TURKEYS CHANGING FOREIGN POLICY STANCE

TURKEY IS ATTEMPTING TO MIRROR ITS RISING ECONOMIC INFLUENCE IN THE REALM OF FOREIGN POLICY

Unlike his predecessors, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken on a much more robust and aggressive foreign policy with the country's neighbors. From supporting the Arab Spring movement to spearheading negotiations over IRAN'S nuclear program and supporting the SYRIAN opposition in its uprising against the Assad regime, Ankara is attempting to mirror its rising economic influence RELATED BACKGROUND INFORMATION: TURKEY GROWS FASTER THAN EUROZONE'S MAJOR ECONOMIES at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/04/turkey.html ) in the realm of foreign policy. But what are the implications of such a dramatic shift away from the "Good Neighbor" policy that has served TURKEY so well for decades?

THE IMPLICATIONS OF TURKEY’S TOUGH NEW FOREIGN POLICY

Since Erdogan has taken office, TURKISH foreign policy has become decidedly less passive and noninterventionist. The Prime Minister lashed out at ISRAELI President Shimon Peres in 2009 over what he believed was excessive force used by the ISRAELIS against the Palestinians; tensions continued to rise during the flotilla crisis the next year. More recently, Erdogan referred to Zionism as a "crime against humanity" during a speech to the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations in Vienna.

RELATED BACKGROUND INFORMATION: TURKEYS ERRATIC FOREIGN POLICIES at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html
and

TURKEY WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO THE RESOLUTION OF THE SYRIAN CRISIS IF IT COULD BRING ITSELF TO RISE ABOVE THE SECTARIAN CONSIDERATIONS THAT HAVE DICTATED ITS REGIME CHANGE POLICY IN SYRIA at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-syrian-policies.html

With regards to SYRIA, what were once thawing relations between the two countries early in Erdogan's term have frosted over considerably since the SYRIAN uprising, with rumors circulating that the TURKS are supplying arms to the rebels. What is known for certain is that the TURKISH government has set up camps for refugees and has offered humanitarian support as well.

RELATED BACKGROUND INFORMATION: DRAWING SYMPATHY FROM ARAB COUNTRIES at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/turkeys-middle-east-chess-game.html

Generally speaking TURKEY has in recent years recalibrated its Middle East policy to reflect that of the United States. However, where they have differed recently is over IRAN; TURKEY has taken an active role in talks over IRAN'S nuclear program and has stressed the need for diplomacy, as opposed to the more bellicose calls emanating from Washington. Part of this use of soft power stems from the fact that TURKEY has important trade ties with IRAN and clearly would not want to jeopardize that through siding with the UNITED STATES and the EUROPEAN UNION.

THE KURDISH EQUATION 

The new foreign policy strategy stems from Erdogan's desire for TURKEY to become a larger influence in the region. For years TURKEY has wanted to join the EUROPEAN UNION despite strong opposition both at home and in certain corners of EUROPE. However, meddling in the affairs of its neighboring countries could have a negative impact, a consequence currently developing with regards to TURKEY'S actions in SYRIA.

Considering the secular nature of the Assad regime, religious and ethnic minorities such as the KURDS tended to side with the government since the state offered the best chance of protection from persecution by the Sunni majority. Anything that undermines the safety of KURDS does not sit well with the PKK, and in the past months there have been reports of PKK attacks in TURKEY'S southeast.

RELATED BACKGROUND INFORMATION:

TURKEY’S DREAMS, OF BEING ENERGY HUB STRENGTHENED BY PKK NEGOTIATIONS? at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/turkey-and-kurds.html and

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/turkeys-foreign-policy-poker-game.html
and

THE KURDISH EQUATION at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/libya-syria.html

This poses a significant problem as PKK attacks had lessened in the past few years. Is destabilizing a neighboring country really in the interest of TURKEY, especially if it reignites conflict with the KURDISH population? Or does the idea of TURKEY establishing itself as a regional power override domestic security concerns? Erdogan's popularity stemmed from the booming TURKISH economy, which gave him the maneuverability to "reset" TURKISH foreign policy. Polls suggest that Erdogan's support of the SYRIAN uprising has eroded support for him and his Freedom and Justice Party (AKP), a significant worry with the next elections only a year away.

GOING BACK TO TURKEY'S NEUTRAL STANCE MAY BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FROM A POLITICAL STANDPOINT

Tensions have risen even further between SYRIA and TURKEY in light of SYRIAN rockets landing in TURKISH territory and calls from Ankara asking Washington for Patriot missiles along its border with SYRIA. On February 1st, the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party–Front detonated a bomb outside the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, citing the TURKISH government's support for the SYRIAN rebels as one of the reasons for the attack.

If Erdogan wants the Presidency, as some suggest he does, going back to TURKEY'S neutral stance may be the best way to go from a political standpoint. It would also relieve tensions along the TURKEY-SYRIA border, placate the PKK, and put the public's collective mind at ease. Additionally, any sort of internal or external insecurity will do the TURKISH economy no favors, especially if it means strained trade relations with IRAN, a key ally of SYRIA (and their lone friend in the region).

ABANDONING THE "GOOD NEIGHBOR" POLICY that has seen TURKEY well throughout its existence has had both positive and negative effects. It has caused Erdogan's stock to rise in the West, and his diplomatic efforts regarding IRAN should be lauded. However, its meddling in the SYRIAN uprising has revived tensions between Ankara and its Kurdish population when relations between the two looked to be normalizing. The TURKISH Foreign Ministers visit to IRAQI KURDISTAN and its recognition of its regional government was seen as a major step forward in TURKISH-KURD relations.

Turkey miscalculated the implications supporting the Free Syrian Army would have in regards to a burgeoning refugee problem (current estimates put the number of refugees at 150,000 and rising) and rekindled PKK attacks in its southeast. Erdogan seems to be hoping that the rebels will win and install a TURKISH-style democracy in SYRIA, one that would be Sunni-dominated. All well and good for TURKEY to have a “like-minded government” on its border, but if relations were improving under Assad, why take a chance and support the opposition?

Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: It seems most unlikely that Erdogan really believed that if the Free SYRIAN Army rebels win, they would install a TURKISH style democracy. The more likely reason for his pivot against Assad was to synchronize with the Sunni Arab alliance, (QATAR, SAUDI ARABIA and the rest of the GULF STATES) focused on toppling Assad, in order to emerge as the key- regional player by enforce a powerful Middle Eastern “Sunni crescent” that opposes the “Shiite crescent” (IRAN, SYRIA, IRAQ etc.).

RELATED BACKGROUND INFORMATION:

SECTARIANISM - “SUNNI CRESCENT” at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html
and

THE MIDDLE EAST IS PERVADED AND INCREASINGLY INFECTED BY THE SECTARIAN RIVALRY BETWEEN THE SHIITE PERSIANS AND THE WAHHABI SAUDIS, WHO ARE NOW FIGHTING PROXY WARS ALL OVER THE REGION at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html

The AKP now has a dilemma on its hands. Facing elections in 2014, the question remains whether Davutolu's and Erdogan's foreign policy will see the AKP ousted from power, in spite of the economic gains the country has made under them. Public opinion shows that the majority of TURKS are uneasy with the more interventionist policies. Nevertheless, Erdogan should keep pushing for a diplomatic solution in IRAN. A war between IRAN, ISRAEL, and possibly the UNITED STATES would be disastrous for the region as a whole, in addition to the economic damage it would cause TURKEY. On the other hand, in order to hedge his and his party's bets, it would be wise for Erdogan to scale back and let the situation in SYRIA play itself out. The last thing Ankara needs is for the conflict to spill over into its territory.

By Frank Lopapa via Oilprice

BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA - ALLEGATIONS OF BRIBERY.

BRAZIL INVESTIGATING SALE OF 20 EMBRAER E-190 TO AEROLÍNEAS ARGENTINAS, FEARING SURCHARGES

Background Information: See

CRIME AND CORRUPTION ARE TWO OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST MULTINATIONAL INDUSTRIES at:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/crime-corruption-and-political-system.html

and

ARGENTINA, BARELY 30 YEARS OF DEMOCRACY, A YOUNG NATION TRYING TO FIND IT’S BEARING at:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/11/argentine-evolution.html

ARGENTINA HAS NO LIABLE POLITICAL OPPOSITION, OTHER THAN SELF SEEKING INDIVIDUALS FROM WITHIN THE PERONIST MOVEMENT at:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/argentina-country-without-visible.html

IF A COUNTRY NEGLECTS TO IMPROVE ITS INFRASTRUCTURE at:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/if-country-neglects-to-improve-its.html

Via Mercopress

BRAZIL’ aircraft manufacturer Embrear is again resurfacing suspicions regarding the sale of commercial planes to Aerolineas Argentinas involving several million dollars in surcharges. The company informed the US Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, that it is investigating companies from five different countries to which it sold aircraft allegedly in transactions suspicious of irregularities.

2009 LIST PRICE FOR E-190 AMOUNTED TO 27.85 MILLION; ARGENTINA ALLEGEDLY PURCHASED THE BRAZILIAN AIRPLANE FOR 34.9 MILLION US DOLLARS PER UNIT

In 2009 ARGENTINA signed an agreement for the purchase of 20 Embraer E-190 aircraft for government controlled Austral, an operation apparently involving 698 million dollars with a unit price of 34.9 million dollars. The E-190 is considered a mid range aircraft highly competitive and with a capacity of 100 to 115 pax.

However this sum is considered excessive by analysts if compared with what the going market price was at the time. The operation 80% financed by the BRAZILIAN Economic and Social development bank, BNDES, was signed by Federal Planning minister Julio De Vido; then Transport Secretary Ricardo Jaime and then Aerolineas Argentinas president and currently Justice minister Julio Alak.

ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT HAD PAID 5 TO 6 MILLION DOLLARS IN EXCESS FOR EACH AIRCRAFT

Magistrate Sergio Torres opened an investigation on suspicion that the ARGENTINE government had paid 5 to 6 million dollars in excess for each aircraft, which would add up to 100/120 million dollars. Aerolineas Argentinas and the government rejected the claims arguing that in effect the original price was 30.6 million for each unit and the additional 4.3 million was the result of spare parts and pilot training.

The situation set off alarm bells in the aircraft industry and a warning from UNITED STATES SEC office to which the BRAZILIAN government responded by opening an internal investigation.

And last month Embraer sent an update report to SEC on investigations so far: “We received a summons from SEC in September 2010 requesting about certain operations relative to overseas sale of aircraft. In reply and to consultations over possible breach of US legislation on foreign corrupt practices, we contracted a foreign solicitor for an internal investigation into transactions with three specific countries”.

COMMON AVIATION INDUSTRY PRACTICE IS TO GIVE CONSIDERABLE REBATES WHEN LARGE AIRCRAFT DEALS ARE SIGNED

Likewise Embrear says it is willing to expand the area of investigation and has done so including two additional countries and in close cooperation with the US Secretary of Justice and SEC. “In case authorities decide on measures against us or the sides involved reach an agreement to solve the issue, we could be obliged to pay strong fines or incur in other sanctions”.

The case not only refers to market prices of the time but to the fact that when a big number of aircraft are involved, they usually are benefited with additional rebates.

According to the specialized magazine Aircraft Commerce, in November 2008, an E-190 was sold to Aeroméxico for 29 million dollars and in July 2009, TACA airlines paid 30.5 million dollars for an E-195. Air Europa in 2009 paid 31 million dollars, also confirmed by the Airline Fleet Management magazine. Finally Ascend Aviation Insight said that in 2009, the E-190 had a going price of 27.85 million.

ARGENTINA: BUENOS AIRES FLOODING

NOR DELTA GATED COMMUNITY

LUXURY HOMES BLOCK UP RIVER DELTA NEAR BA - CAUSE FOR FLOODS?

flooded Buenos Aires after torrential rainfalls

AN INCREASE IN REAL ESTATE PROJECTS MAY PARTLY EXPLAIN FLOODS IN THE CITY

by Marcela Valente via IPS

Gated residential communities on the Paraná Delta have sprawled out of control in recent years, and are plugging up the local ecosystem and preventing the natural runoff of water that cushions the impact of floods in a vast area near the ARGENTINE capital.

The problem was particularly highlighted after the tragic flooding in early April in the city of Buenos Aires, and especially in La Plata, the capital of the province of Buenos Aires, where torrential rains caused the death of almost 60 people.

LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND FAR SIGHT AS WELL AS CONTINGENCY PLANS ARE PART OF THE CAUSE FOR INCREASED FLOODING IN BUENOS AIRES 

The real estate construction boom, the lack of infrastructure such as storm drains to cope with increasingly frequent and heavy rains, and the lack of contingency plans in response to disasters are now at the centre of debate in Argentina.

The Paraná river delta is an immense wetland covering 17,500 square kilometres in the lower course of the nearly 5,000-kilometre-long Paraná river, which divides into a labyrinth of smaller branches before flowing into the River Plate estuary.

Traditional houses on the islands of the delta are built on stilts, have wooden jetties and are surrounded by reed beds. They coexist harmoniously with an ecosystem that is prepared periodically to receive large amounts of floodwater.

229 HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS OF DIFFERENT SIZES HAVE BEEN BUILT ON THE FLOODPLAINS OF THE DELTA IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS ONLY...........

It is an area of high biodiversity which also provides many environmental services. The most outstanding are provision of water and the capacity to regulate the river’s floods, which are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change caused by global warming.

In recent years, however, 229 housing developments of different sizes have been built on the floodplains of the delta, most of them with luxury homes, golf courses, tennis courts, shopping centres, schools and horse-riding centres.

TOWN PLANNERS SAID THAT ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS WERE BUILT ON FLOODPLAINS SUBJECT TO OVERFLOW FROM RIVERS AND STREAMS, and 10 percent on silt islands that were artificially levelled or filled in to support the residential complexes.

Daniel Blanco, the head of Fundación Humedales (Wetlands Foundation), said that the building expansion was “very aggressive.” Now the area is at risk of losing its natural capacity to absorb water, just as storms are becoming more intense.

Experts with the NGO, which works for the conservation and sustainable use of wetlands, say that under the false pretext that the land is unproductive, real estate projects went ahead with levelling, draining and diverting water courses, affecting the natural functions of the wetland.

“They are trying to convert the place into a dryland system,” complain the authors of “Bienes y servicios ecosistémicos de los humedales del Delta del Paraná” (Ecosystem Goods and Services in the Paraná Delta Wetlands), a study that warns of the risk of flooding in adjacent areas.

The study, by Patricia Kandus, Natalia Morandeira and Facundo Schivo of Fundación Humedales, indicates that the delta ecosystem does not prevent flooding, but cushions the rise of the river level, retains part of the volume, filters the water and releases it slowly thanks to its plant cover which acts like a sponge.

PROJECTS SUCH AS COLONY PARK (GATED COMMUNITY) HAVE BEEN BROUGHT TO A HALT 

Colony Park project

Warnings from environmentalists and local residents, added to the severe impact of heavy rains in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area, managed to block some investment projects, and have led to progress in regulating new building on the islands.

One of the projects brought to a halt is Colony Park, which promised “a private island of peace and tranquillity” on 300 hectares of the Delta del Tigre, the lowest-lying section of the wetlands, in the northeast of the province of Buenos Aires. According to its promotional advertising, the building of 1,000 “luxury” dwellings was planned.

Due to the controversy generated by the project, as well as a lawsuit brought by residents, in 2012 the municipality of Tigre with the help and expertise of environmental organizations drew up stricter planning regulations for building on the islands in that district.

Acknowledging the fragility of the delta ecosystem, the new regulations require buildings to be constructed on stilts, forbid the alteration of the natural elevation of the islands — which usually grow by accumulating sediment — and ban artificial filling-in of the centre of the islands.

The islands of the delta are normally bowl-shaped, with a hollow in the centre that contributes to retaining excess floodwater. But these hollows were being filled in to raise the elevation and avoid flooding the building site.

In Campana, another municipality of the province of Buenos Aires, a local association, Vecinos del Humedal, got a temporary stay against a residential development planned for 40,000 people on the Luján river, one of the delta tributaries.

PARANÁ RIVER ROSE TO NEARLY FIVE METERS, CREATING SEVERE FLOODING

Alejandro Fernández, a member of the association, said that local people got together to resist the project in their area, where several gated communities are already causing flooding in the surrounding areas.

In late October a heavy storm caused the level of the Paraná river to rise by nearly five metres, creating severe flooding not only along the riverside but also in the centre of the city of Luján, where the floodwater reached the basilica, an international tourist attraction.

“All along the Luján river, the building of private complexes has been allowed on the floodplains that alter the natural ebb and flow of the river. If they cap a virtually flat area with cement, they create a serious problem,” Fernández said.

“Then when the floods come, political leaders clutch their heads, but they were the ones who signed off on the permits for those real estate projects without proper urban planning,” he said.