IRAQ AND IRAN

plot oil revolution in challenge to Saudi Arabia

Iraq is poised to flood the oil market by tripling its capacity to pump crude by 2020 and is collaborating with Iran on strategy in a move that will challenge Saudi Arabia’s grip on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

“We feel the world needs to be assured of fuel for economic growth,” Hussain al-Shahristani, Deputy Prime Minister for Energy in Iraq told oil industry delegates attending a Chatham House Middle East energy conference.

Al Shahristani said on Tuesday that Iraq plans to boost its capacity to produce oil to 9m barrels a day (bpd) by the end of the decade as Baghdad rushes to bolster its economy, which is still shattered by war and internal conflict. Iraq was producing 3m bpd in December, according to the International Energy Agency.

Iraq’s intention to challenge Saudi Arabia’s status as the “swing producer” in the OPEC cartel could see a dramatic fall in oil prices if Baghdad decides to break the group’s quotas and sell more of its crude on the open market.

“It’s very difficult to predict actual world (oil) demand by 2020 because the world economy is unpredictable,” said Mr al-Shahristani.

BRITISH OIL GIANTS BP AND ROYAL DUTCH SHELL ARE ALSO POISED TO BENEFIT FROM IRAQ’S AMBITIOUS PRODUCTION PLANS. BOTH COMPANIES ARE ALREADY MANAGING TWO HUGE OIL FIELDS IN SOUTHERN IRAQ WHICH ARE VITAL IF BAGHDAD IS TO ACHIEVE ITS GOAL.

However, even if Iraq is able to achieve its target of boost production capacity it is unlikely to be able to put in place sufficient pipeline and port infrastructure to export the additional crude.

Iraq’s main export terminal for loading oil tankers at Al Faw near Basra will require billions of pounds worth of improvements in addition to the refurbishment of its pipeline network.

Iraq’s ambitious plan could see it clash increasingly with the regime in Saudi Arabia, which has used its influence in OPEC over the last decade to keep oil prices above $100 a barrel. Saudi itself is now under pressure to boost output to maintain market share. The kingdom pumped 9.8m bpd in December up by about 100,000 barrels from the previous month.

Experts say that attention within OPEC, which pumps 30pc of the world’s crude, could increasingly focus on compliance with more of the group’s members tempted to pump more barrels to protect their share of the market as the cartel grapples with the rise of US shale oil production.

OPEC agreed in early December to renew for six months its 30m bpd output cap for the first half of the year to keep prices above $100. However, quotas have in the past proved difficult for OPEC as a group to enforce without any binding penalties for over-producing. Since its restoration to OPEC following the 2003 Gulf War, Iraq has been excluded from the group’s quota system to allow its economy to recover but pressure is mounting for it to comply this year.

The International Monetary Fund this week warned that Iraq’s weak economy remains vulnerable to fluctuations in oil markets. Crude oil exports account for 93pc of government revenues. The IMF estimated that Baghdad required an average oil price of $106.1 per barrel in 2013 to balance its budget, up from $95 in 2011 because of higher spending.

Despite Mr al-Shahristani’s hopes for boosting Iraq’s energy sector there are severe concerns over security amid fears the country may again be slipping toward a civil war between Sunni and Shia Muslim factions.

In a further challenge to Saudi Arabia, which is mostly closed to international oil companies, Mr al-Shahristani revealed that Baghdad is working with Iran to help it attract investment ahead of the possible lifting of sanctions. Oil companies are understood to be queuing up to win Iranian oil deals.

“Iran has been in touch with us,” said Mr al-Shahristani. “They want to share our contracts model and experience.”

Combined, Iran and Iraq hold greater reserves of oil than Saudi Arabia and the potential with the help of international investment to match its capacity to produce oil, which currently stands at around 12.5m b/d of crude.

Via UK Telegraph 

ARGENTINA AND ISRAEL

Argentina after Israeli fighter planes; concern in London and Brasilia, says defense expert

Argentina is considering the purchase from Israel of 18 multipurpose combat aircraft Kfir Block 60 after negotiations with Spain for 16 Mirage F1 fighter bombers fell through, according to a report from Buenos Aires daily Clarin.

via Mercopress

Apparently Israel's offer has been on the Defense minister Agustin Rossi's desk since some time but only resurfaced sometime back in September following on the frustrated deal with Spain.

Clarin also mentions that news of the negotiations between the Argentine ministry of defense and Israel's Aero-spatial Industry, IAI, which manufactures the Kfir Block 60, caused 'concern' in the British government since it is suspected that Argentina could use the aircraft to intimidate the oil companies operating in Malvinas Islands waters, which are disputed by Argentina.

If the deal effectively is agreed, the first six aircraft would be arriving in Argentina with the 'latest avionics' and 'zero hour' , while the remaining 12 would be assembled in Argentina “in a plant set up and run by Israeli engineers”. “Although the aircraft were designed over forty years ago, the refurbished model comes with a reconditioned US J-79 General Electric made engine, an electronic sweeping radar EL/M-2032 from Elta Systems, an affiliate of IAI”, according to a report in the site Defensa.com.

Kfir (lion cub in Israeli), has been proven successfully in battle and other air forces have them, such as Ecuador, Colombia and Sri Lanka.

Negotiations which allegedly took off last September involve 500 million dollars with the first delivery a year after the deal is signed.

Although the operation is more than double the Spanish offer of 217 million dollars, “the superior equipment and operational conditions of the Israel fighters is indisputable”.

Brazilian journalist Roberto Lopes, who specializes in defense issues was the first to reveal that Israel/Argentina deal negotiations caused concern in the government of PM David Cameron and allegedly representatives from the UK Defense ministry asked their Israel counterparts “for a detailed description of the electronic systems and avionics” of the 18 Kfir.

Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: Interesting to note is that not the neighboring countries but the UK out of all, are concerned about Argentine's intention of purchasing fighter jets.  It seems this is pure political intend, for a sovereign western country is entitled to upgrade its armed forces and does not need to wait for approval from the UK! Pure British arrogance to ask Israel for detailed descriptions of the electronic systems and avionics. On the other hand the entire issue is of no real concern, giving the somewhat frosty relations between the UK and Israel, thus it seems hardly likely  Israel would comply with such request anyway.          

It was Lopes who said that London fears the aircraft could be used to track and intimidate vessels involved in the Malvinas oil and gas industry development.

Oil was first discovered in the Malvinas in 2010, and all is set for extraction to begin sometime beginning 2017/18.

British, US and European oil and support companies are involved in the Malvinas.

Nevertheless Argentina has reacted strongly and tightened controls of vessels and aircraft in the South Atlantic and has threatened companies involved in the Malvinas with legal demands.

Argentina has already sent letters to stock exchanges where these companies are traded and passed legislation which includes heavy fines and prison for oil companies CEOs which are involved in 'illegal' operations in the Argentine Sea.

Lopes also reveals that ”the issue is being monitored since the end of 2013 by Brazil's Itamaraty (foreign ministry) and defense ministry”. Since a couple of years the government of President Cristina Fernandez has been trying to boost the Argentine Air Force that in the last decade has seen its operational number of aircraft contract significantly because of lack of spares, maintenance and obsolescence.

The North Korea Edge

North Korea's Rare Earths Could be Game Changer

A recent geological study indicates North Korea could hold some 216 million tons of rare earths, minerals used in electronics such as smartphones and high definition televisions.

If verified, the discovery would more than double global known sources and be six times the reserves in China, the market leader.

British Islands-based private equity firm SRE Minerals Limited announced the study results in December, along with a 25-year deal to develop the deposits in Jongju, northwest of the capital, Pyongyang.

The joint venture, called Pacific Century Rare Earth Mineral Limited, is with state-owned Korea Natural Resources Trading Corporation. The potential bonanza could offer the isolated and impoverished North a game-changing stake in the rare earths industry.

North Korean rare earths challenge China’s monopoly?

Scott Bruce, an associate of the East-West Center in Hawaii, said the deposits could not only shake China's hold on the market but also improve relations with Japan and South Korea, two of the biggest importers of the minerals.

China's near monopoly on rare earths, 90 percent of the world market, led prices to skyrocket when Tokyo accused Beijing of capping exports because of political tensions. Prices have since dropped to more sustainable levels, but Beijing's control of the market has spurred a search for other sources.

“If North Korea was able to launch this program and develop its own industry,” Bruce said, “it could potentially leverage them to integrate with its neighbors and no longer be the black hole in the center of northeast Asia.”

North Korea's mineral wealth has for years been estimated to be worth trillions of dollars. The Jongju venture could be the first to exploit its rare earths. However, enormous political hurdles stand in the way of the potential benefits.

Foreign firms face steep risks in North Korean ventures

Pyongyang has no formal relations with Tokyo and remains, technically, at war with Seoul. Both countries restrict trade and investment with North Korea because of its frequent provocations and pursuit of nuclear weapons.

North Korea's controlled economy, isolation, and sanctions have left its infrastructure in tatters with poor roads and unreliable energy supplies. Bruce said foreign mining companies would have to factor in those costs, along with the political risk.

“The last company that really went in big in the North was of course South Koreans during the Sunshine Policy,” he said. “And you had KORES, the Korean resource group, that invested heavily in a few joint mineral projects in the north. And, then, when the political relationship between North and South deteriorated,” he continued, “they lost any word of what was happening in those mines.”

As part of the joint venture, Pacific Century will build a rare earths processing plant in Jongju. North Korea's poor working conditions, including forced labor, could subject Pacific Century to rights abuse charges.

Pacific Century has said it is an ethical mining company with multiple procedural controls in place to ensure it adheres to international standards.

Pyongyang more interested in survival than development

Leonid Petrov, a Korean studies researcher at the Australian National Studies University's College of Asia and the Pacific, said Pyongyang has no interest in making the necessary reforms to sustain foreign investment in its economy.

“The two conditions of its survival, the constant crisis and the isolation which are needed for the maintenance of the regime, would be jeopardized,” he said. “Something like that already happened during the ten years of Sunshine Policy when South Korea-North Korea started trading, started cooperating. Some exchange was going on. But soon they realized for South Korea it was too expensive. For North Korea,” he said, “it was too dangerous.”

In an e-mail interview with VOA, Pacific Century's Director of Operations, Louis Schurmann, said the company plans for its North Korean venture to solve the rare earths market problems. However, Petrov argues that Pyongyang would not risk change by further opening its mining sector and would likely continue selling minerals to China to earn foreign currency for the elites.

“I believe that rare earth metals will remain in control by the Chinese government and the Chinese economic clout will continue protecting North Korea both militarily, logistically.” Also, Petrov said, “soft power from China is not going to betray the regime, which is used by China as a buffer state. So, this newly discovered mineral is going to buttress the regime.”

Rare earths seen as helping to bankroll a reunified Korea

The East-West Center’s Bruce said South Korea opposes mining the minerals because they could be a valuable resource to help bankroll a future re-unification of the Korean peninsula.

“The extent to which they're being packaged and sold off now is of great concern to the South,” Bruce said, “because it's effectively taking the economic benefit of re-absorbing the North, if they're able to do that at some point, and selling it off now.”

However, there are signs Pyongyang's policy on selling minerals on the cheap to China could change. Petrov said the December execution of Jang Song Thaek, Kim Jong Un's uncle and second in command, demonstrated disagreement within the leadership on concessions to foreign countries.

“If you look at the list of accusations and charges against Jang Song Thaek,” he said, “you will see that one point was actually addressing the issue of selling natural resources to a foreign country too cheaply.”

Size of rare earth discovery questioned

Other analysts question the estimated size of the deposit. Choi Kyung-soo, president of the North Korea Resource Institute in Seoul, is among the skeptics.

“If you look at what SRE Minerals announced, it seems like North Korea has the largest amount of rare earths in the world,” he said. “But I do not think the amount is that large.” The U.S. Geological Survey, which compiles data on sources of minerals, said there was insufficient information to comment on the significance of the announcement.

SRE acknowledges the rare earth estimates are conceptual and not yet proven. It plans, through its joint venture, to take further samples in April to better assess North Korea's rare earth potential.

By Danial Schearf

via VOA

ARGENTINA

THE TWO WORLDS OF 

BUENOS AIRES: MACRI'S LEGACY OF 

INEQUALITY

Inequality is nothing new in Latin America; the region has long occupied the unenviable position of being considered the most unequal area in the world. However, the human face of inequality is nowhere more apparent than in Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina. Buenos Aires is a study in contrasts: the splendid Libertador Street, punctuated with  art museums, luxury malls, and expensive apartments, stands at points directly across the train tracks from the improvised housing of the villas miserias, or shantytowns. Below Rivadavia Street, as the noted Argentine novelist Jorge Luis Borges put it,  “the South begins,” a land of impoverished suburbs and slums.

Buenos Aires is a maze of overlapping jurisdictions. 

The metro area numbers some 13 million people, nearly 40 percent of the country’s population, but the city’s mayor, Mauricio Macri, presides over a jurisdiction which includes just  3 million residents. The problem has proven too much for Macri, who has demonstrated indifference towards the task of develop a working relationship with either provincial or national governments. Moreover, Macri and his Propuesta Republicana Party (Republican Proposal, PRO) seem solely interested in projects that benefit the affluent, clearly neglecting the issues of poverty alleviation, environmental cleanup, and improvement of substandard housing. The people of Buenos Aires deserve better. Only with immediate and decisive action can  improvement come for the lived experience of the city’s poor.

Background Information: 

ARGENTINE’S "INVISIBLE OPPOSITION", CONSISTING OF SELF - SEEKING ONE MAN SHOWS, MANIPULATED BY LOCAL MEDIA GIANT TO OPPOSE THE GOVERNMENT

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/argentina-country-without-visible.html

MEDIA BIAS IN ARGENTINA

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/03/food-for-thought.html

MAIN STREAM MEDIA INFLUENCE IN ARGENTINA

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2011/10/impartiality.html

Figure 1: Average incomes in Districts of Buenos Aires (Monthly, in Argentine Pesos, with darker colors representing higher incomes)
Source: Buenos Aires City Government – http://www.ssplan.buenosaires.gov.ar/MODELO%20TERRITORIAL/WEB/modelo_territorial.html

The lines of inequality are starkly delineated in the city,  following the North (rich) and South (poor) gradient (see Figure 1). Levels of income disparity in Buenos Aires have grown steadily, along with a 35 percent jump in poverty in the Greater Buenos Aires area, over a 16 year period. Poverty rates rose from 12.7 percent in 1986 to 49.7 percent of the population in 2002, just after Argentina’s economic crisis, according to government statistics. U.N. Habitat estimated the city’s Gini coefficient, a measure of inequality with 0 being total equality, everyone with the same income, and 1.0 being perfect inequality, one person has all the income, at .52 in 2005. This measure, compared to Quito’s .49 and London’s .34, places Buenos Aires  in the category  “among the most unequal in the world” according to the United Nations. The wealth of the highest decile of the population of the city is equal to 28.3 times that of the poorest. Another way of capturing this inequality is to look at city  real estate prices. The cost of one square meter of land in a rich neighborhood is 116 percent higher than a meter in a poor one.  As many as 10 percent of the city’s residents live in informal and improvised housing, lack access to public services, and live in crime-riddled communities. These problems reflect dire circumstances, but the city’s government has many of the necessary tools to successfully address them.

Background Information: 

ARGENTINA, BARELY 30 YEARS OF DEMOCRACY, A YOUNG NATION TRYING TO FIND ITS BEARING 

 http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/11/argentine-evolution.html

Overlapping Jurisdictions

Buenos Aires has been an autonomous region since 1996, when the national government gave up its control over the appointment of the city’s mayor. Today the Buenos Aires mayor is regarded as the third most important political position in the country, after the president and the governor of Buenos Aires province. Macri, scion of a wealthy family and former manager of the popular Boca Juniors soccer club, took office in 2007 after an effective electoral campaign that portrayed him as “business friendly”. The position of mayor is a powerful one, as shown by Figure 2, affording Macri a great deal of independence.

Figure 2: From C40 Cities. Illustrates Macri’s government’s power
Source: C40 Cities – Climate Leadership Group – http://c40.org/c40cities/buenos-aires

Macri is also  the country’s main opposition leader, and this status has figured into his drive to keep the city of Buenos Aires fiercely autonomous. 

Macri’s policies have moved closer and closer to practices of “city diplomacy,” in which cities, as opposed to central governments, engage in international diplomacy. Scholar Roger Van der Plujim notes that “[i]n instances where local interests are very much represented by central governments, the perceived need by cities to engage in city diplomacy is more limited than in those instances where local interests are less represented.” Essentially, if city leaders do not feel that their interests are represented at the national level, they increasingly have the power and inclination to seek support internationally. On September 17, at an address at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C., Carlos Pirovano, Economic Development Advisor to Mayor Macri, noted that his administration does not even hold meetings with the country’s central government, lead by Christina Fernández de Kirchner, nor with the provincial authorities of Governor Daniel Scioli. Clearly, the local interests of Buenos Aires are not represented at the national level. Following the framework of Van der Plujim, city diplomacy would then become much more important for Buenos Aires, which must look beyond the national government for diplomatic support. Pirovano’s visit to the United States indicates that Macri’s city government has begun to do just that.

Background Information: 

ARGENTINA COULD RELAPSE INTO RECESSION BY 2014

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-future-of-argentina.html

These steps are allowing the Buenos Aires city government to set its own terms without having to negotiate with a complicated set of national actors. Macri has the institutional and diplomatic power as mayor to enact sweeping changes on addressing poverty issues in the city. However, he has made neither just nor efficient use of the power at his disposal, and has failed to address the  problems the city faces.

Fundamentally, Macri has spent his time and the city government’s funds on urban planning projects that benefit already well-to-do Argentines. As William Kinney noted in his piece, “COHA Spotlights CSIS Roundtable Discussion with Macri’s Economic Advisor” for the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Macri’s strategy for urban development has revolved around designating different “districts” within the city for a certain categories of economic activity. The artistic neighborhood of Palermo, for instance, was designated as a “film district,” with tax and infrastructure incentives for further development of the film industry. Carlos Pirovano highlighted the importance of these initiatives, especially in the southern neighborhood of Parque Patricios, which was designated as a “technology district.” This neighborhood, which is one of the city’s poorest, has seen a 200 hectare development of office buildings and the growth of technology sectors, with 158 new businesses moving into the zone.  Pirovano also noted that increased security in Parque Patricios had led to reduced use of “paco” (crack cocaine) in the area.

While these are worthy enough projects, the jobs created are largely destined for well-educated middle and upper-class Argentines, not those who live in the neighborhood, severely limiting any poverty-alleviation impact from these measures. Indeed, many of the development districts, like the film district in Palermo, are located in already affluent areas of the city. In addition, this emphasis on the development of individual districts has corresponded with a cutback in funds available for other important projects.

The proposed 2014 city budget indicates the lowest spending on social housing in the last decade, a 19 percent reduction from last year and part of a trend of declining funds for those living in improvised and informal housing. 

This budget received harsh criticism from Daniel Filmus, senator for the ruling Frente Para la Victoria (Front for Victory, FPV) party, who charged that the measure could only result in “lowering salaries, lowering social spending, and increasing debt.” Meanwhile, the budget for the city’s Ministry of Social Development will also be reduced by $20 million USD for next year. These cuts have been put into place despite the fact that it is estimated that 350,000 people in the city are living in a situation of “housing emergency.” Educational organizations in the city, like Igualdad Educativa (Education Equality), have also criticized the 2013 budget’s emphasis on subsidies for private schools. 

The sums destined for private schools exceeded the funds allocated to the Subcommittee for Education Equality, an organization charged with increasing inclusion and equality in public education in Buenos Aires, indicating a powerfully regressive approach to education.

Macri is failing in other ways. Lamentably, his  government has dragged its feet on the logistics of a cleanup of the Matanza -Riachuelo River along Buenos Aires’ southern border. The site is infamous,  recently mentioned on Time Magazine’s list of 10 most polluted places. 

A dumping ground for tanneries and other industrial sites, the Riachuelo is heavily contaminated with zinc, lead, copper, nickel, and chromium. Many of the two million people who live along its banks rely on the river for their drinking water, putting their health in jeopardy. While cleanup efforts have begun with an edict from the country’s Supreme Court and with the help of $840 million USD from the World Bank, efforts to relocate more than 2,400 families away from unsafe living conditions on the banks have been stalled by  bureaucratic infighting. Furthermore, a recent report by Acumar, a local government agency, noted the reappearance on the banks of more than 70 percent of the waste that previously had been cleaned from the river’s banks. Finally, the city has not yet addressed the sad fact that there are only 35 inspectors for the more than 16,000 companies located along the river, slowing the pace of clean-up work. The effort could last nine more years and the total cost could be in the billions of dollars, but, as the effects will be felt by only the city’s poorest, cleanup has yet to become a key priority for Macri’s PRO party. These dereliction's of duty on the part of the PRO in Buenos Aires take on grander significance when their aspirations toward national office are taken into account.

Macri’s Political Future

Background Information:

CRIME AND CORRUPTION ARE TWO OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST MULTINATIONAL INDUSTRIES

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/crime-corruption-and-political-system.html

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/crime-corruption-and-political-system_7.html

 “En todo estás vos”

Macri’s PRO is currently the fourth-largest political party in Argentina, after Peronism, the social liberalism of the Unión Cívica Radical party, and the socialist Frente Amplio Progresista party. The PRO party’s political victories in Buenos Aires demonstrate that Macri has caught the imaginations of Argentina’s urban elite. The trouble is, however, that the mayor of Buenos Aires is clearly more concerned with image and “business-friendliness” than with the real needs of his poorest constituents. The city’s website is dedicated to burnishing Macri’s self image,  presenting a sunny image of the city where on every street corner, happy Buenos Aires residents bask under banners declaring  “En todo estás vos” (you are in the middle of everything). Perhaps Macri believes this, perhaps he thinks that the benefits of his urban planning projects will “trickle down” to the city’s poor, but up to this point, it does not appear to be working. At rallies and other events, youth from the city of Buenos Aires chant “Macri, basura, se fue la dictadura” (Macri, you’re trash, the dictatorship is gone). If Macri has future political aspirations, as he apparently does, he must learn to incorporate the needs of those outside his rosy bubble of “modernity.”

By Thomas Abbot via Eurasia Review

MIDDLE EAST

The Volatile Middle East; Oil and Turmoil

In recent history the Middle East has always been an area of turmoil, where wars came and went and conflicts were interrupted by long periods of stability and progress. That, regretfully, no longer seems to be the case.

Today, the turmoil remains and the stability that interjected itself between times of conflict and that allowed people in this region to overcome the difficulties of political instability and open warfare is becoming something of a rarity.

What is becoming apparent however is that with the end of the Cold War countries that previously played a major role in the region – Egypt, Syria and Iraq – are today pre-occupied by internal strife that is keeping them tied down in their home patch. And those that have not experienced the humility of foreign occupation are looking over the castle walls to make sure no US Marines and soldiers are about to come calling, as the Saudis would have liked the US to do in Syria.

And on the reverse side of the coin, countries that previously played little or no vital role in the region, or kept a very low and discreet profile, like Saudi Arabia, are becoming more vociferous, more brazen and more active.

Another very active country is tiny Qatar, whose imprint on the Middle East and the world is far larger than the country itself thanks to its international satellite television network, al-Jazeera, a label that has become a household word in Europe, the Middle East and now in North America.

Using their oil revenues both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have invested tens of millions of dollars to promote, supply and sustain anti-government forces in Syria, hoping to overthrow the regime of President Bashar Assad. Indeed, Saudi Arabia has removed the gloves and is no longer trying to be diplomatic or discreet. It’s time for the big guns, so to speak.

Saudi Arabia was banking on the United States who had in the past stepped up to the plate to help its Saudi friends is not so eager to send its men and women off to fight and die for Saudi royalty.

While there is little doubt that a regime as brutal as the one in place in Damascus should not remain in power, what is questionable is whether Saudi Arabia’s policy is a smart one and whether it can backfire and eventually spread the conflict from the Levant to the oil-rich Gulf region, a region  that until now has been largely spared the type of violence seen in the Levant.

One quasi certainty is that if the violence continues unchecked as it has been in Syria, it is only a matter of time before it spreads. The entire region is sitting on a case of high explosives positioned on the edge of a dangerous precipice with a lit match inches away from the fuse.

The three largest countries in the region, Egypt, Syria and Iraq, traditionally the most influential in the region, are each facing grave internal strife.  Egypt is in a state of utter confusion, with a transition government running the country while no one really knows what the future holds. In the past Egypt was looked up to by other Arab countries. Syria, the other great center of political gravity in the Arab world is now in its third year of a bloody war that has left the country completely devastated.

And Iraq of course, is now falling into greater mayhem as al-Qaida sympathizers are challenging the government in Baghdad.

Lebanon, who had seen a brief period of some sort of pretended stability is now once again finding itself on the verge of its 19 year civil war reigniting.

Just look at the map: Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia are all in very precarious states. Jordan and Palestine, although quiet for now have a large undercurrent of instability brewing that may explode at a moment’s notice.

In Iraq, new clashes erupted Tuesday in the western part of the country between local tribesmen and al-Qaida militants who were trying to enter the city of Ramadi, forcing residents to blow up one of the bridges to slow down the rebel advance.

The entire Middle East is on the verge of unprecedented turmoil with no end in sight. Indeed, the frightening thought is what happens to the global economy if the fires of the Levant reach the oil fields of the Gulf?

By. Claude Salhani via Oilprice

The Franco-German brigade will be initiated in Mali

Source: l’Opinon/Secret Defense

We begin to see a little more clearly what it means to be the revival of the Franco-German defense, announced by President Hollande during his press conference on January 14. German soldiers of the Franco-German Brigade (BFA) and should soon join Mali to serve in the EUTM-Mali , the EU mission training Malian army. Certainly the Germans involved since the launch of the mission , including the training of engineers and medical support. In addition, Germany provides air support for the UN force (Minusma) from Senegal.

However, the Berlin decision to commit troops to the BFA is symbolic, especially since their mission could be extended in particular missions EUTM-Mali “force protection” that Germany had refused Last year, in a context of much tighter security. Two units of the BFA are concerned, the 292nd Jägerbataillon Donaueschingen and 295th Artilleriebataillon of Immendigen, as indicated by the Süddeutsche Zeitung .

The French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who goes to Mali on Sunday and Monday, is expected to discuss the matter with his new German counterpart, Ursula von der Leyen, during a dinner Monday evening in Paris.

The final decision should be announced Feb. 19 at the Board of Franco-German Ministers, with the participation of François Hollande and Angela Merkel. This summit could ausi set in motion a joint action for a European mission in CAR, humanitarian and security matters. The Germany now seems ready to provide air power to support the action of the international community in Central Africa.

At the Elysee, it welcomes the new Franco-German course, reflected arrival at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD), more European and closer to Laurent Fabius his Liberal predecessor Guido Westerwelle. A Defence, Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) is also very pro-European. These appointments are important because in Germany the ministers, including Foreign Affairs and Defence, are much more independent of the Chancellor than are their French counterparts vis-à-vis de l’Elysée.

In recent months, the Franco-German defense were not looking good dissolution of the last French regiment in Germany (110th RI), refusal of Germany to finance Sangaris operation in Central and little phrase murders of outgoing Minister of Defence .

Remains to be seen how things will materialize on the ground. And, moreover, how to place the next Franco-British summit on 31 January. Indeed, for more than three years with the Lancaster House agreements, France relied primarily on the military alliance with the United Kingdom. A topic that François Hollande has not even mentioned, nor during his press conference or during greetings to the diplomatic corps and armies. Assists do you change a priority in secret ally?

GERMANY AND FRANCE

GERMAN AND FRENCH INTERESTS IN AFRICA

REPERCUSSIONS OF GERMANY’S INTERESTS IN AFRICA

GERMANY’S effort to making a show of military force in AFRICA are aimed not just at crisis resolution in conflict areas but also at promoting and marketing GERMAN weaponry. However, this effort is not independent from the FRENCH rivalry factor.

When GERMANY achieved reunification in the 1990s, it began trying to play a more active role in the international arena.GERMANY’S interest in AFRICA has grown in recent years, in line with the continent’s increasing geo-economic and geopolitical importance. GERMANY’S participation in the international peace force in AFGHANISTAN and the gradual GERMAN intervention in the crises in the Middle East and the Horn of AFRICA were signals of the transformation of GERMAN foreign policy. In the same way, it may be said that with the changes that came with the Arab Spring, GERMAN moves to assume a larger role in North AFRICA have gained speed. On this point, answers need to be found for some basic questions such as “what are the repercussions of GERMANY’S interest in AFRICA”, “how are the transformations in the Arab world affecting GERMANY’S policies in AFRICA?”, and “what impact will this interest have on relations with other countries such as FRANCE?”

Background Information:

GERMANY’S BOLD NEW COUNTERINSURGENCY IDEAS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/05/germany-moving-center-stage-in.html

DEUTSCHLANDS NEU DEFINIERTE GEOPOLITISCHE DOKTRINEN

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/05/deutschlands-neue-geopolitische.html

THE GENERAL FRAMEWORK OF GERMAN - AFRICAN RELATIONS

After the breakup of the SOVIET UNION, on the grounds of EUROPEAN UNION integration, GERMANY based its AFRICA policy on those of the EU. “EUROPE’S Join Development Vision 2005” and “The EUROPE- AFRICA Strategy 2007” offer examples of this. Further GERMANY proceeded with its interest in AFRICA through international organizations by giving support, for example, to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and peace-keeping forces attached to the UN.

It also made a contribution to the special AFRICA programs of the G8 and G20 and expanded its AFRICA policy to take in issues like the crises and disputes there, the fight against illegal migration and human trafficking, climate change, economic development, and trade relations. On the other hand, it also tried to institutionalize its relations with the continent within a framework of political partnership and technical cooperation following a policy independent of its EUROPEAN partners.

On issues like the war on terror, supporting democratization, the strengthening of police forces, and issues like education, the judiciary, and the military, it joined the countries supporting AFRICAN countries at the bilateral level. At the multilateral relations level, it strove to develop relations with AFRICAN regional organizations, (e.g., the Economic Community of West AFRICAN States and the East AFRICAN Community.)

THE SECURITY AND STRATEGIC DIMENSION OF GERMANY’S PRESENCE IN AFRICA

The basic turning point in GERMANY’S AFRICA policy was the 11 September terror attacks. After this point GERMANY began to make itself felt in AFRICA as it had never before done. But it is noteworthy that this turning point began in the Horn of Africa. GERMANY signed a military agreement with Djibouti that gave German forces the right to make use of Djibouti’s harbors and airfields. The agreement allows over 1,200 German naval troops to do surveillance along the East coasts, showing a presence in a strategic region connecting the Mediterranean to AFRICA. The agreement is also important as it is the first security agreement which GERMANY has signed with an Arab or AFRICA State since the end of the Second World War.

At the same time, since 2004 GERMANY has begun to have a presence, through the support it gives to UN peace-keeping forces, in many countries with which it has created links in AFRICA, including LIBERIA, Ivory COAST, MOROCCO, the DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO, SUDAN, CHAD, the CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC, and SOMALIA.  

Early in 2008 GERMANY took part in anti-piracy operations coordinated by NATO within the framework of Operation Atlanta  in the Gulf of Aden opposite the SOMALI coast. In 2013, when the crisis erupted in northern MALI, GERMANY played an important role, sending 330 soldiers to train the MALIAN security forces and give support to the FRENCH army.

GERMANY’S efforts at making a show of military force in AFRICA are aimed not just at crisis resolution in the areas of conflict but also at promoting and marketing GERMAN weaponry. The situation was made plain during Angela Merkel’s visit to AFRICA in 2011. GERMANY raised the issue of the need for ANGOLA to protect its shores and modernize its army following the rise in its oil revenues and propose selling warships. Along with this, it signed an agreement to deliver military frigates to ALGERIA following tension between ALGERIA and MOROCCO which pushed up the value of military supplies in North AFRICA.

THE ARAB SPRING AND THE ‘GERMAN SPRING’ IN NORTH AFRICA

It may be said that the Arab Spring provided GERMANY with major opportunities to strengthen its role in North AFRICA. But according to an article by GERMAN Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle published on 13 January 2012, there are three important risks which might threaten the Arab Spring countries: the first of these risks is the return of the deposed totalitarian regimes; the second is economic failure which could cause social tensions; the third is the possibility that extremist religious movements will grow and threaten democracy. In the face of these risks GERMANY has sent groups known as transformation teams to the region and appointed a special representative to the Arab world inside the GERMAN Foreign Ministry.

At the same time it is apparent that GERMANY has concentrated on TUNISIA and EGYPT and has signed agreements with both countries and is supporting them on matters like democracy, employment, and finance. It would be insufficient to interpret these initiatives simply in terms of the need GERMANY feels to support the Arab Spring countries. For they are at the same time also attempts to protect and expand GERMANY’S interests in North AFRICA. It may be said that the decision to halt the use of nuclear energy has been one of the factors that has determined GERMANY’S North AFRICA policy. At this moment GERMANY is trying, by means of a combination of solar and wind-powered plants in North AFRICA  and the Middle East, to make renewable energy meet 20% of EUROPE’S total energy needs by 2050.

FRANCO-GERMAN COMPETITION IN NORTH AFRICA

GERMAN foreign policy towards AFRICA is not independent from its rivalry with FRANCE. Since the signing of the treaty with Djibouti, Paris has grown more anxious in the face of the growing GERMAN influence in AFRICA. Indeed, Djibouti is one of the traditional cornerstones of FRENCH policy towards AFRICA and the INDIAN Ocean. When the rivalry between GERMANY and FRANCE began at the time of the events of the Arab Spring in LIBYA, GERMANY stood out by abstaining from the vote over UN Security Council Resolution 1973 about carrying out a military intervention. What’s more, at the time when it appeared likely that FRANCE would have a monopoly in the religion, GERMAN newspapers and former officials tried to assume an important role in the EUROPEAN Mission, called EUBAM (the European External Action Service), to protect LIBYA’S borders.

As for the political level, GERMANY has used its influence to prevent the political balance in the region from being upset, in particular after the killing of some opposition figures in TUNISIA. GERMAN and FRENCH policies appear to be in agreement over the development of TUNISIA’S political life. On the other hand, the Nahda Government in TUNISIA is conscious of this rivalry and has tried to bolster its own interests by opening a wider field to GERMAN investments and interests. Whereas up to the overthrow of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, TUNISIA was regarded as FRANCE’S main ally. 

Finally, GERMANY has also taken steps to curb the FRANCE’S influence outside the countries of the Arab Spring. The “Rabat Declaration” which GERMANY signed with MOROCCO to foster cooperation in various fields is one small instance of this.              

Source: Turkish Weekly

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