MALI – SAHEL AND FRANCE

FLASHBACK: WHEN IT COMES TO ENERGY, THE SAHEL COULD BE TO FRANCE WHAT IRAQ WAS TO THE USA

INSTABILITY IN THE SAHEL COULD PROMPT INCREASED MIGRATION AND ILLICIT TRAFFICKING WHICH IS BOUND TO SPILL OVER INTO EUROPE.

Source: QZ

In the first days of the invasion of MALI, FRENCH president Francois Hollande promised that his country had “neither economic nor political interests” in MALI.

While that’s true, FRANCE has important strategic interests in promoting stability in the SAHEL, the strip of land between the SAHARA and the tropical SAVANNA underneath, covering parts of SENEGAL, MAURITANIA, ALGERIA, NIGER, CHAD, SUDAN, CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC  and ERITREA–in addition to MALI.

Beyond FRANCE’S historical connection to the region (many of its former AFRICAN colonies were located there), FRANCE has a profound economic interest in the area, if not in MALI itself.

Background Information: 

EU INVOLVEMENT IN MALI

Why the SAHEL is crucial to EUROPE'S neighborhood – and its security strategy

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/07/eu-involvement-in-mali.html

URANIUM EXTRACTION IN MALI? 

FRANCE receives almost 80% of its energy from nuclear power, more than any other country in the world. The state-owned energy giant, Areva, which mines for uranium and builds and operates nuclear plants, gets a third of its uranium  from two mines in NIGER, where it is the second largest employer after the state. Later this year, Areva is expected to begin extracting uranium from a site called Imouraren, which is thought to contain the second largest uranium deposit in the world.

Al-Qaeda’s fate in MALI, where the group’s NORTH AFRICAN wing has taken a serious role in the ongoing conflict, is intertwined with its position in NIGER, as the two countries have become the group’s main strongholds in the SAHEL. As a precaution, FRANCE has even dispatched troops to NIGER to guard its mines there.

Background Information: 

POROUS BORDERS TURN LIBYA INTO RADICAL SANCTUARY Read entire article at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/10/libya-wild-west-of-northern-africa.html

SEVEN ECONOMIES IN SUB - SAHARAN AFRICA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AMONG THE TEN FASTEST GROWING ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD. Read entire article at:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/africa-forgotten-and-underestimated.html

MALI itself has few valuable resources other than gold, which represents 70% of its exports. That may be changing now as Rockgate, a Canadian mining company, begins to explore a uranium deposit at Faléa, a mine in WESTERN MALI straddling the border of SENEGAL and GUINEA. Areva is already exploring a deposit in SENEGAL (in Saraya), and there have been talks of a partnership between Rockgate and Areva to explore the mine in western MALI.

FRANCE didn’t go into MALI to protect its energy resources, but it bears remembering that FRANCE counts on stability in the SAHEL in order to continue satisfying its enormous uranium needs. And the region’s importance to FRANCE, and EUROPE at large, extends even beyond its role as energy supplier. Any instability in the SAHEL could also prompt increased migration and illicit trafficking, some of which is bound to spill over into Europe.

Background Information: 

FRANCE AND THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

FRANCE reluctant to be left alone to deal with another AFRICAN hotspot – MALI, CHAD and now the CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/10/france-and-central-african-republic.html

MALI AND FRANCE

THE INTERESTS BEHIND FRANCE'S INTERVENTION IN MALI

Source: DW.DE

FRANCE has intervened in MALI in an effort to stop the advance of Islamist rebels - at the request of the government in Bamako and with the UN's blessing. But critics accuse Paris of pursuing a neo-colonialist agenda.

It's unclear how long FRANCE'S military campaign in MALI will last, since preventing radical Islamists from taking control of the country requires stabilizing the region for the long term. The Society for Threatened Peoples (STP), a Göttingen-based NGO, has called on FRANCE to present a realistic plan for achieving its goals.

"After all, the Islamists will use their old strategy and pull back quickly in order to regroup with the protection of mountains and caves," explained STP spokesperson Ulrich Delius.

FRANCE TO ACT EARLY: IN ORDER TO PREVENT REBELS IN WESTERN AFRICA FROM BECOMING A DANGER TO EUROPE.

Officially, President Francois Hollande's government says that security interests explain its decision to intervene, and Paris insists it wants to act early to prevent the rebels in WESTERN AFRICA from becoming a danger to EUROPE.

"FRANCE fears that MALI could become a retreat and training center for Islamist terrorists if an Islamist state were established there," said Katrin Sold of the GERMAN Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

Related Article:

CHAD AND ITS OIL RESERVES

Mounting border conflict with SUDAN may hinder economic development 

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/10/chad-and-its-oil-reserves.html

Furthermore, the former colonial power sees itself as at risk of becoming a target for terrorist attacks. Since 2010, radical Islamists have held four FRENCH employees of the Areva energy company captive in MALI. And the terror network al-Qaeda is now threatening further kidnappings and attacks in FRANCE and against the approximately 5,000 FRENCH citizens living in MALI.

OIL AND URANIUM - MORE AT STAKE THAN THE RISK OF TERRORIST ATTACKS.

"In the long term, FRANCE has interests in securing resources in the SAHEL - particularly oil and uranium, which the FRENCH energy company Areva has been extracting for decades in neighboring NIGER," said Sold.

But much time will pass before MALI'S resources can be extracted, so Sold believes security interests really are at the forefront in FRANCE'S current military intervention.

AFRICA expert Delius agrees, noting that when it came to military involvement in LIBYA, many countries had an interest there, especially in oil. With MALI, he said, it's different, and Paris seems to be following a concrete set of goals.

Background Information: 

LIBYA A FAILED STATE

Volatile SAHEL region

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/10/libya-failed-state.html

 

LIBYA THE WILD WEST OF NORTHERN AFRICA

Porous borders turn LIBYA into radical sanctuary

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/10/libya-wild-west-of-northern-africa.html

But sending troops to MALI represents a tightrope walk for FRANCE. The country may be out to defend its political and security interests, but there's a danger of seeming neo-colonialist. However, FRANCE is sticking to the demands of a UN mandate passed in December 2012.

"There is a defense agreement between FRANCE and MALI that was written for exactly such cases," stressed Alexander Stroh, a researcher at the GERMAN Institute of Global and Area Studies.

As such, FRANCE could be said to be simply fulfilling its obligations to MALI'S government by preventing the rebel groups from marching on the capital.

CONTRADICTORY POLICIES

FRENCH President Francois Hollande must keep an eye on promises made domestically, as well. During his election campaign in 2012, he promised to withdraw troops from AFGHANISTAN and bring soldiers home. Now he may suffer a loss of credibility by sending FRENCH armed forces to AFRICA.

The difficult budget situation at home presents further complications, especially for a prolonged engagement in MALI. In order to push through his economic consolidation agenda, there's little room for costly foreign policy maneuvers.

Background Information: 

DEMOCRATIC RECESSION: 9 OF THE 11 TOP CRUDE EXPORTERS ARE LABELED AS DICTATORSHIPS

There are currently 22 states in the world which earn over 60% of their respective GDP from oil (and gas), and are ruled by non-democratic, authoritarian regimes.

Read entire article at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/12/europe-and-arab-spring-that-never-sprung.html and

SEVEN ECONOMIES IN SUB - SAHARAN AFRICA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AMONG THE TEN FASTEST GROWING ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD. Read entire article at:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/africa-forgotten-and-underestimated.html

FRANCE does not want to operate alone in MALI and has urged a multilateral intervention in which AFRICAN troops are sent to the front. The UN Security Council has already approved the military intervention, and the EU has promised to train MALIAN soldiers. Those are both important points for Paris because they signal shared responsibility within EUROPE and support from Brussels.

MALDIVES: LOOMING “THUNDERSTORMS” IN PARADISE?

 

Common perceptions of the  Maldives

 THE PERILS OF RISING RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM IN THE MALDIVES

By Djan Sauerborn via securityobserver 

In recent months several newspapers, blogs and academic outlets have highlighted the tumultuous domestic skirmish between Nasheed and Waheed in the MALDIVES as well as the strategic balancing act of the Archipelago State between INDIA and CHINA. Surprisingly however the troubling rise of religious fundamentalism within the MALDIVES has not fully moved into the limelight of international media and organizations. This is especially astonishing, because the battle between moderate and extremist forces within the country has a strong impact on civil society as a whole. Islam, which only decades ago did not play a major role within the public sociopolitical sphere, has turned into a divisive “game changer”. Moderate, peaceful and inclusive forms of religious expression are being violently pushed aside by adherents of fundamentalism.

SHARIA AS THE SOLE SOURCE OF LEGAL GUIDANCE?

A protest movement aimed at implementing Sharia as the sole source of legal guidance within the archipelago state manifested itself as hundreds of men and women took to the street calling for the full enactment of Islamic Sharia. Today the judiciary of the island state under article 142 of the constitution is required to turn to Sharia regarding matters where codified law is silent. Since judicial competency is at best inadequate, and judges in the past have predominantly been chosen along party affiliation and not expertise, they have become easy targets for forces within the country advocating a hard-line implementation of Sharia. 

The other face of the Maldives

AUSTRALIA and INDIA have offered assistance in form of legal training, but more needs to be done to ensure the establishment of an unbiased, independent judiciary. One crucial step in the right direction would be a full-fledged translation of legal texts and documents from English into Dhivehi, the national language of the MALDIVES. If the judiciary remains incapable of fulfilling its role within the state, principles of good governance and democratic values will continue to suffer from erosion. In addition, changes to the constitution should be made, if the MALDIVES wants to be regarded as a pluralistic and liberal society. Under the current constitution non-Muslims are not allowed to become citizens which is a strong violation of article 18 of the Human Rights Charter (Right to freedom of thought, conscience and religion). Furthermore, the line between codified law and Sharia is becoming increasingly blurry. The parliament drafted a penal code bill which includes “Hudud” punishments, such as amputation for theft or flogging for fornication.

MANY YOUNG MALDIVIANS ARE INCREASINGLY SENT FOR EDUCATION TO MADRASAS ABROAD

The danger of radicalization is not a mere “de jure” threat. There have been several examples in the past months which exemplify a rise in extremist attitudes and actions. Maybe the most shocking incidence occurred in February of this year when a 15 year old traumatized teenage girl, who was raped several times by her stepfather, was sentenced to 100 lashes for having engaged in pre-marital sex and fornication. Although President Mohammed Waheed condemned the sentence saying that the country had to “set up a commission” and that this “case should not have come to the courts at all”, these statements seem shady. Waheed’s comments are not in line with his decision to form a coalition with the “Adhaalath Party”(Justice Party), which backed the flogging, saying “the purpose of penalties like these in Islamic Sharia is to maintain order in society and to save it from sinful acts. 

We must turn a deaf ear to the international organization which are calling to abolish these penalties”. The “Adhaalath Party” is one of the major forces actively lobbying for a rigid and strict implementation of Sharia. The key proponent for more austere religious practices is the current Minister of Islamic Affairs, Shaykh Shaheem Ali Saeed, who has been quoted saying that music and singing are “haram” (forbidden) and that Christians on the island who he calls “freemasons” are “out to wipe out Islam from the Island”. Another troubling phenomenon is the education of many young MALDIVIANS in madrasas abroad, especially in PAKISTAN and SAUDI ARABIA. 

Students who unknowingly attended more radical madrasas often return home to the MALDIVES, expressing their newly acquired fundamentalist views. Many link this new strand of radicalization to the increasing degradation of women, who in some cases are told to stay home and drop out of the labor market. The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics voiced their concern in November 2011 over potential female genital mutilation occurring in the MALDIVES.  

Democracy is above all the constructive interaction between differently minded sections of society. If certain opinions or beliefs are aggressively suppressed, and individuals or interest groups have to fear persecution and punishment for their views, democratic and pluralistic values cannot flourish. If instilling terror becomes an accepted “modus operandi” in everyday MALDIVIAN politics and political forces turn a blind eye or even encourage discriminatory atrocities, the young democracy will not make it out of adolescence. 

GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES

HOW WILL THE NEW WORLD ORDER BE SHAPED?  We have now reached the middle years of the century’s second decade, but the answers to questions about the nature of the world which awaits our children and grandchildren and how the new international political and economic order will take shape remain as obscure as ever. The last century was one of great disasters but also one of almost unbelievable progress in which the present international system was created. Now, however, the inadequacy of the system is becoming more evident each day. It is within this framework that the human race is nearly flopping in its war for survival.   A CHANGING WORLD   The world we live in today is very different from that of the recent past. Inter-governmental organizations like the UNITED NATIONS, the IMF, and the WORLD BANK, products of the Cold War are losing their ability to function and proving themselves inadequate in providing international security and preventing economic and financial crises. The consequence of such a situation is increased competition and disputes between different states, and perhaps even bloody wars. The nation state is being updated. As the UN system loses functionality, a return to the balance of power and to alliances resembling those of the 19th century – like the “Coalition of the Willing” –is gaining credence.  Globalisation, the opening of economies to international markets, leads both to great prosperity and to great imbalances. At the same time it also leads to universal values, such as human rights and freedoms, spreading and being appreciated throughout different countries and continents. The development of communications technology enables ordinary individuals to have easy and swift access to information and thus boosts their power to seek their rights. In many places there is a growing tendency towards protecting the rights of individuals rather than those of states, for liberal democracy to gain more of a social character as it spreads, and for growing environmental consciousness, and there is steadily more acceptance of the primacy of human rights. But in many places racial or social blockages, ethnic and religious impositions, and authoritarian administrations which mercilessly use violence even against their own people all still linger. This situation is the cause of mass uprisings by societies which for centuries have been exposed to injustice, wrongdoing, and contempt. The Middle East and North Africa have witnessed bloody revolutions of this kind, and religious-based extremist organizations that do not hesitate to resort to violence have turned into non-state, political actors influential in international relations.  ABSOLUTE POWER HAS COME TO AN END   The numbers of countries, their populations, standards of living, literacy ratios, volumes of production, and the variety of the things they produce are all increasing. People, goods, money, ideas, values, and technological innovations are all entering into circulation in the world at unbelievable speed. These changes lead to fundamental shifts in people’s mentalities and expectations. The conceptions of political and military power that have prevailed for centuries are now losing their meaning. No single country, no matter how strong it may be, and no single leader, no matter how authoritarian he or she may be, can single-handedly determine the agenda for the world or his or her country or simply do as they please. Non-state actors can flummox even superpowers. No one can take control of the global economy. New energy technologies are overturning traditional geopolitical strategies. Multilateral systems are being compelled to give way to bilateral agreements, balance of power politics, and the influence of regional dynamics. Increasingly, the world can no longer be run from a single decision-making centre or even joint decision-making centres. Conspiracy theories are becoming meaningless.   Therefore, in a world like the one just described, countries which suppose that the old conditions still remain – and which frame their policies in tune with them – are sure to be seriously disappointed. For this reason it is of vital importance that every country makes a sound appraisal of present international circumstances. What is even more important is that each country should contemplate the ways in which the new political, economic, security, and financial order of the 21st century will be shaped, the principles on which governments will rise, and where the world’s centres of gravity will come into being.   FOUR CENTERS OF GRAVITY   If TURKEY is to continue to view itself predominantly as a MIDDLE EASTERN country it will have to consider remaining involved with the problems of this wide region of vast natural resources stretching from AFGHANISTAN to NORTH AFRICA. This implies being involved for many years with one-man regimes, civil wars, and conflicts over ethnicity, religion, and sectarianism. What sort of role can TURKEY play in these lands that are (and will continue to be) rife with lawlessness, poverty, ignorance, and political turmoil. For how much longer will TURKEY be able to continue to open its arms to hundreds of thousands of refugees and asylum-seekers?   One of the centres of gravity in the 21st century world will be the group of ASIAN countries which form the Moscow-Beijing axis exemplified by the SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION. This axis is composed of countries which are politically authoritarian and economically liberal. While this axis enables its two giant powers to exert some control over each other, it simultaneously aims to prevent AMERICA and the EU from intruding into their spheres of influence. This implies that neither RUSSIA nor CHINA want to see any changes in the existing order at the UN, an order which gives both of them the right to veto. Consequently, RUSSIA and CHINA prefer to keep the world system dysfunctional. So it is manifest that those countries whose development strategy is not based on paying workers at close to poverty levels will not be compatible with this international axis which does not prioritize human dignity, social justice, or the environment.   NORTH AMERICA will probably still form the most powerful centre of gravity in international affairs. AMERICA will continue to encourage the development of democracy in the world, but in order to help safeguard international security and stability and the creation of a new international economic order, the U.S. will persist in seeking solutions outside multilateral systems deadlocked by vetoes, like the UN and the World Trade Organization (WTO), and rely on the balance of power. The signs are clear how AMERICA is searching for such a new strategy in the way it is now intent on bilateral agreements such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership in economics and the “Coalition of the Willing” in security. The enlarged EUROPEAN UNION constitutes a further centre of gravity. Like a great axis, EUROPE will expand to include the entire continent. It will continue to prioritize several things: shared sovereignty in order to achieve the ideal of an open society and democracy based on a socially-informed, free economy which respects fundamental rights and equality between men and women, multilateral approaches, international law, and international bodies including the UN.   If, on the basis of the above, the world was to be divided into four centres of gravity, then there would be no more possibility for universal values to prevail in international relations, and competition between these four poles or axes might inescapably create conditions which would spell the end for humanity. Consequently countries and leaders which attach value to the continued existence of peace, democracy, and human rights in the world have a common endeavor: to ensure cooperation and solidarity with those in the four centres who share universal values, and also to prevent the world from splitting up into mutually hostile compartments.   The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which is under negotiation between the U.S. and the EU, and the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) launched between the U.S. and the ASIA-PACIFIC countries, are of great importance for world peace. They will have the effect of ensuring that these four rival centres will not be pitted against each other but will be economically united. Countries which remain outside this process will be obliged to conform to the outcome of negotiations in which they have not participated.   This article was firstly published in Analist Monthly Journal, in October 2013.