THE CASPIAN REGION: A FUTURE WAR ZONE?

AZERBAIJAN AND THE TRANS - ADRIATIC ENERGY PROJECT

Via Stratrisks

Geopolitical importance of the CASPIAN basin is reaching new levels amid growing conflict zones throughout the world.

Regional countries` are showing off their naval muscles at sea, increased military exercise activities cause several questions as regards to the future of the region. Experts analyze these processes from different aspects, with the threat of war looming in the region.

Background Information: 

THE WINNING FORMULA TO DESTABILIZE RUSSIA’S CAUCASUS AND THE MIDDLE EAST http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/09/dagestan-syria-comes-to-russia.html

Geopolitical processes around the CASPIAN basin appear to be intensifying. The region has always been a focal point of the superpowers, in recent past however the issue has reached a new geopolitical level and it`s what attracts the attention of experts. Firstly, the battle for the region`s energy resources has in fact begun. This started after AZERBAIJAN expressed preference for the Trans-Adriatic energy project.

AZERBAIJAN`S eco - strategic decision changed the geopolitical dynamics in the CASPIAN basin. Some countries look enviously at this project, which opens ample opportunities, including CENTRAL ASIA for energy resource distribution to the West. In reality, these entities are concerned about the fact that they have no mechanisms of pressure against AZERBAIJAN, which is pursuing its independent policy.

Tension caused by the struggle for energy recourses of the region was evident by the behavior of some neighboring countries one or two years ago. Last year, for example, Deutsche Welle said that “TURKMENISTAN confirmed its participation in the militarization of the CASPIAN” (by conducting exercises – Newtimes.az). The major reason behind this was “the IRANIAN crisis and contradictions among CASPIAN littoral states”.

CASPIAN BASIN: INCREASED FOCAL POINT OF WEST AND EAST

Certainly geopolitical developments with respect to IRAN have influence of what is going on in the CASPIAN basin. However, it would not be right to link all factors to only this. Energy recourses of the USA, EUROPEAN UNION, RUSSIA and CHINA as well as their struggle for geopolitical dominance should also be taken into account, for they play a central role in the geopolitical processes taking place in the CASPIAN basin.

Western media reports have recently said that RUSSIA and IRAN plan to hold a combined naval exercise in the CASPIAN SEA. Richard Weitz, a senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Affairs at Hudson Institute, believes that “Caspian complexities block RUSSIA-IRAN naval axis” (see: Richard Weitz. Global Insights: Caspian Complexities Block Russia-Iran Naval Axis // “World Politics Review”, 2 July, 2013).

QUARREL OVER CASPIAN SEA EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE

But why has the situation turned so complex? The central issue here is the fact that the superpowers have failed to reach consensus with respect to the issues of regional security and the use of energy resources of the region. Against this backdrop, the situation has become tense in the CASPIAN region and the superpowers started showing off their military muscles in the basin.

Another potential for conflict is the growing competition in the region by CASPIAN bordering states` failure to define a CASPIAN SEA exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The main reason as to why the CASPIAN SEA EEZ has not yet been defined is that each littoral state has its own view of the division of the sea. Their positions have been thoroughly analyzed so far. CASPIAN bordering states have failed to reach consensus since the problem emerged. Although RUSSIA, AZERBAIJAN and KAZAKHSTAN signed some document on delimitation, TURKMENISTAN and IRAN remain opposed to it.

In general there is not a shared stance on how to divide the oil-rich sea bed among the littoral states. What deters RUSSIA and IRAN is that dividing the sea into “national sectors” will give AZERBAIJAN full independence. TURKMENISTAN, which seeks the biggest share of energy resources, is opposed to Baku`s proposal.

GEOPOLITICAL STORM IN THE CASPIAN SEA

There are two main factors causing tension in the CASPIAN SEA basin. First, certain regional states are concerned about AZERBAIJAN`S strengthening policy of independence. This is why they raise the issue of TURKMENISTAN. Secondly, RUSSIA, CHINA and the USA cannot define who will be playing the role of the regional leader. This paves the way towards a dangerous trend – namely showing off military muscles in the CASPIAN. It`s no coincidence that RUSSIAN media publishes headlines such as “A geopolitical storm in the CASPIAN SEA”. 

RUSSIA and KAZAKHSTAN launched military exercises in the CASPIAN SEA. President Putin, during his visit to AZERBAIJAN, was accompanied by DAGESTAN missile ships. Military experts believe that there are three reasons why the navy ships accompanied Mr Putin to AZERBAIJAN`S capital. Firstly, RUSSIA intends to protect its geopolitical interests in the wake of the WEST`S increasing role in the region. Secondly, Moscow pursues certain economic interests in the region. Thirdly, there is a growing necessity for a joint venture in fighting terrorism.

INCREASED INFILTRATION OF RADICAL ELEMENTS IN THE REGION 

Many political analysts believe that combating radical groups on an international scale has become a pressing issue for the region. Various sources believe that Al-Qaeda is divided into several small uncontrolled cells which are becoming an increasing threat. Interestingly to note is that one of the possible approaches to the new threat of terrorism is to try to convince local governments to fight the terrorists.

This means that the USA are not the only focal point of radical religious groups for even  countries with considerable amount of Muslim citizens are increasingly becoming targets themselves, a trend which could have fatal consequences. In this context it is understandable that RUSSIA is starting to take serious anti-terror measures near its southern borders. However, there is another issue worthwhile to notes:

For the West, the geopolitical aspect and anti-terror war are closely interconnected. Thus it is extremely difficult to define where to cross the line between these two notions. Furthermore, when talking about the “fight against terrorism”, the West refers mostly to Muslim radical groups, which seems to casts a shadow on a threat like the ARMENIAN terror. It appears that countries like AZERBAIJAN are unilaterally involved in the anti-terror war in the interests of Western powers which causes provoking consequences. Western as well as Eastern entities, for geopolitical reasons, want to bring young independent countries under their geopolitical umbrella under the pretext to fend off terrorism. In this sense, efforts like conducting military exercises in a region like the CASPIAN basin and provoking new controversies over energy transportation routes are becoming extremely dangerous.

The aforementioned analysis showcases that it is well worth considering that against the background of the strengthening competition in the CASPIAN basin, showing military muscles is a priority. The region`s geopolitical importance has undoubtedly increased. And the fact that this process is taking place amid the geopolitical struggle between the USA and RUSSIA points to the existence of certain threats. Resorting to weapons can provoke serious negative impacts in the CAUCASUS-CENTRAL ASIA region.