TURKEY AND THE "COUP"

ERDOĞAN’S COUP: PURGING DOMESTIC CRITICS, GAINING EXTERNAL ALLIES

 “President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN prepared a list of targets for arrest even before the coup (sic) was launched”, EUROPEAN Commission official on TURKEY (quoted in FT, 7/19/2016).

THE COUP IN TURKEY WAS MADE TO ORDER.

A group of military officers and police officials were set-up to seize power by senior intelligence operatives in the ERDOĞAN regime. They were allowed to drop a few bombs, seize bridges and buildings before they were encircled, rounded-up and arrested using a list of targets for arrest prepared even before the so-called coup. In the midst of this fake coup, the ‘vacationing’ ERDOĞAN flies into ISTANBUL unharmed, of course, because his vacation resort was bombed after he had left. He seizes the mass media, denounces the coup, rouses the Muslim masses and sets about on a mass purge of TURKISH society, concentrating on the civil service, teachers and administrators, the military, the courts and judges. Indeed every institution capable of independent action or reputedly critical of ERDOĞAN is closed. After a week over 60,000 people had been purged.

Why did ERDOĞAN purge TURKISH society?

What policies will follow ERDOĞAN’S power grab?

PRELUDE TO THE COUP

Over the past 5 years ERDOĞAN has suffered a series of political, economic and diplomatic failures and defeats, seriously undermining his dictatorial and territorial ambitions. His air force shot down a RUSSIAN military jet operating within SYRIAN territory. The images of TURKISH jihadi mercenaries murdering a RUSSIAN pilot as he parachuted to safety, as well as a member of the RUSSIAN rescue party, caused the RUSSIAN government to halt the multi-billion-dollar RUSSIAN tourism industry in TURKEY and cancel lucrative business deals. He broke relations with ISRAEL, which undercut a lucrative gas and oil offshore contract. His support for ISIS and other violent Salafist mercenary groups operating in IRAQ and SYRIA provoked a rupture with SYRIA and IRAN. His subsequent effort to disavow TURKEY’S links with ISIS led to a series of horrific terror bombings by jihadi cells implanted in the country. TURKEY’S diplomatic position in EGYPT deteriorated as ERDOĞAN sought to maintain his ties with the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD after it had been ousted from power by a US sponsored EGYPTIAN military coup.

Domestically, ERDOĞAN alienated the secular KEMALIST military and civilian political-economic elite via trumped up trials and media purges. ERDOĞAN’S heavy-handed assault on liberal and leftist protestors over environmental issues increased Western concern. His brutal handling of the labor protests following the 2014 SOMA coalmine disaster, when over 300 workers were killed, further isolated him.

ERDOĞAN’S war on the KURDISH independence movements in TURKEY, IRAQ and especially in SYRIA, where they were allied with the US against the jihadi terrorist ISIS, added to domestic unrest and international isolation.

In order to consolidate his executive power, ERDOĞAN had first allied with the extensive GULENIST-ISLAMIST networks in TURKEY in order to undermine the KEMALISTS and then he turned around to purge his former allies.

Faced with enemies and adversaries at home and overseas, ERDOĞAN decided on a dual strategy of improving his ties abroad, especially his links with RUSSIA and ISRAEL while launching a total war on domestic critics.

FABRICATED COUP AND THE PERMANENT PURGE

ERDOĞAN’S intelligence operatives within the military command encouraged or even provoked his critics in the General Staff, who were fed up with his bungling and disastrous policies, to mount a coup. They gave the rebellious military sufficient space and resources to provide a semblance of authority while retaining strategic control over the air force and key ground troops. They may have feigned sympathy to the launching of a premature uprising …doomed to defeat. Once the heavily infiltrated rebel units moved, the entire ERDOĞAN operation struck. Hapless conscripts thought they had been called out for military exercises, only to find themselves encircled, arrested and even lynched. The dissidents were isolated, their advances paralyzed, their leaders incapacitated. ERDOĞAN’S loyalist within the TURKISH Air Force flew the triumphant president into the ‘liberated’ ISTANBUL International airport to the cheers of his adoring civilian supporters.

ERDOĞAN immediately decreed a massive purge – in the name of the fatherland. A real coup had indeed taken place – ERDOĞAN’S total power grab. The entire political, military, judicial and police system was stripped of personnel within hours. There were over 20,000 arrests, beatings and disappearances. There were calls to re-introduce the death penalty.

ERDOĞAN’S power grab eliminated key US assets among the GULENIST and eliminated independent Supreme Court officials and secular republican officials. The president was free to rebuild an entire civil, governmental and military apparatus with his own loyalists. His control over the media and the educational institutions was total.

RULE UNDER ERDOĢAN

ERDOĞAN’S pre-emptive coup, purge and power grab will result in a monolithic state which ERDOĢAN will shape into his long-sought version of an Islamist regime. The new regime announced a ‘State of Emergency’, which places all TURKS under strict compliance with ERDOĞAN’S policies.

ERDOĞAN’S “New Order” will launch large-scale operations against the KURDS, with no respect for the SYRIAN or IRAQI national borders. ERDOĞAN will ensure compliance with Islamist decrees designed to enforce conformity. He will succeed in imposing a dictatorial ‘Presidential’ regime. And parliament, if necessary will be bypassed; his ‘electoral’ mandate will be ensured.

In the immediate aftermath, mass detentions will strengthen the state – and ERDOĞAN’S generals, allied religious authorities and street thugs will call the shots.

Unleashing force and violence against his domestic enemies, however, may lead to internal disputes among the new predators over the spoils of victory. The economic elite may accept the New Order, but only if and when ERDOĞAN tones down his rhetorical attacks on the US and the EU.

ERDOĞAN has yet to develop a strategy on replacing the purged (‘GULENIST’) professionals within the civilian economy and public bureaucracy – especially the schools and judiciary. The impetuous reversals of his reckless policy of confrontation with RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, IRAN, IRAQ and the KURDS are likely to generate new layers of discontent, especially among his current military commanders.

ERDOĞAN’S New Order arises from the breakdown of civil society and long-term alliances. He may remain in power in ANKARA but he will be viewed as more of a local political thug than a partner among the regional big powers.

ERDOĞAN’S external allies will exploit his isolation and radical bombast to forge lucrative alliances. ISRAEL will push for favorable gas and oil deals; RUSSIA will insist that ERDOĞAN abandons his ISIS allies. The US will demand he cease attacks on the KURDS. The EU will use the ongoing purge and re-institution of the death penalty to finally declare TURKEY unfit to join the EUROPEAN UNION. Bankers and foreign investors will wait for ERDOĞAN to stop his rampage over the financial sector and ‘get serious’ about the economy.

ERDOĞAN’S DREAM OF LIFETIME RULER SHIP PRESIDING OVER AN ISLAMIC NEO-OTTOMAN CALIPHATE,

buttressed by street mobs, praetorian guards and crony capitalists makes for an unstable and unruly TURKEY. ERDOĞAN’S military loyalists have their own rivalries and ambitions. Now that ERDOĞAN has established his ‘military road to power’, he has set a clear precedent for other ‘ERDOĞAN’S’ to take the same route.

In the short-run ERDOĞAN needs to restart the economy, stabilize the political system and establish a semblance of international order.

ERDOĞAN cannot and probably will not prolong tensions with the US over the GULEN affair. GULEN will remain in PENNSYLVANIA, in the CIA’s ‘regime change’ pocket. Meanwhile, he has eliminated most of the GULENIST agents capable of working with the US as a fifth-column. The question is whether he now moves back to his role as a ‘valued’ NATO junior partner, or if he will launch an intensified war against the US’s strategic KURDISH allies?

ERDOĞAN’S ties with RUSSIA are precarious. There is no reason for the RUSSIANS to trust him. He has fallen somewhere between the need for reconciliation with RUSSIA and the desire to continue his proxy war against the government of SYRIA.

In the end ERDOĞAN may have secured power and undertaken a vast domestic purge of his enemies, but he has lost the regional war while bearing the consequences of millions of war refugees and a deeply entrenched jihadi terrorist threat within TURKEY.

The original source of this article is Global Research

Copyright © Prof. James Petras, Global Research, 2016

TURKEY AND EUROPE

ENERGY IS THE REASON EUROPE IS STILL BACKING ERDOGAN

A lot of people in EUROPE are wondering why political leaders on the continent seem to be ready to agree with whatever TURKISH President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN says, and do anything he demands. Many resent ERDOGAN’S hand-twisting approach to the migrant crisis and worry about TURKEY turning into a dictatorship, plain and simple.

Now, the attempted coup by the TURKISH military has become the latest event to highlight TURKEY’S major role in the global energy market and the implications of any political shakeup in the country for this same market.

The BOSPHORUS is where around 3 percent of daily global crude oil shipments pass, or some 3 million barrels. This may not be a lot in percentage terms, but for EUROPE it accounts for well over a quarter of its total crude oil imports. EUROPE imported 1.559 billion barrels from the former SOVIET UNION last year, or an average of 4 million barrels daily, according to EUROPEAN Commission figures.

TURKEY - A MAJOR HUB FOR OIL AND GAS COMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA

Besides the BOSPHORUS, TURKEY is also home to two pipelines for CASPIAN and IRAQI crude, as well as the Southern Gas Corridor, which should provide EUROPE with an alternative source of natural gas in hopes of undermining the leading position of RUSSIA’S Gazprom on the EUROPEAN market.

There is also the CEYHAN port, TURKEY’S main crude export terminal. This is where the two pipelines from AZERBAIJAN and IRAQ end up, and this is also allegedly where a lot of ISIS oil ends up. In short, TURKEY is already a major hub for oil and gas coming from the MIDDLE EAST and CENTRAL ASIA, and its importance in this respect will only grow as new projects—especially gas projects—come online.

Then there is the SYRIAN war, and TURKEY’S vested interest in it in light of plans for a pipeline that would carry gas from QATAR to TURKEY, and from there, on to EUROPE. This pipeline would serve the geopolitical interests of SAUDI ARABIA, helping it to get the upper hand over IRAN, which, now that most of the economic sanctions against it have been lifted, is eager to return to the global energy market. It would also, some would argue, serve U.S. geopolitical interests by once again undermining RUSSIA’S dominance as gas supplier to the EUROPEAN continent.

IRAN-IRAQ: PIPELINE TO SYRIA UPS ANTE IN PROXY WAR WITH QATAR

IRAQ’S agreement to allow IRAN to build a pipeline through its territory and on to SYRIA is in direct competition with QATAR’S similar designs for a SYRIA pipeline that would connect to TURKEY. This pipeline is another proxy in the SYRIAN conflict theater and Iran’s response to its loss of ground here. It is also a sign of IRAN’S growing foothold in IRAQ. QATAR will respond in kind.

The IRAQI Cabinet green lighted IRAN’S $10 billion pipeline project, which will supply gas from the South Pars field (which is the largest in the world, and which, as mentioned above, it shares with QATAR) to SYRIA and beyond to other export markets. There is talk of extending the pipeline to LEBANON.

The first part of the pipeline—some 225 kilometers—through IRAQ will reportedly be completed in June 2013. The pipeline will connect the southern IRANIAN port of Assolouyeh to IRAQ and then to SYRIA—for now. It will have a 110 million cubic meter/day capacity. The plan is to give IRAQ 20 million cubic meters/day of IRANIAN gas for its power plants, with 20-25 million cubic meters/day going to SYRIA. Source: http://news.az/articles/iran/41175

TURKEYS AND EUROPE’S GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS ARE LARGELY OVERLAPPING

These geopolitical interests largely overlap with EUROPEAN ones. The EUROPEAN UNION (EU) has made it abundantly clear that it wants a variety of energy supply sources. Natural gas is especially important as a cleaner and cheaper alternative to crude. Europe will need more gas in the years to come, and it doesn’t want it to come from RUSSIA—or at least not so much of it.

This is why EUROPE is tip-toeing around ERDOGAN; and this is why EUROPEAN leaders seem to dance to any tune ANKARA’S boss plays. That’s also why EUROPEAN leaders were not too enthusiastic when the attempted coup failed, despite official declarations in support of ERDOGAN’S government.

ERDOGAN - THE NEW MASTER OF THE EUROPEAN GAS TAP

They did have enough dignity left to warn him to watch himself when dealing with the coup plotters; yet one cannot help but ask: what is EUROPE going to do if ERDOGAN decides to re-introduce the death penalty, especially for them? What is it going to do if he uses the coup to further curb civil rights and cement himself at the helm? Refuse to admit TURKEY into the EUROPEAN UNION? Not a big deal as far as ERDOGAN and his vision of a new imperial TURKEY that dominates the region are concerned.

ERDOGAN will in all likelihood be the new master of the EUROPEAN gas tap. It’s ironic how democratic EUROPE seems to be forever dependent on dictators for its energy, at least until it goes fully renewable, which is not going to happen any time soon.

By Irina Slav via Oilprice.com

Background Information: Click on title to read entire report

SYRIA – QATAR PIPELINE

NEW ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE?

IS THE TRANS ARABIAN PIPELINE “TAPLINE” THE ANSWER TO THE WHY THE WAR IN SYRIA WAGES?

Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote in January 2012:

GEO STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE OF IRAN’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND GAS PIPELINE DEAL BETWEEN IRAN SYRIA AND IRAQ and

REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE?

UKRAINE AND TURKEY,

AND THE NEXT REFUGEE CRISIS ?

By J.Hawk

UKRAINIAN President PETRO POROSHENKO’S recent visit to ANKARA, which took place against the backdrop of a major political crisis in KIEV which is revolving around POROSHENKO’S efforts to oust the hapless Prime Minister ARSENIY “Yats is the Man” YATSENYUK in order to reapportion UKRAINE’S rapidly shrinking economic pie to his own cronies, clearly must have dealt with matters important enough to warrant his absence from KIEV at a time like this.

TURKEY WILLING TO INVEST IN UKRAINE AND INCREASE BILATERAL TRADE

The official news releases and subsequent reporting do shed a fair amount of light on what the two leaders have discussed, and for the most part the most important theme was money. Thus POROSHENKO appears to have made some pretty attractive offers to ERDOGAN concerning the privatization of UKRAINE’S coal mines, including ones located in NOVOROSSIA where UKRAINE’S laws no longer reach. There was also some discussion of the status of CRIMEA, with the two sides expressing interest in raising the peninsula’s profile in a variety of international organizations. There was even considerable chatter in UKRAINE’S media and social media concerning UKRAINE officially ceding (!) CRIMEA to TURKEY for an unspecified sum of money. 

All in all, POROSHENKO appears interested in drawing ERDOGAN into UKRAINE’S internal politics and the UKRAINE–RUSSIA relationship by giving him a financial stake in the outcome of the conflict. For its part, TURKISH leaders announced they are willing to invest in UKRAINE and increase the level of bilateral trade.

Which raises the question: what exactly are the two countries going to trade? Here, the two leaders have a remarkable self-interest overlap. Both of them have extensive ties to organized crime in their countries and profit enormously from a variety of smuggling activities and from control over trade routes.

CLASH OF CLANS ?

Thus ERDOGAN, his family, and his political inner circle benefited from ISIS oil smuggling and the refugee smuggling to EUROPE. POROSHENKO and his clan benefit from smuggling activities into the EU, particularly after the appointment of GENNADIY MOSKAL to the post of the local governor, where he was sent after establishing POROSHENKO’S control over smuggling in the NOVOROSSIA area. More recently, POROSHENKO’S “activists” have been trying to extract revenue from a variety of transit blockades, first around the border with Crimea, and more recently in TRANSCARPATHIA. But these business models are beginning to fail, in both cases due to RUSSIA’S actions, though EU’s own policies have also damaged the illicit operations’ profitability. RUSSIA-led destruction of ISIS and the interdiction of oil smuggling routes, combined with diverting RUSSIAN cargo traffic flows away from UKRAINE, has hit the two organized crime kingpins’ pocket books pretty hard. EU’s closing of borders to migrants coming through the BALKANS is also having a financial effect.

FUNNEL MIDDLE EAST REFUGEES INTO UKRAINE FOR FURTHER “DISTRIBUTION” INTO THE EU

Therefore it might be tempting for the two leaders to collaborate on opening a new “trade route” of sorts, one that would funnel MIDDLE EAST refugees into UKRAINE for further “distribution” into other parts of the continent.

The scheme has much to recommend it. It would increase pressure on both RUSSIA and EU, since the refugees could now enter POLAND, ROMANIA, BELARUS, and RUSSIA following their entry into UKRAINE. It would increase the profits of smugglers in TURKEY as well as UKRAINE, ultimately benefiting ERDOGAN and POROSHENKO.

And it would give both leaders the ability to once again turn to the EU and demand billions of EUROs, as well as visa-free travel regime with the EU, in return for their promise to “deal” with the refugee crisis. ERDOGAN has already demonstrated that the EU is very easily blackmailed and has almost no ability to exercise “hard power” against TURKEY or UKRAINE, for that matter. There is no reason to expect ERDOGAN will abide by whatever terms he has reached with the EU, and there is every reason to expect POROSHENKO to try to learn from ERDOGAN’S example and collude with him on refugee smuggling.

The logistics of the new route remain unclear, but they could be resolved, ironically, with the money provided by the EU to help the refugees!  The most plausible scenario, and one least likely to provoke naval interdiction efforts, would include POROSHENKO offering to house some of the MIDDLE EASTERN refugees. Once in UKRAINE, they would be set free (after paying a small “handling fee” to whichever POROSHENKO-linked organization will be empowered to deal with the new arrivals) and pointed in the general direction of UKRAINE’S closest international border.  The fact that UKRAINIAN navy ships are already coursing between ODESSA and ISTANBUL, ostensibly to ferry $800 million worth of TURKISH non-lethal military aid to the UAF, suggests that the logistical route is already being paved.

WHERE IS TURKEY POLITICALLY HEADING ?

TURKEY, BETWEEN IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA

The new international openings towards IRAN introduce a possibility of economic cooperation between ANKARA and TEHRAN, two regional powers so far divided

The lifting of sanctions against IRAN by the UNITED STATES and EUROPE could introduce a new commercial and political balance in the MIDDLE EAST, namely in SYRIA.

When it comes to the resolution of the SYRIAN conflict, TURKEY and IRAN, historical rivals in the region, are on opposite positions. While ANKARA has worked for some time on overthrowing SYRIAN president BASHAR AL ASSAD, TEHRAN, in line with RUSSIA, moves in the opposite direction.

TURKEY, moreover, is in disagreement with the UNITED STATES because of WASHINGTON'S collaboration with the KURDISH Democratic Party (PYD) in the fight against ISIL, but is also part of the anti-ISLAMIC State (ISIL) coalition. Since July, it allowed WASHINGTON to use the INCIRLIK military air base for its air strikes against ISIL.

(If TURKEY is really part of the anti ISIL coalition is debatable, for TURKEY clearly seems to have a double edged sword policy on this issue.)

While tensions with MOSCOW have risen, after TURKISH aviation shot down a RUSSIAN military jet on 24 November, in the recent confrontation between Iran and SAUDI ARABIA after the execution in RIYADH of SHIA SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR, TURKEY tried to maintain a position of balance between the two ISLAMIC powers.

Tension between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN has the potential to deepen the problems already existing in the region. It is therefore important to act sensibly and leave the doors to diplomacy open. The region does not need new conflict, but agreement and collaboration. TURKEY is ready to take any action to overcome problems between the two countries, TURKEYS foreign minister emphasized in a recent public address.

ANKARA, A SYRIA HOSTAGE?

Since the beginning of the civil war in SYRIA, the policy of the TURKISH government has been to favor the SUNNI MUSLIM side. Turkey supported a government with a MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD majority. When this failed, an unspoken alliance was established with SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR.

TURKISH MIDDLE EASTERN policy has been taken hostage by SYRIA. Consequently TURKEY has befriended countries whose policies agree with those of ANKARA in SYRIA, and made enemies of all the others.

Now, many think that ANKARA'S alliance with RIYADH, just when IRAN is entering a new economic and political phase, could drag TURKEY into a dangerous situation, affected by religious sectarianism.

Background Information: 

TURKEY’S SECTARIANISM

click here:

Turkey would make a significant contribution to the resolution of the SYRIAN crisis if it could bring itself to rise above the sectarian considerations that have dictated its regime change policy in SYRIA.

THE "STRATEGIC" RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND SAUDI ARABIA

The change of leadership in SAUDI ARABIA,

in January 2015, has led to a new configuration of the SUNNI power in the MIDDLE EAST. TURKISH President, RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, visited King SALMAN BIN ABDUL-AZIZ AL SAUD three times in one year, giving his support to the SAUDI military campaign in YEMEN. At the end of December both countries, considering "the critical period the region was crossing" and their "brotherhood, friendship and strategic partnership", have agreed the formation of a "superior council for strategic cooperation".

An agreement which held major significance when ERDOĞAN, returning from RIYADH, said that TURKEY and ISRAEL, an historic enemy of IRAN, "need" each other.

Background Information: 

ISRAEL AND IRAN

click here:

ARE IRAN AND ISRAEL REALLY ARCHENEMIES, OR IS IT JUST A FACADE? 

This announcement came after a much discussed preliminary agreement was reached in mid-December to renew diplomatic ties between the two countries, interrupted in 2010 after the military intervention by ISRAELI military on the TURKISH ship MAVI MARMARA.

If ERDOĞAN'S approaching of King SALMAN was aimed at increasing cooperation in solving regional issues, then the SAUDI-IRANIAN crisis has complicated TURKEY'S regional plans, especially those in SYRIA.

Trio Infernale

The military efforts of RIYADH to put pressure on TEHRAN don't seem to have produced the desired effect. Nor did the attempt to diplomatically isolate IRAN, in the wake of the attacks and protests made against SAUDI representatives after SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR was condemned to death. "The results achieved by the SAUDIS in urging their allies to break diplomatic ties with IRAN are a long way from damaging TEHRAN", says FEHIM TAŞTEKIN, a MIDDLE EAST expert journalist at RADIKAL daily. "Only BAHRAIN, SUDAN, SOMALIA and DJIBOUTI broke ties with IRAN. TURKEY only recalled the IRANIAN ambassador to ANKARA as a warning.”

In this context WASHINGTON'S position is fundamental. According to TAŞTEKIN, "The UNITED STATES found that cooperating with IRAN in IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN was useful and they were forced to include TEHRAN in the talks in GENEVA and VIENNA, in order to overcome the deadlock in SYRIA.”

THE TURKEY - IRAN RELATIONS

Despite being difficult, relations between ANKARA and TEHRAN should necessarily remain of mutual understanding, for the sake of economic and commercial interest above all.

Background Information: 

TURKEY AND IRAN

click here:

PROFOUND STRATEGIC RIVALRY

Iran is the second country after RUSSIA from which TURKEY buys natural gas, which covers almost 20 percent of its energy consumption. After the crisis with RUSSIA, TURKEY is exploring new alternative suppliers, even though interruption of supply of natural gas from RUSSIA (64 percent of ANKARA'S requirement) does not seem imminent.

The most optimistic forecast believes that the positive effect of lifting sanctions on the Iranian economy will as also be felt in TURKEY. The volume of trade and the amount of oil bought by ANKARA is expected to rise. In the past, about half its requirements came from IRAN; under the sanctions, the oil import from IRAN went down to about 31 percent.

The new opening to IRAN could have positive effects on the building industry, which has been in serious difficulties for some years in the MIDDLE EAST. The slowdown in the sector in LIBYA, IRAQ and RUSSIA would encourage entrepreneurs to look for IRANIAN projects.

According to the local press the first contacts have already been made four months ago. "TURKEY has been close to IRAN during the period of the sanctions with about 200 companies investing in various sectors', says BILGIN AYGÜL, chairman of the TURKISH-IRANIAN Labour Council. He foresees a turnover between the two countries to reach $30 billion within a few years.

Could an increase in IRAN'S influence become a disadvantage for TURKEY? According to AHMET KASIM HAN, of the Research centre for economy and foreign policy (EDAM), it depends on the decisions ANKARA will make.

Han believes that TURKEY could become important to TEHRAN for delivering natural gas towards EUROPE, and adds that "there is no doubt IRAN will be more self-confident in the region. In SYRIA as in YEMEN, however, rivalry between TURKEY and IRAN will be inevitable, although it will be in most likelihood a 'controllable tension' unless they decide to stay only on one side. Maintaining their position in SYRIA, taking a position against IRAN in IRAQ, openly supporting SAUDI ARABIA... It will all depend on which decisions are made.

Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) from the article originally written by Fazıla Mat via  Balcanicaucaso.org

TO BE OR NOT TO BE - TURKISH – SAUDI GROUND INVASION IN SYRIA

MUNICH PUTS STAMP ON TIGHTENED US-RUSSIAN MILITARY COOPERATION IN SYRIA

Via DEBKAfile’s

At the end of hours of debate in MUNICH, US Secretary of State JOHN KERRY announced early Friday, Feb. 12, that the US, RUSSIA and other powers had agreed to a “cessation of hostilities” in SYRIA’S civil war to take place next week and immediate humanitarian access to besieged areas.

RUSSIAN Foreign Minister SERGEI LAVROV added: The cessation would go into effect in due course but, he stressed, “terrorist” groups would continue to be targeted.

Possibly for the first time in his diplomatic career, KERRY termed an international document he initiated “words on paper” because, he said, “the proof of commitment will come only with implementation.”

The document was signed by 17 nations, including SAUDI Foreign Minister ADEL AL-JUBAYR for the SYRIAN opposition and IRAN’S top diplomat MUHAMMED JAVAD ZARIF in the name of the ASSAD regime.

LAVROV listed the terrorist groups that will continue to be targeted as the ISLAMIC STATE and JABHAT AL-NUSRA, an AL-QAEDA affiliate in SYRIA. Since JABHAT members are integrated in many non-jihadi rebel groups, DEBKAfile’s analysts infer enough caveats in the paper to be used as carte blanche for RUSSIA, SYRIA, IRAN and HIZBALLAH to carry on fighting the ASSAD regime’s enemies, even after the ceasefire goes into effect.

Image DEBKAfile's

The nub of the MUNICH accord was therefore the parties authorized to name the terrorists. This was spelled out as follows: “The determination of eligible targets and geographic areas is to be left up to a task force of nations headed by RUSSIA and the UNITED STATES.”

This puts the entire agreement in the joint hands of the US and RUSSIA. LAVROV emphasized, “The key thing is to build direct contacts, not only on procedures to avoid incidents, but also cooperation between our militaries.”

The MUNICH accord therefore provided the framework for expanding the existing US-RUSSIAN coordination on air force flights over SYRIA to cover their direct collaboration in broader aspects of military operations in the war-torn country.

LAVROV mentioned a “qualitative” change in US military policy to cooperate with RUSSIA in continuing the fight against the ISLAMIC STATE, but it clearly goes beyond that.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that this collaboration has been in place since December, when Presidents BARACK OBAMA and VLADIMIR PUTIN concluded a secret pact for working together to end the SYRIAN war.

This pact was first revealed by DEBKA Weekly as setting out a division of military responsibility between the two powers: The AMERICANS took charge of areas east of the EUPHRATES, leaving the RUSSIANS responsible for the territory west of the river. The MUNICH accord provides this pact with a formal framework

A glance at the attached map shows the specifics of their arrangement:

The RUSSIANS military is in control of all the land in southern, central and western SYRIA, including DAMASCUS, the southern town of DARAA, HOMS, HAMA and LATAKIA in the center and ALEPPO in the north.

THE MUNICH ACCORD FOR ENDING HOSTILITIES IN SYRIA PROVIDED A RUBBER STAMP FOR THE HOSTILITIES TO CONTINUE

The US military has control of the KURDISH towns of HASSAKEH and QAMISHLI in the north, the ISIS de facto SYRIAN capital of RAQQA and the border regions between SYRIA and IRAQ. The SYRIAN-TURKISH border district is divided between the RUSSIANS and AMERICANS.

Therefore, behind the diplomatic bombast, the MUNICH accord for ending hostilities in SYRIA provided a rubber stamp for the hostilities to continue, amid the ramping up of US military intervention in the war, both by air and on the ground, in close collaboration with RUSSIA.

Neither KERRY nor LAVROV referred to the massive refugee crisis building up primarily on the locked SYRIAN-TURKISH frontier, indicating ANKARA’S exclusion from the MUNICH deliberations and the big power planning for SYRIA’S future.