IS A NEW PATTERN EMERGING WHICH WILL CHANGE THE
POLITICAL BALANCES OF THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN?
By Betül Büke Karaçin
The petroleum prospect which got under way in 2011 to the south of the
island of CYPRUS was received by the GREEK CYPRIOTS as a godsend but led to the
appearance in TURKEY of headlines like “EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN’S water
temperature rises.” If one looks a little further back into the past of the
story, it may be observed that the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN adventure of the GREEKS
goes back to the beginning of the 2000’s.
See
also:
The GREEK CYPRIOT Administration of Southern CYPRUS had long been looking
for appropriate international conditions to begin prospecting for petrol and
natural gas and speeded these operations up after becoming a member of the EU
in 2004. It prepared the way legally by signing exclusive economic zone
agreements with EGYPT, LEBANON, and ISRAEL and then waited for a propitious set
of circumstances to begin drilling. Just around this time in 2010, ISRAEL
announced that it had discovered about 685 billion m3 of natural gas in its
Tamar and Leviathan fields. This spurred the Greek Cypriot administration into
action. Taking advantage of growing international interest in the area, they
divided the south of the island into prospecting zones and opened international
tenders for drilling in them. It was a time of rising energy prices and
anxieties caused by the Arab Spring and so international interest was aroused
in the potential resources of the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN. But it also raised
questions about whether it would also give rise to a new equation which would
change the political balance in the sea around CYPRUS.
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also:
ECONOMIC VALUE OF THE RESOURCES
Prospecting got under way at the start of 2011 and about 140 to 220 billion
cubic metres of natural gas was found in the 12th zone, known as the Aphrodite
field. This caused great excitement in GREEK CYPRUS. It strengthened the belief
that there were several more fields waiting to be discovered in the EASTERN
MEDITERRANEAN and so put a spotlight on the region. Prospecting activities are
being carried out in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN concentrated on three main zones
of the Levant, Nile Delta Basin and the Herodotus Basin. The GREEK CYPRIOTS have
focused on the Levant Field which comprises ISRAEL, LEBANON, SYRIA, and the
island of CYPRUS.
See
also: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html
According to estimates by the American Geological Research Board, there are
reserves of 3.45 trillion m3 of undiscovered natural gas, equivalent to 20
billion barrels of crude petroleum, in this field. If one compares this with
the 26 billion barrels in NORTH SEA reserves, the sixth largest reserves in the
world, it would appear that these deposits could make the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
into a second NORTH SEA in the future. And if one takes the estimates further,
there are estimates that there could be reserves of 15 trillion m3 of gas under
the sea between CYPRUS and CRETE.
GAS RESERVES UNDER THE EASTERN
MEDITERRANEAN ARE TOO LARGE TO OVERLOOK
These figures suggest that it would not be
astonishing if the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN suddenly became a centre of attraction in the energy
sector. RUSSIA has large natural gas reserves of 44 m3, Iran 33 m3, and TURKMENISTAN
24 m3, so the estimates for natural gas reserves under the EASTERN
MEDITERRANEAN are too large to overlook. If the current prospecting activities
do result in definite finds, then the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN could become a new CASPIAN
or NORTH SEA in global politics.
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also:
But it is still too early to describe the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN as a new
energy centre in global energy calculations. Until current drilling works are
completed, these figures are no more than speculation. The most important
aspect responsible for the global excitement, i.e. the real area of dispute,
will emerge if these estimates are confirmed. If prospecting does conclude with
the discovery of large scale deposits of hydrocarbons in the region, then their
extraction and utilisation will be a common headache for all the actors in the
region.
In other words, if these deposits are discovered, disputed waters in
the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN will start getting hotter. But extracting the
reserves and transporting them to their markets will require many years. On the
most optimistic projections, 2018 is the earliest date at which any gas finds
in the Aphrodite field could be used. Consequently there would be a significant
advantage for the countries involved, if existing and potentially problems
could be overcome.
TRANSPORTING THE RESERVES
Energy specialists often say that it is not discovering the gas which is
important but actually getting it to the markets. South CYPRUS’S annual
consumption of natural gas is around 1 billion m3 and that of ISRAEL about 5
million m3. But it is still not clear how the portion which is not consumed is
to be transported. Currently Southern CYPRUS has no infrastructure for
transporting natural gas and so various alternatives are being examined to
overcome this shortcoming. The first alternative placed on the table so far is
for an LNG terminal with an annual capacity of 21 billion m3 to be built at
Vasiliko on the south of the island or for a floating LNG platform. But LNG is
not a profitable option as the plant would cost $8-10 billion and there would
be the costs of transport and liquefaction on top of that. Though the parties
involved insist they are going ahead with the project, a solution has yet to be
found to overcome the technical and financial difficulties involved.
See
also:
At this point, the idea of transporting the reserves through a pipeline
comes on to the agenda. A pipeline is relatively cheap compared to a LNG
terminal and one of the possible routes being considered is for it to go across
Israel and join the Arab Natural Gas pipeline. Although this would be possible
in theory, this option is currently not finding favour because of likely
security problems and in particular uncertainty over when the clashes in SYRIA
will come to an end. Another option would be to build an undersea pipeline
between Southern CYPRUS and GREECE which would convey the reserves to the EUROPEAN
UNION. But the distance involved is lengthy and financial and technical
problems are also considerable and so this pipeline is not a frontrunner.
Finally one might regard TURKEY, which has considerable experience with both
pipelines and energy transportation, as an important option here. A pipeline to
transport the gas to EUROPE via TURKEY would be equivalent to the cost of only
10% of an LNG terminal. But the future of this pipeline scheme is deadlocked by
political problems. TURKEY does not recognize GREEK CYPRUS and TURKEY has
opposed its prospecting activities and so there is no possibility under
existing conditions of its getting together with Southern CYPRUS on a joint
venture project.
See also:
To conclude: the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN is going to have an extremely lively
future. The discovery of new reserves and the question of transporting them
could trigger a new political dispute involving several parties and problems. TURKEY
would be involved in the inevitable disputes, so it has to use the time
available to it intelligently. It needs to back up its presence in the
prospecting field with diplomacy and thought-out preparations in order to
prepare for a period when current strategies will be inadequate. Rather than project
the image of an aggressive actor who causes problems, it needs to utilise its
existing capacity to generate comprehensive strategies based on a full
awareness of the seriousness of the issue.
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