ISRAEL REDEFINES VICTORY IN THE NEW MIDDLE EAST
By Yaakov Lappin via GSI
Senior ISRAELI officials have indicated this month that any
round of future fighting with Hezbollah will make last month's Gaza conflict
seem minor by comparison. Offense, not defense, is still preferred.
ISRAEL is redefining its concept of
military victory in a MIDDLE EAST dominated by terrorist organizations turned
quasi-state actors.
ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES (IDF) “KNOCKOUT” IMAGE – OUT OF DATE
IN THE 21ST CENTURY BATTLE ARENAS OF THE REGION
SEIZING CONTROL OF THE ENEMY'S TURF IS SEEN AS A SHORT-TERM
INITIATIVE
Today, the goal of seizing control
of the enemy's turf is seen as a short-term initiative, and assuming long-term
control and responsibility for hostile populations is a highly unpopular development
among strategic planners, who now argue that this should be avoided wherever
possible.
For decades, the IDF has been facing
irregular asymmetric terrorist organizations which can change form, melt away
and reform according to their needs.
The last time ISRAEL fought direct
battles with organized, hierarchical military foes was during the 1973 Yom
Kippur War. Today, as the main goal of most conflicts, victory has been
replaced by deterrence. Deterrence, rather than clear-cut conquest or triumph
over the enemy, has formed the goal of ISRAEL'S last three conflicts: the
Second LEBANON War of 2006; Operation Cast Lead against Hamas and Islamic Jihad
in 2009 and Operation Pillar of Defense against the same entities in Gaza in
November.
WAS THE SECOND LEBANON WAR A REAL VICTORY FOR HEZBOLLAH?
Although the Second LEBANON War was
claimed by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as a "divine victory,"
six and a half years later, at the end of 2012, Hezbollah has still not
repaired all of the damage it suffered in that conflict, and the LEBANESE-ISRAELI
border has never been quieter. Despite several glaring tactical and operational
shortcomings, as a deterrent the Second LEBANON War was an ISRAELI victory.
Nevertheless, deterrence-based
military achievements are temporary by nature. At some point, deterrence erodes
away, and must be reestablished all over again. This is what happened in Gaza
last month. And the IDF has been preparing for a fresh confrontation with
Hezbollah in LEBANON, which today is armed with at least 50,000 rockets and
missiles, many of them with a range of 200 kilometers that can strike deep
inside ISRAEL.
1500 TARGETS STRUCK IN GAZA DURING NOVEMBER'S OPERATION OVER
THE COURSE OF 8 DAYS, COULD HAVE BEEN STRUCK IN 24 HOURS HAD THE IAF ELECTED TO
DO SO
Quietly, the ISRAEL Air Force has
been upgrading its weapons systems to allow it to face down Hezbollah with
enhanced firepower. The new systems currently installed in IAF jets mean that a
very large number of targets can be struck in LEBANON from the air within a
very short period of time. The 1500 targets struck in Gaza, for example, during
November's operation over the course of eight days, could have been struck in
24 hours had the IAF elected to do so.
ISRAELI intelligence has been
mapping out the weapons storehouses in southern LEBANESE villages and towns,
and building up a long list of targets, for the day that ISRAEL'S deterrence
runs out.
The IDF's evolving new doctrine
involves short spells of fighting, in which the IDF hits the other side hard –
hard enough to ensure that the ISRAELI home front will enjoy prolonged calm
after the fighting ends. As opposed to the mission of utterly destroying Hamas
or Hezbollah, such limited goals can be obtained quickly. Hezbollah is fully
aware, meanwhile, that should it begin another conflict, it will reap major
destruction on LEBANON.
See related Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring article: IDF long-range,
largely clandestine and multi-service missions and Depth corps, a new concept for
the IDF at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/idf-israeli-defense-forces.html
FLEXIBLE DOCTRINE
The ISRAELI doctrine is flexible. It
allows the IDF to choose the severity of the blows it lands on the enemy,
depending on the circumstances of each fight, and the adversary involved.
Senior ISRAELI defense sources have
indicated this month that any future round of fighting with Hezbollah will make
last month's Gaza conflict seem minor by comparison. Even if the goal will not
be to destroy Hezbollah, the organization is still susceptible to enormous
damage; it is well aware of its exposure to overwhelming ISRAELI firepower.
The day after a future conflict
ends, one defense source said this month, Hezbollah will have to "get up
in the morning and explain to their people" why they invited yet more
destruction to LEBANON.
HAMAS AND HEZBOLLAH MORE VULNERABLE THAN EVER
The fact that Islamist terror
organizations Hamas and Hezbollah have formed political entities, and are
responsible for managing the affairs of their people, means that they are more
vulnerable than ever.
Unfortunately, the rocket and
missile capabilities possessed by both means that ISRAELI civilians are also in
the firing line; and the IDF is not counting on rocket defense systems such as
Iron Dome to prevent wide-scale damage and secure future victories. Even in the
service of the limited goal of deterrence, offense, not defense, is still
preferred.
Finally, the new doctrine is not
fixed in stone; should ISRAEL ever find that it cannot deter the enemies on its
borders, it may choose to revert to its older method of defending its citizens:
fully vanquishing hostile forces, despite the price it may have to pay.
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