RUSSIA AND SYRIA

RUSSIAN NUCLEAR-CAPABLE ISKANDER MISSILES DEPLOYED IN SYRIA

via DEBKAfile 

RUSSIA has deployed its most advanced tactical missile system, the Iskander-M, in SYRIA in the last few days, DEBKAfile reports exclusively from its military and intelligence sources. The RUSSIAN Iskander is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and has never been made available to any foreign army for operational use.

No nuclear-capable surface missiles were deployed in any ARAB country bordering on ISRAEL since 2007 when CHINESE DF-21 missiles were installed in SAUDI ARABIA.

The RUSSIAN missiles (NATO codenamed SS-26) 

have a range of 500 kilometers (see map).

The Iskander’s transfer to the KALININGRAD enclave in the BALTIC SEA in 2015, putting it in range of Central and WESTERN EUROPE, was a mark of heightened tensions with the West over RUSSIA’S intervention in UKRAINE.

MISSILE DEPLOYMENT – A GAME CHANGER IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Its deployment in SYRIA, amid a bloody five-year civil war, is a game changer in terms of the balance of strength in the MIDDLE EAST. Its range - from the RUSSIAN HMEIMIM base in western SYRIA - covers all of ISRAEL up to the southern town of BEERSHEBA, points in TURKEY up to the outskirts of ANKARA and the eastern and central MEDITERRANEAN including CYPRUS.

The RUSSIAN decision to scale down its forces in SYRIA was only part of the picture: Warplanes and bombers are being pulled out, but as fast as they leave, they are being replaced by the most advanced missile systems in the RUSSIAN arsenal.

On March 15, MOSCOW announced that the formidable S-400 ground-to-air missiles would stay in SYRIA after the withdrawal. Ten days later, on March 25, the Iskander-M systems were in place. The Iskander-M is rated the top short-range ballistic missile in the world.

The combination, say DEBKAfile’s military sources, makes the HMEIMIM base the hub of the most sophisticated missiles in the MIDDLE EAST.

Its mobile launching vehicle carries two missiles. It only takes a few minutes to prepare them for launch; each may be fired separately. In flight, its operating team can retarget the weapon, adjusting it if necessary to hit  moving targets such as missile launchers, tank columns or supply convoys.

Image: DEBKAfile's 

Another special feature of the Iskander-M is the control of its warhead by an encoded radio signal that even UAVs or AWACS cannot intercept. The missile can therefore lock on the target without being shot down. The missile’s computer receives an image of the target, locks on it and zooms toward the target at supersonic speed.

The Iskander-M is adaptable for use against small or large targets and can easily evade air defense batteries. Its targets can be set by satellites, surveillance planes, intelligence mechanisms or even field soldiers directing artillery fire from images scanned to their computers. Furthermore, its independent navigation system is not affected by poor weather conditions, including fog or darkness, like other ballistic missiles. It is moreover almost impossible to pre-empt the launch of the Iskander-M due to the mobility of its launching system.

US ELECTIONS - NOTE TO CONSPIRACY THEORISTS

THE NEO-CONSERVATIVES AREN’T ZIONISTS

The betting markets on the AMERICAN primary elections show an 87% probability that HILLARY CLINTON will head the Democratic ticket and a 76% probability that DONALD TRUMP will lead the Republicans.

Between the two, TRUMP is the pro-ISRAEL candidate. First, his daughter IVANKA is an observant Orthodox Jew after her conversion and marriage to JARED KUSHNER, the scion of a prominent family of Jewish philanthropists. Second, and most decisive, TRUMP feels no obligation to win favor among Muslims, proposing a temporary ban against any Muslim entering the UNITED STATES.

HILLARY CLINTON, by contrast, surrounded herself with advisers openly hostile to ISRAEL and pondered covert funding for PALESTINIAN civil disobedience to pressure the Israeli government.

NEO-CONSERVATIVES PREFER HILLARY CLINTON

Rarely have AMERICANS had such a clear choice between pro-ISRAEL and not-so-pro-ISRAEL candidates. Remarkably, the neo-conservatives prefer HILLARY CLINTON. That should confuse the conspiracy theorists. A Google search produces 400,000 hits for the search terms “neoconservative” and “Zionist.” Yet the leading neo-conservatives say they won’t vote for TRUMP under any circumstances, and one prominent neocon, ROBERT KAGAN, has already declared for HILLARY against TRUMP.

BILL KRISTOL, the editor of the Weekly Standard and head of the Emergency Committee for ISRAEL, has declared that he would never vote for TRUMP under any circumstances, and so has long-time Republican official PETER WEHNER. KRISTOL has said that he won’t support HILLARY, but threatens to mount a third-party effort if TRUMP is nominated–which would draw Republican votes away from TRUMP and help CLINTON.

TRUMP AND PUTIN – COMRADES IN ARMS

Remarkably, KRISTOL’S Emergency Committee for ISRAEL is running a TV ad denouncing TRUMP for “kissing up to anti - AMERICAN dictators”–an unusual use of funds by an organization founded to support ISRAEL rather than support particular candidates, and especially unusual when it is directed against a pro-ISRAEL candidate. TRUMP notoriously has said that AMERICA could work with RUSSIA’S VLADIMIR PUTIN against terrorists, and argued that toppling SADDAM HUSSEIN and MUAMMAR QADDAFI benefited the terrorists. One cannot quite say that TRUMP paints with a broad brush; rather, he throws the bucket of paint against the wall. But the neo-conservatives’ defining dogma is to undermine dictators and promote democracy.

TRUMP’S view is closer to that of the ISRAELI consensus. ISRAEL is pragmatic, generally preferring the ARAB dictatorships to the chaos that replaced them. ISRAEL’S relations with RUSSIA are complex but generally good, especially in operational matters in SYRIA.

Background Information: ISRAEL 

Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote in June 2012: ISRAEL’S INTERESTS

click here to read entire article on subject matter: 

ISRAEL PREFERS THE ASSAD REGIME TO CONTINUE, FOR IT IS A KNOWN ENTITY

……..This is almost certainly because the ISRAELI Prime Minister would, on balance, prefer the Assad regime to continue; it is a known quantity and any new regime could severely destabilize the effective balance-of-power between two uneasy neighbors’………… 

For the most part, TRUMP is exactly correct. The LIBYAN adventure, backed vociferously by the neo-conservatives as well as the OBAMA Administration, turned LIBYA into a Petrie dish for terrorists. Imposing SHIA majority rule in IRAQ under the BUSH administration turned IRAQ into an IRANIAN satrapy. Overthrowing SADDAM HUSSEIN as such was not the problem; marginalizing IRAQ’S SUNNIS prepared the ground for ISIS. RUSSIA has far more to worry about from Islamic terrorism than the UNITED STATES, and in theory might cooperate with WASHINGTON even while opposing US interests in other spheres.

At the peak of their influence in 2004, BILL KRISTOL and Washington Post columnist CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER helped draft GEORGE W. BUSH’S Second Inaugural address, with its vision of global democracy under AMERICAN tutelage. Since then, everything has gone pear-shaped. The prominence of DONALD TRUMP as well as Sen. TED CRUZ in part reflects the Republican Party’s disgust with the neo-conservatives’ ideologically-driven adventures. The Republican Party has rejected the neo-conservatives, whose candidate, MARCO RUBIO, has a 15% chance of getting the nomination according to the IOWA Futures Market vs. 76% for TRUMP. In return, the neo-conservatives have rejected the Republican Party.

NEO-CONSERVATIVES THE CULT OF RATIONALISM

ASIAN observers try to understand AMERICAN politics in rational terms.

When the chips are down, the neo-conservative movement has nothing to do with AMERICAN power, or with MIDEAST oil, or with ISRAEL.

It is a cult that believes that democratic institutions as such are the solution to the world’s problems, and will continue to believe this no matter how much evidence accumulates to the contrary. It is a well-defined cult, with a network of academic gurus and a standard literature, including (but not limited) to the late Prof. LEO STRAUSS. Like all cults, it bands together to defend its illusions against its enemies, even if those enemies are friends of ISRAEL. One might call the neo-conservatives the Cult of Rationalism. That is, they are obsessed by an irrational faith in rationalism, and will do manifestly irrational things to defend their obsession from the cruel depredations of the real world. They are also willing to throw ISRAEL interests under the bus.

Many make no secret of their dislike for DONALD TRUMP. They object to his demagoguery about immigration. Though this doesn’t prevent on from conceding that he is right about some things, for example, the blunders of the neo-conservatives.

CLINTON CLAN

If CLINTON runs against TRUMP, political observers predict that many US citizens will vote for TRUMP, without a second’s hesitation, and for two reasons. First, as PETER SCHWEIZER reported in his book CLINTON CASH, the CLINTONS are a criminal enterprise, selling AMERICA favor to benefit Third World kleptocrats and their comprador cronies in return for 8-figure donations to the CLINTON Foundation and fat payoffs in speaking fees and other forms.

THE USA IS FOUNDED ON IDEAS RATHER THAN COMMON LANGUAGE AND ETHNICITY

TRUMP is a sharp-elbowed businessman who knows how to work the system for political favors, but he’s not a criminal. Second, TRUMP is more pro-ISRAEL, and that’s a key issue for more AMERICANS than one might think. ISRAEL is not only AMERICA’S key ally in a dodgy part of the world, but the cornerstone on which the edifice of the AMERICAN republic was founded in the first place. In a July 2015 essay for the JEWISH media, the author asked, “Will ISRAEL Save AMERICA?” The destiny of AMERICANS–the “almost chosen people” in LINCOLN’S words–is bound up with the destiny of ISRAEL.

ASIAN observers should try to understand that AMERICANS can be crazy. That they are a nation founded on ideas rather than common language and ethnicity, and when they get the wrong idea, they go right off the rails. The decline of AMERICAN power under the BUSH and OBAMA administrations is not the result of grand historical forces or sociological trends. It’s the result of ideological silliness on a grand scale.

Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from the original article written by David P. GOLDMAN via Asia Times 

ISRAEL FOR INDEPENDENT KURDISH STATE

‘TIME TO HELP THEM’: ISRAELI JUSTICE MINISTER CALLS FOR INDEPENDENT KURDISH STATE

ISRAELI Justice Minister AYELET SHAKED has spoken out in favor of an independent KURDISH state. She also urged increased cooperation between ISRAEL and the KURDISH people. SHAKED sees this as an opportunity to weaken ISRAEL’S rivals in the region.

“We must openly call for the establishment of a KURDISH state that separates IRAN from TURKEY,    one which will be friendly towards ISRAEL,” SHAKED told the annual INSS security conference in TEL AVIV, as cited by the TIMES OF ISRAEL.

More precisely, SHAKED proposed the new state be founded between TURKEY, ISRAEL and IRAQ.

KURDS, BIGGEST NATION WITHOUT A STATE

The minister stressed that ISRAEL should “promote steps that would correct the injustice that [made KURDS] the biggest nation without a state,” BasNews reported. She also emphasized that “the KURDS are an ancient people with thousands of years of history, and a democratic nation” – one that has “never attacked any other nation.”

Kurdistan - strategic advantage for Israel 

For SHAKED, this isn’t just about driving a regional wedge between all the countries that could not accommodate a separate KURDISH state.

 “The KURDISH people are a partner for the ISRAELI people,” she continued, adding that ISLAMIST extremism in the region is something both the KURDS and ISRAELIS can work together on combatting. “We KURDS and JEWS have a long history. We have common interests in trying to stop DAESH [ISLAMIC STATE/IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL] and the KURDS are fighting ISIS with all their might.”

BUSINESS AND MILITARY COOPERATION EXISTS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE SEMI-AUTONOMOUS KURDISH REGION IN IRAQ

Also speaking at the INSS was its current director and former major general AMOS YADLIN. He stressed that the “20 million KURDS who didn’t get a state, and nobody takes care of” are the only ones who are serious about defeating ISIS. “[The] KURDS are the only ones fighting ISIS as their highest priority.”

Although there was always implicit support from the ISRAELIS for a free KURDISH state, there are no official diplomatic ties between the two peoples. However, reports claim that visible business and military cooperation exists between ISRAEL and the semi-autonomous KURDISH region in IRAQ.

In 2014, Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU also advocated the creation of an independent KURDISTAN.

IRAQI KURDS continue to call for freedom, and KURDS also make up 10 percent of SYRIA’S population. They are the largest ethnic minority in TURKEY,   where they have been immersed in bloody confrontation with the government of RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN.

Related Article:

TURKEY WILL TAKE MILITARYACTION IF THE SYRIAN KURDS MAKE MOVES TOWARD AUTONOMY

MIDDLE EAST ON ALERT: HIZBALLAH ATTACK IMMINENT, THUS USHERING IN THE NEW YEAR WITH A NEW WHIRLWIND

Credit: Chris Kotsiopoulos / www.greeksky.gr

IDF, RUSSIAN, IRANIAN FORCES ON WAR ALERT FOR HIZBALLAH ATTACK ON ISRAEL – AND BACKLASH

Via DEBKAfile’s

The IDF and all of the armies involved in the SYRIAN civil war, namely those of RUSSIA, SYRIA and IRAN, went on their highest war alert on Thursday, Dec. 31 when all their intelligence organizations reported that HASSAN NASRALLAH could not be stopped from attacking ISRAEL, in revenge for the assassination of SAMIR QUNTAR in DAMASCUS on December 20.

More than one intermediary visited BEIRUT to avert the HIZBALLAH attack and its deadly fallout, including a former senior officer of the GERMAN BND foreign intelligence service. According to DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources, GERHARD CONRAD, late of the BND and incumbent director of the EUROPEAN UNION’S INTELLIGENCE AND SITUATIONCENTER,  was given this urgent mission by Chancellor ANGELA MERKEL. 

He came away from a meeting with NASRALLAH on Dec. 29, with the news that the HIZBALLAH chief was not open to persuasion and the attack was already underway.

CONRAD has excellent connections in the ARAB world, especially in SYRIA and LEBANON. Seven years ago, he acted as intermediary between ISRAEL and HIZBALLAH for negotiating the recovery of the bodies of two fallen IDF soldiers, ELDAD REGEV and EHUD GOLDWASSER, in exchange for the handover of that same HIZBALLAH high-up SAMIR QUNTAR and other jailed and convicted ARAB terrorists.

HIZBALLAH DETERMINED ON REPRISAL 

The GERMAN spy-diplomat then established personal connections with a shadowy figure, WAFIK SAFA, who is in charge of HIZBALLAH’S intelligence and security network and a close crony of NASRALLAH.

CONRAD used those connections again in 2011 to broker the release of GILEAD SHALIT from HAMAS captivity.

It was SAFA he arranged for him to meet NASRALLAH in BEIRUT Tuesday. He found the HIZBALLAH chief unshakeable in his determination to make ISRAEL pay for QUNTAR’S death, even at the cost of a painful backlash against the SHIITE group's terrorists in SYRIA and LEBANON.

He was unmoved by the warning issued by ISRAEL’S chief of staff, Lieut. Gen. GADY EISENKOTT, on Monday, just hours before the CONRAD mission.  EISENKOTT said, “Just as we have proven in the past, we know how to strike anyone who wishes to harm us. Our enemies know they will suffer grave consequences if they try to undermine our security.”

Upon receipt of the GERMAN emissary’s report on the meeting, EISENKOTT, his deputy, Maj. Gen. YAIR GOLAN, and OC Northern Command, Maj. Gen. AVIV KOCHAVI, inspected the preparedness of the IDF’s northern border defenses for all contingencies.

SURPRISE ATTACK IMMINENT – HIZBALLAH TAKING ADVANTAGE OF STORMY WEATHER FORECAST IN THE LEVANT

They took into account a scenario, whereby NASRALLAH would take advantage of the stormy weather forecast for the weekend in SYRIA, LEBANON and ISRAEL, to strike ISRAEL, in the knowledge that the heavy rain and snow would impede ISRAELI air force activity and give the HIZBALLAH operation a tactical edge.

RUSSIAN military and IRANIAN Revolutionary Guard forces in SYRIA have taken into account that a HIZBALLAH attack will not go unanswered by ISRAEL and that the IDF would most likely hit back at HIZBALLAH on SYRIAN soil, thus ushering in the New Year with a new whirlwind.