Background Information:
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Sunday, 23 September 2012
Thursday, 20 September 2012
IRAN, SYRIA and ISRAEL
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| "Golan heights" seen from Israeli territory , 40km further east lies Damascus |
IRAN POURS MORE TROOPS INTO SYRIA, READY TO TARGET
ISRAEL FROM SYRIA AND LEBANON
Via DEBKAfile
IRAN continues to fly military
personnel and quantities of weapons into SYRIA by civilian aircraft which cut
through IRAQI airspace, AMERICAN intelligence sources disclosed early Thursday,
Sept. 20. UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon also said that, "Unfortunately,
both [SYRIAN] sides, government and opposition forces, seem to be determined to
see the end by military means."
Clearly, IRAN is augmenting its
military involvement in the constantly escalating SYRIAN civil war, broadening
it into a multinational conflict which threatens to drag LEBANON in, by means
of the IRANIAN-SYRIAN ally, Hizballah.
The UN Secretary General's statement
implying that the two SYRIAN sides are determined to fight to the bitter end is
echoed in IRAN’S resolve to fight to the bitter end for Assad, on SYRIAN soil.
Tehran is not hiding its actions. IRANIAN
Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Commander Gen. Ali Jafari said openly that Al Qods
Brigades units were present and operational in both Syria and LEBANON.
No comment on this revelation has
come from the US, ISRAEL or ISRAEL’S military (IDF) chiefs - notwithstanding
its menacing import, namely, that Tehran is no longer hanging about and waiting
for its nuclear program to be attacked in order to punish ISRAEL, but is
getting ready for a pre-emptive operation.
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| United Nations Disengagement Observer Forces buffer zone |
Still, Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have chosen silence in the face of
what any other nation would regard as a casus belli: the open deployment of
enemy forces on its northern and eastern borders.
This must have been the catalyst for the IDF’s surprise two-division strength drill Wednesday on ISRAEL’S Golan border with SYRIA. But the IDF spokesman sounded almost apologetic when he explained that the exercise had nothing to do with the events in SYRIA or with Hizballah, and that it was no more than a routine drill for testing preparedness.
This must have been the catalyst for the IDF’s surprise two-division strength drill Wednesday on ISRAEL’S Golan border with SYRIA. But the IDF spokesman sounded almost apologetic when he explained that the exercise had nothing to do with the events in SYRIA or with Hizballah, and that it was no more than a routine drill for testing preparedness.
debkafile's military sources say
that, in the current climate, no military operation by any army on the SYRIAN
border – especially one of this magnitude – may be regarded as “routine.” Only
a week ago, the Golani Brigade concluded a large military exercise in northern ISRAEL
including the Golan.
That sort of frequency must have operational connotations:
The IDF is evidently keeping the army on the move and in a constant state of
readiness to fight a real war without delay on terrain made familiar by
repeated war games.
IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Benny Gantz has a penchant for expressing himself through symbols, his method of overcoming the restrictions placed on his tongue by military and other constraints.
On New Year’s Eve last week, the
general handed military correspondents a small gift: The Hebrew edition of the AMERICAN
writer Richard David Bach's "There's No Such Place as Far Away."
For the Golan drill Wednesday, he
decided to attach Maj. Gen. (res.) Nati Sharoni, chief artillery officer in the
1973 Yom Kippur War, to his party of advisers and observers.
Background information: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War
The book was a clear message to Tehran and doubting Thomases at home that the
IDF is fully capable of an operation against IRAN’S nuclear program and of
successfully accomplishing any mission far from its shores.
Gen. Sharoni’s presence at the Golan
exercise, and the exercise itself, was a warning to Iran, Hizballah and SYRIA
that they will be disappointed if they hope to catch ISRAEL unready, as it was
by the surprise attack which almost overcame the IDF 39 years ago before the
tide of war was turned back against EGYPT.
Background Information:
Wednesday, 19 September 2012
IDF launches surprise live-fire drill on Golan Heights
The Israeli Defense Force has begun surprise live-fire war games on the Golan Heights, bordering unstable Lebanon and Syria.
Officially, the Israeli military is practicing combat readiness to repel possible sudden attack from Lebanon-based Hezbollah.
The Chief of IDF General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz ordered troops from the Northern and Central commands, reinforced by reservists, to simulate an emergency. The IDF insists the drill is a routine scheduled event, but for unknown reasons withheld from making public how many troops and what military vehicles are being involved in the war games.
But Israel Radio’s military affairs correspondent who is in regular contact with senior officers, said on air that the timing of the exercise was “not mere coincidence.”
Troops were flown by helicopter from central Israel to the Golan Heights for the exercise.
The live fire drill will be conducted later in the evening and will be overseen by the IDF’s Chief Artillery Officer, Brig. Gen. Roei Riftin.
Similar war games were held a year ago and last week the IDF held drills simulating a mass rocket assault on Israeli territory by Hezbollah.
The IDF has expressed concerns several times that the situation in neighboring Syria, where a civil war is in full swing, might get out of hand. Syria has a considerable chemical weapons stockpile and Israel fears these weapons could fall into the wrong hands if President Bashar al-Assad is ousted. Some defecting Syrian officers claim Assad has plans to hand some of the chemical weapons over to Hezbollah.
Starting from last week, the IDF began reinforcing the fence on the Israel-Syria border in the Golan Heights area. Military engineers implanted new motion sensors along the border, electrified parts of the fence to activate new alarm systems and planted mines in certain areas along the border.
LIBYA - Doomed from Day One
People often ask why the West
doesn’t attempt a LIBYA-style intervention in SYRIA. After all, things are
going so well in LIBYA. Oil production is up. But oil production is merely a
mirage, as is security in LIBYA, which was doomed from the day one PG
(post-Gaddafi) because of the way it was “liberated”.
Recently , US envoy to LIBYA Christopher Stevens was killed along with three
other AMERICAN diplomats in a rocket attack on the US consulate in Benghazi.
What about the oil, that global elixir? Well, the violence will not bode well for LIBYA’S production ambitions, coming at a time when the country looked prepared for a boost in output and was banking on this for economic growth.
Security was already dubious at best, and now international oil companies will be more reluctant than ever. Those that are already there—GERMANY’S Wintershall AG, ITALY’S Eni and FRANCE’S Total—will be seeking to beef up security and have already started sending some of their workers home.
What about the oil, that global elixir? Well, the violence will not bode well for LIBYA’S production ambitions, coming at a time when the country looked prepared for a boost in output and was banking on this for economic growth.
Security was already dubious at best, and now international oil companies will be more reluctant than ever. Those that are already there—GERMANY’S Wintershall AG, ITALY’S Eni and FRANCE’S Total—will be seeking to beef up security and have already started sending some of their workers home.
Comment by Geopolitical
Monitoring and Analysis: As mentioned previously on this blog, the intervention
in LIBYA, orchestrated by USA, FRANCE, UK and to some extend GERMANY, were made
out of ignorance and greed over oil wealth, totally ignoring CHINA and RUSSIA in
their equation, both of whom had also invested heavily in LIBYA’S oil riches. Subsequently
RUSSIA and CHINA decided it was payback time and thus adopted their opposition stance
on intervention in SYRIA, by vetoing every Security Council Resolution.
If the picture was not clear from the onset of the post-Gaddafi atmosphere, it certainly came into focus earlier this summer when protests over parliamentary elections forced the temporary closure of the el-Sider oil terminal, the country’s biggest.
Anyone who thinks that LIBYA will be a secure oil frontier after the formation of a new government next summer is mistaken. The road to destruction runs from AFGHANISTAN to Benghazi (incidentally, the oil-producing region), branching off to southern IRAQ and Pakistan’s tribal regions.
So, you ask, what about the controversial anti-Islamic movie apparently put together by people with too much time on their hands?
According to Jellyfish Operations--a private intelligence and analysis boutique that has spent much time dissecting the intervention in LIBYA and the conflict in SYRIA—the anti-Islamic movie is a red herring in all of this.
Speaking to Oilprice.com, Jellyfish President Michael Bagley said that while the movie is being upheld as the root cause of the intensifying protests and the death of the US envoy to LIBYA, it has only served to give added momentum to another more important development.
“The key to all of this is al-Qaeda’s second in command, Abu Yahya al-Libi, who was killed by a US drone attack in Waziristan on 4 June,” Bagley said. “The real catalyst for the attack in LIBYA and the unrest that has spread to YEMEN, was a lengthy video released by al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, marking the anniversary of 9/11 and admitting to the death of al-Libi, who is LIBYAN.”
“This was a very powerful call to avenge al-Libi’s death,” Bagley said, “and it came only 24 hours before the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi.”
To put this into perspective, let’s reminisce a bit about al-Libi, whose past is a roller coaster, enemy-foe ride with the US.
Al-Libi was captured in the “war on terrorism” in AFGHANISTAN in 2002 and held for three years in Kabul’s high-security Bagram prison. Against all odds, he escaped in 2005.
In 2011 he resurfaced again, but this time as a friend to Washington who had decided that it was no longer friends with Gaddafi, despite all the efforts leading up to this to rebuild relations after that nasty Lockerbie business and all the sanctions. So here is al-Libi again, but this time around his terrorist inclinations are a bonus rather than a liability: He fights alongside intervention forces to oust Gaddafi.
With Gaddafi gone, al-Libi once again became a liability so he was taken out by a drone in Pakistan.
This brings us back to the present, with al-Zawahiri on the rampage and LIBYAN’S wise to their liberators.
“This is a cut and dry example of the backfire of the US intervention strategy,” Bagley said. “Let’s hope it isn’t attempted in SYRIA.”
The post-Gaddafi Libya is not real. It’s a dangerous fabrication of materials stuck together by the glue of dubious alliances with jihadists who are cut loose with their weapons once the immediate goal (Gaddafi’s demise) was achieved. Forget about the oil for now.
By Jen Alic Via Oilprice
If the picture was not clear from the onset of the post-Gaddafi atmosphere, it certainly came into focus earlier this summer when protests over parliamentary elections forced the temporary closure of the el-Sider oil terminal, the country’s biggest.
Anyone who thinks that LIBYA will be a secure oil frontier after the formation of a new government next summer is mistaken. The road to destruction runs from AFGHANISTAN to Benghazi (incidentally, the oil-producing region), branching off to southern IRAQ and Pakistan’s tribal regions.
So, you ask, what about the controversial anti-Islamic movie apparently put together by people with too much time on their hands?
According to Jellyfish Operations--a private intelligence and analysis boutique that has spent much time dissecting the intervention in LIBYA and the conflict in SYRIA—the anti-Islamic movie is a red herring in all of this.
Speaking to Oilprice.com, Jellyfish President Michael Bagley said that while the movie is being upheld as the root cause of the intensifying protests and the death of the US envoy to LIBYA, it has only served to give added momentum to another more important development.
“The key to all of this is al-Qaeda’s second in command, Abu Yahya al-Libi, who was killed by a US drone attack in Waziristan on 4 June,” Bagley said. “The real catalyst for the attack in LIBYA and the unrest that has spread to YEMEN, was a lengthy video released by al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, marking the anniversary of 9/11 and admitting to the death of al-Libi, who is LIBYAN.”
“This was a very powerful call to avenge al-Libi’s death,” Bagley said, “and it came only 24 hours before the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi.”
To put this into perspective, let’s reminisce a bit about al-Libi, whose past is a roller coaster, enemy-foe ride with the US.
Al-Libi was captured in the “war on terrorism” in AFGHANISTAN in 2002 and held for three years in Kabul’s high-security Bagram prison. Against all odds, he escaped in 2005.
In 2011 he resurfaced again, but this time as a friend to Washington who had decided that it was no longer friends with Gaddafi, despite all the efforts leading up to this to rebuild relations after that nasty Lockerbie business and all the sanctions. So here is al-Libi again, but this time around his terrorist inclinations are a bonus rather than a liability: He fights alongside intervention forces to oust Gaddafi.
With Gaddafi gone, al-Libi once again became a liability so he was taken out by a drone in Pakistan.
This brings us back to the present, with al-Zawahiri on the rampage and LIBYAN’S wise to their liberators.
“This is a cut and dry example of the backfire of the US intervention strategy,” Bagley said. “Let’s hope it isn’t attempted in SYRIA.”
The post-Gaddafi Libya is not real. It’s a dangerous fabrication of materials stuck together by the glue of dubious alliances with jihadists who are cut loose with their weapons once the immediate goal (Gaddafi’s demise) was achieved. Forget about the oil for now.
By Jen Alic Via Oilprice
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