WHERE IS TURKEY POLITICALLY HEADING ?

TURKEY, BETWEEN IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA

The new international openings towards IRAN introduce a possibility of economic cooperation between ANKARA and TEHRAN, two regional powers so far divided

The lifting of sanctions against IRAN by the UNITED STATES and EUROPE could introduce a new commercial and political balance in the MIDDLE EAST, namely in SYRIA.

When it comes to the resolution of the SYRIAN conflict, TURKEY and IRAN, historical rivals in the region, are on opposite positions. While ANKARA has worked for some time on overthrowing SYRIAN president BASHAR AL ASSAD, TEHRAN, in line with RUSSIA, moves in the opposite direction.

TURKEY, moreover, is in disagreement with the UNITED STATES because of WASHINGTON'S collaboration with the KURDISH Democratic Party (PYD) in the fight against ISIL, but is also part of the anti-ISLAMIC State (ISIL) coalition. Since July, it allowed WASHINGTON to use the INCIRLIK military air base for its air strikes against ISIL.

(If TURKEY is really part of the anti ISIL coalition is debatable, for TURKEY clearly seems to have a double edged sword policy on this issue.)

While tensions with MOSCOW have risen, after TURKISH aviation shot down a RUSSIAN military jet on 24 November, in the recent confrontation between Iran and SAUDI ARABIA after the execution in RIYADH of SHIA SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR, TURKEY tried to maintain a position of balance between the two ISLAMIC powers.

Tension between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN has the potential to deepen the problems already existing in the region. It is therefore important to act sensibly and leave the doors to diplomacy open. The region does not need new conflict, but agreement and collaboration. TURKEY is ready to take any action to overcome problems between the two countries, TURKEYS foreign minister emphasized in a recent public address.

ANKARA, A SYRIA HOSTAGE?

Since the beginning of the civil war in SYRIA, the policy of the TURKISH government has been to favor the SUNNI MUSLIM side. Turkey supported a government with a MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD majority. When this failed, an unspoken alliance was established with SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR.

TURKISH MIDDLE EASTERN policy has been taken hostage by SYRIA. Consequently TURKEY has befriended countries whose policies agree with those of ANKARA in SYRIA, and made enemies of all the others.

Now, many think that ANKARA'S alliance with RIYADH, just when IRAN is entering a new economic and political phase, could drag TURKEY into a dangerous situation, affected by religious sectarianism.

Background Information: 

TURKEY’S SECTARIANISM

click here:

Turkey would make a significant contribution to the resolution of the SYRIAN crisis if it could bring itself to rise above the sectarian considerations that have dictated its regime change policy in SYRIA.

THE "STRATEGIC" RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND SAUDI ARABIA

The change of leadership in SAUDI ARABIA,

in January 2015, has led to a new configuration of the SUNNI power in the MIDDLE EAST. TURKISH President, RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, visited King SALMAN BIN ABDUL-AZIZ AL SAUD three times in one year, giving his support to the SAUDI military campaign in YEMEN. At the end of December both countries, considering "the critical period the region was crossing" and their "brotherhood, friendship and strategic partnership", have agreed the formation of a "superior council for strategic cooperation".

An agreement which held major significance when ERDOĞAN, returning from RIYADH, said that TURKEY and ISRAEL, an historic enemy of IRAN, "need" each other.

Background Information: 

ISRAEL AND IRAN

click here:

ARE IRAN AND ISRAEL REALLY ARCHENEMIES, OR IS IT JUST A FACADE? 

This announcement came after a much discussed preliminary agreement was reached in mid-December to renew diplomatic ties between the two countries, interrupted in 2010 after the military intervention by ISRAELI military on the TURKISH ship MAVI MARMARA.

If ERDOĞAN'S approaching of King SALMAN was aimed at increasing cooperation in solving regional issues, then the SAUDI-IRANIAN crisis has complicated TURKEY'S regional plans, especially those in SYRIA.

Trio Infernale

The military efforts of RIYADH to put pressure on TEHRAN don't seem to have produced the desired effect. Nor did the attempt to diplomatically isolate IRAN, in the wake of the attacks and protests made against SAUDI representatives after SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR was condemned to death. "The results achieved by the SAUDIS in urging their allies to break diplomatic ties with IRAN are a long way from damaging TEHRAN", says FEHIM TAŞTEKIN, a MIDDLE EAST expert journalist at RADIKAL daily. "Only BAHRAIN, SUDAN, SOMALIA and DJIBOUTI broke ties with IRAN. TURKEY only recalled the IRANIAN ambassador to ANKARA as a warning.”

In this context WASHINGTON'S position is fundamental. According to TAŞTEKIN, "The UNITED STATES found that cooperating with IRAN in IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN was useful and they were forced to include TEHRAN in the talks in GENEVA and VIENNA, in order to overcome the deadlock in SYRIA.”

THE TURKEY - IRAN RELATIONS

Despite being difficult, relations between ANKARA and TEHRAN should necessarily remain of mutual understanding, for the sake of economic and commercial interest above all.

Background Information: 

TURKEY AND IRAN

click here:

PROFOUND STRATEGIC RIVALRY

Iran is the second country after RUSSIA from which TURKEY buys natural gas, which covers almost 20 percent of its energy consumption. After the crisis with RUSSIA, TURKEY is exploring new alternative suppliers, even though interruption of supply of natural gas from RUSSIA (64 percent of ANKARA'S requirement) does not seem imminent.

The most optimistic forecast believes that the positive effect of lifting sanctions on the Iranian economy will as also be felt in TURKEY. The volume of trade and the amount of oil bought by ANKARA is expected to rise. In the past, about half its requirements came from IRAN; under the sanctions, the oil import from IRAN went down to about 31 percent.

The new opening to IRAN could have positive effects on the building industry, which has been in serious difficulties for some years in the MIDDLE EAST. The slowdown in the sector in LIBYA, IRAQ and RUSSIA would encourage entrepreneurs to look for IRANIAN projects.

According to the local press the first contacts have already been made four months ago. "TURKEY has been close to IRAN during the period of the sanctions with about 200 companies investing in various sectors', says BILGIN AYGÜL, chairman of the TURKISH-IRANIAN Labour Council. He foresees a turnover between the two countries to reach $30 billion within a few years.

Could an increase in IRAN'S influence become a disadvantage for TURKEY? According to AHMET KASIM HAN, of the Research centre for economy and foreign policy (EDAM), it depends on the decisions ANKARA will make.

Han believes that TURKEY could become important to TEHRAN for delivering natural gas towards EUROPE, and adds that "there is no doubt IRAN will be more self-confident in the region. In SYRIA as in YEMEN, however, rivalry between TURKEY and IRAN will be inevitable, although it will be in most likelihood a 'controllable tension' unless they decide to stay only on one side. Maintaining their position in SYRIA, taking a position against IRAN in IRAQ, openly supporting SAUDI ARABIA... It will all depend on which decisions are made.

Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) from the article originally written by Fazıla Mat via  Balcanicaucaso.org

SAUDI ARABIA ON THE BRINK OF REGIME CHANGE?

IS SAUDI ARABIA REALLY AT THE BRINK OF A 

ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DOWNFALL?

It seems that SAUDI ARABIA has started to undergo the transformation various experts predicted. Those became obvious when the sitting king SALMAN BIN ABDULAZIZ AL SAUD replaced his deceased elder brother ABDULLAH BIN ABDULAZIZ AL SAUD in January 2015, and made a number of quite unusual arrangements within the ruling elite, appointing the head of the Ministry of Interior MUHAMMAD BIN NAYEF from ABDULLAH’S clan the Crown Prince, while his 33-year-old son MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN AL SAUDFROM the SUDAIRY clan received the appointment of Deputy Crown Prince.

Background Information:

SAUDI ARABIA: THE NEXT GEOPOLITICAL TSUNAMI?

Even back then it was clear that within a short period of time the king would try to hand over all power in the country to his own son by sidestepping MUHAMMAD BIN NAYEF, while he himself would retire due to Alzheimer’s disease, becoming sort of a “king-father” with no real power, but with the right to an advisory vote on important decisions. Needless to say, it’s a direct violation of the tradition of succession to the throne from brother to brother that has been in place in SAUDI ARABIA that is going to be replaced by the father-to-son succession. To make such a transition one should be able to carry out a coup d’etat or win the approval of the succession board, which is formed according to different sources by 7 or 11 members of the AL SAUD dynasty.

QUARREL INSIDE THE HOUSE SAUD BECOMES STRONGER AMIDST ECONOMIC DOWNTURN

Now it seems that the wheels of the political machine are moving again. Recent reports from RIYADH indicated that his disease is taking a toll on the king and he wants to renounce his reign in favor of the Crown Prince. But then neighboring states, especially QATAR and the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, started hinting that the members of the SAUDI royal family along with the sheikhs of the strongest tribes, which are the foundation of AL SAUD’S rule, are extremely dissatisfied with the sharp deterioration of the economic and social situation in the country, leading to a major drop in their personal incomes. It is no secret that RIYADH increased the volume of oil production to weaken the positions of its main competitors – RUSSIA, IRAN and VENEZUELA. But the kingdom had to take a punch as well, it was forced to unseal its reserve fund and cut the funding of numerous social programs.

GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CHESS GAME AMONG SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN, RUSSIA, SYRIA AND IRAQ

And then came the execution of 47 Shia public figures, including the popular human rights activist NIMR BAQIR AL-NIMR. The executions were designed as a form of retaliation to IRAN and HEZBOLLAH for the help they have provided to the SYRIAN people in the fight against pro-SAUDI militants.

Background Information:

click here: SAUDI’S STRATEGIC EASTERN PROVINCE

This step provoked massive unrest in the SHIA areas of the kingdom, the areas that produce the better part of all SAUDI oil. The country has found itself on the brink of a civil war and a military conflict with IRAN at the same time, which has also provoked major discontent in the West. After all, the West needs a politically loyal IRAN, a country in which huge investments can be made, especially in oil and gas sectors, in order to push RUSSIAN out of the EUROPEAN gas market and the international oil markets at the same time. In this context TEHRAN is forced to carry on relying on MOSCOW in the confrontation with SAUDI ARABIA to ensure its safety and continue providing military assistance to SYRIA, IRAQ and SHIA rebels in YEMEN.

SAUDI KING TO RENOUNCE HIS THRONE TO HIS SON, MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN AL SAUD

Now the highly respected Institute for GULF AFFAIRS is stating that the king of SAUDI ARABIA SALMAN BIN ABDULAZIZ AL SAUD is preparing to renounce the throne in favor of his son MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN AL SAUD, and has since brought his country to the brink of a disaster.

It means that the 80-year-old SALMAN is trying desperately hard to persuade his brothers on the succession board to allow him to change the principle of succession of the SAUDI throne, since he’s ready to leave, but not so ready for his nephew MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN AL SAUD to rule the country.

Storm clouds over Mecca Image by: Amr Abdallah Dalsh / REUTERS

What the king has been doing is allegedly done “only for the sake of the stability of the kingdom.” Although the reality of the situation is clear – should SALMAN retain his position, the disintegration of the kingdom is imminent, with certain Shia areas breaking away, while the regions on the border with YEMEN which are mostly populated by YEMENI tribes, more than happy to return home. Moreover, the Minister of Interior used to be a habitual cocaine user, so he was only able to “produce” two daughters, and now he’s somewhat incapable of producing more children. Should the king manage to carry out the above described scheme, he will become the first SAUDI monarch to leave the throne to his son.

HAVE FALLING OIL PRICES REALLY STRUCK SAUDI ARABIA AT ITS HEART?

And the fact that there’s a growing crisis in SAUDI ARABIA was evident from the cuts in subsidies and bonuses that king SALMAN started at the beginning of this year to reduce the country’s total dependence on oil. After decades of extensive use of oil revenues to subsidize companies’ payment of generous salaries and providing enormous social benefits, falling oil prices struck SAUDI ARABIA at its heart.

It’s enough to say that revenues from oil exports in 2015 alone dropped by half. Ultimately it’s hard to say which country suffers the most from these oil wars – RUSSIA OR SAUDI ARABIA, since the latter has virtually no other sectors to support the economy. SAUDI economist TURKI FADAAK believes that SAUDI ARABIA is exiting the policy of “universal welfare”, so there’s an ongoing psychological shift in the minds of the ruling elite of the state. FADAAK is convinced that the ultimate aim of king SALMAN’S measures is to eliminate the SAUDI dependency on oil. But is it really? According to leading international experts – the answer is a resounding “no”, with all the arguments to the contrary nothing more than fantasy.

Although initially it seemed that SALMAN, who came to power after the death of his brother, King ABDULLAH, will continue his course, after assuming the throne SALMAN generously spent over 30 billion dollars from the budget on bonuses for civil servants, military personnel, and students. Additionally, prices for basic goods and services, including fuel, electricity and water prices were kept at extremely low levels due to government subsidies from oil revenues. However, due to falling oil prices, under the pressure of such costs the budget started to rupture. The most important thing now for the kingdom is to execute the transition from the extremely lavish social security system to a productive economy, but then the subjects of the king will be forced to cut their costs, and it looks that they do not agree with this notion. And accusations in the imminent economic collapse will go SALMAN’S way, so it is better for him to leave now, before protests even start.

CHANGE IN TACTICS

It is curious that SAUDI ARABIA has been rather realistic about its budget for the year 2016, since it was based on the average price of oil keeping at the level 29 dollars per barrel. Last year, the SAUDI budget deficit amounted to almost 98 billion dollars and the costs were considerably higher than it was originally planned due to bonuses for civil servants, military personnel and retirees. In 2016 the authorities decided to put up to 49 billion dollars into a special fund to provide funding for the most important projects in case oil prices drop even further. But it was SAUDI ARABIA back in 2014 that proposed new tactics for OPEC, which implied that there would be no cuts in the level of production, the tactics that drove oil prices to today’s levels.

So we are to learn pretty soon should RIYADH choose the path of the utter and complete collapse of the kingdom, or the path of giving power to the young and pragmatic technocrats who are going to pursue a comprehensive oil policy. Either way, SAUDI ARABIA will be forced to put an end to the costly military adventures in SYRIA and YEMEN as well as its confrontations with RUSSIA and IRAN.

By Peter Lvov via New Eastern Outlook

SYRIA: RETAKE OF ALEPPO IMMINENT?

RUSSIAN ROBOTS ON THE GROUND FOR FOUR-ARMY ASSAULT TO RETAKE ALEPPO

Via DEBKAfile’s

RUSSIAN, SYRIAN, IRANIAN and HIZBALLAH troops were taking up positions Monday, Jan. 18, for a massive offensive to retake ALEPPO, SYRIA’S second city. The rebel militias occupying different parts of the city have repulsed all previous assaults.

A victory in ALEPPO (prewar population: 1 million) is expected in MOSCOW, TEHRAN and DAMASCUS to reverse the tide of the war and force the SYRIAN rebels to accept that their insurgency is at an end and their only remaining option is to join the peace process initiated by RUSSIA on SYRIA’S future.

RUSSIAN military intervention since late August has lifted the SYRIAN army out of its hopeless state and imbued its officers with fresh vigor and the troops with high morale. BASHAD ASSAD’S army is not the same largely defeated one of five months ago. RUSSIAN air strikes have restored its commander’s confidence in their ability to win. Cutting-edge weapons are reaching combat units with RUSSIAN military advisers on hand to teach the SYRIAN army how to use them, along with exposure to advanced methods of warfare that have been developed by a world-class military.

DEBKAfile’s military sources add that the operational standards of HIZBALLAH and the pro-IRANIAN SHIITE militias fighting alongside the SYRIAN army have likewise been enhanced by their exposure to RUSSIAN tactics.

CONTRARY TO WESTERN MAINSTREAM MEDIA, IRANIAN AND SYRIAN BATTLE CASUALTIES HAVE DROPPED SUBSTANTIAL, DUE TO NEW TACTICS IMPOSED BY RUSSIA

Those tactics have produced a substantial drop in HIZBALLAH, IRANIAN and SYRIAN casualties in battle, contrary to reports of high casualties claimed in the Western mainstream press,

Robots, novel replacements for boots on the ground, recently made their debut appearance in the SYRIAN arena, our military sources have revealed. They are cast in a star role in the offensive for the recovery of ALEPPO.

Argo Mobility Platform combat robot 

Heralding a revolution in modern warfare, the RUSSIANS are fielding two kinds of robots – the Platform-M combat robot and the ARGO MOBILITY PLATFORM, both heavily armored and capable of functioning day or night in a variety of battlefield conditions. Platform-M gathers intelligence, uncovers fixed and moving targets and destroys them.  It also provides firepower support for forces on the move and secures military installations or routes traveled by the army.  Platform-M is armed with semiautomatic or automatic control firing systems for destroying enemy targets. Extra fire power can be mounted on the system as required.

The Argo is designed for rough-country operations, especially on mountainous or rocky terrain. In recent battles, SYRIAN rebels were startled to find themselves under sudden heavy fire from the unmanned RUSSIAN robots.

RUSSIAN General Staff Chief VALERY GERASIMOV recently spoke of a plan to “completely automate the battle in SYRIA.” He added, “Perhaps soon we will witness robotic groups independently conducting warfare.” Our military sources comment that this vision is overly futuristic. No totally robotic battlefield exists anywhere in the world today outside sci-fi cinema.

SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN – BOUND FOR AN ARMED CONFLICT?

WAR BETWEEN SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN 

COULD SEND OIL PRICES 

TO $250

The rift between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN has quickly ballooned into the worst conflict in decades between the two countries.

The back-and-forth escalation quickly turned the simmering tension into an overt struggle for power in the MIDDLE EAST. First, the execution of a prominent SHIITE cleric prompted protestors to set fire to the SAUDI embassy in TEHRAN. SAUDI ARABIA cut off diplomatic relations and kicked out IRANIAN diplomatic personnel. TEHRAN banned SAUDI goods from entering IRAN. Worst of all, IRAN blames SAUDI ARABIA for an airstrike that landed near its embassy in YEMEN.

SAUDI ARABIA’S SUNNI allies in the ARABIAN PENINSULA largely followed suit by downgrading diplomatic ties with IRAN. However, recognizing the dire implications of a major conflict in the region, most of SAUDI ARABIA’S GULF STATE allies did not go as far as to entirely sever diplomatic relations, as SAUDI ARABIA did. BAHRAIN, the one nation most closely allied with RIYADH, was the only one to take such a step.

TUG OF WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Many of them are concerned about a descent to further instability. Nations like KUWAIT and QATAR have trade links with IRAN, plus SHIITE populations of their own. Crucially, QATAR also shares a maritime border with IRAN as well as access to massive natural gas reserves in the PERSIAN GULF. These countries are trying to split the difference between the two belligerent nations in the MIDDLE EAST. "The SAUDIS are on the phone lobbying countries very hard to break off ties with IRAN but most GULF STATES are trying to find some common ground," a diplomat from an ARAB country told Reuters. "The problem is, common ground between everyone in this region is shrinking."

The effect from the brewing conflict on oil is murky, but for now it is not having a bullish impact. In the past, geopolitical tension in the MIDDLE EAST, especially involving large oil producers, would add a few dollars to the price of oil. This risk premium captured the possibility of a supply disruption into the price of a barrel of crude. However, recent events barely registered in oil trading. That is because the global glut in oil supplies loom larger than any potential for a supply disruption. Oil dropped to nearly $30 per barrel on January 12 and oil speculators are not paying any attention to the tension in the MIDDLE EAST.

WHAT IF THE CURRENT “COLD WAR” BETWEEN SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN TURNED HOT? – OIL PRICES WOULD SOAR    

Also, the conflict could simply manifest itself in an intensified battle for oil market share. IRAN has put forth aggressive goals to ramp up oil production in the near-term. And SAUDI ARABIA continues to produce well in excess of 10 million barrels per day while discounting its crude in several key markets, particularly in EUROPE in order to box out IRAN.

But what if the current “Cold War” between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN turned hot?

SAUDI ARABIA has a variety of reasons to not back down, not the least of which is the very real sense of being besieged on multiple fronts. An article in The New Statesman by former BRITISH Ambassador to SAUDI ARABIA, JOHN JENKINS, clearly laid out the threats that SAUDI ARABIA sees around every corner: extremists at home; a growing IRAN; toppled allies from the Arab Spring; low oil prices; and a fractured relationship with the UNITED STATES. The nuclear deal between IRAN and the WEST was confirmation on the feeling in RIYADH that it is becoming increasingly insecure.

PROXY BATTLES IN YEMEN AND SYRIA

Already the two rivals have engaged in proxy battles in YEMEN and SYRIA, supporting opposite sides in those wars. A full on direct military confrontation would be something entirely different, however. It would have catastrophic consequences for oil markets, even when taking into account the current supply overhang. Dr. HOSSEIN ASKARI, a professor at The George Washington University, told Oil & Gas 360 that a war between the two countries could lead to supply disruptions, with predictable impacts on prices.

   

 “If there is a war confronting IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA, oil could overnight go to above $250, but decline [back] down to the $100 level,” said ASKARI. “If they attack each other’s loading facilities, then we could see oil spike to over $500 and stay around there for some time depending on the extent of the damage.”

WHILE NOT IMPOSSIBLE, WAR IS SPECULATIVE AT THIS POINT.

Also, $250 and $500 per barrel are numbers pulled out of thin air, and may seem a bit sensationalist. But despite the glut in global oil production – somewhere around 1 mb/d – the margin from excess to shortage is thinner than most people think. OPEC is producing flat out and spare capacity is actually remarkably low right now. The EIA estimated that OPEC spare capacity stood at just 1.25 mb/d in the third quarter of 2015, the lowest level since 2008.

As a result, even though it remains a remote possibility, direct military confrontation between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN could well put oil back into triple-digit territory in short order.

By James Stafford via Oilprice.com