to deliver S-300 surface-to-air missile systems. Putin stressed RUSSIA’S disappointment over the EU’s failure to maintain the arms embargo against SYRIA, thus permitting each EU member state to begin arming the SYRIAN rebels.

Now, with Obama’s decision to send arms as well, his “red line” in SYRIA – the use of chemical weapons – could well create a legacy as damaging to the region as that of the Sykes-Picot “line in the sand” proved to be. To arm the rebel groups is, perhaps inevitably, also to arm their terrorist and mercenary allies. That is not a recipe for long-term stability.

TINKER, TAILOR, WHISTLEBLOWER .....

Tinker, Tailor, Whistleblower... Spy?

By Alexander Holstein via

Geopoliticalmonitor.com 

Edward Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor and so-called whistleblower who leaked classified information on numerous top-secret NSA surveillance programs, is the most damaging traitor in U.S. history.  That’s a pretty incendiary statement, especially considering the legions of overnight devotees—marquee name-plates, political heavyweights and Average Joe Six-Packs from both sides of the partisan equation—who have turned Mr. Snowden into a post-cyberpunk cause célèbre, media darling, and “hero” of individual freedom.  Mr. Snowden’s actions, however, could prove more damaging than those of traditional double agents such as Edwin Lee Howard, Aldrich Ames and Robert Hanssen.  On par perhaps with the most damaging spy of the entire Cold War—Kim Philby, the senior British intelligence officer and KGB mole who defected to the USSR, where he died as a Hero of the Soviet Union.

That Mr. Snowden committed a flagrant breach of national security is without question.  The non-disclosures attached to his clearances and to which he was a signatory make that blatantly clear.  The real question, then, is whether or not that breach was warranted in the name of a greater moral good, namely uncovering illegal government activity that violates the Constitution of the United States and threatens the rights of the American people.

Daniel Ellsberg, who famously leaked the Pentagon Papers, has declared Mr. Snowden the most important whistleblower in U.S. history.  But Mr. Snowden doesn’t fit the traditional whistleblower profile.  Ellsberg himself never fled the United States, but voluntarily stood trial on charges of espionage, which were dismissed.  Bradley Manning, the U.S. Army sergeant who dumped a truckload of classified material into the lap of Wikileaks, is now facing a military court martial, and has already pled guilty to 10 of the 22 charges brought against him.  Frank Serpico, the New York police detective who famously blew the lid off widespread corruption within the NYPD, not only exhausted every proper channel open to him before going to the press, but stayed on the job and took a bullet thereafter.

Mr. Snowden, on the other hand, fled to—of all places—Hong Kong, which, of course, is in the People’s Republic of China, hardly a bastion of the electronic freedom for which Mr. Snowden claims to have martyred himself.  The PRC runs one of the most restrictive and intrusive internet regimes in the world—and not as part of a targeted effort to snare suspected terrorists, but in a blanket campaign to suppress the most basic human rights.  It’s like moving in with the Taliban in support of women’s lib.      

Mr. Snowden claims he would not get a fair trial in the United States, because the U.S. government has already poisoned the jury pool by smearing him as a traitor.  Maybe he’s never heard of O.J. Simpson or Cayce Anthony, both tried and convicted in the media before being acquitted for murder. Far more Americans have come out in support of Mr. Snowden, believing him to be a whistleblower.  If he truly believes in the system that he claims he is trying to protect, in the Constitution itself, then wouldn’t he voluntarily return to the United States to stand trial for any charges brought against him?  As CBS News anchor Bob Schieffer stated on Face the Nation, “I don’t remember Martin Luther King, Jr., or Rosa Parks running off and hiding in China.  The people who ran the civil-rights movement were willing to break the law and suffer the consequences.  That’s a little different than putting the nation’s security at risk and running away.”

The NSA programs that Mr. Snowden has compromised are not designed to read everyone’s e-mail and eavesdrop on their phone calls.  All they really do is collect phone numbers and the length of calls without identifying the subscribers themselves.  The so-called “secret courts” that oversee them under the Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) restrict access to only specially cleared personnel who have been trained in FISA warrant procedures, and only when they establish a reasonable suspicion that any specific data to be examined relates to a foreign terrorist organization.  A recent article in the Washington Post describes the court, originally created under the Carter administration in 1978, as a “clandestine terrorism surveillance tribunal” and   “body of law separate from the one on the books.” Nothing could be further from the truth.  The use of the term “clandestine” alone is as misleading as it is erroneous; if the FISA court was truly clandestine, after all, then the government would have long denied its existence, which it never has.  The Post should know better.  Or maybe it doesn’t.  The same article goes on to claim that the court almost never turns down a warrant request.  However, former U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials involved in counter-terror surveillance operations have confirmed to Geopoliticalmonitor.com that FISA warrants are tougher than any other to obtain.  In fact, a former FBI intelligence analyst confirms that the process of securing and then ensuring proper compliance with a FISA warrant is so laborious that many agents prefer not to bother unless they are absolutely certain of an existing threat from the specific target of the requested surveillance.  

In any case, Mr. Snowden has neither protected anyone’s rights nor freedom.  Despite his claims that he only leaked information about systems in order to protect people, his actions have put thousands of innocent Americans in harms way by damaging the ability of U.S. intelligence services and law enforcement agencies to connect the dots between suspected terrorists and their activities, making it more difficult, perhaps even impossible, for them to stop the next 9/11.  Congressional Democrats and Republicans agree that the NSA surveillance programs are vital to the national security of the United States.

Not everyone buys Mr. Snowden’s whistleblower story.  Some, like former Vice President Dick Cheney, initially went so far as to suggest that he has been a Chinese spy, or mole, from the outset.  Mr. Snowden responded to the accusation by claiming that if he were a Chinese mole, he would have fled to Beijing where he would now be living like a king, rather than a desperate fugitive on the run.  Maybe.  Unless the Chinese themselves wanted to smokescreen their involvement, avoid the diplomatic fallout that most assuredly would rain down in the aftermath of such a Chernobyl-grade scandal.  How much better for them to cast their “Joe” as a whistleblower and have him blow away the NSA’s operations to the press.  How much better to gravely damage U.S. security, global prestige, and even the presidency.  How much better to hoodwink a large segment of the American population, including heavyweight influencers, into hailing Mr. Snowden as a hero, rather than have the entire country vilifying him as a traitor, and China as the enemy.  How much better to have that same large segment live in greater fear of its own government.  Actually, that would be rather Sun-Tzu of them.

On this point, Mr. Snowden’s recent leap to Russia makes little difference.  In fact, fleeing China, seeking asylum elsewhere, leap-frogging countries- all this would only enhance his cover.  The Russians would be happy to play their part the charade, as long as the Chinese were willing to share the product.  Russia and China do maintain an intelligence cooperation treaty.  Both the Chinese and the Russians could also negotiate his safe passage to a third-party nation like Ecuador or Venezuela or Cuba, all of whom might grant Mr. Snowden asylum in exchange for Russian or Chinese largesse.  Would he be worth the trouble?  Considering all the trouble he alone has caused the United States, you bet.  

The more likely scenario, however, is that Mr. Snowden is simply a self-serving narcissist who believes himself righteous in his actions; a loose cannon who thinks he knows better than anyone else what’s in the best interest of the American people, and, in the ascent of his own self-centered one-man dictatorship, the very Constitution he claims to be protecting gets ripped to shreds.  If not a spy already, he could still become one after the fact, trade further state secrets as part of a deal for asylum.

To his supporters, all of this is at best far-fetched, and at worst part of a government dirty tricks campaign to smear their hero.  But all of these people need ask themselves one simple question: Would they still consider Mr. Snowden a hero if he were an FBI technician who blew away an undercover operation targeting online child sex traffickers using the same surveillance methods under a judicial warrant and congressional oversight?  Here, the only difference is the target.  Terrorists instead of pedophiles.  One thing is for certain: whether delusional narcissist or bona fide spy, as a traitor, Edward Snowden is feeding off the bottom of the same pond.

ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI ALLIANCE AND IRAN Part 3

IRAN AND ISRAEL: REAL ARCH FOES OR JUST A FACADE? 

By Mahir Khalifa-zadeh

A key element in the AZERBAIJAN-ISRAEL relationship has been their mutual concern over the Islamic Republic of IRAN. IRAN presents the most serious threat to ISRAEL. As result, Jerusalem has launched a strategy of active diplomacy in the region surrounding IRAN. At a May 2009 conference at the Center for IRANIAN Studies at Tel Aviv University, the former head of the ISRAELI Military Intelligence Directorate Major General Aharon Ze’evi Farkash said, “It is very important to form a coalition with the moderate Sunnite countries which… [fear the] IRANIAN nuclear threat.” In addition, according to ISRAELI analyst Uzi Rabbi, “ISRAEL must conduct active diplomacy in the regions surrounding IRAN,” and “to resist IRANIAN aggression several coalition alliances should be formed.”[42]

Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: As mentioned numerous times on this blog, mainstream media and to some extend even alternative media report that IRAN presents the most serious threat to ISRAEL, and that IRAN’S nuclear threat should be a concern for the entire world is mainly a convenient bargaining tool for both, ISRAEL and IRAN. In most likelihood the behind the scene scenario looks rather different. Like with AZERBAIJAN, ISRAEL may conduct secrete wheeling and dealings with the PERSIAN state, a scenario not at all impossible, since ISRAEL’S new political doctrine fosters geopolitical as well as economic alliances with non Arab Muslim stated. After all the two countries, in the not too distant past, had not always been arch enemies. See:

ARE IRAN AND ISRAEL REALLY ARCHENEMIES, OR IS IT JUST A FACADE?  http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/iran-and-israel-real-archenemies.html and

IRAN SOFTENS TUNE ON ISRAEL http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/iran-and-israel-improvement-in.html

ISRAEL’S ARMENIAN, IRANIAN AND AZERBAIJAN EQUATION 

Thus, AZERBAIJAN, with its strategic location along IRAN’S northern border, plays an important part of ISRAEL’S foreign policy agenda vis-à-vis the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). ISRAELI policymakers are aware of AZERBAIJAN’S insecurity and mistrust towards IRAN because of Tehran’s aid to ARMENIA, which occupies territory internationally recognized as part of AZERBAIJAN.

In view of these facts, ISRAEL has repeatedly declared that Jerusalem supported AZERBAIJANI territorial integrity. The former ISRAELI ambassador to TURKEY and the ex-deputy foreign minister, Pinkhaz Avivi, said, “Our position is the following: We recognize the principle of AZERBAIJAN’S territorial integrity. We don’t try to hide the fact that our relations with AZERBAIJAN are more intense and rewarding than our relations with ARMENIA and that relations with AZERBAIJAN are strategically important for us.” He also added in an interview, “We have common goals. We understand AZERBAIJAN’S concern with its IRANIAN neighbor better than anyone, and that’s a good ground for rapprochement. Our dialogue with ARMENIA, on other hand, has always been interconnected with our relations with TURKEY.”[43]

TURKEY IS ESSENTIAL FOR ISRAEL’S FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Undoubtedly, TURKISH cooperation is essential for ISRAEL’S foreign and security policy. ISRAEL considers the TURKISH-AZERBAIJANI alliance as a favorable factor for deepening and enhancing security and defense cooperation with AZERBAIJAN despite the cooling of ISRAEL’S relations with Ankara. ISRAEL, for its part, considers the expansion of political and defense cooperation with AZERBAIJAN an influential factor for improving its relations with TURKEY. The ISRAELI military industry is now a major provider of advanced aviation, anti-tank artillery, and anti-infantry weapon systems to AZERBAIJAN. 

ISRAELI DRONES FOR AZERBAIJAN 

Furthermore, ISRAELI Aeronautics Defense Systems have helped AZERBAIJAN assemble unmanned aircrafts.[44] In February 2012, ISRAELI defense officials reportedly confirmed a deal to sell unmanned military aircrafts as well as antiaircraft and missile defense systems to AZERBAIJAN for approximate $1.6 billion.[45]

Background Information:

$1.6 BILLION ARMS AGREEMENT THAT PROVIDES AZERBAIJAN WITH SOPHISTICATED DRONES AND MISSILE-DEFENSE SYSTEMS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/israel-azerbaijan-and-iran.html and

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/israel-azerbaijan-and-kazakhstan_6.html

WAHHABI ORGANIZATIONS OPERATING IN AZERBAIJAN?

ISRAEL and AZERBAIJAN maintain intense cooperate on security issues as well. In October 2001, President Heydar Aliyev met with ISRAEL’S ambassador, Eitan Naeh, and confirmed that “their positions in the fight against international terrorism… were identical.” According to ISRAELI experts, groups like Hizb al-Tahrir pose a threat both to Jerusalem and to Baku. ISRAELI analysts also argue that some Wahhabi organizations may be operating in AZERBAIJAN. 

Background Information: ORIGIN OF WAHHABISM at:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/08/saudi-arabia-origin-of-wahhabism.html

ALLEGEDLY, IDF ELECTRONIC LISTENING STATIONS HAVE BEEN SET UP ALONG THE CASPIAN SEA AND IRANIAN BORDER

Security cooperation between the two countries has entailed intelligence exchanges, data analysis (including satellite information), briefings, and other activities. ISRAEL also trains AZERBAIJANI security and intelligence services and provides security for the AZERI president on foreign visits. Some sources also report that ISRAEL has set up electronic listening stations along the Caspian Sea and IRANIAN border.[47]

ISRAEL’S next priority is to counter the IRANIAN intelligence network in AZERBAIJAN and in other Muslim countries of the CIS. IRAN has attempted to expand its political influence to its immediate neighbors as well as to intensify intelligence operations, particularly in AZERBAIJAN. According to AZERBAIJANI media reports, the national security services have arrested 22 people who were sent by IRAN to carry out terrorist attacks against the U.S. and ISRAELI embassies, as well as against Western-linked groups and companies in Baku. In February 2012, the AZERBAIJANI Ministry of National Security announced the arrest of a terrorist group allegedly working for IRAN’S secret services. In January 2012, AZERBAIJAN’S secret service arrested two people accused of plotting to kill two teachers at a Jewish school in Baku. In 2007, AZERBAIJAN arrested 15 people in connection with an alleged IRANIAN-linked spy network accused of providing intelligence on Western and ISRAELI activities.[48]

AZERI-ISRAELI security cooperation is vital and beneficial for both Baku and Jerusalem. The failure of the AZERBAIJANI-ISRAELI alliance to work together to counter IRAN would be irresponsible and would have unpredictable consequences for Baku and Jerusalem. Tehran’s attempts to expand its Shi’i and IRANIAN ideology could have a negative impact on AZERBAIJAN’S potential to be an independent and strong AMERICAN ally in the region. It is clear that the fall of secular AZERBAIJAN would badly damage ISRAEL’S security and AMERICA’S strategic interests. Moreover, this would strengthen IRAN and create a totally new balance of power in the GREATER MIDDLE EAST, particularly in the SOUTH CAUCASUS and CASPIAN basin, as well as in CENTRAL ASIA.

ENERGY FACTOR, ISRAEL AND AZERBAIJAN

Last, AZERBAIJANI energy is a critical factor in ISRAEL’S strategic calculations. In 2011, AZERBAIJAN exported as much as to 2.5 million tons (about 18.5 million barrels) of oil with total worth of $2.1 billon to ISRAEL. Last year trade turnover between ISRAEL and AZERBAIJAN reached $4 billion, making AZERBAIJAN ISRAEL’S top trade partner within CIS countries.[49] According to Ariel Cohen, ISRAEL “… can benefit from projects designed to bring CASPIAN and CENTRAL ASIAN oil and gas to WESTERN markets as they allow ISRAEL to diversify supply and receive abundant energy at affordable price.”[50]

ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI energy cooperation has clearly become an extremely important factor for ISRAEL’S energy security. This cooperation allows for the diversification of supplies of oil and gas and for exploration of ISRAEL’S energy resources. Baku provides Jerusalem with over one-third of ISRAEL’S oil supply.[51] As a result of former ISRAELI Foreign Minister Lieberman’s April 2012 visit to Baku, SOCAR will start drilling in Med Ashdod, ISRAEL’S oil field, located 16 kilometers off the MEDITERRANEAN coast.  The ISRAELI Ambassador to Baku, Michael Lotem said, “The drilling will begin soon. The work is at a very advanced stage and delivery of a drilling rig to the field is now expected.[52] The project is SOCAR’s first oil-production or drilling operation outside of AZERBAIJAN. The contract allows SOCAR to gain international experience and expand its operations in TURKEY, GEORGIA, ISRAEL, and other countries.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES

It is well-known that the UNITED STATES has declared the CASPIAN basin as vital to its national interests. In this context, the ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI partnership is an effective tool to strengthen and support AMERICA’S strategic presence in this very sensitive part of the world. Furthermore, the ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI alliance to counter IRAN has strategic importance for U.S. interests, particularly in the GREATER MIDDLE EAST and CENTRAL ASIA. Unlike ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN and GEORGIA are AMERICA’S allies in the SOUTH CAUCASUS and the CASPIAN basin. The strengthening of AZERBAIJAN’S secular and pro-Western independence should be a strategic priority for U.S. diplomacy in the region.

However, the Obama administration’s lack of focus on SOUTH CAUCASUS affairs jeopardizes AMERICA’S strategic interests in the region. Unlike the Clinton administration and the Bush administration, the Obama administration has not been active in managing IRANIAN and RUSSIAN influence in this part of the world. As result of the RUSSO-GEORGIAN war of 2008, the Tehran-Moscow axis effectively decreased AMERICA’S influence in the GREATER CASPIAN BASIN. Now, the axis continues to limit or minimize U.S. political activity and increases pressure on Washington’s allies.

Indeed, AZERBAIJAN is under double pressure from IRAN and RUSSIA and needs strong U.S. support to secure its national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. AZERBAIJAN’S pro-WESTERN independence ensures a U.S. strategic presence in the CASPIAN basin and facilitates its power projection deep into ASIA. In this context, AZERBAIJAN is of the utmost geostrategic importance for the UNITED STATES. The loss of a secular and independent AZERBAIJAN, as previously discussed, would badly damage both U.S. and EU strategic interests.

GEO STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

Since the fall of the SOVIET UNION, the historically close and warm relations between Jews and Azeris became a solid base for mutual cooperation between the State of Israel and the Republic of AZERBAIJAN. Both countries are strategically located but in hostile environments. This has strengthened their rapprochement and led to expanded cooperation.

Despite strong opposition from Tehran and Moscow, AZERBAIJAN has established a close partnership with ISRAEL. Today, Baku and Jerusalem are partners on a wide range of issues. The insecurity and regional threats have pushed both AZERBAIJAN and ISRAEL to create a strategic alliance that enhances security and defense capabilities.

However, the future of the ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI relationship depends on the political nature of the ruling power in AZERBAIJAN. IRAN continues its attempts to spread its Islamic Revolution ideology into AZERBAIJAN through Shi’i propaganda, while expanding its intelligence network in Baku and other major AZERBAIJANI cities.

The strengthening of pro-Islamist or Shi’i political forces would have a catastrophic impact on AZERBAIJAN’S political future as a secular state and a strong ISRAELI and AMERICAN ally. In this light, the strengthening of ties in all areas is crucial in order to combat IRANIAN influence. It is also of fundamental importance that the AZERI-JEWISH/ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI alliance is cultivated as a long-term and mutually advantageous relationship.

SIGNIFICANCE OF RICHARD MORNINGSTAR’S NOMINATION AS U.S. AMBASSADOR TO AZERBAIJAN

With its pro-WESTERN foreign policy, AZERBAIJAN is strategically important for U.S. and ISRAELI interests in the GREATER MIDDLE EAST and in the post-Soviet space. Ensuring AZERBAIJAN’S future as a secular, independent state should be a key priority for ISRAEL and the UNITED STATES. It is likely that the new U.S. administration will intensify efforts to support AZERBAIJAN’S independence and territorial integrity in order to position it under NATO’s security umbrella and to protect the strategic WESTERN oil infrastructure in the CASPIAN basin. Richard Morningstar’s 2012 nomination as U.S. Ambassador to AZERBAIJAN was a strategic move aimed to revive and push forward U.S. diplomacy in the SOUTH CAUCASUS and CASPIAN basin.

Background Information on RICHARD MORNINGSTAR: Read below extracts from

“COMPLEXITY-OF-EASTERN-MED-ENERGY-GAMES”

US SPECIAL ENVOY FOR EURASIAN ENERGY, AMBASSADOR RICHARD MORNINGSTAR AND THE USA’S GEOPOLITICAL AGENDA

In July 2011 Washington joined the GREEK energy game. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton flew to Athens with energy on her mind. That was clear by the fact she brought along Special Envoy for EURASIAN Energy, Richard Morningstar. Morningstar was husband Bill Clinton’s Special Advisor to the President on CASPIAN Basin Energy Diplomacy. Morningstar, along with his controversial aide, Matthew Bryza, have been the key Washington architects of Washington’s geopolitically-motivated oil and gas pipeline projects that would isolate RUSSIA and its Gazprom gas resources from the EU. Bryza is an open opponent of RUSSIAN Gazprom’s South Stream gas pipeline that would transit the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN states. The USA seems to have its own agenda regarding GREEKS recent oil and gas discoveries, for three days after Hillary left Athens the GREEK government proposed creation of a new government agency to run tenders for oil and gas surveys and ultimate drilling bids.

US SPECIAL ENVOY FOR EURASIAN ENERGY, AMBASSADOR RICHARD MORNINGSTAR  - THE US SPECIALIST IN “ECONOMIC WARFARE”:

He was instrumental in backing the controversial B-T-C oil pipeline from Baku through Tbilisi in GEORGIA across to the TURKISH Mediterranean port of CEYHAN, a costly enterprise designed solely to bypass RUSSIAN oil pipeline transit. 

Entire article can be read at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html

With regard to any military option to stop IRAN’S nuclear program, AZERBAIJAN continues to attempt to remain neutral. On a May 29, 2012, visit to Tehran, the AZERBAIJANI minister of defense said, “The Republic of AZERBAIJAN, like always in the past, will never permit any country to take advantage of its land, or air, against the Islamic Republic of IRAN, which we consider our brother and friend country.”

Indeed, Baku would like to avoid any possible military clashes with IRAN and maintain its neutrality. However, AZERBAIJAN’S actions and pragmatic foreign policy indicate that Baku’s position is more pro-Western than pro-IRANIAN. Baku will thus continue to cooperate with ISRAEL in order to protect and advance AZERBAIJANI national interests.

Mahir Khalifa-zadeh, Ph.D. is a political analyst based in Toronto, Canada. He is affiliated with the Montreal-based Center for Research on Globalization and is a member of the Canadian Political Science Association. He is also Professor of Political Science at the International Eco-Energy Academy (Baku, Azerbaijan) and a regular contributor to international journals on global politics and security. His latest article is “Iran and the South Caucasus: A Struggle for Influence” (Sweden, 2011).

Notes:

[42] Artak Grigoryan, “Priority Directions in the Foreign Policy of Israel: South Caucasus and Central Asia,” Noravank Foundation, September 22, 2009, http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=3623.

[43] “Pinkhaz Avivi: We Embrace the Potential of Economic Ties with the South Caucasus,” November 7, 2011, Vestnik Kavkaza, http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/19641.html.

[44] “Azeris Get Israel UAVs Built Under License,” UPI, October 7, 2011, http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Azeris_get_Israel_UAVs_built_under_license_999.html.

[45] “Israel Signs $1.6 Billion Arms Deal with Azerbaijan,” Haaretz.com, February 26, 2012, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-signs-1-6-billion-arms-deal-with-azerbaijan-1.414916.

[47] Shamkhal Abilov, “The Azerbaijan-Israel Relations: A Non-diplomatic but Strategic Partnership,” OAKA, Vol. 4, No. 8 (2009), http://www.usak.org.tr/dosyalar/dergi/gm3veLfV7Q5rP83jaIV34UObvarinb.pdf, pp. 138-56.

[48] “Azerbaijan Arrests Alleged Iran-hired Terrorists,” Fox News, March 14, 2012, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/03/14/22-arrested-in-azerbaijan-in-plot-on-us-israeli-embassies/.

[49] “Lieberman: The Trade Turnover Between Azerbaijan and Israel Reaches $4 Billion,” Contact.az, April 23, 2012, http://www.contact.az/docs/2012/Politics/04234650en.htm.

[50] Cohen and DeCorla-Souza, “Eurasian Energy and Israel’s Choices.”

[51] Jen Alic, “Azerbaijan’s International Energy Aspirations Raise Tensions in Middle East,” Oilprice.com, May 15, 2012, http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Azerbaijans-International-Energy-Aspirations-Raise-Tensions-in-Middle-East.html.

[52] Shahin Abbasov