AN
EXTENDED WAR COMING TO LIBYA?
By Salman Rafi via Asia times
The so-called global
‘anti-terror’ front seems to be expanding its tentacles as leaders of the ‘free
world’ plan to end the terrorist threat posed by the ISLAMIC STATE (IS). Thanks
to their ‘wise’ policy of funding proxy groups, IS is reported to have been
‘quite successful’ in capturing a lot of territory rich in oil in LIBYA.
Such groups, whether in LIBYA or
in the MIDDLE EAST, owe their existence as well as financial and fighting
strength (whatever they have) to “certain powers” that aim at establishing a
regime of domination, if not unchallenged hegemony, on global
political-economy. Hence, the saga of “oil wars” and “energy pipeline
politics”– key pillars of this regime of domination.
Background Information: LIBYA’S
NATURAL RESOURCES
‘Oil’ continues to be the cause
of many wars being fought today and also the most important source of funding
them. Perhaps, an allusion to the fast decreasing financial ability of the
“great powers” to fund these wars through ‘shadow money.’ That is to say, if
terrorist groups like IS can conveniently extract oil and also sell it in the
market, they do not particularly need secret financial assistance from their
mentors. Hence, IS’ “oil drive” in SYRIA as well as LIBYA.
WHAT’S
BEHIND THE CURRENT DECLINE IN OIL PRICES?
The
question these days however is, if with oil prices at an all-time low, one
would imagine that IS should also feel loss in revenues from illegal oil trade.
That is if IS is
really funding its operations solely through oil trade. On the other hand one could ask if the
current decline in oil prices is a deliberate strategy initiated by powerful international
entities to severely hamper IS expansion and operations, by making IS run out
of its main source of income and thereby eradicate IS by means of “economic
warfare” instead of airstrikes.
But given the fact that IS is also a lucrative
business for the international weapons industry (and car industry (Toyota), it
seems), one has to be cautious with any assumptions regarding the decimation of
IS, especially if the persisting allegations that IS is the creation of Western entities such as the CIA, are true.
Comment
by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring.
Were the media reports (and some
official statements) to be believed, the IS has already established its control
over more than 240 kilometers of LIBYAN coastline. The number of IS militants
in the area is estimated to exceed 5,000 and among them, besides LIBYANS, are
former citizens of various ARAB, AFRICAN and EUROPEAN states.
LIBYA
– A REGROUPING PLACE FOR IS?
Hence, the December 1, 2015 warning
by the UN observers that Libya is turning into a key stronghold of IS
–implying, indirectly though, that the IS has found a good hiding place to
regroup and re-organize itself in LIBYA after facing mounted bombing from RUSSIAN
side and reasonably successful ground operations by the SYRIAN Army in SYRIA.
RUSSIA’S specific targeting of
IS’ oil tankers in SYRIA certainly has done damage to the groups’ financial
strength, prompting them to intensify attacks in LIBYA to capture oil
reservoirs. This goal is to be achieved by getting hold of LIBYAN ports,
strategically important roads, intersections, and the better part of LIBYA’S
oil terminals to the south of AJDABIYA.
Background Information: REGROUPING
OF IS
Islamists’ assault on the port of
ES SIDER in January leading to a prolonged fire fight with the defense units
entrusted with its security reveals they have been actively pursuing this goal.
The estimated income one can get from LIBYA’S oil amounts to a whopping $100
billion a year. (That figure might not be correct for 2016 since the oil price seems to
be plunging further every month)
On January 12, some other attacks
were reported. IS tried to seize export terminals in the so-called “oil
crescent” of northern LIBYA, killing 56 people in two suicide bombings in ZLITEN
and RAS LANOUF, east of TRIPOLI.
“On Sunday night, the guards
intercepted three boats trying to enter the oil port of ZUEITINA,” said ALI
AL-HASSI, spokesman for the guards protecting oil facilities for LIBYA’S
“recognised government.”
IS fighters have stepped up their
attacks on LIBYA’S oil facilities since the country’s two major political
factions agreed last month to a UN-negotiated deal aimed at creating a unity
government by mid-January. A national unity government backed by loyal security
forces could take back control of the country’s oil facilities. In this
context, IS not only seems to be aiming at controlling LIBYA’S oil for itself
but also disrupting its supply to put the would-be unity government in
considerable financial jeopardy as soon as it comes into existence.
Background Information: IS
IN LIBYA
By
creating such chaos in LIBYA, IS is planning to use it as a base camp to
re-group, re-organize itself financially and militarily to extend its
operations not only in AFRICA but also in the EUROPEAN continent. Perhaps, a
big reason for the ‘WEST’ to worry about.
Background Information: THREAT
FOR EUROPE
DEVASTATING
RESULT OF 2011 WESTERN MILITARY INTERVENTION IN LIBYA
Here is how LIBYA can boost the
groups’ military capacity. Since the beginning of crisis in LIBYA in 2011, the
country has turned into a haven for weapons suppliers/smugglers. Apart from it,
the destruction of the LIBYAN state as a direct result of Western military
intervention in 2011 also marked the uncontrolled spread of weapon supplies in
the country and along its borders. As a result, the IS was able to take control
of weapons supplies destined to government militias in TRIPOLI.
Background Information: 2011
MILITARY INTERVENTION
While some may tend to disagree
or even deny that IS is gaining easy access to oil and weapons in LIBYA, it can
hardly be denied that LIBYA is fast turning into IS’ new ‘international
capital.’
Comment
by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring
PAYBACK
TIME FOR BEING LEFT OUT OF THE LIBYAN EQUATION
RUSSIA'S
REVENGE FOR LIBYA
As mentioned numerous times,
RUSSIA and CHINA felt that they were left out of the equation regarding the
LIBYAN operation instigated by the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN. CHINA and RUSSIA
invested heavily in LIBYA prior to the toppling of the LIBYAN regime, only to
find out that they were kept completely out of the picture regarding the true
intentions the Western coalition force had in mind with LIBYA once the regime
was removed and the airstrikes sanctioned by the UN Security Council. CHINA and
RUSSIA were lured into voting for the intervention without being told about the
true intentions of the Western coalition, namely tap the oil reserves of LIBYA.
Subsequently RUSSIA and CHINA
learned their lesson and thus would not make the same mistake regarding SYRIA,
permitting LIBYAN style intervention by WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition
forces. No matter that SYRIA lacks oil reserves or other natural resources
worth fighting over, their veto was more of a symbolic gesture telling WESTERN
and GULF STATES coalition forces: that’s how far you can go this time around,
but no further.
Further we wrote in 2013:
ENERGY
DEALS RUSSIA AND CHINA INKED WITH MUAMMAR QADDAFI PRIOR TO WESTERN MILITARY
INTERVENTION
According
to some analysts this instability could also be triggered deliberately by
certain foreign entities who invested heavily in LIBYA’S oil and fossil
extraction prior to the military intervention in LIBYA. When coalition forces
decided to intervene in LIBYA they did not consider the consequences such
intervention would have on the geopolitical landscape.
With
the aim to gain control over LIBYA’S oil reserves WESTERN coalition forces
thought they could outwit CHINA and RUSSIA who also invested heavily in LIBYA’S
lucrative oil industry. Lured into voting in favor of the UN resolution which
in the end paved the way for Military Intervention in LIBYA, RUSSIA and CHINA
expected to receive their fair slice of the “energy cake” once the intervention
was concluded, instead they were left out of the equation, losing millions of
dollars of investments in LIBYA, for all energy deals RUSSIA and CHINA inked
with Muammar Qaddafi prior to the military intervention suddenly became void,
leaving the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN the sole benefiters of the entire
operation.
Note from the Editor:
Above paragraphs were written by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring in June
2012 and October 2013 and included into this analysis
HENCE,
THE NEED FOR A FRESH NATO INTERVENTION.
The possibility of a NATO
military operation in LIBYA has been confirmed by a LIBYAN representative in
the UNITED NATIONS. According to him, four NATO countries (the UNITED STATES,
ITALY, FRANCE and the UNITED KINGDOM) are prepared to launch air strikes
against IS strongholds in LIBYA, which would be later supported by ground
troops, which, in turn, should establish control over the territories occupied
by IS.
Although it looks simple enough,
it is not so, however. That a full scale NATO intervention has not taken place
yet is not simply due to any fictional strategic problem. The WEST, as it
stands, is waiting for the eventual establishment of the so-called
(western-backed) ‘Unity Government’ in LIBYA — a government that would then
‘invite’ NATO to intervene, making things for NATO countries much easier,
especially compared with the sort of troubles they had to face with regard to
getting legal authorization for intervening in SYRIA. So much for the WEST’S
craving for a “legitimate” intervention! (Since last week this western – backed government
has been formed and sworn in.)
According to some credible
sources, the P3+5 will now seek a UN Security Council resolution to authorise
intervention in LIBYA to “train” the local police, army and coastguard. Special
Forces from BRITAIN, FRANCE and the US will also conduct counter-terrorism
operations against the LIBYAN branch of IS and other Islamist groups.
As part of the military
operations, AMERICAN and FRENCH air strikes will be required, with BRITISH jets
unlikely to participate because of the commitment to fight IS in IRAQ (and now
is SYRIA too), a WHITEHALL source was reported to have stated.
Background Information: USA
AND LIBYA
An extended war is, therefore, most
certainly coming to LIBYA. The question is not ‘if’ but ‘when’ it will come. As
reports indicate, it will be soon.
However, the important question
that must be raised at this stage is how a fresh NATO intervention in LIBYA can
contribute to “peace” when such an intervention back in 2011 is the very reason
for today’s chaos? Will NATO’s fresh intervention be more “humanitarian” this
time? And last but not least, will RUSSIA and CHINA be left out of the equation
once again?
Written by Salman Rafi Sheikh,
who is a freelance journalist and research analyst of international relations
and Pakistan affairs, via Asian Times
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