US, TURKISH, BRITISH, JORDANIAN and FRENCH
forces are standing ready around SYRIAN borders for the order to go forward
still to come from US President Barack Obama. SYRIAN President Bashar Assad is
regrouping his army in defense array in strategic parts of Damascus, while
planting mines and bomb traps in abandoned bases. Convoys carrying missiles,
shells and canisters armed with chemical and biological weapons continue to ply
roads to the north, while the airlift of Iranian arms is rerouted to northern
air bases.
The situation in SYRIA as it stands Saturday, Dec. 8. is summed up by debkafile’s
military sources:
1. Assad has so far
resisted rebel pressure to withdraw with his army from the capital,
Damascus, but as in SYRIA’S largest town, Aleppo, he has regrouped his forces
for the defense of centers of government against the rebel push from the east.
For now, his army fully controls the western districts of Damascus and areas up
to Zabadani on the LEBANESE border. This keeps the SYRIAN ruler’s direct
military corridor open to a key prop of his regime, Hizballah, on the other
side of the border.
2. His second key prop is the air
passage plied by IRANIAN transports for keeping his army furnished with
arms and ammunition. Up until midweek, the Iranian planes, coming in at the
rate of three or four transports a day, were landing at Damascus military air
base, which is section of its international airport. Friday, Nov. 7, the rebels
declared both the civilian and military sections of Damascus airport a military
target. All planes were warned that by landing there they risked being
shot down by the shells or anti-air missiles recently delivered to them by QATAR or
booty taken from the SYRIAN army bases they captured.
Following the rebel warning, the IRANIAN transports were
being rerouted to the Shayrat and Tiyas airbase between the northern SYRIAN
towns of Homs and Palmyra.
This necessitates intense SYRIAN army effort to keep the roads open for the
incoming IRANIAN supplies to reach the hands of the units fighting in Damascus,
Aleppo and Latakia.
3. SYRIAN engineering units are
systematically planting mines and booby-trapping the buildings at the
bases from which the army has retreated. Our military sources were told that
the quantity of explosives Assad’s troops are leaving in their wake would take years
to clear.
4. There has been no letup in the
military convoys heading north with missiles, shells and bombs containing
chemical arms.
Western intelligence sources say Assad is keeping the convoys moving on the
roads for two purposes:
One, as a red warning to the Western and Arab powers preparing to intervene in
the SYRIAN conflict that any attack or attempt to impose a no-fly zone over the
country would trigger a chemical offensive.
And two, to confuse his enemies: The
poison gas weapons apparently moving openly along SYRIAN highways may be decoys
to conceal the operational chemical warfare units which some Western
intelligence watchers suspect are kept hidden until Assad gives them the
order to strike.
THE SECRET WAR BETWEEN CHINA AND THE US FOR AFRICA'S
OIL RICHES
By Chris Mansur
via Oilprice
In the struggle to secure energy
resources, the great powers consider all states to be fair game. Indeed, this
is precisely what characterizes AMERICAN foreign policy in the modern era. When
it comes to economic and geopolitical interests, Washington seldom
differentiates between democratic leaders and despots, especially when those
interests involve oil. Currently, the stakes are high in the rush to secure oil
resources and nowhere is this more evident than in the SINO-AMERICAN rivalry in
AFRICA. Both states are competing to secure their share of oil supplies in
order to quench their addiction to the coveted ‘black gold.’
AMERICA’S RELIANCE ON FOREIGN OIL HAS DECREASED SINCE ITS
PEAK IN 2005, BUT NEVERTHELESS IS STILL VULNERABLE TO SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS
One of Washington’s primary energy
security concerns has been to diversify its sources of foreign oil. During the
1970s oil crisis, the UNITED STATES imported one-third of its petroleum. Now,
it imports approximately 11.4 million barrels per day of petroleum (which
includes crude oil and petroleum products), amounting to 45 percent of all
petroleum consumed in AMERICA. While most of its foreign oil comes from the WESTERN
HEMISPHERE, a sizable portion comes from AFRICA and the PERSIAN GULF . Despite
the fact that AMERICA’S reliance on foreign oil has decreased since its peak in
2005, it is still vulnerable to supply disruptions, oil price shocks and OPEC
supply squeezing. For Washington, the
need to decrease its vulnerability to foreign oil is a principle national
security interest, and the solution lies in diversifying imports away from over - reliance on any one region.
WEST AFRICAN OIL REMAINS STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT FOR U.S.
POLICY MAKERS, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT PROVIDES AN ALTERNATIVE TO PERSIAN GULF OIL.
WEST AFRICA is also geographically
closer, making transportation less costly than oil from the PERSIAN GULF. The
high-quality sweet crude that is produced by the GULF OF GUINEA states is
crucial to the U.S. market. As such, oil corporations are doing whatever they
can to secure this important hydrocarbon and Washington is fervently promoting
free trade in AFRICA in order to make it easier for them.
SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA is home to two of the largest oil-producing states: NIGERIA and ANGOLA. (See:http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/argentina-and-africa.html
) These two states account for 53
percent and 26 percent of total U.S. petroleum imports from SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA respectively.
Thus, it is no surprise that the two states also receive the largest share of
U.S. security assistance to AFRICA.
ASIDE OF INCREASED MILITARY PRESENCE, THE USA ALSO EXPANDED
ITS COVERT INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS ACROSS AFRICA
In order to boost its influence in AFRICA
and secure the loyalty of governments, the U.S. has provided military arms and
developed military training programs with individual AFRICAN governments. To
increase its military presence, it has acquired basing rights and access to
airfields in DJIBOUTI, UGANDA, MALI, SENEGAL and GABON, along with port
facilities in MOROCCO and TUNISIA. In addition, it has also expanded its covert
intelligence operations across AFRICA in the name of combatting terrorism. Yet,
these operations also serve another purpose. By expanding its military presence
in AFRICA, Washington is reminding its rivals that it is both willing and able
to respond to threats to its strategic interests, the likes of which include
the unimpeded flow of AFRICAN oil.
AFRICOM
In 2007, the U.S. African Command
AFRICOM was established as the ninth of the Unified Combatant Commands under
the supervision of the U.S. Department of Defence (DoD). The alleged purpose is
to oversee AMERICAN military operations on the AFRICAN continent in order to
enhance the stability of the region and to promote U.S. national security
objectives. Many critics of AFRICOM believe there is a direct relationship
between the existence of AFRICOM and America’s interest in AFRICAN oil.
There is a parallel between AMERICA’S
increased military presence in AFRICA and its military expansion into the PERSIAN
GULF since the establishment of the Carter Doctrine. While this endeavour is
noticeably more limited in AFRICA and does not involve any significant
oil-for-security arrangements- at least, not yet- there is no doubt that AMERICA
would respond with force if oil supplies were threatened. The difference is in
style, not substance; AMERICA seeks a more subtle presence in order to engage
in rapid combat and covert operations, when necessary. This operational
capacity is equal parts the U.S. bending to the strategic realities of the
21stcentury and a response to AFRICAN governments, for obvious historical
reasons, not welcoming permanent military bases on their soil.
ALLEGEDLY AFRICOM WAS ESTABLISHED BECAUSE OF CHINA'S
INCREASED PRESENCE IN AFRICA
There may be another, often overlooked,
purpose of AFRICOM. The presence of CHINA in AFRICA is creating some concern
for AMERICAN officials. Beijing is competing with Washington for both the
loyalty of AFRICAN governments and the steady supply of AFRICAN oil. There is a
growing sentiment in Washington that CHINA’S presence in AFRICA could challenge
U.S. security interests now and in the years to come.
Background
Information:SeeCHINA’S WINNING STRATEGY IN AFRICA
CHINA’S unconditional financial aid
and its steady flow of cheap goods to AFRICAN states (in exchange for oil
contracts) have often made it a more appealing trading partner than AMERICA.
Indeed, a 2005 DoD report indicated that CHINA’S need to forge close ties with AFRICAN
governments to secure energy supplies could lead to ‘a more activist [CHINESE]
military presence abroad’. In this regard, AFRICOM would monitor CHINESE
activity and contain any CHINESE incursion into AMERICAN zones of interest by
flexing AMERICA’S naval presence.
CHINA PERCEIVES ITS PRESENCE IN AFRICA AS A CONTINUATION OF
ITS LEGACY AND AS AN IMPORTANT GEOPOLITICAL INTEREST ON THE ROAD TO MAJOR POWER
STATUS
The stakes for Beijing, however,
seem to be greater for three reasons. First, CHINA has an annual GDP growth
rate of 7.4 percent. To sustain this, the CHINESE economy relies heavily on the
consumption of oil. It is constantly seeking new sources of oil to meet its
domestic demand, but its AFRICAN oil supplies are indispensable. Second, CHINA imports
more oil from AFRICA than AMERICA does (30 percent vs. 20 percent). CHINA’S oil
imports from AFRICA will likely grow to be bigger than AMERICA’S in the decades
to come, and CHINA is expected to take AMERICA’S spot as the world’s biggest
oil importer very soon. By 2020, CHINA will import approximately 65 percent of its
oil. Lastly, CHINA is not a newcomer to AFRICA. In the 1960s and 1970s, it
supported many national liberation movements, provided a large share of arms to
post-independence governments and invested heavily in national infrastructure
projects. In this sense, Beijing perceives its presence in AFRICA as a
continuation of its legacy and as an important geopolitical interest on the
road to major power status.
However, AFRICA might not provide
the most secure alternative to PERSIAN GULF oil. AFRICA’S production capacity
is more limited than that of the PERSIAN GULF, and it also has fewer proven
reserves. In terms of aggregate global oil production, AFRICA is still lagging
behind other major crude oil-producing regions. If we assume that ‘peak oil’
estimates are accurate, then (according to BP’s reserves-to-production ratio) SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA, as a whole, has an oil-producing capacity that will end by 2030. This
would leave only NIGERIA and SUDAN as major oil-producing states in the region
(of course, this assumes that production will remain constant and that no new reserves
will be discovered).
In addition, AFRICA’S political
environment can be as unstable as the PERSIAN GULF. Internal instability, the
rise of transnational terrorist networks, military coups, civil strife, endemic
corruption and the conflict-stricken NIGER DELTA all pose significant problems
for business operations in the AFRICAN continent.
Background Information:AFRICA the Forgotten and underestimated Continent
AMERICA must show restraint in its
expansion into AFRICA. While a military conflict with CHINA over access to AFRICAN
oil may seem presently unrealistic- especially given AMERICA and CHINA’S mutual
economic dependence- future regional developments and the further
militarization of the region could shift the SINO-AMERICAN rivalry into a more
adversarial direction. The ‘military security paradox’ is an important lesson
to be learned by the great powers. Militarizing a region in the pursuit of
regional stability and security can often have the opposite effect. Only time
will tell if Washington and Beijing heed this warning.
Following the rebel warning, the IRANIAN transports were
being rerouted to the Shayrat and Tiyas airbase between the northern SYRIAN
towns of Homs and Palmyra. 
