TURKEY'S
GAMBLE ON KURDISTAN OIL
As
tensions rise among IRAQI KURDS in the country's north, SUNNIS in the south and the SHI'ITE-led government in
Baghdad over the distribution of natural resources, TURKEY is setting its
sights on an unconventional alliance with the KURDISTAN Regional Government
(KRG).
This is a gamble Ankara is willing
to take, despite the potential implications it could have for KURDS on its own
territory. As recently as 2009, Ankara had a very different view on the KRG,
going as far as to label its leader, Masoud Barzani, a "bandit" who
was turning a blind eye (at best) to KURDISH militants using NORTHERN IRAQ as a
base to launch cross-border attacks on TURKEY. The KURDISTAN Workers Party
(PKK) has been fighting the TURKISH government for more rights for decades.
So when Ankara began announcing a
series of bilateral deals with the KRG (deals that went above Baghdad's head),
everyone's first question was why would TURKEY want to align itself with an IRAQI
Kurdish leadership who is clearly making a play to create a sovereign KURDISH
state?
NORTHERN IRAQ STANDS TO BE ONE OF THE NEXT GREAT INVESTMENT
AREAS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Analysts at the intelligence firm
Jellyfish say this is not such an unexpected or even illogical development from
TURKEY'S standpoint, for NORTHERN IRAQ is a major market for TURKISH exports
and that oil and gas coming from IRAQI KURDISH territory is moved on to
worldwide markets through TURKEY.
From a financial and logistical
standpoint, an Ankara-Erbil marriage is one of exceptional convenience. On the
other hand one has to bear in mind that NORTHERN IRAQ stands to be one of the
next great investment areas in the MIDDLE EAST, and so far the KRG has managed
to outplay Baghdad in the natural resources and investment game.
The KRG signed a highly
controversial deal with ExxonMobil to explore for hydrocarbons in NORTHERN IRAQ.
The deal was signed without Baghdad's consent or consultation, which makes the
deal perceivably illegal. Baghdad attempted to auction off another set of
exploration blocks, but none of the big international players bid, balking at
(among other things) clauses forbidding anyone to deal exclusively with the
KRG.
PIPELINE DEALS – THE REAL REASON FOR THE CURRENT UP HEAVE IN
THE MIDDLE EAST?
Furthermore the KRG and TURKEY
announced plans to build a pipeline connecting Ceyhan, TURKEY, with NORTHERN
IRAQ, and that this pipeline could carry 1 million barrels of oil per day and
could be completed as early as August 2013. A second addition to the pipeline
would connect it directly to the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline by 2014. The
KRG plans to export crude oil to TURKEY, which will be refined in TURKEY and
re-exported to NORTHERN IRAQ.
A highly significant but oddly
underreported development that will boost the KRG's power play for autonomy in NORTHERN IRAQ was the expression
of support for the KRG's deal with ExxonMobil Ninewa province Governor Atheel
Nujaifi. Nujaifi—from his seat in the provincial capital of Mosul—officially
aligned himself with the KRG's oil rights moves against Baghdad, tipping the
balance of power in the KRG's favor. The Ninewa seal of approval also bodes
well for Exxon, as it signifies that there will be less violent opposition from
local leaders over its move to court the KRG.
Here again, Baghdad loses out. Ninewa today is one of the
last bastions of al Qaeda in IRAQ, and its blessing of the KRG-ExxonMobil deal
is significant in terms of security.
IRAQ'S oil is IRAQ'S oil, as far as
Baghdad is concerned, and the KRG does not have the authority to sign any
export deals on its own, even if it plans to divert revenues from sales to the IRAQI
central authority.
The KRG, however, has a number of
major power players behind it, from Ankara to Brussels and Washington, all of
whom would very much like to see IRAQI oil and gas find an easy way to Western
markets.
In the end, TURKEY'S stance on NORTHERN
IRAQ may seem like a paradox, but it is a logical move on many levels. With SYRIA
in a state of violent upheaval, militant KURDS who threaten TURKEY from across
that border, some experts argue, are no longer a focal point or even a threat
by comparison. And Ankara's burgeoning relationship with the KRG has allegedly
softened KURDISH militancy aimed at TURKEY in recent past.
THE SYRIAN EQUATION
The merger of SYRIAN and TURKISH Kurdish militias with the IRAQI KURDISH peshmerga would produce a KURDISH army of 225,000 fighting men.
Terrified that the separatism sweeping its brothers will infect the TURKISH KURDISH minority - and suspecting Washington of surreptitiously supporting it - TURKISH intelligence, the MIT, was instructed to establish and arm two TURKMEN militias in the SYRIAN KURDISH region: Brigades of Mehmet the Conqueror and Brigades of Sultan Abdulhamid.
REOPENING THE TRANS ARABIAN PIPELINE
“TAPLINE” WOULD BENEFIT NOT ONLY SAUDI ARABIA, THE USA AND ISRAEL, BUT ALSO
TURKEY
 |
| ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE |
The TRANS-ARABIAN Pipeline Company,
a joint venture by STANDARD OIL OF NEW JERSEY (ESSO), STANDARD OIL OF
CALIFORNIA (CHEVRON), THE TEXAS COMPANY (TEXACO) and SOCONY-VACUUM OIL COMPANY
(MOBIL), was a major factor in economic development of LEBANON after
independence and especially in the emergence of the south, Tapline was an
important industrial adventure in global trade, the petroleum industry and
AMERICAN - MIDDLE EAST politics.
The company which started operations
in 1950 was the largest oil pipeline of its time, transporting SAUDI ARABIAN
oil from the gulf fields to the terminal at ZAHRANI south of SAIDA, where it
was shipped to the markets of EUROPE and the eastern UNITED STATES seaboard. At
the peak of its operations in 1950, Tapline is said to have transported up to
30% of ARAMCO’S production of SAUDI ARABIAN crude, which amounted to 300,000
barrels per day which was increased by adding some additional pumping stations
to 500,000 barrels per day.
The pipeline was originally planned
to run from SAUDI ARABIA'S ABQAIQ oil fields to the port of HAIFA in PALESTINE
where there already was a modest terminal facility for a pipeline from the
Kirkuk oil fields in IRAQ. The conflict between the BRITISH MANDATE and the
ISRAELI INDEPENDENCE movement had the Tapline Company surveying alternate
routes already in 1946. These routes were all aimed at circumventing PALESTINE.
"TRANS-JORDAN" appeared also at the time to be a country to be
avoided. The final route went through JORDAN, over the GOLAN HEIGHTS in SYRIA -
and not without some political consequences - to end at SIDON in LEBANON.
NEW ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN
SYRIA IN ORDER TO REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN
OIL PIPELINE?
Many geo strategic analysts and
political experts are at odds over the reason why even the UNITED STATES, a key
ally of ISRAEL, is pushing for a regime change in SYRIA, even if such move will
probably turn SYRIA into a fundamentalist
Islamic State at the doorsteps of ISRAEL. It could be argued that the USA
and SAUDI ARABIA prefer a SUNNI fundamentalist Islamic government in SYRIA in
order to eliminate IRANIAN influence in SYRIA and at the same time reactivate,
for geo – strategic reasons, SAUDI ARABIA’S ARAMCO company constructed
TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE “TAPLINE”
REACTIVATION OF PIPELINE WOULD
ELIMINATE THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND ALSO BENEFIT TURKEY
Reactivation of the pipeline would
eliminate the geo strategic importance of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ and thus IRAN’S
leverage over the passage, through which 35% of the world’s crude oil is
shipped. Needless to say, a blockade would have enormous global consequences.
Sunni SAUDI ARABIA and Shiite IRAN have been at odds with each other over
theological as well as economic issues for centuries (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz)
PIPELINE ROUTE LEADS THROUGH PRO
IRANIAN SYRIA, THE GOLAN HEIGHTS AND LEBANON, THUS A SAUDI FRIENDLY REGIME IS
REQUIRED IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO ACTIVATE THE PIPELINE
In order to reactivate the TAPLINE
however, SAUDIA ARABIA and its allies need to eliminate IRAN’S influence in
SYRIA and stronghold in LEBANON, which is also home to pro IRANIAN HEZBOLLAH,
because the route of the pipeline leads over SYRIAN terrain, ISRAL occupied
GOLAN HIGHTS, ending in the Mediterranean oil terminal ZAHRANI, south of the
city of SAIDA in LEBANON.
Since SYRIA fosters close eco –
political ties with Shiite IRAN, SYRIA will hardly permit the reactivation of
the “SAUDI” Tapline on its soil. Not to mention the GOLAN HEIGHTS, which had
been seized by ISRAEL during the 6 day war and which are now monitored by
United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, UNDOF. Israel and Syria
technically are still at war, thus permitting reactivation of the Tapline on
the Syrian side of the seized Golan Heights is out of the question, for it
would need the consent of both, ISRAEL and SYRIA. (See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War
)
By tumbling the SYRIAN regime
however, SAUDI ARABIA would be able to expand its influence in SYRIA and
LEBANON, and thereby gain control over the pipeline and direct access to the
MEDITERRANEAN SEA oil terminal south of SAIDA, from where crude oil could be
shipped to EUROPE and the USA, at 40% less transport costs than by oil tankers
passing through the SUEZ Canal in EGYPT. One could now keep on speculating why
the “Arab Spring” in EGYPT did not turned out the way it was expected to be
expected by the protesters!
NORTHERN IRAQ AND TURKEY
 |
Economics has played the greatest
role in forging these new relations, and NORTHERN IRAQ has become a new staging
ground for TURKEY companies and investment, with TURKS owning an estimated 50
percent of all major businesses operating under the KRG-controlled territory.
Furthermore, the pipeline deal
announced between Ankara and the KRG in late May was in part a reaction to
pressure to reduce imports from IRAN, but it also follows a logical path in the
TURKEY-NORTHERN IRAQ relationship.
TURKEY knows that the pipeline deal
and other energy deals forged with the KRG will set the stage for the creation
of an independent KURDISH state. But in the meantime, TURKEY has made such a
heavy footprint in NORTHERN IRAQ that its level of influence there is and will
continue to be immense. As such, Ankara will wield much control over any
potential sovereign KURDISH state.
As for the KRG, it shows no signs of
backing down in the face of threats from Baghdad, and is hedging its bets that
the combination of its natural resource wealth and Western power brokers on its
side will give it the advantage. On June 11, the KRG told a gathering
of potential investors at a business convention in the northern capital
Erbil that it expected to quadruple oil production over the next three years,
and that today's 250,000 bpd would be up to 300,000 bpd by the end of this
year. The KRG is already translating this into a boom for other sectors beyond
energy.
Above article was written by Jen
Alic with additions made by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring
Background Information:
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/energy-games-in-eastern-mediterranean.htmlhttp://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/turkeys-middle-east-chess-game.html
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html
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