DAGESTAN RISKS
BECOMING A ‘YUGOSLAVIA IN THE CAUCASUS’
Executive Summary:
- Increasing influence of AZERBAIJAN and CHECHNYA
- “BALKANIZATION” of the CAUCASUS
- RUSSIAN nationalists: “eliminate” DAGESTAN and restore tsarist – era TEREK GUBERNIA
- DAGESTANI ethnic groups do not want to give up their national identities
- Formation of a unified CIRCASSIAN REPUBLIC - a wakeup call for everyone concerned about the region
· DAGESTAN, the most
ethnically complex republic in the NORTH CAUCASUS, faces an ever greater risk
that it will disintegrate as YUGOSLAVIA did. This growing danger exists both
because of the changing demographics and power relationships within this RUSSIAN
federal-level entity and due to the growing influence of DAGESTAN’S two
neighboring regions—the country of AZERBAIJAN and the RUSSIAN republic of CHECHNYA—on
its peoples. And as was the case with YUGOSLAVIA, the disintegration of DAGESTAN
would be not only bloody but would unsettle numerous relationships in the
region and EURASIA as a whole.
INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF AZERBAIJAN AND CHECHNYA
What makes the YUGOSLAV
scenario a possibility in DAGESTAN are the rapidly worsening problems within
the republic, most of which are longstanding, as well as the efforts of BAKU
and GROZNY to expand their influence. The DAGESTANI neighbors’ moves on the
republic certainly have precedents in the past, but are far more significant
now given DAGESTAN’S own problems.
The increasing influence
of AZERBAIJAN and CHECHNYA reflects the fact that the two have much in common,
even though one is an independent state and the other is a subject of the RUSSIAN
FEDERATION. Both have tightly-controlled power verticals, both have
consolidated elites, and both are animated by a recognition of the need to
overcome the results of destruction in a previous war, the first by the use of
oil and the second by subsidies from MOSCOW. As a result both have been able to
mobilize their societies and boost the authority of those in power.
Background
Information: CASPIAN REGION
CASPIAN BASIN: INCREASED FOCAL POINT OF WEST AND EAST
People in DAGESTAN are
aware of all those issues and it is in sharp contrast to what they see in their
own republic, which remains mired in the past with ethnic groups and clans
fighting among themselves for what money there is. DAGESTAN has oil like AZERBAIJAN,
but it has not been able to develop it. And the money it receives from MOSCOW is
not the basis for its economic development as it is in mono-ethnic CHECHNYA;
rather, rubles from the RUSSIAN center have become “an apple of discord” and a
source of corruption and internal power struggles.
“BALKANIZATION”
OF THE CAUCASUS
In this situation, many
groups within DAGESTAN believe that they could do better off if they lived in
separate mono-ethnic republics rather than be roped together as they are now.
The AZERBAIJANI and CHECHEN Diasporas in the country promote that idea. In
part, the former believe that the southern DAGESTANI city of DERBENT is an AZERBAIJANI
city. And the latter think that DAGESTAN’S KHASAVYURT and NOVO-LAK DISTRICTS,
with their CHECHEN populations, should be handed over to the Republic of CHECHNYA.
According to inside source, local elites have already shifted their loyalties
from MAKHACHKALA to BAKU or GROZNY, respectively.
Background
Information: DAGESTAN
THE WINNING FORMULA TO DESTABILIZE RUSSIA’S CAUCASUS AND THE MIDDLE EAST
RUSSIAN
NATIONALISTS: “ELIMINATE” DAGESTAN AND RESTORE TSARIST – ERA TEREK GUBERNIA
Exacerbating this
situation are the calls by some RUSSIAN nationalists to do away with DAGESTAN
and restore the tsarist-era administrative territory of TEREK GUBERNIA, which
would mean that the northern portion of the republic would be transferred to STAVROPOL
KRAI. To make this palatable, these same nationalists have been promising some
of the local non-RUSSIAN nationalists that they can set up their own national
republics to the south. But there is no way to make any of these territories
mono-ethnic without significant population transfers or, what would be even
worse, a murderous campaign of ethnic cleansing.
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Unfortunately those
pushing for the partition of DAGESTAN are thinking only about their own
narrowly defined interests. At the same time, the current leadership of DAGESTAN
does not seem capable of doing anything serious to resolve the internal
conflicts or counter the moves of the CHECHENS or the AZERBAIJANIS. That only
makes the effectiveness of the AZERBAIJANI and CHECHEN regimes more attractive
to people in DAGESTAN and increases the likelihood of a YUGOSLAVIA-type outcome
there.
DAGESTANI
ETHNIC GROUPS DO NOT WANT TO GIVE UP THEIR NATIONAL IDENTITIES
Besides inertia, only
three things are keeping this outcome at bay, at least for the moment. First,
many in DAGESTAN are frightened by the assimilationist programs of BAKU and GROZNY.
Generally, DAGESTANI ethnic groups do not want to give up their national
identities and feel that they might be putting themselves even more at risk if
they turned to either of these. Second, except for the four largest national
groups in DAGESTAN, the nationalities there are so small that even their
leaders do not believe they could make it on their own.
Thus, they feel they
are better off as small fish in a small pond rather than as small fish in a
large ocean, which they fear they would flow into if the DAGESTANI republic
were to break apart. And third, at least for the time being, and despite all
its talk about the amalgamation of non-RUSSIAN areas with predominantly RUSSIAN
ones, MOSCOW will oppose any such moves lest they trigger others, which would
further call into question RUSSIAN control of the NORTH CAUCASUS.
FORMATION
OF A UNIFIED CIRCASSIAN REPUBLIC - A WAKEUP CALL FOR EVERYONE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE REGION
If DAGESTAN were to
disintegrate in a YUGOSLAVIA-type scenario, it would almost certainly trigger
the splitting apart of the two bi-national republics in the region (KARACHAEVO-CHERKESSIA
and KABARDINO-BALKARIA), demands for the formation of a unified CIRCASSIAN Republic,
and challenges along the borders of every other republic in the region.
Consequently, MOSCOW and MAKHACHKALA are likely to do everything they can to
maintain the status quo. But the fact that many are now questioning whether
that is possible should be a wakeup call for everyone concerned about the
region.
By: Paul Goble via
Eurasia Daily Monitor
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