Thursday, 26 March 2015

LIBYA AND THE UNITED NATIONS - Part 1



IS THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL SUPPORTING WESTERN MILITARY AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN LIBYA?


Executive Summary:

  • QATAR AND ITS PROXY WAR WITH SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPT IN LIBYA
  • UN SECURITY COUNCIL SUPPORTING WESTERN MILITARY AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN LIBYA
  • EGYPT WIDENING WARS IN NORTH AFRICA AND WEST ASIA
  • WARMONGERING MAINSTREAM MEDIA?
  • GRAB FOR THE CENTRAL BANK OF LIBYA BY INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
  • TRIPOLI THE SEAT OF POWER OF THE MOST IMPORTANT ORGANIZATIONS, THE CENTRAL BANK AND NATIONAL OIL COMPANY
  • TRACKING ISIS FINANCIAL BACKERS – NOT REALLY A BIG DEAL FOR BRITAIN AND THE USA – IF ONLY THEY REALLY WISH TO DO SO
  • BOTH SIDES OF THE LIBYAN POLITICAL DIVIDE ARE SUPPORTED BY EXTERNAL FORCES
  • NTC MOVED TO TOBRUK-BAYDA, WHEREAS THE WESTS RECOGNIZED GOVERNMENT IS BASED IN BAYDA
  • P3 OPPOSED CALLS FROM THE AFRICAN UNION AND FROM THE BRICS STATES FOR A FULL EVALUATION OF THE NATO INTERVENTION IN 2011
  • REAPING THE HARVEST OF WESTERN INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS IN LIBYA


The hysteria over the possible deployment of WESTERN troops to WEST ASIA and NORTH AFRICA is again on the rise. With every passing day there is some new headline about rape, mutilations, beheadings and mass killings by ISIS. For the last nine months the news about these killings came out of SYRIA and IRAQ, but as of late there was the video clip of the beheading of 21 EGYPTIAN workers in LIBYA.

The Pope has called the beheadings, “barbaric assassinations.” Naturally, the world vented and there was righteous outrage all around. What was missing, however, was a sober analysis of what created the conditions for this so-called “Islamic State” to grow in the LEVANT and now to appear in LIBYA.

QATAR AND ITS PROXY WAR WITH SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPT IN LIBYA

In light of the beheadings the governments of FRANCE and EGYPT called for urgent discussions in the UN Security Council in order for the UN to lift the arms embargo against LIBYA. From ITALY, WESTERN news sources are calling for an attack on ISIS in LIBYA before it reaches EUROPE. At the same moment while the EGYPTIANS were soliciting political support from EUROPE for its intervention in LIBYA, the government of QATAR, which has been waging a proxy war with SAUDI ARABIA and EGYPT in LIBYA, withdrew its ambassador from EGYPT. Using the news organization AL JAZEERA to bring out its point of view, QATAR’S foreign ministry said DOHA had expressed reservations over the raids, stressing the need for “consultations before any unilateral military action against another member state.” The QATARI government was protesting the bombing of innocent civilians in LIBYA.


EGYPT WIDENING WARS IN NORTH AFRICA AND WEST ASIA


Some diplomats at the UNITED NATIONS claim that the government of EGYPT led by General ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI is seeking the green light from the UNITED NATIONS for more open military intervention in LIBYA. The EGYPTIAN military leadership has been involved on one side of the widening wars in NORTH AFRICA and WEST ASIA for some time, having participated in bombing of some factions in LIBYA last year. The beheadings of 21 EGYPTIAN workers in the town of SIRTE in LIBYA has been the new reason used by General SISI to launch a new wave of air strikes in LIBYA. Yet, although the beheadings had taken place in SIRTE, the aerial bombings took place in DERNIA, the seat of that faction of LIBYAN society that had been manipulated by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) since the wars in AFGHANISTAN in the eighties.

Background Information: DERNA

ISLAMIC STATE HAS ALSO EMERGED IN LIBYA, SPECIFICALLY IN THE CITY OF DERNA


WARMONGERING MAINSTREAM MEDIA?

Although this inconsistency in the actions of the government of EGYPT has been glossed over by the WESTERN mainstream media, these same vehicles of militarism expressed shock at the news of the beheadings of COPTIC CHRISTIANS in LIBYA, and the rise of the so-called ISLAMIC STATE in LIBYA.


Where was this media when there was the ethnic cleansing of TAWERGHA? How did this same media act as cheerleaders for the NATO intervention in 2011? The argument political analysts and observers have, is that the same WESTERN states and their strategic think tanks that drove the wars in IRAQ and the intervention in LIBYA cannot give leadership in the UNITED NATIONS over the questions of peace and reconciliation. ANGOLA, CHINA, MALAYSIA and VENEZUELA will stand condemned in the court of progressive public opinion if these countries in the UN Security Council allow the world to be railroaded into another UN supported deployment of troops to support western military and economic interests in LIBYA.

Creating an international commission that can document the role of NATO, EGYPT, SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR with a view to setting the conditions for an international force to intervene in LIBYA to disarm the militias could be a solution to the problem. Such an international force would exclude members of NATO and the current combatants in LIBYA: QATAR, SUDAN, SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY, the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES and EGYPT.

GRAB FOR THE CENTRAL BANK OF LIBYA BY INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

A closer examination of the beheadings in SIRTE and focus on the struggles over the CENTRAL BANK in LIBYA and how the NATO governments are maneuvering for their “internationally recognized” government to get their hands on the billions of dollars in reserves in LIBYA.

Background Information: LIBYA AND ITS MONETARY RESERVES

WALL STREET COULD NOT ALLOW TRIPOLI TO BE DEBT-FREE, to continue accumulating international financial possessions, and to be a creditor nation giving international loans and investing funds in other countries, particularly in AFRICA.

In 2008 GOLDMAN SACHS was given us$1.3 billion dollars by the LIBYAN investment authority. (Part 2 - BALKANIZATION of LIBYA)



TRIPOLI THE SEAT OF POWER OF THE MOST IMPORTANT ORGANIZATIONS, THE CENTRAL BANK AND NATIONAL OIL COMPANY

The so-called ISIS in LIBYA have mastered the art of propaganda and have learnt how to use the media to strike fear in the hearts and minds of the citizens of WESTERN EUROPE and NORTH AMERICA, while committing real crimes against humanity in the LEVANT. Military information operation is now such a central part of modern warfare, that those who have trained this JIHADIST front know how to produce slick media products for maximum shock value.


Central Bank Libya
Although the small base of LIBYANS who say that they adhere to ISIS in LIBYA is in the EAST in DERNIA, those who carried out the beheadings of the 21 EGYPTIAN workers choose the city of SIRTE. This was the birthplace of GADDAFI. It was the seat of the idea of the Constitutive Act of the African Union and it is near to the center of the institutions that hold real power in LIBYA: TRIPOLI. At the seat of power are two of the most important organizations for those who want to wield power, the CENTRAL BANK and the NATIONAL OIL COMPANY.



ISIS PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS (PSY OPS) PER EXCELLENCE

From all reports, the video of the beheadings had been skillfully produced with one of the beheaders pointing to EUROPE. This heinous media event had its desired effect. EUROPEAN newspapers have now carried stores about how ISIS considers LIBYA as the gateway to EUROPE. One BRITISH newspaper noted, “In ISIS we are observing a level of atrocity towards mankind that, post-Nazism, we hoped we would never again witness.”[1]


Every killing, beheading and rape has become a media event without real alternatives to the WESTERN drumbeat for perpetual war. Last year when the so-called ISIS made their appearance, it appeared that for westerners, ISIS was barbaric only when they killed westerners or those considered to be WESTERN allies in the region. In October 2014, Human Rights Watch reported that “Islamic State militants drove 600 SHIA, CHRISTIAN, and YAZIDI male prisoners into the middle of the desert, lined them up along the edge of a ravine, and executed them at point blank range.” [2]

TRACKING ISIS FINANCIAL BACKERS – NOT REALLY A BIG DEAL FOR BRITAIN AND THE USA – IF ONLY THEY REALLY WISH TO DO SO

BRITAIN and the USA who clearly understand and know the sources of finance, weapons and training for ISIS have joined in condemnation of the atrocities while retreating from exposing the real supporters of ISIS. The governments of BRITAIN, the UNITED STATES, FRANCE, ITALY, KUWAIT and SAUDI ARABIA have the capabilities to track the financial backers of ISIS.

ISIS is following a grand tradition of beheadings and cutting off of hands that had been perfected by repressive governments for centuries. The difference here is that the forces of ISIS were nurtured out of the somewhat reckless actions of WESTERN imperialism in NORTH AFRICA and WEST ASIA over the past twenty years.

Progressive intellectuals and anti-imperial forces have for long been pointing to the fact that the war against the regime of ASSAD in SYRIA by the SAUDIS provided the conditions for the rise of ISIS. Patrick Cockburn has spelt the regional and factional forces that coalesced into the formation that is now called ISIS in the book, ‘The Rise of Islamic State: ISIS and the New Sunni Revolution’. [3] This knowledge is kept away from WESTERN citizens as the military and political establishments skillfully use the atrocities of ISIS to promote their political agendas.

The BRITISH Foreign Secretary, PHILIP HAMMOND, condemned the murders in LIBYA and said the UK remains fully supportive of the UN’s efforts to build a national unity government for LIBYA. “Such barbaric acts strengthen our determination to work with our partners to counter the expanding terrorist threat to LIBYA and the region. Acts of terrorism should not be allowed to undermine LIBYA’S political transition. We remain fully supportive of the UN’s efforts to build a national unity government for LIBYA and to bring a political solution to the ongoing security crisis. Those who support terrorists can have no part in this process.”

The White House called the killings “despicable and cowardly.” “This wanton killing of innocents is just the most recent of the many vicious acts perpetrated by IS affiliated terrorists against the people of the region, including the murders of dozens of EGYPTIAN soldiers in the SINAI, which only further galvanises the international community to unite against IS,” said spokesman JOSH EARNEST. “This heinous act once again underscores the urgent need for a political resolution to the conflict in LIBYA, the continuation of which only benefits terrorist groups, including IS.” From the White House and from BRITAIN, the world is alerted to the fact that the West is working on “political resolution” to the conflict in LIBYA.

WHO IS THE SO-CALLED LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT IN LIBYA?

When the UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL passed the resolution that gave NATO the green light to intervene in LIBYA in 2011, it gained the support of a small group of opposition forces that called themselves the NATIONAL TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL (NTC). These LIBYANS created a political body with 33 representatives from most LIBYAN regions. The one thing they could agree on was opposition to GADDAFI, but they could not agree on how to develop a political program to reconstruct LIBYA.

After the fall of GADDAFI and the withdrawal of the NATO jets and Special Forces from QATAR, the NTC split into different factions. Those who had access to the weapons gained the upper hand. The UNITED STATES started out as a competitor with FRANCE and BRITAIN, seeking to install a transition process. The late Ambassador CHRISTOPHER STEVENS was one of the foremost articulators of the ‘transition’ plan with the agencies and contractors such as the CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT for International Peace, RAND CORPORATION, the NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE and the STATE DEPARTMENT travelling to LIBYA with consultancies to establish “good governance.” We learnt from the army newssheet ‘Stars and Stripes’ that under this transition plan, the US AFRICA COMMAND was supposed to gain a contract for US $600 million to train 8,000 LIBYAN soldiers.

Background Information: USA AFRICOM

AFRICOM EXPANDS MISSION IN AFRICA


As with all well laid plans, reality intervened. The civilian leaders of the NTC proved incapable of building basic political organizations and those with the guns who had been organized into militias refused to disarm.

BOTH SIDES OF THE LIBYAN POLITICAL DIVIDE ARE SUPPORTED BY EXTERNAL FORCES

At first, the plan was for the CENTRAL BANK to pay-off the more than 200,000 youths in these militias with monthly stipends, but as the elements with guns grasped the political and organizational weakness of those in the transitional parliament, they decided to flex their muscles. When these armed elements started kidnapping and killing the officials of the NTC, many of whom ran away to CAIRO, MALTA, DUBAI or to GENEVA, depending on their financial strength, the infighting between the militias and the bureaucrats consumed many of the NGO workers who had joined in the rebellion such as SALWA BUGAIGHIS.

Background Information:

ISLAM – A CONVENIENT TOOL FOR AMERICA’S GEO -STRATEGIC POLICIES


Small GULF entities such as the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES and QATAR took sides in the internecine battles providing weapons and logistics as the armed elements sidelined the politicians who had been anointed by the WEST to succeed in LIBYA. [4] Frederic Wehrey, writing for Foreign Affairs magazine last year, noted that both sides of the LIBYAN political divide are supported by external forces:
“EGYPT and the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (UAE) have backed DIGNITY, while QATAR, SUDAN, and TURKEY are purported to be backing DAWN.

Background Information:  DAWN AND DIGNITY

DIGNITY FRONT VERSUS DAWN FRONT 


NTC MOVED TO TOBRUK-BAYDA, WHEREAS THE WESTS RECOGNIZED GOVERNMENT IS BASED IN BAYDA

Contrary to some commentary, both sides have used force against civilians and elected institutions, and both show little sign of compromise. Despite WESTERN diplomatic and political support, and with the military support of EGYPT and the UAE, the rump of the NTC could not organize to defend themselves and gradually left TRIPOLI, settling to set up its Parliament in the far EAST in the area around TOBRUK-BAYDA. The seat of the WESTERN recognized government is supposed to be BAYDA.”


What is becoming evident is that the fighting in LIBYA is being supported by the staunchest allies of the UNITED STATES, BRITAIN, FRANCE and ITALY. These countries have pushed the UNITED NATIONS to pass a resolution to buy time for the factions of the LIBYAN political class that has been pushed out of TRIPOLI. This section of the LIBYAN political class is organized around the COUNCIL OF REPRESENTATIVES (COR). The State Department in their document on transition stated that, “The UNITED STATES government, the European Union, and several MIDDLE EASTERN governments have stated their view that the COR and the interim government led by AL THINNI are the legitimate governing bodies in the country.”

P3 OPPOSED CALLS FROM THE AFRICAN UNION AND FROM THE BRICS STATES FOR A FULL EVALUATION OF THE NATO INTERVENTION IN 2011

RUSSIA'S REVENGE FOR LIBYA

As mentioned numerous times, RUSSIA and CHINA felt that they were left out of the equation regarding the LIBYAN operation instigated by the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN in 2011.

CHINA and RUSSIA invested heavily in LIBYA prior to the toppling of the LIBYAN regime, only to find out that they were kept completely out of the picture regarding the true intentions the Western coalition force had in mind with LIBYA once the regime was removed, namely tap the oil reserves of LIBYA.

Subsequently RUSSIA and CHINA learned their lesson and thus would not make the same mistake regarding SYRIA, permitting LIBYAN style intervention by WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition forces. No matter that SYRIA lacks oil reserves or other natural resources worth fighting over, their veto was more of a symbolic gesture telling WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition forces: that’s how far you can go this time around, but no further.

Note from the Editor: Above paragraph was written by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring in June 2012 and included into this analysis

UNLIKE IN LIBYA, RUSSIA AND CHINA THIS TIME AROUND WILL NOT TOLERATE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE SYRIAN EQUATION AND ENERGY GAME

ENERGY DEALS RUSSIA AND CHINA INKED WITH MUAMMAR QADDAFI PRIOR TO THE MILITARY INTERVENTION

According to some analysts this instability could also be triggered deliberately by certain foreign entities who invested heavily in LIBYA’S oil and fossil extraction prior to the military intervention in LIBYA. When coalition forces decided to intervene in LIBYA they did not consider the consequences such intervention would have on the geopolitical landscape.

With the aim to gain control over Libya’s oil reserves WESTERN coalition forces thought they could outwit CHINA and RUSSIA who also invested heavily in LIBYA’S lucrative oil industry. Lured into voting in favor of the UN resolution which in the end paved the way for Military Intervention in LIBYA, RUSSIA and CHINA expected to receive their fair slice of the “energy cake” once the intervention was concluded, instead they were left out of the equation, losing millions of dollars of investments in LIBYA, for all energy deals RUSSIA and CHINA inked with Muammar Qaddafi prior to the military intervention suddenly became void, leaving the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN the sole benefiters of the entire operation.

Read also:

Note from the Editor: Above paragraph was written by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring in October 2013 and included into this analysis


With their diplomatic muscle in the Security Council of the UNITED NATIONS, NATO members, especially the P3 (BRITAIN, FRANCE and the UNITED STATES) have opposed calls from the AFRICAN UNION and from the BRICS states for a full evaluation of the NATO intervention in 2011. Instead, the P3 pushed for the naming of a SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE TO LIBYA. The Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, BERNARDINO LEÓN, was handed the task of giving meaning to the transition plans that had been hatched by WESTERN think tanks. LEON’S mandate was “to help establish a ceasefire, facilitate political dialogue and support the work of the House of Representatives and LIBYAN Government in establishing an inclusive political framework as part of the democratic transition.”

REAPING THE HARVEST OF WESTERN INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS IN LIBYA

Throughout the years of imperial opposition to MUAMAR GADDAFI, the WESTERN intelligence agencies cultivated the ISLAMISTS in LIBYA because political opposition to GADDAFI had taken religious forms. The WEST invested heavily in the EASTERN part of LIBYA and cities such as BENGHAZI and DERNIA built networks of fighters who were interspersed with WESTERN military forces in AFGHANISTAN and other sites of destabilization. More than eight years ago, a West Point study drew attention to the fact that the corridor which goes from BENGHAZI to TOBRUK, passing through the city of DARNAH (also called DERNIA) represented one of the greatest concentrations of jihadi terrorists to be found anywhere in the world.

It was from the East where the rebellion was stoked and after the fall of GADDAFI, it was from this same region where the CIA recruited JIHADISTS to fight against the ASSAD regime in SYRIA. However, these JIHADISTS could not be controlled and when they fell out, the world found out about the den of JIHADISTS in the EAST when the US Ambassador to LIBYA was consumed in the struggles between competing militias at a CIA facility in BENGHAZI in 2012. 


There is a long list of individuals that in the past worked with WESTERN intelligence operations and are now labelled as terrorists. AHMED ABU KHATTALA and ABU ANAS AL-LIBI are two such individuals who have been involved in the shadowy networks of JIHADISTs and western intelligence organizations. When AHMED ABU KHATTALA was picked up in LIBYA by Western military forces, the New York Times ran the story: “Brazen Figure May Hold Key to Mysteries: AHMED ABU KHATTALA Capture May Shed Light on BENGHAZI Attack.”[5]

In 2013, ABU ANAS AL-LIBI was captured on the streets of TRIPOLI by US Delta Force and AL-LIBI was quickly flown out of LIBYA. He was then extradited to NEW YORK to stand trial for helping to mastermind the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombing in NAIROBI, KENYA. ABDUL-HAMED AL-RUQUAI is another name for ABU ANAS AL-LIBI. His career as an operative with long connections to BRITISH and US intelligence services was about to be exposed in the trial which was supposed to start in January 2015. Then before his trial on terrorism charges was set to begin in MANHATTAN federal court, ANAS AL-LIBI died in custody.


This was a most convenient death because in his untimely death, the world will never know why the BRITISH government had released AL LIBI when BRITAIN knew full well the ties between the AL QUEDA forces and the extremists from LIBYA who wanted to fight GADDAFI. [6]

Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from the  original article written by Horace G. Campbell

Sunday, 22 March 2015

WESTERN BALKANS: EUROPE’S FORGOTTEN REGION



THE BALKANS ARE STILL POSED TO PLAGUE THE 21ST CENTURY


By Denis MacShane

This summer sees the 20th anniversary of the massacre of SREBRENICA. Eight thousand EUROPEANS were taken outside, their hands carefully tied behind their backs and SERBIAN soldiers shot them all in cold blood.
The mass graves had been dug, the exact amount of ammunition to carry out the executions given out, and food and drink brought for the soldiers carrying out this mass murder.

It was the worst single massacre by armed security forces of unarmed prisoners since the days of KATYN or the mass killings by GERMANS in World War II.
Twenty years after 1945, GERMANY was at peace with its neighbors, had normal diplomatic relations with the countries it once occupied or had annexed like AUSTRIA, and was at the heart of both NATO and the EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY.

Thanks to bold political leadership, the dreadful crimes of 1940-1945 faded into history, even if vivid in memory. Compare the 20th anniversary of 1945 to the 20th anniversary of 1995 in the WESTERN BALKANS, the region from CROATIA to GREECE, where no final settlement is in sight.

GREECE’S COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE DIPLOMATIC POLICY

GREECE’S current EUROZONE problems need no elaboration but GREECE has not helped itself with its counter-productive diplomatic policy of refusing to give normal diplomatic status to its two northern neighbors, MACEDONIA and KOSOVO.
CROATIA remains plagued by accusations of corruption and clientelism. Sixty thousand CROATIANS took out mortgages in SWISS francs. They now face a crippling increase in repayments following the dramatic revaluation of the SWISS franc, when the SWISS National Bank decided to abolish the peg of €1:CHF1.20 at the end of January.

BOSNIA REMAINS WITHOUT COMMON STATE INSTITUTIONS,

as its SERBIAN community in the REPUBLIKA SRPSKA simply refuses to live jointly under a common nation-state rule with BOSNIAKS and CROATIANS.
Massive air and ground NATO intervention, following the decision of President BILL CLINTON to reverse his 1992 election pledge not to get involved in the BALKANS, stopped the SERBIAN assault on SARAJEVO in 1995.

Four years later, in KOSOVO, NATO planes and soldiers intervened when SERB militias ran amok in a rampage of murder and ethnic cleansing of ALBANIAN KOSOVANS.

NO VIOLENCE, BUT NO SETTLEMENT EITHER

But if full-on violence is a thing of the past, there is no settlement to produce open borders or regional economic integration, or to oblige nations to accept their war crimes, as GERMANY did after 1945.

Five European member states – SPAIN, SLOVAKIA, ROMANIA, GREECE and CYPRUS – refuse to recognize the independent status of KOSOVO. Each may have its own reasons.

SPAIN has enclaves in MOROCCO, resents BRITISH presence in GIBRALTAR and frets over the idea of CATALAN secession. SLOVAKIA and ROMANIA are angry at HUNGARIAN insistence that HUNGARIAN minorities owe a loyalty to BUDAPEST, not to the nations of citizenship.

RUSSIA and SERBIA spend significant diplomatic resources trying to stop KOSOVO from being recognized as a UN member state, despite 120 of the world governments now accepting KOSOVO’S status as an independent nation.

MACEDONIA is plagued by bitter political division with credible reports of vote rigging to keep the current government in power. The idea of alternating governments or power sharing is unknown in the WESTERN BALKANS where winner-takes-all clientalist politics rules.

The only hope appears to be EU integration. Yet SERBIA’S Prime Minister ALEXSANDAR VUCIC gave an aggressive interview to the NEUE ZÜRCHER ZEITUNG on March 10, 2015, in which he said, “We are not ready to recognize KOSOVO as an independent state. I hope BRUSSELS is not waiting for any concessions from SERBIA.”

PRECISELY WHAT THE EU WANTS

Prime Mnister VUCIC could not be more wrong. That is precisely the concession that the EU wants. An acceptance that KOSOVO is no longer a province or region of SERBIA, as the surreal SERBIAN constitution asserts, would prove that SERBIA is serious about accepting the responsibilities of being a normal EU member state.

VUCIC rejected the view that KOSOVO was de facto an independent state. He showed a flash of anger that the SWISS journalists would even ask him.

Yet in the same interview, he offers no support to SERBIAN hardliners in BOSNIA stating, “We respect the territorial integrity of BOSNIA-HERZOGOVINA with no if’s or but’s. REPUBLIKA SRPSKA belongs to BOSNIA.”

KOSOVO

There is clearly a contradiction between VUCIC telling SERBS in BOSNIA that they owe allegiance to the post-YUGOSLAV state, but refusing to do the same to SERBS in KOSOVO.

Under EU pressure, relations between BELGRADE and PRISTINA have improved. KOSOVANS can now travel into and out of SERBIA using KOSOVO identity papers but not a KOSOVAN passport.

There is regular dialogue between PRISTINA and BELGRADE. But as long as KOSOVO is unable to join major international institutions like the UN because of SERB opposition, the country cannot seek investment and foreign trade as the post-1950 countries of WESTERN EUROPE could.

GREECE AND CYPRUS HAVE ORTHODOX CHURCH LOYALTIES TO ORTHODOX SERBIA.

Of course, the SERBIAN opposition is backed by the KREMLIN, which has still not forgiven the 1999 NATO intervention that ended the power of the client SLOBODAN MILOŠEVIĆ.

The WESTERN BALKANS continue to have too many fault lines – three religions with a dreadful history of war and treating other faiths as mortal enemies combine with no clear distinction between government and business, so that money-making is as important for politicians as good government.

The GREEK crisis is the most visible problem plaguing EUROPE. RUSSIA hovers, waiting to exploit opportunities by offering political and diplomatic support to GREEKS, SERBS, and MONTENEGRINS, as well as dangling energy and banking concessions to anyone who will switch from the EU to PUTIN.

GREECE and SERBIA could transform their negative image in the main EU capitals as well as in BRUSSELS by promoting grown-up diplomacy and recognizing KOSOVO.


There is no evidence this will happen. The 21st century will be as plagued by the WESTERN BALKANS as were the 19th and 20th centuries.

Thursday, 19 March 2015

SYRIA AND THE USA - ASSAD CAN STAY!




USA: IT’S TIME TO “REIGNITE” NEGOTIATIONS WITH ASSAD

By Ron Paul

EX-CIA CHIEF: ASSAD WIN MAY BE SYRIA'S BEST OPTION

Background Information: In JUNE 2011 Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote:
SYRIAN REGIME LIKELY TO SURVIVE UPRAISE (June 2011)


In WASHINGTON DC, consistency is considered a vice, never a virtue. It is for this reason that many in WASHINGTON, especially the neoconservatives, consider their foreign policy one of virtue. 


One would think that political leaders, both in the Republican and Democratic parties, would learn something from the devastating effects of the countries very inconsistent foreign policy, especially after the last 15 years. The chaos that was brought upon IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN should be a loud and clear message to anyone who has ears to hear.

Background Information:

SYRIA'S ASSAD, 'THE MAN WHO CAN DELIVER A MIDDLE EAST SOLUTION'

ASSAD FIRMLY IN CHARGE IN SYRIA (March 2012)

Now the message comes from the current Secretary of State JOHN KERRY that it’s time to “reignite” negotiations with ASSAD for the purpose of ending the conflict in SYRIA. One could argue, better late than never, but after more than four years of needlessly meddling in the internal affairs of SYRIA, it’s about time. Of course the US, as well as the entire MIDDLE EAST, would have been better off if they had never adopted the policy on August 2011 that “ASSAD must go.” What is never realized is that, no matter whether the USA is intervening with good intentions or not, their involvement in countries halfway around the world only makes things worse.

AS A CONSEQUENCE OF US FOREIGN POLICY, ISIS HAS BECOME A DOMINANT FORCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Of course now it becomes “practical” for the US to deal in an entirely different manner with ASSAD since they cannot handle the chaos in SYRIA that they helped bring about. As a consequence of US policy, ISIS has become a dominant force in the region to the point where the USA welcomes military assistance, at least for now, from the stated enemy, IRAN.

Background Information: ASSAD
ASSAD WINNING THE WAR
ASSAD FIRM IN THE SADDLE (January 2013)

Currently Secretary of State JOHN KERRY is expressing his desire to bring about a successful diplomatic solution to this mess. KERRY has even acknowledged, “Everybody agrees there is no military solution.” He is in agreement now that there is only a “political solution.” What is so aggravating is that there were plenty of people in this country who knew this five years ago — and for that matter who had the same opinion about the insanity of US aggressive policy in IRAQ, which started in 1990 but was greatly accelerated with the invasion in 2003.

ALLEGED USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS BY ASSAD – A FALSE FLAG OPERATION?

Foolishly, and to me somewhat surprisingly, President OBAMA declared he was drawing a red line that President ASSAD was not to cross. His warning made in August 2012 was for ASSAD not to use any chemical weapons. But all this did was set the stage for the next escalation in the unnecessary military confrontation with ASSAD. A year later the war propagandists declared that indeed ASSAD did cross the red line and used chemical weapons against the rebels. Of course there was never any evidence that this actually occurred and more likely it was the rebels that use the gas in a minimal way. It was conceivably a false flag and served to escalate the war. However public pressure was then put on OBAMA to respond with force and start outright bombing of the SYRIAN government and getting rid of President ASSAD by force.

Background Information: ISRAEL PREFERS ASSAD

ISRAEL PREFERS THE ASSAD REGIME TO CONTINUE, FOR IT IS A KNOWN ENTITY

Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote in June 2012: ISRAEL’S INTERESTS

……..This is almost certainly because the ISRAELI Prime Minister would, on balance, prefer the Assad regime to continue; it is a known quantity and any new regime could severely destabilize the effective balance-of-power between two uneasy neighbors’………… read entire analysis at:

President OBAMA in September 2013 decided that he should get Congressional approval to proceed. Though it looked originally like it would be easy to get this authority, once the AMERICAN people became aware of the seriousness of the problem, they expressed their outrage and President OBAMA was forced to withdraw his request. Approximately two-thirds of the AMERICAN public opposed this military escalation and this obviously had a bearing on the change in policy.

SHIFT OF FOREIGN POLICY

So once again US leaders who are tolerant of inconsistencies have shifted to solving the problems in SYRIA through diplomacy rather than depending on military force. This is a better way to go than depending on expanding the war. But there is even a better way to deal with this. Consistently stay out of the internal affairs of other nations and avoid all entangling alliances that prompt political leaders of AMERICA to consistently make mistakes by pursuing a foreign policy that makes no sense and is of no value to the AMERICAN people. Eventually bankruptcy and anger directed toward AMERICA will dictate a total shift away from the policies of the neoconservatives that have plagued the USA for too long.


One has to question though if decades of neoconservative US foreign policies were nothing more than opportunistic, speculative or deliberate actions for a greater cause? 

Tuesday, 17 March 2015

‘ISLAMIC STATE’ AND THE ‘BEWILDERED HERD’



HOW IMAGES AND RHETORIC CAN BE MANIPULATED TO TRIGGER CERTAIN PSYCHOLOGICAL RESPONSES FROM THE PUBLIC


IN OTHER WORDS IS USES - MODERN DAY PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS WARFARE (PSYOPS) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_warfare)

By Abe Jimenez

WALTER LIPPMANN and EDWARD BERNAYS were masters at understanding how images and rhetoric could be manipulated in order to trigger certain psychological responses from the public. They perfected this craft over the course of World War I, while serving as advisers to President WILSON. BERNAYS served on the Committee for Public Information (Creel Committee), tasked with turning AMERICAN public opinion towards military involvement in World War I. The strategy worked, and after the war BERNAYS took his talents to Madison Avenue where he became the “father of public relations.”

THE BEWILDERED HERD

BERNAYS believed that people were innately stupid and could not be counted on to make rational decisions, instead ruled by their most base emotions. People could therefore be manipulated and controlled, not by the use of force, but by use of psychological triggers and the power of suggestion.  


Different approaches in advertising were designed to trigger within people different emotions that led them to purchase certain products, each according to the desire ignited by the public relations specialist. What BERNAYS accomplished in the private sector, LIPPMANN propagated and advanced in politics and the media. LIPPMANN called the public “the bewildered herd,” whose perceptions were to be shaped by propagandists, who create “pseudo-environments” of reality within the herd’s minds.

THE RISE OF AL – DA’ESH (IS) IN ITSELF WAS A PUBLIC RELATION COUP

When attempting to understand AL-DA’ESH (the “ISLAMIC STATE”), it seems apparent that those within the organization tasked with producing propaganda have perfected the methods and techniques first originated by men like BERNAYS and LIPPMANN. The rise of AL-DA’ESH was, in itself, a public relations coup engineered by both the group itself and oblivious media outlets serving as conduits of its propaganda.

AL-DA’ESH’S propaganda is targeted towards a foreign and regional, rather than local, audience. Their regional PR efforts are tailored for recruiting, relying heavily on narratives about resisting a perverse and exploitative international order. Vis a vis the West, their primary target for terror is the minds of the public and its leaders, with an understanding that reactionary actions and policies will likely work to their advantage.

TACTICALLY EXPLOITING DEEP – SEATED FEARS AND MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT ISLAM
   
Through public statements, videos, religious sermons and public rallies, they exploit deep-seated fears and misconceptions about ISLAM, ARABS, and the MIDDLE EAST. They do not shy away from the jingoist, some would say “ORIENTALIZED” images of themselves, since it’s these stereotypes that help them propagate their grandiose persona as the holy warriors, as the nightmare inside WESTERN imaginations.

They go out of their way to evoke xenophobic tropes about “sharia law,” especially with relation to intolerance, misogyny, extremism. They try hard to insinuate that virtually any MUSLIM could be sympathetic to their cause, plotting lone-wolf attacks against the WEST—that all MUSLIMS (should) secretly want to conquer the world, overthrowing liberal systems and institutions.



SELECTIVE AND WELL REGIMENTED INFORMATION ACCESS

AL-DA’ESH utilizes the platforms available to them on social media, projecting their image and message to potential recruits and adversaries. The emphasis placed on the production value of their videos is one example; the well-regimented access they give to some, but not all, media outlets, is another. 

Their video production is well-polished and accompanied by soundtracks, good graphics and well-timed graphics. These manufactured images create “pseudo-environments” within the minds of the target audiences–instilling a foreboding feeling, a sense of inevitable conflict. Their prophecies of religious war can, therefore, become self-fulfilling.

IS PROFOUND ADVANTAGE – KNOWING THE ENEMY AND ITS FEARS

AL-DA’ESH knows how to play a good heel. It knows how to garner a negative reaction or draw heat from the crowd, while appearing completely confident and self-assured. These tactics, no doubt, well-learned during the IRAQ War (2003-2010). It knows what its enemies fear and what drives AMERICAN and Western military power. 



They are aware of the current debates about putting “boots on the ground” in IRAQ or SYRIA, the widespread aversion to expensive or protracted conflicts. Similar to the way that OSAMA BIN LADEN wanted to draw the U.S. into AFGHANISTAN through the attacks of 9/11, AL-DA’ESH seeks the same in IRAQ and SYRIA. This may have been the purpose of the journalist beheadings back in August.

THE WEST AND THE US STEPPED RIGHT INTO THE QUICKSAND OF IS PROPAGANDA – AND SUBSEQUENTLY WAS DRAWN BACK INTO IRAQ

It is mind-baffling to see how WESTERN governments and media, especially in the U.S., have almost on command played into this whirlpool of propaganda. 

AL-DA’ESH created itself as an object of fear and angst–whether justified or not, whether truly a threat or not, they have pulled the U.S. back into IRAQ. They seem to know exactly what button to push in order to garner the desired reaction from AMERICA and its leaders. The air is now rife with talk of sending more ground troops to IRAQ, in addition to those already sent.


AMERICAN civilian and military strategists should refrain from allowing the actions and self-created persona of the enemy from influencing how they perceive and confront the enemy.

By calling AL-DA’ESH “Apocalyptic” in nature, officials play into the hands of their adversaries and allow them to dictate the nature of the conflict. Likewise when the public allows AL-DA’ESH to perpetuate Orientalist and irrational fears within their minds, they help enhance the enemy’s status as an archetypal adversary—elevating them into the sort of ideological construct which is much more difficult to definitively “defeat,” especially by military means.

Source: This article was published by SISMEC, which may be found here.


Sunday, 15 March 2015

THE "WHO FIGHTS WHO" AMONG THE ISLAMIC FRACTIONS ?

A PLAN TO FAIL  


- HOW DOES ONE TRAIN  "MODERATE"  REBELS? 



QATAR RUNS COVERT DESERT TRAINING CAMP FOR ‘MODERATE’ SYRIAN REBELS



Original published on Thursday, 27 November 2014

Related Articles on QATAR: 

QATAR INVESTED BILLIONS TO EXPAND ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST


 At a desert base, GULF state QATAR is covertly training moderate SYRIAN rebels with U.S. help to fight both President BASHAR ASSAD and ISIS and may include more overtly Islamist insurgent groups, sources close to the matter say.
The camp, south of the capital between SAUDI ARABIA’S border and AL UDEID, the largest U.S. air base in the MIDDLE EAST, is being used to train the Free SYRIAN Army (FSA) and other moderate rebels, the sources said.

TRUE OR MAINSTREAM MEDIA  PROPAGANDA?

Reuters could not independently identify the participants in the program or witness activity inside the base, which lies in a military zone guarded by QATARI special forces and marked on signposts as a restricted area.
But SYRIAN rebel sources said training in QATAR has included rebels affiliated to the “Free SYRIAN Army” from northern SYRIA.
The sources said the effort had been running for nearly a year, although it was too small to have a significant impact on the battlefield, and some rebels complained of not being taught advanced techniques.

DOHA HAS MADE NO SECRET OF ITS HATRED OF ASSAD

The training is in line with QATAR’S self-image as a champion of ARAB Spring uprisings and DOHA has made no secret of its hatred of ASSAD.
Small groups of 12 to 20 fighters are identified in SYRIA and screened by the Central Intelligence Agency, the sources said. Once cleared of links with “terrorist” factions, they travel to TURKEY and are then flown to DOHA and driven to the base.

Qatar supports the Syrian conflict to build a pipeline through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria.

“The U.S. wanted to help the rebels oust ASSAD but didn’t want to be open about their support, so to have rebels trained in QATAR is a good idea, the problem is the scale is too small,” said a WESTERN source in DOHA.
The CIA declined to comment, as did QATAR’S foreign ministry and an FSA spokesman in TURKEY. It is not clear whether the QATARI program is coordinated with a strategy of WESTERN and GULF countries to turn disparate non-Islamist rebel groups into a force to combat the militants. Such efforts have been hampered by WESTERN hesitancy about providing significant military aid, because it could end up with extremists. GULF states dislike the WEST’S emphasis on fighting ISIS. ASSAD is the bigger problem, they say.

“Moderate rebels from the FSA and other groups have been flown in to get trained in things like ambush techniques,” said a source close to the QATARI government who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the topic.

Related Articles on QATAR: 
HOW MUCH AND TO WHOM IS QATAR PAYING? THE ANSWER: WAHHABI ASSOCIATIONS AND MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/04/qatars-great-power-games.html

“The training would last a few months, maybe two or three, and then a new group would be flown in, but no lethal weapons were supplied to them,” one of the sources said.

SCREENING PROCESS

As the war against ASSAD has dragged on, frustrated rebels asked their trainers for more advanced techniques, such as building improvised explosive devices (IEDs), requests which were always denied.
“They complain a lot and say that going back they need more weapons or more training in IEDs but that’s not something that’s given to them,” said a Qatar-based defence source.
The QATAR project was conceived before the declaration of the hardline ISIS, when militants belonging to its predecessor organisation were not regarded as an international security threat.

THE "WHO FIGHTS WHO" AMONG THE ISLAMIC FRACTIONS ?


The group's rise in SYRIA and IRAQ has hampered the rebellion: Moderate groups cannot fight ASSAD when the better-armed ISIS seeks their destruction as it strives to build its "caliphate"
In recent weeks, the QATARIS, disappointed by lack of progress in the fight against ASSAD, have started to consider training members of the ISLAMIC FRONT, a coalition of Islamist rebels less militant than ISIS or the Al Qaeda-linked NUSRA FRONT, but stronger than the FSA. None have been trained as yet, but QATAR has sought to identify candidates, the sources say.
Some analysts say screening ISLAMIC FRONT fighters would be harder than FSA rebels, since some ISLAMISTS have switched between various groups.

ISLAMIST NETWORK

Training fighters from ISLAMIC groups could displease fellow GULF state the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, which dislikes QATAR'S support for the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD'S international Islamist network. But SAUDI ARABIA, which shares the UAE's mistrust of the BROTHERHOOD, is more indulgent of moderate Islamist forces when it comes to fighting ASSAD, diplomats say.

Related Articles on QATAR: 
STRIVING FOR BECOMING THE REGIONAL POWER PLAYER 
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/saudi-arabia-and-qatar.html

Asked about the QATARI training, a SAUDI defence source said: "We are not aware of this training camp, but there's one thing we agree on: ASSAD needs to go and we would not oppose any action taken towards that goal."

To QATAR, ousting ASSAD remains a priority and youthful EMIR SHEIKH TAMIM has said that military efforts to tackle ISIS will not work while the SYRIAN president remains in power.
A source who works with rebel groups said QATAR had delivered weapons, mostly mortar bombs, to the ISLAMIC FRONT and some FSA brigades about two months ago and had paid some salaries for ISLAMIC FRONT groups.

Source: Daily Star