SAUDI ARABIA ON THE BRINK OF REGIME CHANGE?

IS SAUDI ARABIA REALLY AT THE BRINK OF A 

ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DOWNFALL?

It seems that SAUDI ARABIA has started to undergo the transformation various experts predicted. Those became obvious when the sitting king SALMAN BIN ABDULAZIZ AL SAUD replaced his deceased elder brother ABDULLAH BIN ABDULAZIZ AL SAUD in January 2015, and made a number of quite unusual arrangements within the ruling elite, appointing the head of the Ministry of Interior MUHAMMAD BIN NAYEF from ABDULLAH’S clan the Crown Prince, while his 33-year-old son MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN AL SAUDFROM the SUDAIRY clan received the appointment of Deputy Crown Prince.

Background Information:

SAUDI ARABIA: THE NEXT GEOPOLITICAL TSUNAMI?

Even back then it was clear that within a short period of time the king would try to hand over all power in the country to his own son by sidestepping MUHAMMAD BIN NAYEF, while he himself would retire due to Alzheimer’s disease, becoming sort of a “king-father” with no real power, but with the right to an advisory vote on important decisions. Needless to say, it’s a direct violation of the tradition of succession to the throne from brother to brother that has been in place in SAUDI ARABIA that is going to be replaced by the father-to-son succession. To make such a transition one should be able to carry out a coup d’etat or win the approval of the succession board, which is formed according to different sources by 7 or 11 members of the AL SAUD dynasty.

QUARREL INSIDE THE HOUSE SAUD BECOMES STRONGER AMIDST ECONOMIC DOWNTURN

Now it seems that the wheels of the political machine are moving again. Recent reports from RIYADH indicated that his disease is taking a toll on the king and he wants to renounce his reign in favor of the Crown Prince. But then neighboring states, especially QATAR and the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, started hinting that the members of the SAUDI royal family along with the sheikhs of the strongest tribes, which are the foundation of AL SAUD’S rule, are extremely dissatisfied with the sharp deterioration of the economic and social situation in the country, leading to a major drop in their personal incomes. It is no secret that RIYADH increased the volume of oil production to weaken the positions of its main competitors – RUSSIA, IRAN and VENEZUELA. But the kingdom had to take a punch as well, it was forced to unseal its reserve fund and cut the funding of numerous social programs.

GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CHESS GAME AMONG SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN, RUSSIA, SYRIA AND IRAQ

And then came the execution of 47 Shia public figures, including the popular human rights activist NIMR BAQIR AL-NIMR. The executions were designed as a form of retaliation to IRAN and HEZBOLLAH for the help they have provided to the SYRIAN people in the fight against pro-SAUDI militants.

Background Information:

click here: SAUDI’S STRATEGIC EASTERN PROVINCE

This step provoked massive unrest in the SHIA areas of the kingdom, the areas that produce the better part of all SAUDI oil. The country has found itself on the brink of a civil war and a military conflict with IRAN at the same time, which has also provoked major discontent in the West. After all, the West needs a politically loyal IRAN, a country in which huge investments can be made, especially in oil and gas sectors, in order to push RUSSIAN out of the EUROPEAN gas market and the international oil markets at the same time. In this context TEHRAN is forced to carry on relying on MOSCOW in the confrontation with SAUDI ARABIA to ensure its safety and continue providing military assistance to SYRIA, IRAQ and SHIA rebels in YEMEN.

SAUDI KING TO RENOUNCE HIS THRONE TO HIS SON, MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN AL SAUD

Now the highly respected Institute for GULF AFFAIRS is stating that the king of SAUDI ARABIA SALMAN BIN ABDULAZIZ AL SAUD is preparing to renounce the throne in favor of his son MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN AL SAUD, and has since brought his country to the brink of a disaster.

It means that the 80-year-old SALMAN is trying desperately hard to persuade his brothers on the succession board to allow him to change the principle of succession of the SAUDI throne, since he’s ready to leave, but not so ready for his nephew MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN AL SAUD to rule the country.

Storm clouds over Mecca Image by: Amr Abdallah Dalsh / REUTERS

What the king has been doing is allegedly done “only for the sake of the stability of the kingdom.” Although the reality of the situation is clear – should SALMAN retain his position, the disintegration of the kingdom is imminent, with certain Shia areas breaking away, while the regions on the border with YEMEN which are mostly populated by YEMENI tribes, more than happy to return home. Moreover, the Minister of Interior used to be a habitual cocaine user, so he was only able to “produce” two daughters, and now he’s somewhat incapable of producing more children. Should the king manage to carry out the above described scheme, he will become the first SAUDI monarch to leave the throne to his son.

HAVE FALLING OIL PRICES REALLY STRUCK SAUDI ARABIA AT ITS HEART?

And the fact that there’s a growing crisis in SAUDI ARABIA was evident from the cuts in subsidies and bonuses that king SALMAN started at the beginning of this year to reduce the country’s total dependence on oil. After decades of extensive use of oil revenues to subsidize companies’ payment of generous salaries and providing enormous social benefits, falling oil prices struck SAUDI ARABIA at its heart.

It’s enough to say that revenues from oil exports in 2015 alone dropped by half. Ultimately it’s hard to say which country suffers the most from these oil wars – RUSSIA OR SAUDI ARABIA, since the latter has virtually no other sectors to support the economy. SAUDI economist TURKI FADAAK believes that SAUDI ARABIA is exiting the policy of “universal welfare”, so there’s an ongoing psychological shift in the minds of the ruling elite of the state. FADAAK is convinced that the ultimate aim of king SALMAN’S measures is to eliminate the SAUDI dependency on oil. But is it really? According to leading international experts – the answer is a resounding “no”, with all the arguments to the contrary nothing more than fantasy.

Although initially it seemed that SALMAN, who came to power after the death of his brother, King ABDULLAH, will continue his course, after assuming the throne SALMAN generously spent over 30 billion dollars from the budget on bonuses for civil servants, military personnel, and students. Additionally, prices for basic goods and services, including fuel, electricity and water prices were kept at extremely low levels due to government subsidies from oil revenues. However, due to falling oil prices, under the pressure of such costs the budget started to rupture. The most important thing now for the kingdom is to execute the transition from the extremely lavish social security system to a productive economy, but then the subjects of the king will be forced to cut their costs, and it looks that they do not agree with this notion. And accusations in the imminent economic collapse will go SALMAN’S way, so it is better for him to leave now, before protests even start.

CHANGE IN TACTICS

It is curious that SAUDI ARABIA has been rather realistic about its budget for the year 2016, since it was based on the average price of oil keeping at the level 29 dollars per barrel. Last year, the SAUDI budget deficit amounted to almost 98 billion dollars and the costs were considerably higher than it was originally planned due to bonuses for civil servants, military personnel and retirees. In 2016 the authorities decided to put up to 49 billion dollars into a special fund to provide funding for the most important projects in case oil prices drop even further. But it was SAUDI ARABIA back in 2014 that proposed new tactics for OPEC, which implied that there would be no cuts in the level of production, the tactics that drove oil prices to today’s levels.

So we are to learn pretty soon should RIYADH choose the path of the utter and complete collapse of the kingdom, or the path of giving power to the young and pragmatic technocrats who are going to pursue a comprehensive oil policy. Either way, SAUDI ARABIA will be forced to put an end to the costly military adventures in SYRIA and YEMEN as well as its confrontations with RUSSIA and IRAN.

By Peter Lvov via New Eastern Outlook

MIDDLE EAST: WHAT’S REALLY GOING ON WITH THE OIL?

TOO MANY THINGS DON’T CALCULATE TODAY IN REGARD TO THE DRAMATIC FALL IN THE WORLD OIL PRICE

NEXT OIL SHOCK IMMINENT? 

If there is any single price of any commodity that determines the growth or slowdown of our economy, it is the price of crude oil. Too many things don’t calculate today in regard to the dramatic fall in the world oil price. In June 2014 major oil traded at $103 a barrel. With some experience following the geopolitics of oil and oil markets, one can smell a big skunk. Here are some things that simply don’t add up.

On January 15 the US benchmark oil price, WTI (WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE), closed trading at $29, the lowest since 2004. True, there’s a glut of at least some 1 million barrels a day overproduction in the world and that’s been the case for over a year.

True, the lifting of IRAN sanctions will bring new oil on to a glutted market, adding to the downward price pressure of the present market.

Background Information: OIL POLICIES

PETROIMPERIALISM AND 'STRATEGIC INTERESTS'

However, days before US and EU sanctions were lifted on IRAN on January 17, SEYYID MOHSEN GHAMSARI, the head of international affairs at National IRANIAN Oil Company stated that IRAN, “…will try to enter the market in a way to make sure the boosted production will not cause a further drop in prices…We will be producing as much as the market can absorb.”  So the new entry of IRAN post-sanctions onto world oil markets is not the cause for the sharp oil fall since January 1.

Also not true is that oil import demand from CHINA has collapsed with a supposed collapse of CHINA’S economy. In the year to November 2015 CHINA imported more, significantly more, 8.9% more, year on year, to 6.6 million barrels a day to become the world’s largest oil importer.

GIVEN THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS, IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE PRICE OF OIL SHOULD RISE, NOT FALL

Add to the boiling cauldron that constitutes today’s world oil market the political risk that has been building dramatically since September, 2015 and the RUSSIAN decision to come to the call of SYRIA’S President, BASHAR AL ASSAD with formidable airstrikes against terrorist infrastructure. Add as well the dramatic break in relations between RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN’S TURKEY and MOSCOW since TURKEY, a NATO member, committed a brazen act of war by shooting down a RUSSIAN fighter jet over SYRIAN airspace. All of this would suggest prices of oil should be going up, not down.

SAUDI’S STRATEGIC EASTERN PROVINCE

Then, for good measure, throw in the insanely provocative decision by SAUDI Defense Minister and de facto king, Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, to execute SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR, a SAUDI citizen. AL-NIMR, a respected SHI’ITE religious leader was charged with terrorism for calling in 2011 for more rights for SAUDI SHI’ITES. There are approximately 8 million SAUDI MUSLIMS loyal to SHI’ITE teachings rather that the ultra-strict WAHHABI SUNNI strain. His crime was to support protests calling for more rights for the oppressed SHIA minority, perhaps some 25% of the SAUDI population. The SHI’ITE population of SAUDIS is overwhelmingly concentrated in the Kingdom’s EASTERN PROVINCE.

Background Information: SUNNI VERSUS SHIA

SAUDIS DISCRIMINATION AND MISTREATMENT AGAINST SHIA IN ITS EASTERN PROVINCE COULD BACKFIRE

SAUDI KING WILL NOT GRANT ANY CONCESSIONS TO THE 8% SHIA POPULATION

HARDSHIP(APARTHEID) FOR SHIITES LIVING IN SAUDI ARABIA

The EASTERN PROVINCE of the Kingdom of SAUDI ARABIA is perhaps the most valuable piece of real estate on the planet, double the area of the Federal Republic of GERMANY but with a mere 4 million people. SAUDI ARAMCO, the state-owned oil company is based in DHAHRAN in the EASTERN PROVINCE.

The main SAUDI oil and gas fields are mostly in the EASTERN PROVINCE, onshore and offshore, including the world’s largest oil field, GHAWAR. Petroleum from the SAUDI fields, including GHAWAR, is shipped to dozens of countries from the oil port terminal of the RAS TANURA complex, the world’s biggest crude oil terminal. Some 80% of the near 10 million barrels of oil a day pumped out by SAUDI goes to RAS TANURA in the PERSIAN GULF where it is loaded on to supertankers bound for the west.

The EASTERN PROVINCE is also home to SAUDI ARAMCO’S ABQAIQ Plants facility, their biggest oil processing and crude stabilization facility with a capacity of 7 million barrels per day. It’s the primary oil processing site for ARABIAN extra light and ARABIAN light crude oils, and handles crude oil pumped from GHAWAR field.

TUG OF WAR - SHIA VERSUS SUNNI 

And it also happens that the majority of oil field and refinery blue collar workers in of the EASTERN PROVINCE are…SHI’ITE. They are said also to be sympathetic to the just-executed SHIA cleric, SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR. In the late 1980’s the SAUDI HEZBOLLAH AL-HEJAZ, led several attacks on oil infrastructure and also murdered SAUDI diplomats. They were allegedly trained in Iran.

And now there is a new destabilizing element to add to the political tensions building between SAUDI ARABIA and ERDOGAN’S TURKEY on the one side, flanked by servile ARAB GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL states, and on the other ASSAD’S SYRIA, IRAQ with a 60% SHI’ITE population and neighboring IRAN, aided presently militarily by RUSSIA. Reports are that the instable 30-year old Prince BIN SALMAN is about to me named King.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION: SUNNI VERSUS SHIA

NEW ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’SAND USA ARAMCO  TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE?

SUNNI-VERSUS-SHIA

RIYADH DOES NOT WANT A STRONG, OIL-PRODUCING IRAQ ON ITS BORDER WITH WHOM IT MUST COMPETE WITH

On January 13, the Gulf Institute, a MIDDLE EAST think tank, in an exclusive report, wrote that 80-year old SAUDI King SALMAN AL-SAUD plans to abdicate his throne and install his son MOHAMMED as king. They report that the present King “has been making the rounds visiting his brothers seeking support for the move that will also remove the current crown prince and AMERICAN favorite, the hardline MOHAMMED BIN NAIF, from his positions as the crown prince and the minister of interior. According to sources familiar with the proceedings, SALMAN told his brothers that the stability of the SAUDI monarchy requires a change of the succession from lateral or diagonal lines to a vertical order under which the king hands power to his most eligible son.”

On December 3, 2015, the GERMAN BND intelligence service leaked a memo to the press warning of the increasing power being acquired by Prince SALMAN, someone they characterized as unpredictable and emotional. Citing the kingdom’s involvement in SYRIA, LEBANON, BAHRAIN, IRAQ and YEMEN, the BND stated, referring to Prince SALMAN, “The previous cautious diplomatic stance of older leaders within the royal family is being replaced by a new impulsive policy of intervention.”

Background Information: SAUDI ROYALTY

SAUDI ARABIA: THE NEXT GEOPOLITICAL TSUNAMI?

YET OIL PRICES FALL?

The ominous element in this more than ominous situation revolving around the center of world petroleum and natural gas reserves, the MIDDLE EAST, is the fact that in the recent weeks oil prices, which had temporarily stabilized at an already low $40 range in December, now have plunged another 25% to around $29, outlook grim. CITIGROUP has forecast $20 oil is possible. GOLDMAN SACHS recently came out saying that it may take lows of $20 a barrel to restabilize world oil markets and get rid of the glut of supply.

According to F. WILLIAM ENGDAHL’S view there is something very big, very dramatic building up in world oil markets over the coming several months, something most of the world doesn’t expect.

DUBIOUS WHEELING AND DEALING OF SHADOW BANKS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 

The last time GOLDMAN SACHS and their WALL STREET cronies made a dramatic prediction in oil prices was in summer 2008. At that time, amid the growing pressures on WALL STREET banks of the spreading US sub-prime real estate meltdown, just before the LEHMAN BROTHERS collapse of September that year, GOLDMAN SACHS wrote that oil was headed for $200 a barrel. It had just hit a high of $147. At that time ENGDAHL wrote an analysis saying just the opposite was likely, based on the fact that there was a huge oversupply in world oil markets that curiously, was only being identified by LEHMAN BROTHERS. He was told by an informed CHINESE source that WALL STREET banks like JP MORGAN CHASE were hyping the $200 price to convince AIR CHINA and other big CHINA state oil buyers to buy every drop of oil at $147 it could before it hit $200, an advice that fed the rising price.

Then by December, 2008 the Brent benchmark oil price was down to $47 a barrel. The LEHMAN Crisis, a deliberate political decision of US Treasury Secretary a former GOLDMAN SACHS chairman, HENRY PAULSEN, in September 2008, plunged the world into financial crisis and deep recession in the meantime. Did PAULSEN’S cronies at GOLDMAN SACHS and other key WALL STREET mega-banks such as CITIGROUP or JP MORGAN CHASE know in advance that PAULSEN was planning the LEHMAN crisis to force Congress to give him carte blanche bailout powers with the unprecedented TARP funds of $700 billion? In the event, GOLDMAN SACHS and friends reportedly made a gigantic profit betting against their own $200 predictions using leveraged derivatives in oil futures.

KILLING THE SHALE OIL ‘COWBOYS’ FIRST

Today the US shale oil industry, the largest source of rising US oil output since 2009 or so, is hanging by its fingernails on the edge of a cliff of massive bankruptcies. In recent months shale oil production has barely begun to decline, some 93,000 barrels in November, 2015.

The Big Oil cartel–EXXONMOBIL, CHEVRON, BP and SHELL–began dumping their shale leases onto the market two years ago. The shale oil industry in the US today is dominated by what BP or EXXON refer to as “the cowboys,” mid-sized aggressive oil companies, not the majors. WALL STREET banks like JP MORGAN CHASE or CITIGROUP who historically finance Big Oil, as well as Big Oil itself, clearly would shed no tears at this point were the shale boom to bust, leaving them again in control of the world’s most important market. The financial institutions who lent hundreds of billions of dollars to the shale “cowboys” in the past five years have their next semi-annual loan review in April. With prices hovering at or near the $20 range, we can expect a new, far more serious wave of actual shale oil company bankruptcies. Unconventional oil, including CANADA’S huge ALBERTA TAR SANDS oil will soon be a thing of the past too.

That alone will not restore oil to the $70-90 levels that the big oil industry players and their WALL STREET banks would find comfortable. The glut coming out of the MIDDLE EAST from SAUDI ARABIA and her GULF ARAB allies has to be dramatically cut. Yet SAUDIS show no sign of doing so. This is what seems disturbing in regards to the entire picture.

IS SOMETHING VERY UGLY BREWING IN THE PERSIAN GULF THAT WILL DRAMATICALLY PUSH OIL PRICES UP LATER THIS YEAR?

Is a real shooting war between SHI’ITE and SAUDI WAHHABI oil states brewing? Until now it has been a proxy war in SYRIA primarily. Since the execution of the SHI’ITE cleric and IRANIAN storming of the SAUDI Embassy in TEHERAN, leading to a break in diplomatic ties by SAUDI and other SUNNI GULF ARAB states, the confrontation has become far more direct.

Background Information: ENERGY STRATEGIES 

ENERGY HOT SPOT: EASTERN MED

REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE?

THE US-SAUDI OIL PRICE MANIPULATION IS AIMED AT DESTABILIZING SEVERAL STRONG OPPONENTS OF US GLOBALIST POLICIES.

ISLAMIC PIPELINE

Dr. HOSSEIN ASKARI, former adviser to the SAUDI Finance Ministry, stated, “If there is a war confronting IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA, oil could overnight go to above $250, but decline back down to the $100 level. If they attack each other’s loading facilities, then we could see oil spike to over $500 and stay around there for some time depending on the extent of the damage.”

Everything points towards another worldwide oil shock. It seems it’s almost always about oil. As HENRY KISSINGER reportedly said back during another oil shock in the mid-1970’s when EUROPE and the US faced an OPEC oil embargo and long lines at the gas pumps, “If you control the oil, you control entire nations.” That obsession with control is rapidly destroying our civilization. It’s time to focus on peace and development, not on competing to be the biggest oil mogul on the planet.

Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from the article originally written by  F. William Engdahl who is a strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

LIBYAN INTERVENTION 2016 – THIS TIME WITH THE PARTICIPATION OF RUSSIA?

US-RUSSIAN MARINES SET UP BRIDGEHEAD IN E. LIBYA FOR CAMPAIGN AGAINST ISIS

Via DEBKAfile’s

President BARACK OBAMA resolved earlier this month, much to the surprise of WASHINGTON insiders, to open a third anti-terror front in LIBYA to eradicate the ISLAMIC FRONT’S tightening grip on the country.

Related Topic:  LIBYAN INTERVENTION - TAKE 2?

NEED FOR A FRESH NATOINTERVENTION IN LIBYA (23 Jan 2016)

While collaborating with RUSSIA in the SYRIAN arena, and with the IRANIANS and the IRAQI army and SUNNIS in IRAQ, OBAMA took his close aides by surprise by another decision – to lead the LIBYA campaign again in conjunction with RUSSIA, as well as with concerned WESTERN EUROPE allies.

The first step in this campaign took place this weekend: A group of US, RUSSIAN, FRENCH and ITALIAN Special Forces quietly landed at a point south of TOBRUK near the LIBYAN-EGYPTIAN frontier. Standing by after preparing the ground were some 1,000 BRITISH SAS troops.

The landing area is located some 144 kilometers from DARNAH, the main bastion of extremist LIBYAN Islamic groups linked to AL QAEDA or ISIS, of which the ultra-violent ANSAR AL SHARIA is the most powerful.

RUSSIAN – USA COLLABORATION, THE FIRST IN MANY DECADES

The joint US-RUSSIAN war offensive building up in LIBYA, the first such collaboration in many decades, may be seen as an extension of their expanding military partnership in SYRIA, DEBKAfile’s military sources report.

Preparations for the campaign were assigned to two special operational commands set up at the PENTAGON and at the US Central Command, CENTCOM, in TAMPA, FLORIDA.

According to the scenario sketched in advance by DEBKA Weekly, large-scale US air, naval and ground units are to spearhead the new coalition’s combined assault on the main LIBYAN redoubts of ISIS, AL QAEDA, ANSAR AL-SHARIA and other radical Islamist organizations. Cruise missiles strikes will blast them from US, BRITISH, FRENCH and ITALIAN warships on the MEDITERRANEAN.

At the peak of the assault, large-scale US, BRITISH and FRENCH marines will land on shore for an operation first billed as the largest allied war landing since the 1952 KOREAN War. The attachment of RUSSIAN forces was negotiated later.

According to this scenario, one group will be dropped ashore from the GULF OF SIDRA (see attached map) to seize the town of SIRTE, a city of 50,000, where ISIS has located its central military command center in LIBYA.

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WILL BE GOING INTO LIBYA FOR THE SECOND TIME IN FOUR YEARS

This group will then split up into two task forces.

One will head south to take over TRIPOLI and its oil fields 370 kilometers away and reinstate LIBYA’S central government, which had been exiled to TOBRUK, at its seat in the capital.

On its way to TRIPOLI, the force will take control of three renegade towns: MISRATA, ZLITEN and KHOMS.                 

The second task force will head north to capture the eastern LIBYAN capital of BENGHAZI, seizing RAS LANUF, 200 kilometers east of SIRTE, en route. A second marine force will meanwhile land in eastern LIBYA to capture the radical Islamist stronghold of DARNAH, a port city with 150,000 inhabitants.

The OBAMA administration will therefore be going into LIBYA for the second time in four years – only this time up front and on the ground - for three objectives:

1. Control of LIBYA’S oil and gas fields.

2. Stripping ISIS of its jumping-off base for terrorizing EUROPE, especially ITALY, from across the MEDITERRANEAN.

3. Saving TUNISIA, ALGERIA and MOROCCO from the noose ISIS and AL QAEDA are pulling around them from their back yard.  

Background Information: USA AND LIBYA

WASHINGTON’S AL QAEDA ALLY NOW LEADING ISIS IN LIBYA

LIBYA – VICTIM OF “ENERGY PIPELINE POLITICS”

AN EXTENDED WAR COMING TO LIBYA? 

By Salman Rafi via Asia times

The so-called global ‘anti-terror’ front seems to be expanding its tentacles as leaders of the ‘free world’ plan to end the terrorist threat posed by the ISLAMIC STATE (IS). Thanks to their ‘wise’ policy of funding proxy groups, IS is reported to have been ‘quite successful’ in capturing a lot of territory rich in oil in LIBYA.

Such groups, whether in LIBYA or in the MIDDLE EAST, owe their existence as well as financial and fighting strength (whatever they have) to “certain powers” that aim at establishing a regime of domination, if not unchallenged hegemony, on global political-economy. Hence, the saga of “oil wars” and “energy pipeline politics”– key pillars of this regime of domination.

Background Information: LIBYA’S NATURAL RESOURCES

LIBYA AND ITS NATURAL RESOURCES - THE CROWN OF AFRICA

‘Oil’ continues to be the cause of many wars being fought today and also the most important source of funding them. Perhaps, an allusion to the fast decreasing financial ability of the “great powers” to fund these wars through ‘shadow money.’ That is to say, if terrorist groups like IS can conveniently extract oil and also sell it in the market, they do not particularly need secret financial assistance from their mentors. Hence, IS’ “oil drive” in SYRIA as well as LIBYA.

WHAT’S BEHIND THE CURRENT DECLINE IN OIL PRICES?

The question these days however is, if with oil prices at an all-time low, one would imagine that IS should also feel loss in revenues from illegal oil trade. 

That is if IS is really funding its operations solely through oil trade.  On the other hand one could ask if the current decline in oil prices is a deliberate strategy initiated by powerful international entities to severely hamper IS expansion and operations, by making IS run out of its main source of income and thereby eradicate IS by means of “economic warfare” instead of airstrikes.   

But given the fact that IS is also a lucrative business for the international weapons industry (and car industry (Toyota), it seems), one has to be cautious with any assumptions regarding the decimation of IS, especially if the persisting allegations that IS is the creation of Western entities such as the CIA, are true. 

Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring.

Were the media reports (and some official statements) to be believed, the IS has already established its control over more than 240 kilometers of LIBYAN coastline. The number of IS militants in the area is estimated to exceed 5,000 and among them, besides LIBYANS, are former citizens of various ARAB, AFRICAN and EUROPEAN states.

LIBYA – A REGROUPING PLACE FOR IS?

Hence, the December 1, 2015 warning by the UN observers that Libya is turning into a key stronghold of IS –implying, indirectly though, that the IS has found a good hiding place to regroup and re-organize itself in LIBYA after facing mounted bombing from RUSSIAN side and reasonably successful ground operations by the SYRIAN Army in SYRIA.

RUSSIA’S specific targeting of IS’ oil tankers in SYRIA certainly has done damage to the groups’ financial strength, prompting them to intensify attacks in LIBYA to capture oil reservoirs. This goal is to be achieved by getting hold of LIBYAN ports, strategically important roads, intersections, and the better part of LIBYA’S oil terminals to the south of AJDABIYA.

Background Information: REGROUPING OF IS

POROUS BORDERS TURN LIBYA INTO RADICAL SANCTUARY

Islamists’ assault on the port of ES SIDER in January leading to a prolonged fire fight with the defense units entrusted with its security reveals they have been actively pursuing this goal. The estimated income one can get from LIBYA’S oil amounts to a whopping $100 billion a year. (That figure might not be correct for 2016 since the oil price seems to be plunging further every month)

On January 12, some other attacks were reported. IS tried to seize export terminals in the so-called “oil crescent” of northern LIBYA, killing 56 people in two suicide bombings in ZLITEN and RAS LANOUF, east of TRIPOLI.

“On Sunday night, the guards intercepted three boats trying to enter the oil port of ZUEITINA,” said ALI AL-HASSI, spokesman for the guards protecting oil facilities for LIBYA’S “recognised government.”

IS fighters have stepped up their attacks on LIBYA’S oil facilities since the country’s two major political factions agreed last month to a UN-negotiated deal aimed at creating a unity government by mid-January. A national unity government backed by loyal security forces could take back control of the country’s oil facilities. In this context, IS not only seems to be aiming at controlling LIBYA’S oil for itself but also disrupting its supply to put the would-be unity government in considerable financial jeopardy as soon as it comes into existence.

Background Information: IS IN LIBYA

ISLAMIC STATE HAS EMERGED IN LIBYA, SPECIFICALLY IN THE CITY OF DERNA

By creating such chaos in LIBYA, IS is planning to use it as a base camp to re-group, re-organize itself financially and militarily to extend its operations not only in AFRICA but also in the EUROPEAN continent. Perhaps, a big reason for the ‘WEST’ to worry about.

Background Information: THREAT FOR EUROPE

LIBYA’S INSTABILITY IS ALREADY SPILLING OVER INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN

DEVASTATING RESULT OF 2011 WESTERN MILITARY INTERVENTION IN LIBYA

Here is how LIBYA can boost the groups’ military capacity. Since the beginning of crisis in LIBYA in 2011, the country has turned into a haven for weapons suppliers/smugglers. Apart from it, the destruction of the LIBYAN state as a direct result of Western military intervention in 2011 also marked the uncontrolled spread of weapon supplies in the country and along its borders. As a result, the IS was able to take control of weapons supplies destined to government militias in TRIPOLI.

Background Information: 2011 MILITARY INTERVENTION

AFTERMATH OF THE 2011 MILITARY INTERVENTION IN LIBYA

While some may tend to disagree or even deny that IS is gaining easy access to oil and weapons in LIBYA, it can hardly be denied that LIBYA is fast turning into IS’ new ‘international capital.’

Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring

PAYBACK TIME FOR BEING LEFT OUT OF THE LIBYAN EQUATION

Unlike inLIBYA, RUSSIA and CHINA this time around will not tolerate to be left out ofthe SYRIAN equation and energy game

RUSSIA'S REVENGE FOR LIBYA

As mentioned numerous times, RUSSIA and CHINA felt that they were left out of the equation regarding the LIBYAN operation instigated by the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN. CHINA and RUSSIA invested heavily in LIBYA prior to the toppling of the LIBYAN regime, only to find out that they were kept completely out of the picture regarding the true intentions the Western coalition force had in mind with LIBYA once the regime was removed and the airstrikes sanctioned by the UN Security Council. CHINA and RUSSIA were lured into voting for the intervention without being told about the true intentions of the Western coalition, namely tap the oil reserves of LIBYA.

Subsequently RUSSIA and CHINA learned their lesson and thus would not make the same mistake regarding SYRIA, permitting LIBYAN style intervention by WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition forces. No matter that SYRIA lacks oil reserves or other natural resources worth fighting over, their veto was more of a symbolic gesture telling WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition forces: that’s how far you can go this time around, but no further.

Further we wrote in 2013:

ENERGY DEALS RUSSIA AND CHINA INKED WITH MUAMMAR QADDAFI PRIOR TO WESTERN MILITARY INTERVENTION

According to some analysts this instability could also be triggered deliberately by certain foreign entities who invested heavily in LIBYA’S oil and fossil extraction prior to the military intervention in LIBYA. When coalition forces decided to intervene in LIBYA they did not consider the consequences such intervention would have on the geopolitical landscape.

With the aim to gain control over LIBYA’S oil reserves WESTERN coalition forces thought they could outwit CHINA and RUSSIA who also invested heavily in LIBYA’S lucrative oil industry. Lured into voting in favor of the UN resolution which in the end paved the way for Military Intervention in LIBYA, RUSSIA and CHINA expected to receive their fair slice of the “energy cake” once the intervention was concluded, instead they were left out of the equation, losing millions of dollars of investments in LIBYA, for all energy deals RUSSIA and CHINA inked with Muammar Qaddafi prior to the military intervention suddenly became void, leaving the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN the sole benefiters of the entire operation.

Note from the Editor: Above paragraphs were written by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring in June 2012 and October 2013 and included into this analysis

HENCE, THE NEED FOR A FRESH NATO INTERVENTION.

The possibility of a NATO military operation in LIBYA has been confirmed by a LIBYAN representative in the UNITED NATIONS. According to him, four NATO countries (the UNITED STATES, ITALY, FRANCE and the UNITED KINGDOM) are prepared to launch air strikes against IS strongholds in LIBYA, which would be later supported by ground troops, which, in turn, should establish control over the territories occupied by IS.

Although it looks simple enough, it is not so, however. That a full scale NATO intervention has not taken place yet is not simply due to any fictional strategic problem. The WEST, as it stands, is waiting for the eventual establishment of the so-called (western-backed) ‘Unity Government’ in LIBYA — a government that would then ‘invite’ NATO to intervene, making things for NATO countries much easier, especially compared with the sort of troubles they had to face with regard to getting legal authorization for intervening in SYRIA. So much for the WEST’S craving for a “legitimate” intervention! (Since last week this western – backed government has been formed and sworn in.)

According to some credible sources, the P3+5 will now seek a UN Security Council resolution to authorise intervention in LIBYA to “train” the local police, army and coastguard. Special Forces from BRITAIN, FRANCE and the US will also conduct counter-terrorism operations against the LIBYAN branch of IS and other Islamist groups.

As part of the military operations, AMERICAN and FRENCH air strikes will be required, with BRITISH jets unlikely to participate because of the commitment to fight IS in IRAQ (and now is SYRIA too), a WHITEHALL source was reported to have stated.

Background Information: USA AND LIBYA

WASHINGTON’S AL QAEDA ALLY NOW LEADING ISIS IN LIBYA

An extended war is, therefore, most certainly coming to LIBYA. The question is not ‘if’ but ‘when’ it will come. As reports indicate, it will be soon.

However, the important question that must be raised at this stage is how a fresh NATO intervention in LIBYA can contribute to “peace” when such an intervention back in 2011 is the very reason for today’s chaos? Will NATO’s fresh intervention be more “humanitarian” this time? And last but not least, will RUSSIA and CHINA be left out of the equation once again?

Written by Salman Rafi Sheikh, who is a freelance journalist and research analyst of international relations and Pakistan affairs, via Asian Times

Related articles on LIBYA that might be of interest:

THE POST-GADDAFI LIBYA IS NOT REAL

IT’S ALL ABOUT WATER, OIL AND THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

THE WAR ON LIBYA AND THE WEST'S AFRICAN GEOPOLITICS

LIBYA - DOOMED FROM DAYONE

VOLATILE SAHEL REGION