ENERGY HOTSPOT: EASTERN MED
CYPRUS, with its recent oil and gas
findings must have struck a jackpot one would assume, and the numbers and
expert views seem to concur with this assumption. The gas findings also triggered
a major geopolitical shift in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA, creating new alliances
between ISRAEL, CYPRUS and GREECE, as well as RUSSIA’S stance on gas supply to TURKEY,
for energy is one of the cornerstones of the RUSSO-TURKISH relationship.
RUSSIA provides approximately 58
percent of TURKEY’S natural gas supplies, making it TURKEY'S largest natural
gas supplier. Ankara has long sought ways to reduce its dependence on RUSSIAN
natural gas, since Moscow traditionally uses its energy supplies as political
leverage with many of its customers. For its part, RUSSIA wants to keep TURKEY tied
to it through energy and to prevent other suppliers from helping Ankara
diversify its natural gas sources. Thus, RUSSIA wants to increase its leverage
in its energy relationship with TURKEY.
TURKEY, because of its “elephant in
a porcelain shop” foreign policy approach and double egged sword policies
concerning IRAN is becoming increasing isolated and thus more nervous of
loosing influence in the region, both as a self-proclaimed mentor of the Arab
world and of becoming the Mediterranean’s main gas and oil distribution hub,
which now it seems will be CYPRUS, TURKEYS arch foe. Thus it comes as no
surprise that Turkey is venturing further out to Asia, in particular Pakistan
and India.
TURKEYS ERRANT GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
IN THE REGION
TURKEYS double egged sword policies
become obvious when Ankara became deeply engrossed in an effort to have the new
IRANIAN and IRAQI pipelines to EUROPE routed through TURKEY, reducing the
Strait of Hormuz’s crucial importance as a primary route for the world’s oil
supplies. This pipeline would also hurt SAUDI ARABIA and the other Gulf oil
producers, all of whom are dead set against Erdogan’s hegemonic aspirations in
the Middle East.
Furthermore,
growing anti-AMERICAN sentiment in TURKISH public opinion and TURKEY’S
NEO-OTTOMAN reach now involves interference in IRAQI politics, in IRAQ’S
KURDISH areas, policy shifts on SYRIA, support for HAMMAS and HEZBOLLAH and
hostility toward ISRAEL. As a result, Erdogan has become the hero of the ARAB countries,
or so it seems. There are numerous new threats emanating from TURKEY including
threats towards CYPRUS, the EU etc.
CONTRADICTING TURKISH FOREIGN POLICIES, - OR A GENIUS
GEOPOLITICAL MOVE?
TURKEY
seems to exploiting its current economic position. However, a closer
examination of TURKEY’S economy apparently shows parallels to the economies of ARGENTINA
and MEXICO before their collapse. TURKEY’S recent anti-Western behavior,
including military exercises with CHINA; cooperation between IRANIAN and TURKISH
banks to bypass western sanctions etc add to TURKEYS errant geopolitical
strategies which don’t seem to make much eco – political sense. In fact they
contradict each other. On the one hand TURKEY cut its ties with ISRAEL in order
to be the hero of the ARABS but at the same time economic alliances between the
two countries are thriving. See: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/see-no-evil-hear-no-evil.html
Another
contradiction is the stance on SYRIA, when at the same time TURKEY seems to
“flirt” with IRAN on various geopolitical issues, despite the fact that TURKEY
is supporting SUNNI SAUDI ARABIA and a potential clash between IRAN and TURKEY as the two countries
compete over leadership in the Islamic world seems more imminent than ever.
Given its recent anti western policies it is only a matter of time that certain
western countries will seriously question TURKEYS remain in NATO. Loosing TURKEY
as a NATO partner though poses a serious strategic dilemma for NATO and its
Easter flank. Also see:
CYPRUS: FLEXING ITS MUSCLE?
CYPRUS on the other hand realizes
that with the prospects of gas and oil extractions, it will become an economic
stronghold and thus more eco-politically independent and will see no need to
reach an agreement or solve the NORTHERN CYPRUS problem, as deemed essential by
TURKEY in order to obtain a share of the energy cake.
Recent developments in CYPRUS not
only caused nervousness in TURKEY but also the USA, for CYPRUS, traditionally tends
to side with RUSSIA, rather than the USA, thus it is obvious that the USA and US
ally TURKEY are trying to influence the political developments in the region. CYPRUS’S
recent official request to close the two BRITISH Military Bases on the Island
are just one of the many indicators that CYPRUS is increasingly flexing its
muscle as a result of the prospects of extracting gas and oil in the not too
distant future.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUPS VIEWS ON EASTERN MED NATURAL
RESOURCE EXTRACTION AND SOLVING THE CYPRUS PROBLEM REFLECT SOLE US INTERESTS IN
THE REGION
In view of these developments it becomes
obvious that US proxies, such as the INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP (ICG) and US
Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy, Ambassador Richard Morningstar are sent in
to intervene for USA’S geopolitical and strategic objectives. In its latest
report on CYPRUS, the ICG claims that gas revenues are decades away and that
due to the unresolved CYPRUS dispute, natural resources extractions will drive
up costs and scare away investment from major oil companies! ICG further states
that hostilities are on the rise in the eastern Mediterranean since GREEK
CYPRIOTS began drilling for hydrocarbons last September; TURKEY responded with
tough talk, naval maneuvers threatening exploration operations, and agreements
with TURKISH CYPRIOTS to exploit hydrocarbons around the island. Voicing TURKEYS
stance through ICG becomes evident when the TURKEY – CYPRUS project director
claimed that a joint approach to eastern Mediterranean natural gas exploitation
would ensure benefits for all, while unilateral moves mean lower profits,
tensions and delays that could crush current projects and it is a CYPRUS settlement,
not far-away gas revenues, that can provide a quick and real economic bonanza
for all. To claim that unilateral moves mean lower profits, tensions and delays
in natural gas extraction is purely speculative and in most likelihood bear no
impact on gas extraction.
PUMPING CYPRIOT GAS TO TURKEY, WISHFUL THINKING FROM ICG
According to the Crisis Group’s
research, a pipeline pumping CYPRIOT gas to TURKEY would make sense not only
politically, but economically as well. In fact, a pipeline running from CYPRUS
to TURKEY’S south coast would cost about one-tenth of the price tag of a
liquefaction natural gas (LNG) plant. Though this might make economic sense,
politically such move will never occur, for too deep is the rift between the
two ethnic entities, something outsiders are unable to understand. According
to independent experts, ICG’s claim regarding expenses involved in
the construction of an LNG plant, are exaggerated and do not reflect benefits for the regional economy and subsequent
job creations in the region.
TURKEY IS ANXIOUS TO GAIN UPPER HAND IN THE REGIONS ENERGY
BONANZA
According to ICG a top-level TURKISH
energy executive told the group that the pipeline infrastructure to export gas
to EUROPE could be built in two years, which showcases how anxious TURKEY is to
gain the upper hand in the energy bonanza in the region. The official further
stated that the other pipeline alternative – from CYPRUS to the GREEK mainland
– would be far too costly and pose a logistical nightmare. What this official
neglects to mention though is that when it comes to the new IRANIAN and IRAQI oil
pipelines, which, according to TURKEY should be routed through their
territories, costs and logistic nightmares are no cause for concern? The minute
the TAPLINE pipeline, running through SYRIA and ending in Haifa becomes reactivated,
TURKEY will lose even further on influence in the region, for the costs of
reactivating this pipeline is cheaper than the construction of new ones and the
geo strategic significance will alter geopolitics in the region even further. See:
ICG CLAIMS THAT TURKISH THREATS WILL
KEEP OIL COMPANIES AWAY FROM CYPRUS, A CONTRADICTORY CLAIM TO SAY THE LEAST
ICG
further states that extra risks associated with the unresolved CYPRUS conflict
will make any LNG development more expensive to finance and difficult to find
markets for, TURKISH threats will likely keep most major oil companies on the
sidelines and there is not yet enough CYPRIOT gas to make an LNG plant truly
profitable, and extra ISRAELI volumes seem unlikely. According NOBEL ENERGIES estimates
a combined CYPRUS ISRAELI and GREEK gas extraction volume justifies a LNG plant
in CYPRUS. (Referring to recent Southern Aegean gas and oil discoveries) http://www.defencegreece.com/index.php/2012/04/cretan-gas-fields-a-new-perspective-for-greeces-hydrocarbon-resources/
US INVOLVEMENT
Why suddenly the USA and in this
case particularly its proxy the ICG keep on emphasizing that EASTERN MED countries
should work together on energy! Surely such advises are not for the benefit of
the countries in question but for the USA and its allies.
Countries
in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN need to talk to each other and find logical
solutions so everyone can enjoy the “pots of gold” in the form of hydrocarbon
deposits littered across the region, said top US energy envoy.
US SPECIAL ENVOY FOR EURASIAN ENERGY
AND ICG STATEMENTS AND REPORTS REFLECT UNITY REGARDING CYPRUS PROBLEM AND THE
EASTERN MED NATURAL RESOURCE BONANZA
According to US Special Envoy for Eurasian
Energy, Ambassador Richard Morningstar* there
are multiple pots of gold out there in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN. And if
equitable solutions are found, everybody, all of the countries and their
citizens will gain; and if not, nobody is going to reap the whole benefits and
a lot of that gold might just sit out there for a long time. His statement and
views are precariously similar to that of ICG, which confirms that the USA has
its own agenda when it comes to EASTERN MED energy policies.
Speaking at the Investment Energy
Summit hosted by “The Economist”
(The Economist is part of the global
“CORPOCRACY” who use the magazine to voice their economic and political
agendas. See: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/economist-far-cry-from-renowned-and.html
and http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/economists-sorry-journalism.html) in Athens, he said
the energy resources of the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN presented too much of an
opportunity to ultimately let political and legal issues mess up the benefit
that it could have for the citizens of every country in the region. Furthermore
Morningstar referred to ISRAEL’S significant offshore finds of natural gas,
noting that GREECE too was working to identify potential hydrocarbons for
exploitation. Gas in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN is
an excellent opportunity that will help to create diversification which can
help Europe, and more importantly the countries of the region, who will benefit
from these resources.
In
offering advice to the region’s players, Morningstar stated that a low profile
is essential and that the parties involved need to look carefully at what their
interests are and make contact with other parties within the region, to try and
find solutions that make sense, so that everybody can benefit from these pots
of gold that are out there in the MEDITERRANEAN.
US DOUBLE EGGED SWORD POLICIES ON CYPRUS
Regarding
the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons in CYPRUS’ exclusive economic
zone (EEZ), the US apparently recognizes CYPRUS’ right to drill in its offshore
zone but at the same time reiterated that any potential revenue from future oil
and gas resources in CYPRUS should be equitably shared between both communities
and that the key message the US is sending to CYPRUS and TURKEY is to start
peace talks and a peaceful settlement.
US stance on recognizing CYPRUS’S EEZ but at the same time
asking the two communities to share future oil and gas resources clearly favors
TURKEY, USAs close ally. The chances that CYPRUS will share such findings with TURKEY
are hardly going to materialize, not now nor in the distant future.
Morningstar
further stated that extraction of energy resources, if done right, could help all
involved “get there”. And this would allow all of CYPRUS and other countries to
share the benefits of the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN. Reading between the lines this means that CYPRUS should be prepared to
share its gas findings with TURKEY
In July 2011 Washington joined the GREEK energy game. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton flew to Athens with energy on her mind. That was clear by the fact she brought along Special Envoy for EURASIAN Energy, Richard Morningstar. Morningstar was husband Bill Clinton’s Special Advisor to the President on CASPIAN Basin Energy Diplomacy. Morningstar, along with his controversial aide, Matthew Bryza, have been the key Washington architects of Washington’s geopolitically-motivated oil and gas pipeline projects that would isolate RUSSIA and its Gazprom gas resources from the EU. Bryza is an open opponent of RUSSIAN Gazprom’s South Stream gas pipeline that would transit the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN states. The USA seems to have its own agenda regarding GREEKS recent oil and gas discoveries, for three days after Hillary left Athens the GREEK government proposed creation of a new government agency to run tenders for oil and gas surveys and ultimate drilling bids.
US SPECIAL ENVOY FOR EURASIAN ENERGY, AMBASSADOR RICHARD MORNINGSTAR WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN BACKING THE CONTROVERSIAL B-T-C OIL PIPELINE FROM BAKU THROUGH TBILISI IN GEORGIA ACROSS TO THE TURKISH MEDITERRANEAN PORT OF CEYHAN
Morningstar is the US specialist in “economic warfare”: He was instrumental in backing the controversial B-T-C oil pipeline from Baku through Tbilisi in GEORGIA across to the TURKISH Mediterranean port of CEYHAN, a costly enterprise designed solely to bypass RUSSIAN oil pipeline transit. http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/warmongerning-between-israel-and-turkey.html
GREECE AND TURKEY SHOULD DROP ALL HISTORIC DIFFERENCES OVER CYPRUS AND POOL ALL THEIR OIL AND GAS RESERVES IN THE AEGEAN SEA
He has openly proposed that GREECE and TURKEY drop all historic differences over CYPRUS, over numerous other historic issues and agree to jointly pool all their oil and gas reserves in the Aegean Sea. He also has told the GREEK government it should forget cooperation with Moscow on the South Stream and Bourgas-Alexandroupolis gas pipeline projects.
On
the other hand CYPRUS’S strategic objective is to turn the country into a
regional energy centre that will gather, process, and transport or transit
resources from the area to international markets which will secure the
continuous and uninterrupted supply of energy for the permanent markets of the
EU.
CONTRARY TO ICG VIEWS, MANY FOREIGN OIL GIANTS INDICATED
THEIR INTEREST INVESTING IN CYPRUS
Such
a venture requires the necessary infrastructure, construction in CYPRUS of
underwater hydrocarbon transportation pipes but also oil storage terminals. It
is obvious that building such infrastructure, particularly a natural gas
liquefaction plant (LNG), is extremely high in cost and that is why CYPRUS is
seeking multilateral cooperation with the participation of other important
countries, particularly from the region (ISRAEL), and also other big energy
companies, keeping in mind that the state will have to hold a significant stake
in that project because of its strategic importance. Asides from US NOBLE
Energy and ISRAELI DELEK, CHINA NATIONAL OFFSHORE OIL CORPORATION has also
started negotiations with CYPRUS and GREECE regarding gas extractions. (See
next article)
See also:
Parts of
above content are adapted from “Defense Greece” and F. William
Engdahl’ s Oil Bonanza
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