ISLAMIC STATE SETS ITS SIGHTS ON SAUDI ARABIA

TO TOPPLE THE THRONE - PRIME OBJECTIVE OF IS?

The meteoric rise of the ISLAMIC STATE of IRAQ and SYRIA, which has since styled itself the ISLAMIC STATE in an affirmation of its broader aspirations of dominion over a self-declared caliphate beyond the territories where it exercises control, has aggravated the MIDDLE EAST’S already treacherous geopolitical landscape. Having emerged out of conflict and instability in Iraq and SYRIA, the ISLAMIC STATE has arguably matched or otherwise exceeded the capabilities of fellow extremist groups such as AL-QAEDA, its regional affiliates and other violent ISLAMIST organizations.

Background Information:

SAUDI ARABIA’S CONCERNS THAT THE KINGDOM MAY BE THE ISLAMIC STATE’S NEXT TARGET

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/08/isis-saudi-arabias-concerns-that.html

ISLAMIC STATE IS ON SAUDI ARABIA’S DOORSTEP

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/09/saudi-arabia-islamic-state-between-iraq.html

Despite its recent setbacks—notably in SYRIA’S KURDISH-majority town of KOBANE (a.k.a. AYN AL-ARAB), located in the northern ALEPPO province—the ISLAMIC STATE has demonstrated an impressive ability to capture, control and consolidate its hold on territory and sustain its insurgent and support cadres. It also operates a sophisticated information and propaganda wing that exploits social media as a force multiplier alongside its scorched earth campaign. It has also drawn support from independent sympathizers and ideological allies throughout the broader MIDDLE EAST and around globe—including among locally focused extremist factions in AFGHANISTAN, ALGERIA, EGYPT, LIBYA, PAKISTAN and YEMEN. These attributes are reminiscent of AL-QAEDA’S at the pinnacle of its influence. 

However, they also reflect the simmering competition between the ISLAMIC STATE and its AL-QAEDA precursor as well as the latter’s regional affiliates such as JABHAT AL-NUSRA. The ISLAMIC STATE’S increasingly strident discourse and threats also illustrate its rising ambitions; in addition to confronting the incumbent regimes in IRAQ and SYRIA and rival militants and insurgents, the ISLAMIC STATE has ambitious set of goals that include challenging SAUDI ARABIA.

ISLAMIC STATE IS APPLYING MORE AGGRESSIVE THREAT POSTURE TOWARD SAUDI ARABIA

The ISLAMIC STATE today represents the latest and potentially most complex set of challenges to SAUDI ARABIA, which had previously drawn the ire of AL-QAEDA and its regional affiliate AL-QAEDA in the ARABIAN PENINSULA (AQAP). Due to the recent death of King ABDULLAH BIN ABDULAZIZ AL-SAUD and the succession of King SALMAN BIN ABDULAZIZ AL-SAUD, the ISLAMIC STATE’S rise also comes amid a period of heightened domestic and regional uncertainty. 

This article will examine the ISLAMIC STATE’S escalating threats toward SAUDI ARABIA, which suggest, alongside other recent trends, that the ISLAMIC STATE is employing a steadily more aggressive threat posture toward SAUDI ARABIA that is likely to foreshadow future attacks and intensifying pressures.

Background Information: SAUDI ARABIA AND IS

SAUDI ARABIA AFTER ABDULLAH

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2015/01/saudi-arabia-next-geopolitical-tsunami.html

 ISIS: SAUDI ARABIA - THE PUPPET MASTER OF ISIS?

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2014/12/isis-saudi-arabia-puppet-master-of-isis.html

WHO IS BEHIND THE CALIPHATE PROJECT?

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2014/09/who-is-behind-caliphate-project.html 

The ISLAMIC STATE’S leader (and self-style caliph) ABU BAKR AL-BAGHDADI singled out SAUDI ARABIA in an audio statement titled “Even if the Disbelievers Despise Such,” released by the group’s AL-FURQAN Media Foundation on November 13, 2014. In his statement, AL-BAGHDADI extolled what he describes as the purported expansion of the ISLAMIC STATE to the “lands of AL-HARAMEIN” (two holy places) in addition to YEMEN, EGYPT, LIBYA and ALGERIA, through its acceptance of oaths of allegiance sworn by local militants to the self-styled caliphate.

AL-BAGHDADI’S mention of AL-HARAMEIN is notable in that it reflects the radical Islamist proclivity for avoiding any reference to SAUDI ARABIA by name and, by implication, any indirect recognition of the legitimacy of the SAUDI royal family, instead highlighting ISLAM’S two holiest sites at MECCA and MEDINA. AL-BAGHDADI also proclaimed the appointment of regional governors to represent the ISLAMIC STATE and called on followers in SAUDI ARABIA and beyond to recognize and follow their leadership. 

AL-BAGHDADI issued a categorical call to arms: He referred to the SAUDI royal family as “the serpent’s head” and the “stronghold of the disease,” and implored his SAUDI subjects to attack the “AL-SALOUL” and “their soldiers.” The reference to AL-SALOUL represents a derogatory distortion of the AL-SAUD family name; in ISLAMIC tradition, the AL-SALOUL family guarded the then-pagan holy site of the KAABA at MECCA during the pre-Islamic period.

He also implored his followers to attack polytheists and rafidah (rejectionists), an inflammatory label often assigned to SHI’A MUSLIMS by extreme SALAFISTS and other hardline SUNNI ISLAMISTS, in an apparent reference to the kingdom’s substantial SHI’A minority population. AL-BAGHDADI then issued an appeal for “patience” and reassured his followers in the kingdom that the “vanguards of the ISLAMIC STATE are on their way”.

“ISLAMIC STATE’S FLAG WILL FLY OVER MECCA AND MEDINA.”

The subsequent release of the fifth edition of DABIQ, the ISLAMIC STATE’S official magazine, in November 2014 by its affiliated AL-HAYAT Media Center, followed up AL-BAGHDADI’S earlier de facto declaration of war against the House of SAUD. The cover of the magazine is emblazoned with a photograph of the KAABA at MECCA, while the foreword proclaims that the ISLAMIC STATE’S flag will “fly over MECCA and MEDINA.” 

IS supporter in Mecca

It is also emphasized that SAUDI militants should take up arms at home and avoid traveling to battlefields abroad. A section devoted to SAUDI ARABIA exalts the efforts of earlier generations of militants who resisted and attacked the monarchy, including AL-QAEDA and its regional affiliate AQAP, while at the same time lamenting their failure to achieve their objectives.

Background Information:

FOMENTING A SECTARIAN BACKLASH COULD PLAY RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF IS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/11/overcoming-isis-transcending-sectarian.html

IS APPARENTLY ALSO DECLARED WAR AGAINST THE GULF MONARCHIES (GCC)

Equally important, the ISLAMIC STATE declares its opposition to SAUDI’S fellow PERSIAN GULF monarchies in an apparent declaration of war against SAUDI ARABIA’S allies in the GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC). A section of the magazine dedicated to the group’s activities in YEMEN emphasizes the proximity between SAUDI- and YEMEN-based ISLAMIC STATE loyalists and their potential to cooperate in launching attacks in the ARABIAN PENINSULA.

An incursion by militants who had infiltrated SAUDI ARABIA’S northeastern town of ARAR, located in the Northern Borders province that sits adjacent to IRAQ’S southern border, on January 5 underlines the potential threat the ISLAMIC STATE poses to the kingdom. While details surrounding the incident remain murky, a band of IRAQ-based insurgents reportedly associated with the ISLAMIC STATE is said to have penetrated SAUDI territory and engaged a SAUDI border police post.

Background Information:

THE QATARI PROJECT: “DESTROYING SAUDI ARABIA”?

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/saudi-arabia-and-qatar.html

The attackers are reported to have employed small unit ambush tactics and a suicide bomber, who detonated his explosives-laden vest while offering to surrender to a senior SAUDI security officer, killing himself and the officer. The ensuing incident left three border officers and four militants dead. The Northern Borders province is located alongside IRAQ’S ANBAR province, a key locus of support for the ISLAMIC STATE that is hotly contested between the ISLAMIC STATE and IRAQI security forces. The SAUDI authorities have also linked the November 2014 murder of a DANISH national in the capital RIYADH following the release of a video purportedly recorded by the perpetrators who claimed responsibility for the attack. An attack that targeted SHI’A worshippers, who had gathered to commemorate ASHURA, in AL-HASA in the kingdom’s Eastern province has also been attributed to the ISLAMIC STATE. SAUDI authorities are also reported to have disrupted numerous militant cells linked to the ISLAMIC STATE.

GEOPOLITICS OF THE PALACE

A consideration of SAUDI ARABIA’S geopolitical significance is critical to appreciate the nature of the threats the ISLAMIC STATE poses to the kingdom. In many respects, the factors that have compelled the ISLAMIC STATE to confront SAUDI ARABIA echo those that had originally induced AL-QAEDA to take on the monarchy. Much like other entrenched authoritarian regimes in the MIDDLE EAST that have drawn AL-QAEDA’S fury over the years, SAUDI ARABIA is despised by the ISLAMIC STATE for what it sees as its pervasive corruption, strategic relationship with the UNITED STATES and illegitimate position as the custodian of MECCA and MEDINA.

In this regard, the ISLAMIC STATE, much like AL-QAEDA, views the SAUDI royal family as an agent of U.S. imperialism that is bent on the domination and subjugation of the ARAB and ISLAMIC world. Its status as the world’s largest exporter of oil, and second-largest oil producer, adds another layer of complexity that is surely not lost on the ISLAMIC STATE. 

In this regard, AL-QAEDA’S earlier targeting of strategic energy infrastructure, including its February 2006 operation against the ABQAIQ oil refinery—one of the world’s largest—may provide valuable insights into the ISLAMIC STATE’S tactical calculus with respect to prospective targets inside the kingdom. The circumstances surrounding the 1979 seizure of the Grand Mosque in MECCA by militants, led by JUHAYMAN AL-OTAIBI, who were violently opposed to the SAUDI monarchy, may also offer a glimpse into the ISLAMIC STATE’S plans for the kingdom.

IS OBJECTIVE IS TO SUCCEED WHERE IT’S AL-QAEDA PREDECESSOR PREVIOUSLY FAILED

IS and AL -QAEDA split

For AL-QAEDA, the prospect of toppling or otherwise destabilizing the throne represented the apex of achievement in its broader struggle. The often-overlooked fact that a number of AL-QAEDA notables, including its late founder and leader OSAMA BIN LADEN, arose out of the domestic political opposition in SAUDI ARABIA, serves as a testament to the hatred the SAUDI royal family has incurred within extreme ISLAMIST circles. It is reasonable to assume that SAUDI ARABIA also figures prominently in the ISLAMIC STATE’S vision for the wider region even as it is preoccupied with its multiple front insurgent campaign in IRAQ and SYRIA. The ISLAMIC STATE’S ongoing rivalry with AL-QAEDA and its regional affiliates has also likely elevated the Kingdom’s importance as the ISLAMIC STATE may sense an opportunity to succeed where its AL-QAEDA predecessor previously failed. SAUDI ARABIA’S declared opposition to the ISLAMIC STATE, its support for rival SYRIAN insurgent factions such as the ISLAMIC FRONT and others and its participation in the U.S.-led coalition against the ISLAMIC STATE have likewise elevated its stature as a target.

COUNTERMEASURES

SAUDI ARABIA has taken numerous steps to mitigate the threat posed by the ISLAMIC STATE. In the realm of ideas, it has attempted to rein in members of its religious establishment, including over the solicitation of funds for aid and relief in SYRIA and prohibiting outright any attempts by SAUDIS to join the conflict in SYRIA or engage in other un-sanctioned activities abroad. In doing so, the Kingdom leveraged the Council of Senior Scholars, the country’s highest religious body. While these efforts predate the rise of the ISLAMIC STATE, they demonstrate mounting concerns in the palace over events in SYRIA and their impact on the SAUDI population.

WAHHABIST AND SALAFIST IDEOLOGIES VERSUS IS “WORLDVIEWS”?

These efforts have yielded mixed results, as some prominent clergy have deviated from the official line on how to approach the situation in SYRIA. More importantly, SAUDI volunteers also continue to stream into SYRIA and other battlefields in large numbers to take up arms alongside various insurgent factions. There is a great deal of sympathy among SAUDIS for the plight of SYRIANS and a deep antipathy toward a secular BAATHIST regime that is viewed by many as heretical and apostate. 

An additional challenge is that the ultraconservative forms of WAHHABIST and SALAFIST ideologies propagated by SAUDI ARABIA’S religious establishment— in many respects, SAUDI ARABIA is the wellspring of these ideas—are hard to distinguish from the worldviews being espoused by the ISLAMIC STATE. The ISLAMIC STATE’S dramatic expansion has nevertheless provoked the Kingdom to engage with its population in the ideological arena. Most recently, SAUDI ARABIA’S Grand Mufti, SHAYKH ABD AL-AZIZ AL-ASHAYKH, has spearheaded a campaign that aims to enlist media and educational institutions in combating the ISLAMIC STATE’S appeal.

Background Information: WAHHABIS AND SAUDI ARABIA

THE THEOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL PACT BETWEEN THE SAUD CLAN AND THE WAHHABISTS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/saudi-arabia-origin-of-wahhabism.html

ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL

Meanwhile, in the realm of physical security, the kingdom has embarked on an ambitious project to construct an approximately 600-mile-long security wall on sections of its northern border with IRAQ. The wall is designed to prevent militants from infiltrating SAUDI territory. The kingdom has resorted to a similar strategy in an attempt to insulate itself from the expanding violence and instability that has overtaken its southern neighbor YEMEN, building approximately 1,000-mile-long wall along its border with YEMEN. Meanwhile, SAUDI ARABIA’S security forces have also continued to make mass arrests of suspected militants in an apparent effort to disrupt suspected domestic extremist activities associated with the ISLAMIC STATE and potentially other violent ISLAMIST organizations.

CONCLUSION

In contrast to the chaos of IRAQ and SYRIA and other conflict-ridden zones in the broader MIDDLE EAST where the ISLAMIC STATE has gained a foothold, SAUDI ARABIA, upon first glance, represents an impermissible environment for staging and launching militant activities. The ISLAMIC STATE’S particular brand of brutality has also galvanized opposition to its expansion and influence, including among rival militants wary of its tactics and other actions in IRAQ, SYRIA and elsewhere. This is best illustrated by the losses it has incurred in recent months and the growing divide between its community of supporters and those of rival organizations. At the same time, there are no indications to suggest that these setbacks will impact its ambitions to follow in the footsteps of its AL-QAEDA precursor and lead a campaign to topple the SAUDI monarchy.

By: Chris Zambelis via The Jamestown Foundation

More Background Information on SAUDI ARABIA:

THE QUIET WAR IN SAUDI ARABIA

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/food-for-thought_19.html  

SAUDI KING WILL NOT GRANT ANY CONCESSIONS TO THE 8% SHIA POPULATION

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/saudi-arabias-proxy-war.html

SAUDI ARABIAN INTELLIGENCE HEADQUARTERS BLASTED

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/07/saudi-arabian-intelligence-headquarters.html

SALAFI ISLAMIZATION

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/11/islamic-state-and-khurasan.html

SYRIA – ASSAD

SYRIA'S ASSAD, 'THE MAN WHO CAN DELIVER A MIDDLE EAST SOLUTION'

SYRIA'S envoy to the UNITED NATIONS says it's time for the UNITED STATES and other WESTERN powers to accept that President BASHAR AL-ASSAD is here to stay, and to abandon what he suggested was a failed strategy of trying to split the MIDDLE EAST into sectarian enclaves.

Speaking to Reuters on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the SYRIAN war, ASSAD'S long-serving UN ambassador BASHAR JA'AFARI said his president was ready to work with the UNITED STATES and others to combat terrorism in the MIDDLE EAST.

More Background Information on SYRIA :

ASSAD WINNING THE WAR

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/02/syria-assad-winning-war.html

ASSAD FIRM IN THE SADDLE (January 2013)

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/01/syria-assad-firm-in-saddle.html

SYRIAN REGIME LIKELY TO SURVIVE UPRAISE (June 2011)

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/06/syrian-regime-likely-to-survive-upraise.html

THE SYRIAN EQUATION

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html

ASSAD FIRMLY IN CHARGE IN SYRIA (March 2012)

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syria.html

"We don't want any vacuum in the country that would create chaos such as happened in LIBYA and IRAQ and ... AFGHANISTAN," he said. "President ASSAD can deliver because he is a strong president. He rules over a strong institution, which is the SYRIAN army. He has resisted pressure for four years."

"He is the man who can deliver any solution," he added.

WESTERN STANCE ON SYRIA AND ASSAD ABOUT TO PIVOT?

BRITAIN and FRANCE have rejected calls to restore ties with the ASSAD government. US officials say there is no shift in their policy regarding ASSAD, even as their focus is fighting ISLAMIC STATE, an AL QAEDA offshoot which is also an enemy of DAMASCUS.

"We have been open for cooperation (with the US)," JA’AFARI said. "They don't want it."

Some EUROPEAN UNION countries that withdrew their ambassadors from SYRIA are saying privately it is time for more communication with DAMASCUS, diplomats said in February.

Diplomats say the calls have come from or would be supported by countries including SWEDEN, DENMARK, ROMANIA, BULGARIA, AUSTRIA and SPAIN, as well as the CZECH REPUBLIC, which did not withdraw its ambassador. NORWAY and SWITZERLAND, which are outside the EU, are also supportive.

Such countries say that the threat from ISLAMIC STATE has made ASSAD the lesser of two evils, seeing a need to re-engage with DAMASCUS as a potential ally against the extremists, according to the diplomats. US officials at the UNITED NATIONS did not have an immediate comment on JA'AFARI'S latest statements.

Background Information:

ISRAEL PREFERS THE ASSAD REGIME TO CONTINUE, FOR IT IS A KNOWN ENTITY

Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote in June 2012: ISRAEL’S INTERESTS

……..This is almost certainly because the ISRAELI Prime Minister would, on balance, prefer the Assad regime to continue; it is a known quantity and any new regime could severely destabilize the effective balance-of-power between two uneasy neighbors’………… read entire analysis at:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-feasts-and-rites-of-confusion.html  

They noted recent comments to the Security Council by WASHINGTON'S UN ambassador SAMANTHA POWER rejecting the argument that countries should partner with DAMASCUS to more effectively fight extremists.

The UNITED STATES and other WESTERN powers have condemned ASSAD for widespread human rights violations since the uprising against his government began in 2011.

But JA'AFARI insisted that keeping ASSAD, who was re-elected last year in a poll his foes regard as illegitimate, was the only path to peace and unity. JA'AFARI said that "many EUROPEAN delegations" had visited DAMASCUS to ask for strengthened anti-terrorism cooperation, without specifying which countries.

US CONCEPT OF TRAINING “MODERATE REBELS” IN SYRIA SEEMS SOMEWHAT LUDICROUS  

"We are telling everyone ... if you want this cooperation to be fruitful you need to get back to SYRIA, to reopen your embassies."

Background Information:

EX-CIA CHIEF: ASSAD WIN MAY BE SYRIA'S BEST OPTION

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/12/syria.html

Indicating that DAMASCUS wants ASSAD restored to international political legitimacy in exchange for security cooperation, JA'AFARI said that "the benefit of such cooperation should be mutual ... not only unilateral."

He blasted US President BARACK OBAMA'S strategy of training and arming what he described as "so-called moderate" rebels, saying it had only served to deliver weapons into the hands of ISLAMIC STATE. The training of rebels has proven difficult.

The HAZZM movement was once central to a covert CIA operation to arm SYRIAN rebels, but the group's collapse last week underlined the failure of efforts to unify ARAB and WESTERN support for mainstream insurgents.

"This is not a SYRIAN conflict," JA'AFARI said.

"It is an international terror war waged against the SYRIAN government and the SYRIAN people," he added, referring to the tens of thousands of foreign fighters who have joined ISLAMIC STATE and other jihadist group in the country.

AUSTRIA

Austrian Catering Company Accused of Discriminating Against Hungarian Employees by Nicolas Krotz

ÖBB train in Vienna. Photo: ÖBB/Bönsch. Do & Co. AG, an Austrian catering company, has been accused of paying its Hungarian staff one third of what it pays Austrian citizens for the same jobs. The employees work on trains operated by the Austrian state railway company making trips between countries in central Europe. The catering staff are employed by two different subsidiaries of Do & Co., which is headquartered in Vienna. Both are named Henry am Zug (HAZ), but one is based in Austria and and the other is based in Hungary. The parent company generated revenues of €636 million ($720 million) last year from its operations which include running bars, restaurants and hotels in multiple countries, as well as providing catering services for airlines, trains and international sporting events. In April 2012 Do & Co. was awarded a catering contract for Österreichische Bundesbahnen (ÖBB) to supply drinks and food on about 160 long distance trains in central Europe. The company employs about 600 staff of whom 100 are employed by HAZ in Hungary. The Hungarian staff receive a monthly salary of €500 ($570) after tax while Austrias staff receive between €1200 and €1500 a month ($1368 to $1710).  “Eighty percent of the time we work outside Hungary for a 100 percent Hungarian salary,” Kati Fossi, a HAZ Hungary employee and works council representative, told Profil, an Austrian weekly magazine. (Many European companies have works councils who negotiate working conditions with the management. They often exist in parallel with unions but do not replace them.) “Hungarian workers have been tricked out of their money for years,” Gerhard Tauchner, a union activist with Vida, the Austrian transport and service union, told Profil. Do & Co. claims that Hungarian employees only work on trains that depart or end in Budapest. But an investigative report published last month by Netzwerk Soziale Verantwortung (NeSoVe), an Austrian activist coalition on corporate justice, alleged that workers employed by the Hungarian subsidiary were found working on a train that was traveling from Zurich in Switzerland to Vienna. Allegations of malpractice on ÖBB trains have been made in the past. Union activists have also accused E-Express, the previous catering contractor, of underpaying Hungarian workers and forcing them to work 30 hours a shift. In 2011, former E-Express employees told der Kurier newspaper that their employer hadengaged in tax fraud; used malfunctioning refrigeration units and water tanks; and forced employees to serve expired food to customers. When the train catering contract was put out to bid in 2012, Do & Co. beat E-Express by submitting a lower bid. E-Express then sold their catering subsidiary - which was called Foom - to Do & Co. Foom was renamed Henry am Zug but it continued to employ most of the same staff. But by late 2012, Henry am Zug employees began to complain to the media about working conditions. The employees said that they were forced to work up to 10 hours without a break and were not provided with recreation rooms. Der Standard reported that workers were told that the company would fire them if they did not make enough sales, a complaint that the company denied.  “I don't need this discussion,” Attila Dogudan, the CEO of Do & Co., told der Standard in January 2013. “We do not want to save money by using cheap labor from Hungary.” Instead of paying Hungarian workers more money, he announced, he would replace them with Austrian employees. When Fossi relayed employees’ complaints to the HAZ management, she was laid off for a month in April 2013, despite the fact that one of her tasks was to act as a liaison between management and staff. “They made me understand that I should keep quiet”, Fassi told Profil. Last year, the Austrian Trade Union Federation came to the support of the train workers and set up a complaints hotline for them to report problems. “The wage fraud has to stop,” Helmut Gruber of Vida told Format magazine. The laws governing European workers who are employed in other countries can be complicated. In 1996, a European Union directive stipulated that labor contracts for workers posted abroad should be governed by the laws of the country where they were physically employed, including wage rates, shift lengths and occupational safety. In 2008, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) clarified that host countries had the right to demand that foreign companies pay the local legal minimum wage, but could not require them to pay any more since such a requirement would cause those “undertakings to lose the competitive advantage which they enjoy by reason of their lower wage costs.” That debate continues to this day. Last week, the ECJ allowed a Finish union to intervene on behalf of Polish workers in Finland to demand that their Polish employer pays them the minimum hourly Finnish wage and enjoy equal rights as local workers, after the Polish employer refused to recognize the union’s right to organize the foreign workers. Part of the problem in Austria, however, is that there is no legal minimum wage. Instead 98 percent of jobs are subject to collective bargaining agreements. In recent press statements, Dogudan has claimed that the rules make little sense for employees who work in multiple countries, since “pilots that cross multiple countries would need to be subject to multiple collective bargaining agreements.” But pilots do “have contracts with airlines," Dr. Josef Unterweger, an Austrian labor lawyer, told NeSoVe. "Based on this comparison Mr Dogudan must be supportive of the idea that the servers on the train – just like the ticket inspectors and the railroad engineers – should have a contract with the railway company and be paid by it.”

RUSSIA AND THE EU

RUSSIA BARGES INTO THE EU TENT

Executive Summary: 

• RUSSIAN-CYPRIOT military cooperation
• MIDDLE EASTERN Troika:  GREECE, CYPRUS and RUSSIA 
• MIDDLE EASTERN energy games

The significance of the agreement recently signed in MOSCOW to let RUSSIAN navy ships anchor at ports in CYPRUS may lend itself to exaggerated notions of a military pact between the two countries, which it certainly is not. On the other hand, the profound meaning of the agreement in political terms – and the visit of CYPRIOT President NICOS ANASTASIADES to MOSCOW – cannot be lost on WASHINGTON and the EUROPEAN capitals, especially BRUSSELS where the EUROPEAN UNION is headquartered.

Background Information: Strategic location of Cyprus

CYPRUS AT ODDS WITH BRITAIN OVER SOVEREIGN BASE AREAS AND ITS GEOPOLITICAL IMPACT FOR THE REGION

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/03/cyprus-emerging-geo-strategic-key.html

In strategic terms, the deal doesn’t mean that RUSSIA is about to establish naval bases in CYPRUS. The agreement merely provides legal underpinning to the RUSSIAN navy ships making regular port calls at CYPRUS. In military terms, however, RUSSIAN navy is getting such access on an assured basis at a time when its only maintenance base happens to be TARTUS, SYRIA, which is caught up in deep turmoil with no end in view. Simply put, the BLACK SEA Fleet’s MEDITERRANEAN operations will be on a sound footing with the backup in CYPRUS.

RUSSIAN-CYPRIOT MILITARY COOPERATION

Equally, RUSSIA is establishing military cooperation with a country where BRITAIN maintains a military base. There are reports that CHINA too may be talking with CYPRUS for similar facilities as RUSSIA has secured.

However, much more than RUSSIAN-CYPRIOT military cooperation is involved here. ANASTASIADES’S MOSCOW visit also has a huge geopolitical backdrop where many crosscurrents are at work. For a start, CYPRUS is an EU member country and it is deepening its ties with RUSSIA, which happens to be currently the target of EU sanctions. ANASTASIADES, in fact, has defiantly questioned the rationale of western sanctions against RUSSIA.

CYPRUS has become the second EU member state – after President VLADIMIR PUTIN’S visit to HUNGARY – to publicly display its dissent and resentment regarding the US-sponsored western sanctions against RUSSIA. Like HUNGARY – nay, much more than HUNGARY – CYPRUS has strong reasons to be treasuring its cooperation with RUSSIA.

Around 80% of foreign investment in CYPRUS is RUSSIAN. MOSCOW gave a big hand to help CYPRUS see through its financial crisis – giving a 2.5 billion euro loan in 2011 (and this week cutting its annual interest rate from 4.5% to 2.5% besides extending the redemption period from 2016 to 2018-2021) apart from helping CYPRUS organize successfully its first issue of sovereign CYPRUS Eurobonds since the crisis for 750 million euros. It is estimated that the money flows from RUSSIA to CYPRUS exceeds $200 billion during the period 1994-2011. The quality of the RUSSIAN-CYPRIOT relationship becomes evident in PUTIN’S remarks to the media in Moscow while welcoming ANASTASIADES.

Background Information: CYPRUS AND RUSSIA

CYPRUS FUNCTIONS AS AN OFFSHORE FINANCIAL CENTER FOR RUSSIA,

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/russia-and-cyprus.html  

THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT PROVIDED CYPRUS WITH A LARGE IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN AGAINST A CRISIS SHOULD GREECE DEFAULT

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkey-and-russia.html

MIDDLE EASTERN TROIKA:  GREECE, CYPRUS AND RUSSIA 

The bottom line here is that it will be an uphill task for WASHINGTON in the period ahead to rally the EU member countries behind the US’ containment strategy against RUSSIA. The emergence of a leftist government in GREECE (which mentors CYPRUS), which is credited with strong links to RUSSIAN ideologues, already irritates WASHINGTON. HUNGARY and GREECE also happen to be NATO member countries.

So indeed is TURKEY, which has also edged closer to MOSCOW in the recent years almost in direct proportion to the strains that have appeared in the discourse between WASHINGTON and ANKARA. Indeed, at a closer look, a matrix of great complexity is appearing, which would suggest that snapping the umbilical cords that tie ‘post-SOVIET’ RUSSIA with EUROPE is going to be a Herculean task for the US diplomacy.

This is not for want of trying, as the latest US-backed endeavor by the EU bureaucracy to integrate the bloc’s energy market with the singular intention to ‘centralize’ and control RUSSIA’S energy ties with individual member states testifies. But the short point is that RUSSIA has become an avid globalizer, beating the US in its own game, and it intends to remain that way.

MIDDLE EASTERN ENERGY GAMES

Coming back to the RUSSIAN-CYPRIOT partnership, some other templates of regional politics also need to be noted. First, energy ties. CYPRUS is sitting on vast untapped reserves of natural gas in its offshore fields in the eastern MEDITERRANEAN. RUSSIAN oil companies are hoping to wade into CYPRUS’ energy sector, which is presently dominated by AMERICAN companies. ANASTASIAS has apparently invited RUSSIAN energy companies to move in.

Background Information: ENERGY GAMES IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

ENORMOUS OIL AND GAS FINDINGS IN THE LEVANTINE

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/eastern-mediterranean-sea.html

ENERGY GAMES IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/energy-games-in-eastern-mediterranean.html  

US DOUBLE EGGED SWORD POLICIES ON CYPRUS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html

Now, CYPRUS’ gas fields are contiguous to SYRIA’S economic zone, which also are credited with untapped hydrocarbon reserves. CYPRIOT and ISRAELI gas fields are also overlapping – like QATAR and IRAN. The evacuation of CYPRIOT gas to EUROPE would be an AMERICAN priority with a view to reducing EUROPE’S dependence on RUSSIA. On the other hand, the ideal pipeline route from CYPRUS would be via TURKEY with which CYPRUS has no relations following the occupation of northern CYPRUS by TURKEY in 1974. WASHINGTON is keenly encouraging TURKISH-CYPRIOT reconciliation – talks resumed in early February following a two-year break – but the public opinion in CYPRUS strongly militates against accepting TURKEY’S presence in NORTHERN CYPRUS. The deadlock is difficult to break.

Which would prompt RUSSIA to step in as an energy partner for CYPRUS. RUSSIA is also pressing ahead talks with TURKEY regarding a new gas pipeline via the BLACK SEA (replacing the South Stream which MOSCOW has summarily abandoned) leading to the countries of southeastern EUROPE. Clearly, energy politics of the eastern MEDITERRANEAN region is surging and RUSSIA has a finger in almost every pie.

All in all, having secured a strong position on the ground in UKRAINE, RUSSIA is returning to the world stage to pick the threads where it left them. The recent visit by Putin to EGYPT and ANASTASIADES’S visit to MOSCOW signal that RUSSIAN diplomacy is neither in defensive mode nor is RUSSIA bogged down in a quagmire in UKRAINE.

BALKANIZATION OF DAGESTAN?

DAGESTAN RISKS BECOMING A ‘YUGOSLAVIA IN THE CAUCASUS’

Executive Summary:

• Increasing influence of AZERBAIJAN and CHECHNYA
• “BALKANIZATION” of the CAUCASUS
• RUSSIAN nationalists: “eliminate” DAGESTAN and restore tsarist – era TEREK GUBERNIA
• DAGESTANI ethnic groups do not want to give up their national identities
• Formation of a unified CIRCASSIAN REPUBLIC - a wakeup call for everyone concerned about the region

·       DAGESTAN, the most ethnically complex republic in the NORTH CAUCASUS, faces an ever greater risk that it will disintegrate as YUGOSLAVIA did. This growing danger exists both because of the changing demographics and power relationships within this RUSSIAN federal-level entity and due to the growing influence of DAGESTAN’S two neighboring regions—the country of AZERBAIJAN and the RUSSIAN republic of CHECHNYA—on its peoples. And as was the case with YUGOSLAVIA, the disintegration of DAGESTAN would be not only bloody but would unsettle numerous relationships in the region and EURASIA as a whole.

INCREASING INFLUENCE OF AZERBAIJAN AND CHECHNYA

What makes the YUGOSLAV scenario a possibility in DAGESTAN are the rapidly worsening problems within the republic, most of which are longstanding, as well as the efforts of BAKU and GROZNY to expand their influence. The DAGESTANI neighbors’ moves on the republic certainly have precedents in the past, but are far more significant now given DAGESTAN’S own problems.

The increasing influence of AZERBAIJAN and CHECHNYA reflects the fact that the two have much in common, even though one is an independent state and the other is a subject of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION. Both have tightly-controlled power verticals, both have consolidated elites, and both are animated by a recognition of the need to overcome the results of destruction in a previous war, the first by the use of oil and the second by subsidies from MOSCOW. As a result both have been able to mobilize their societies and boost the authority of those in power.

Background Information: CASPIAN REGION

CASPIAN BASIN: INCREASED FOCAL POINT OF WEST AND EAST

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/09/the-caspian-region-future-war-zone.html

People in DAGESTAN are aware of all those issues and it is in sharp contrast to what they see in their own republic, which remains mired in the past with ethnic groups and clans fighting among themselves for what money there is. DAGESTAN has oil like AZERBAIJAN, but it has not been able to develop it. And the money it receives from MOSCOW is not the basis for its economic development as it is in mono-ethnic CHECHNYA; rather, rubles from the RUSSIAN center have become “an apple of discord” and a source of corruption and internal power struggles.

“BALKANIZATION” OF THE CAUCASUS

In this situation, many groups within DAGESTAN believe that they could do better off if they lived in separate mono-ethnic republics rather than be roped together as they are now. The AZERBAIJANI and CHECHEN Diasporas in the country promote that idea. In part, the former believe that the southern DAGESTANI city of DERBENT is an AZERBAIJANI city. And the latter think that DAGESTAN’S KHASAVYURT and NOVO-LAK DISTRICTS, with their CHECHEN populations, should be handed over to the Republic of CHECHNYA. According to inside source, local elites have already shifted their loyalties from MAKHACHKALA to BAKU or GROZNY, respectively.

Background Information: DAGESTAN

THE WINNING FORMULA TO DESTABILIZE RUSSIA’S CAUCASUS AND THE MIDDLE EAST

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/09/dagestan-syria-comes-to-russia.html

RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS: “ELIMINATE” DAGESTAN AND RESTORE TSARIST – ERA TEREK GUBERNIA

Exacerbating this situation are the calls by some RUSSIAN nationalists to do away with DAGESTAN and restore the tsarist-era administrative territory of TEREK GUBERNIA, which would mean that the northern portion of the republic would be transferred to STAVROPOL KRAI. To make this palatable, these same nationalists have been promising some of the local non-RUSSIAN nationalists that they can set up their own national republics to the south. But there is no way to make any of these territories mono-ethnic without significant population transfers or, what would be even worse, a murderous campaign of ethnic cleansing.

Unfortunately those pushing for the partition of DAGESTAN are thinking only about their own narrowly defined interests. At the same time, the current leadership of DAGESTAN does not seem capable of doing anything serious to resolve the internal conflicts or counter the moves of the CHECHENS or the AZERBAIJANIS. That only makes the effectiveness of the AZERBAIJANI and CHECHEN regimes more attractive to people in DAGESTAN and increases the likelihood of a YUGOSLAVIA-type outcome there.

DAGESTANI ETHNIC GROUPS DO NOT WANT TO GIVE UP THEIR NATIONAL IDENTITIES

Besides inertia, only three things are keeping this outcome at bay, at least for the moment. First, many in DAGESTAN are frightened by the assimilationist programs of BAKU and GROZNY. Generally, DAGESTANI ethnic groups do not want to give up their national identities and feel that they might be putting themselves even more at risk if they turned to either of these. Second, except for the four largest national groups in DAGESTAN, the nationalities there are so small that even their leaders do not believe they could make it on their own. 

Thus, they feel they are better off as small fish in a small pond rather than as small fish in a large ocean, which they fear they would flow into if the DAGESTANI republic were to break apart. And third, at least for the time being, and despite all its talk about the amalgamation of non-RUSSIAN areas with predominantly RUSSIAN ones, MOSCOW will oppose any such moves lest they trigger others, which would further call into question RUSSIAN control of the NORTH CAUCASUS.

FORMATION OF A UNIFIED CIRCASSIAN REPUBLIC - A WAKEUP CALL FOR EVERYONE CONCERNED ABOUT THE REGION

If DAGESTAN were to disintegrate in a YUGOSLAVIA-type scenario, it would almost certainly trigger the splitting apart of the two bi-national republics in the region (KARACHAEVO-CHERKESSIA and KABARDINO-BALKARIA), demands for the formation of a unified CIRCASSIAN Republic, and challenges along the borders of every other republic in the region. Consequently, MOSCOW and MAKHACHKALA are likely to do everything they can to maintain the status quo. But the fact that many are now questioning whether that is possible should be a wakeup call for everyone concerned about the region.

By: Paul Goble via Eurasia Daily Monitor

ARGENTINA:

Clarin Group logo satire 

JUDGE RAFECAS DISMISSES CASE AGAINST 

PRESIDENT FERNÁNDEZ

Development: On 26 February, as a BUENOS AIRES judge dismissed the obstruction of justice case brought against President CRISTINA FERNÁNDEZ, she announced a small ministerial reshuffle.

Significance: Yesterday was a good day for the ARGENTINE president: the decision by Judge DANIEL RAFECAS (The Judge does not belong to the political fraction that supports the Kirchner administration, thus the decision is even more significant) to dismiss the obstruction of justice case originally brought against FERNÁNDEZ by federal prosecutor ALBERTO NISMAN shortly before his mysterious death in January is of particular significance. And her ministerial reshuffle may inject some greater political energy into an administration now facing its last ten months in office.

ACCUSATION AGAINST THE PRESIDENT WAS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE EVIDENCE

Judge RAFECAS left no room for doubt. The accusation against the president, plus Foreign Minister HÉCTOR TIMERMAN and six others, that they conspired to cover up IRANIAN involvement in the 1994 bomb attack on the AMIA JEWISH community center in BUENOS AIRES, which killed 85 people, was not supported by the evidence, he ruled. RAFECAS added that some of the available evidence “directly contradicts” the accusation – a reference to testimony by the former head of INTERPOL denying that the ARGENTINE government had sought to get ‘Red Notices’ for the arrest of IRANIAN suspects withdrawn. RAFECAS also dismissed intercepted telephone conversations between government associates and intelligence agents. They proved nothing, he said.  His decision goes against the views of NISMAN’S successor, prosecutor GERARDO POLLICITA. POLLICITA can appeal the decision to dismiss the case, but it will be a lengthy process.

GOVERNMENTS CLAIM THAT THE WHOLE AFFAIR HAS BEEN AN ATTEMPTED POLITICAL COUP D'ETAT AGAINST THE PRESIDENT GAINS SOME CREDIBILITY

Politically, the decision is very positive for the president. If the government was not trying to obstruct justice in the AMIA case, it follows that it would also have had little to gain from NISMAN’S death (if his death were to be proven to be other than suicide). So FERNÁNDEZ’S claim that the whole affair has been used for political reasons against her gains some credibility. Accusation of foul play made by the so called opposition parties’ (who in reality are the media group CLARIN) look correspondingly weakened. Perhaps most importantly for FERNÁNDEZ, the judge’s decision gives her valuable breathing space at the start of the 2015 election campaign.

Clarin Media Group founder
Hector Magnetto and the Military Junta

The sense of a government regaining the initiative was supported by a mini-reshuffle. Out went Cabinet Chief JORGE CAPITANICH, who resumes his position as governor of CHACO province (from where he intends to run for mayor of RESISTENCIA). He is replaced by ANÍBAL FERNÁNDEZ, one of the government’s heavy hitters (he has previously served as interior minister [2003-2007], justice minister [2007-2009], and as a federal senator [2011-2014]). FERNÁNDEZ, who had been serving as secretary-general to the presidency, was replaced in that role by EDUARDO ‘WADO’ DE PEDRO, a key member of the LA CÁMPORA youth wing of the ruling party, led by the president’s son, MÁXIMO KIRCHNER. His presence indicates that in her last months in office FERNÁNDEZ may increasingly rely on her ‘inner circle’ made up of LA CÁMPORA members.

Looking Ahead: This latest turn of events leaves two or three outstanding issues. First, with the NISMAN case less of an immediate threat, the government could still be under serious pressure as a result of other legal challenges, including corruption charges against Vice-President AMADO BOUDOU and money-laundering charges against President FERNÁNDEZ herself and her immediate family. Second, it remains to be seen how the opposition parties will react to the NISMAN setback, and in the context of the election campaign. And third, to the extent that the government has regained the initiative, what will it use it for? The president is due to open a new session of congress and there is some speculation that she may seek to tighten controls on the judiciary.