OLD
ACTORS ARE LOSING THEIR GEOPOLITICAL INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
Source: Aspeninstitute
In 1998, Zbigniew Brzezinski argued that “a power that
dominates EURASIA would control two of the world’s three most advanced and
economically productive regions. A mere glance at the map also suggests that
control over EURASIA would entail AFRICA’S subordination, rendering the WESTERN
Hemisphere and OCEANIA geopolitically peripheral to the world’s central
continent”.
His
book The Grand Chessboard was indeed a major contribution to
geopolitical studies. Depicting the new challenges for US foreign policy in a
multipolar world, Brzezinski identifies the geopolitical Achilles’ heel of the 21st
century in the area he designated as the GLOBAL BALKANS, i.e. “the swathe of EURASIA
between EUROPE and the FAR EAST.”
An
arena of historical disputes among the UNITED STATES, RUSSIA and EUROPE, and a
source of regional instability, the BALKANS are undergoing an uncertain
transition towards a new security architecture; new forces are playing an
increasingly crucial role and old actors are losing their geopolitical
influence over the region. The gradual decline of US leadership coincides with
the EUROZONE recession: the EU is perceived as unable to provide the BALKANS
with a new pathway towards a form of pan-EUROPEAN integration and incentives
for major structural and economic reforms. This political vacuum is exposing
the area to the influence of other active powers, such as TURKEY and even ISRAEL,
but above all RUSSIA.
Background Information:
EUROPEAN POLITICS IN THE BALKANS
RUSSIA’S ULTIMATE GEO-STRATEGIC GOAL IS TO RE-FRAME A
CONTINENTAL BLOCK AGAINST THE ATLANTIC POWERS
Vladimir
Putin’s renewed EURASIANISM validates this assumption.
Alexander Dugin, a RUSSIAN politologist close to the Kremlin and the military
entourage, acknowledges that RUSSIA’S ultimate geo-strategic goal is to
re-frame a continental block against the ATLANTIC powers, by making use of the
vast strategic and demographic potential of the EURASIAN continent. Following
this approach, RUSSIA should adopt a multi-dimensional foreign policy waiving
close relations with the EU, CHINA and the regional powers, such as IRAN and TURKEY.
The
Post-Soviet Space (Bližee Sarubeže or Near Abroad in
Russian’s political rhetoric) stresses the historical and cultural affinities
with the Slavic communities and represents a pivotal area for Moscow’s external
projection. Energy links are the key tools of political leverage for RUSSIA’S
power projection towards this Near Abroad.
“SOUTH STREAM” PROJECT
The
“South Stream” project represents the cornerstone of this trend: the pipeline,
once completed, will pump RUSSIAN gas under the Black Sea to BULGARIA,
branching off in two directions, north to AUSTRIA and south to ITALY.
Considering that EUROPE’S demand for gas imports is projected to grow
significantly in the next few years (reaching 80 billion cubic meters by 2020
and surpassing 140 billion cubic meters by 2030) the South Stream project will
be crucial for the EUROPEAN energy supply.
With
the intent of securing political commitment to the South Stream Project, RUSSIA
has signed inter-governmental agreements with several BALKAN states, such as CROATIA,
SLOVENIA, SERBIA and BULGARIA. Moscow is aiming at promoting deeper economic
integration in the BALKANS, possibly persuading the countries of the region to
join the Customs Union between RUSSIA, BELARUS and KAZAKHSTAN.
RUSSIA’S INCREASING COMPETITION WITH CHINA
The
Near Abroad is not just seen as an area of natural expansion of RUSSIAN
interests, but also a factor in Moscow’s increasing competition with CHINA – –
now an active competitor in the BALKANS. The uncertainty over the future of the
EUROZONE was inevitably exported to the EU periphery with a GDP contraction of
5.2% in 2009 in BALKAN countries. Moscow is making its influence felt as a
reliable counterpart for the BALKAN countries. The unresolved KOSOVO question
and the relative (or at least temporary) weakening of the EU’s and NATO’s
direct role in the region are viewed by Moscow as an opportunity.
SERBIA TO OBTAIN LOANS FROM RUSSIA IN EXCESS OF $800 MILLION
Encouraging
RUSSIAN companies to invest in the region and raising the flag of cultural
affinity, RUSSIA eyes the BALKANS as an economic hub to ensure better access to
EUROPEAN markets. In SERBIA, the election of the RUSSIAN-leaning President
Tomislav Nikolić is accelerating projects for the enhancement of hydro-electric
stations, the advancement of the railway tracks and the rearming of the SERBIAN
military. As a complement to those projects, Belgrade is also expected to
receive RUSSIAN credits to the tune of $800 million.
In
2011, RUSSIA promoted large investments in the real estate sector in MONTENEGRO
as well as in the oil and gas sector in MACEDONIA. In turn, more than 200 SLOVENIAN
companies are operating in almost 50 RUSSIAN regions. To put this into context,
EU FDIs have steeply declined in the last few years.
RUSSIA’S FOREIGN POLICY IN THE BALKANS LEVERAGES ENERGY
LINKS......
Meanwhile,
lack of funds and of a reliable supply of natural gas are the main reasons for
the stalemate of the EU’s flagship project of the Southern Gas Corridor – The
Nabucco pipeline, the gas bridge from ASIA to EUROPE that was designed
essentially to by-pass RUSSIA and link the TURKISH-BULGARIAN border to
Baumgarten in AUSTRIA via BULGARIA, ROMANIA and HUNGARY. Once completed the
1,300km pipeline’s annual capacity will be between 10-23 billion cubic meters,
one third of the actual capacity of South Stream.
Background Information:
ENERGY EQUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE
BALKANS
TRANS-ANATOLIAN PIPELINE: A GEOPOLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT, BUT NO
PANACEA FOR TURKEY’S ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
A
widely shared perception is that as RUSSIA’S foreign policy in the BALKANS
leverages energy links to promote diplomatic and security ties, and vice-versa,
the EU may be de facto disengaging from the region.
The
EUROPEANS remain committed to the principle of stabilization through
integration, adopted in the late 1990s in the form of both military and
civilian missions – the largest of which is currently EULEX in KOSOVO, aiming
at promoting the rule of law with an executive mandate.
However,
if the EU is to be a decisive player in the future, Brussels will have to
identify new synergies in its pursuit of the enlargement process and the
creation of a security architecture in the BALKANS. This will allow the
promotion of its interests – within the framework of a common EUROPEAN space –
while also entailing an economic cooperation with RUSSIA from a better
bargaining position.
No comments:
Post a Comment