TURKEY,
BETWEEN IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA
The new international openings
towards IRAN introduce a possibility of economic cooperation between ANKARA and
TEHRAN, two regional powers so far divided
The lifting of sanctions against IRAN
by the UNITED STATES and EUROPE could introduce a new commercial and political
balance in the MIDDLE EAST, namely in SYRIA.
When it comes to the resolution
of the SYRIAN conflict, TURKEY and IRAN, historical rivals in the region, are
on opposite positions. While ANKARA has worked for some time on overthrowing SYRIAN
president BASHAR AL ASSAD, TEHRAN, in line with RUSSIA, moves in the opposite
direction.
TURKEY, moreover, is in
disagreement with the UNITED STATES because of WASHINGTON'S collaboration with
the KURDISH Democratic Party (PYD) in the
fight against ISIL, but is also part of the anti-ISLAMIC State (ISIL)
coalition. Since July, it allowed WASHINGTON to use the INCIRLIK military air
base for its air strikes against ISIL.
(If TURKEY is really part of the
anti ISIL coalition is debatable, for TURKEY clearly seems to have a double edged sword policy on this issue.)
While tensions with MOSCOW have
risen, after TURKISH aviation shot down a RUSSIAN military jet on 24 November,
in the recent confrontation between Iran and SAUDI ARABIA after the execution
in RIYADH of SHIA SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR, TURKEY tried to maintain a position of
balance between the two ISLAMIC powers.
Tension between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN
has the potential to deepen the problems already existing in the region. It is
therefore important to act sensibly and leave the doors to diplomacy open. The
region does not need new conflict, but agreement and collaboration. TURKEY is
ready to take any action to overcome problems between the two countries, TURKEYS
foreign minister emphasized in a recent public address.
ANKARA,
A SYRIA HOSTAGE?
Since the beginning of the civil
war in SYRIA, the policy of the TURKISH government has been to favor the SUNNI
MUSLIM side. Turkey supported a government with a MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD majority.
When this failed, an unspoken alliance was established with SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR.
TURKISH MIDDLE EASTERN policy has been taken hostage by SYRIA.
Consequently TURKEY has befriended countries whose policies agree with those of
ANKARA in SYRIA, and made enemies of all the others.
Now, many think that ANKARA'S alliance
with RIYADH, just when IRAN is entering a new economic and political phase,
could drag TURKEY into a dangerous situation, affected by religious
sectarianism.
Background
Information:
TURKEY’S SECTARIANISM
click here:
click here:
THE
"STRATEGIC" RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND SAUDI ARABIA
The change of leadership in SAUDI ARABIA,
in January 2015, has led to a new
configuration of the SUNNI power in the MIDDLE EAST. TURKISH President, RECEP
TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, visited King SALMAN BIN ABDUL-AZIZ AL SAUD three times in one
year, giving his support to the SAUDI military campaign in YEMEN. At the end of
December both countries, considering "the critical period the region was
crossing" and their "brotherhood, friendship and strategic
partnership", have agreed the formation of a "superior council for
strategic cooperation".
An agreement which held major
significance when ERDOĞAN, returning from RIYADH, said that TURKEY and ISRAEL,
an historic enemy of IRAN, "need" each other.
Background
Information:
ISRAEL AND IRAN
click here:
click here:
This announcement came after a
much discussed preliminary agreement was reached in mid-December to renew
diplomatic ties between the two countries, interrupted in 2010 after the
military intervention by ISRAELI military on the TURKISH ship MAVI MARMARA.
If ERDOĞAN'S approaching of King SALMAN
was aimed at increasing cooperation in solving regional issues, then the SAUDI-IRANIAN
crisis has complicated TURKEY'S regional plans, especially those in SYRIA.
 |
| Trio Infernale |
The military efforts of RIYADH to
put pressure on TEHRAN don't seem to have produced the desired effect. Nor did
the attempt to diplomatically isolate IRAN, in the wake of the attacks and
protests made against SAUDI representatives after SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR was
condemned to death. "The results achieved by the SAUDIS in urging their
allies to break diplomatic ties with IRAN are a long way from damaging TEHRAN",
says FEHIM TAŞTEKIN, a MIDDLE EAST expert journalist at RADIKAL daily.
"Only BAHRAIN, SUDAN, SOMALIA and DJIBOUTI broke ties with IRAN. TURKEY only
recalled the IRANIAN ambassador to ANKARA as a warning.”
In this context WASHINGTON'S
position is fundamental. According to TAŞTEKIN, "The UNITED STATES found
that cooperating with IRAN in IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN was useful and they were
forced to include TEHRAN in the talks in GENEVA and VIENNA, in order to
overcome the deadlock in SYRIA.”
THE
TURKEY - IRAN RELATIONS
Despite being difficult,
relations between ANKARA and TEHRAN should necessarily remain of mutual
understanding, for the sake of economic and commercial interest above all.
Iran is the second country after
RUSSIA from which TURKEY buys natural gas, which covers almost 20 percent of
its energy consumption. After the crisis with RUSSIA, TURKEY is exploring new
alternative suppliers, even though interruption of supply of natural gas from RUSSIA
(64 percent of ANKARA'S requirement) does not seem imminent.
The most optimistic forecast
believes that the positive effect of lifting sanctions on the Iranian economy
will as also be felt in TURKEY. The volume of trade and the amount of oil
bought by ANKARA is expected to rise. In the past, about half its requirements
came from IRAN; under the sanctions, the oil import from IRAN went down to
about 31 percent.
The new opening to IRAN could
have positive effects on the building industry, which has been in serious
difficulties for some years in the MIDDLE EAST. The slowdown in the sector in LIBYA,
IRAQ and RUSSIA would encourage entrepreneurs to look for IRANIAN projects.
According to the local press the
first contacts have already been made four months ago. "TURKEY has been
close to IRAN during the period of the sanctions with about 200 companies
investing in various sectors', says BILGIN AYGÜL, chairman of the TURKISH-IRANIAN
Labour Council. He foresees a turnover between the two countries to reach $30
billion within a few years.
Could an increase in IRAN'S
influence become a disadvantage for TURKEY? According to AHMET KASIM HAN, of
the Research centre for economy and foreign policy (EDAM), it depends on the
decisions ANKARA will make.
Han believes that TURKEY could
become important to TEHRAN for delivering natural gas towards EUROPE, and adds
that "there is no doubt IRAN will be more self-confident in the region. In
SYRIA as in YEMEN, however, rivalry between TURKEY and IRAN will be inevitable,
although it will be in most likelihood a 'controllable tension' unless they
decide to stay only on one side. Maintaining their position in SYRIA, taking a
position against IRAN in IRAQ, openly supporting SAUDI ARABIA... It will all
depend on which decisions are made.
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis
and Monitoring (GAM) from the article originally written by Fazıla Mat via Balcanicaucaso.org
No comments:
Post a Comment