SYRIA - CAUSE AND EFFECT

NO PROVE - NO VERIFICATION 

Since the beginning of the uproar in SYRIA, mainstream media, political analysts etc. have been speculating about the cause and effect, the SYRIAN upraise has and will have  in the region, as well as who or what is behind it, and last but not least, why. Subsequently conspiracy theories such as US intelligence services involvement, foreign mercenary infiltration, PSY- OPS etc. have been on the rise. The fact is that none of the mainstream media reports can be verified or considered impartial, thus we are exposed to speculations and conspiracy theories, none of which we are able to confirm.

GEO STRATEGIC NIGHTMARE  

Geo strategically speaking, tumbling the Syrian government does not make sense. I have posted numerous articles about this topic on this blog. If the ASSAD regime is removed, ISRAEL’S worst nightmare will come true: Civil War in a neighboring Muslim country. Enough that EGYPT has become a geo strategic uncertainty factor for ISRAEL. ISRAEL can hardly afford an unstable EASTERN frontier. Such scenario will be a strategic and tactical nightmare.

One should not forget that although SYRIA and ISRAEL are technically still at war, the frontier  between the two countries has been the most stable one in the entire Middle East, thus all the speculative theories of ISRAEL and other US friendly ARAB countries trying to tumble the Assad are irrational. One can argue that SYRIA’S close ties with IRAN are one of the reasons ISRAEL and the US would like to see the Assad regime tumble, even so it is much easier for ISRAEL to clutch onto the current status quo, and live with the fact that IRAN is influencing SYRIA, rather than face a country in civil war which subsequently will end up being a FUNDAMENTALIST ISLAMIC state. 
So much as for rational thinking, but if looking at the entire situation from another angel, ISRAEL could shift its geopolitical doctrine towards a "irrational" one and support a regime change in SYRIA in order to gain a Geo-strategic advantage. ( The details of which will be analyzed in due cause on this blog )    

 

ARAB LEAGUE, GATEWAY FOR ASSAD TO EMERGE WITH MINIMUM COLLATERAL DAMAGE?

First feedback's from the ARAB LEAGUE s observer mission suggest that their observations and opinions are used as a gateway for the ASSAD regime to emerge with minimum collateral damage in order to sustain geo - strategic stability in the region.

IS THE TRANS ARABIAN PIPELINE “TAPLINE” THE ANSWER TO THE WHY?

The TRANS-ARABIAN Pipeline Company, a joint venture by STANDARD OIL OF NEW JERSEY (ESSO), STANDARD OIL OF CALIFORNIA (CHEVRON), THE TEXAS COMPANY (TEXACO) and SOCONY-VACUUM OIL COMPANY (MOBIL), was a major factor in economic development of LEBANON after independence and especially in the emergence of the south, Tapline was an important industrial adventure in global trade, the petroleum industry and AMERICAN - MIDDLE EAST politics.

The company which started operations in 1950 was the largest oil pipeline of its time, transporting SAUDI ARABIAN oil from the gulf fields to the terminal at ZAHRANI south of SAIDA, where it was shipped to the markets of EUROPE and the eastern UNITED STATES seaboard. At the peak of its operations in 1950, Tapline is said to have transported up to 30% of ARAMCO’S production of SAUDI ARABIAN crude, which amounted to 300,000 barrels per day which was increased by adding some additional pumping stations to 500,000 barrels per day.

The pipeline was originally planned to run from SAUDI ARABIA'S ABQAIQ oil fields to the port of HAIFA in ISRAEL where there already was a modest terminal facility for a pipeline from the Kirkuk oil fields in IRAQ. The conflict between the BRITISH MANDATE and the ISRAELI INDEPENDENCE movement had the Tapline Company surveying alternate routes already in 1946. These routes were all aimed at circumventing Palestine territories . "TRANS-JORDAN" appeared also at the time to be a country to be avoided. The final route went through JORDAN, over the GOLAN HEIGHTS in SYRIA - and not without some political consequences - to end at SIDON in LEBANON. 

SYRIAN PARLIAMENTARY OBJECTIONS NECESSITATED THE CIA-AIDED 1949 COUP

SYRIAN parliamentary objections necessitated the CIA-aided 1949 coup in order to secure "right of way" over the GOLAN HEIGHTS. The end of pipeline operations were also instigated by sabotage and related problems with the portion passing over the Heights in the climate of political turmoil after the 1967 occupation by ISRAEL. All oil transportation in the western (SYRIAN and LEBANESE) portions of the line ceased in 1976. That portion of the line was evacuated of all crude oil and the installations in LEBANON were handed over to the LEBANESE government in 1983.
Despite these problems, the Trans Arabian pipeline is considered a potential export route for crude oil transport from the PERSIAN GULF region to EUROPE and the UNITED STATES.

An analysis has shown that the transport cost via the Tapline through HAIFA to EUROPE is up to 40 percent lower than by tankers through the SUEZ CANAL.

 

Worthwhile to monitor is why British and USA mainstream media keep up negative reporting on the Syrian issue, despite being supporters of the Arab League observer mission, thus sparking new and controversial theories and assumptions. Cause and Effect!