ENERGY
IS THE REASON EUROPE IS STILL BACKING ERDOGAN
A lot of people in EUROPE are
wondering why political leaders on the continent seem to be ready to agree with
whatever TURKISH President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN says, and do anything he
demands. Many resent ERDOGAN’S hand-twisting approach to the migrant crisis and
worry about TURKEY turning into a dictatorship, plain and simple.
Now, the attempted coup by the TURKISH
military has become the latest event to highlight TURKEY’S major role in the global energy market and the implications of
any political shakeup in the country for this same market.
The BOSPHORUS is where around 3
percent of daily global crude oil shipments pass, or some 3 million barrels.
This may not be a lot in percentage terms, but for EUROPE it accounts for well
over a quarter of its total crude oil imports. EUROPE imported 1.559 billion
barrels from the former SOVIET UNION last year, or an average of 4 million
barrels daily, according to EUROPEAN Commission figures.
TURKEY
- A MAJOR HUB FOR OIL AND GAS COMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA
Besides the BOSPHORUS, TURKEY is also home to two pipelines for
CASPIAN and IRAQI crude, as well as the Southern Gas Corridor, which should
provide EUROPE with an alternative source of natural gas in hopes of
undermining the leading position of RUSSIA’S Gazprom on the EUROPEAN market.
There is also the CEYHAN port, TURKEY’S
main crude export terminal. This is where the two pipelines from AZERBAIJAN and
IRAQ end up, and this is also allegedly where a lot of ISIS oil ends up. In
short, TURKEY is already a major hub for oil and gas coming from the MIDDLE
EAST and CENTRAL ASIA, and its importance in this respect will only grow as new
projects—especially gas projects—come online.
Then there is the SYRIAN war, and TURKEY’S vested interest in it in light of
plans for a pipeline that would carry gas from QATAR to TURKEY, and from there, on to EUROPE.
This pipeline would serve the geopolitical interests of SAUDI ARABIA, helping
it to get the upper hand over IRAN, which, now that most of the economic
sanctions against it have been lifted, is eager to return to the global energy
market. It would also, some would argue, serve U.S. geopolitical interests by
once again undermining RUSSIA’S dominance as gas supplier to the EUROPEAN
continent.
IRAN-IRAQ:
PIPELINE TO SYRIA UPS ANTE IN PROXY WAR WITH QATAR
IRAQ’S
agreement to allow IRAN to build a pipeline through its territory and on to
SYRIA is in direct competition with QATAR’S similar designs for a SYRIA
pipeline that would connect to TURKEY. This pipeline is another proxy in the
SYRIAN conflict theater and Iran’s response to its loss of ground here. It is
also a sign of IRAN’S growing foothold in IRAQ. QATAR will respond in kind.
The
IRAQI Cabinet green lighted IRAN’S $10 billion pipeline project, which will
supply gas from the South Pars field (which is the largest in the world, and
which, as mentioned above, it shares with QATAR) to SYRIA and beyond to other
export markets. There is talk of extending the pipeline to LEBANON.
The
first part of the pipeline—some 225 kilometers—through IRAQ will reportedly be
completed in June 2013. The pipeline will connect the southern IRANIAN port of
Assolouyeh to IRAQ and then to SYRIA—for now. It will have a 110 million cubic
meter/day capacity. The plan is to give IRAQ 20 million cubic meters/day of
IRANIAN gas for its power plants, with 20-25 million cubic meters/day going to
SYRIA. Source: http://news.az/articles/iran/41175
TURKEYS
AND EUROPE’S GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS ARE LARGELY OVERLAPPING
These geopolitical interests
largely overlap with EUROPEAN ones. The EUROPEAN UNION (EU) has made it
abundantly clear that it wants a variety of energy supply sources. Natural gas is especially important as a
cleaner and cheaper alternative to crude. Europe will need more gas in the
years to come, and it doesn’t want it to come from RUSSIA—or at least not so
much of it.
This is why EUROPE is tip-toeing
around ERDOGAN; and this is why EUROPEAN leaders seem to dance to any tune ANKARA’S
boss plays. That’s also why EUROPEAN leaders were not too enthusiastic when the
attempted coup failed, despite official declarations in support of ERDOGAN’S
government.
ERDOGAN
- THE NEW MASTER OF THE EUROPEAN GAS TAP
They did have enough dignity left
to warn him to watch himself when dealing with the coup plotters; yet one
cannot help but ask: what is EUROPE going to do if ERDOGAN decides to
re-introduce the death penalty, especially for them? What is it going to do if
he uses the coup to further curb civil rights and cement himself at the helm?
Refuse to admit TURKEY into the EUROPEAN UNION? Not a big deal as far as ERDOGAN and his vision of a new imperial
TURKEY that dominates the region are concerned.
ERDOGAN will in all likelihood be
the new master of the EUROPEAN gas tap. It’s ironic how democratic EUROPE seems
to be forever dependent on dictators for its energy, at least until it goes
fully renewable, which is not going to happen any time soon.
By Irina Slav via Oilprice.com
Background Information: Click on title to read entire report
Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote in January 2012:
REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL
PIPELINE?
