RUSSIA
BARGES INTO THE EU TENT
Executive Summary:
- RUSSIAN-CYPRIOT military cooperation
- MIDDLE EASTERN Troika: GREECE, CYPRUS and RUSSIA
- MIDDLE EASTERN energy games
The significance of the
agreement recently signed in MOSCOW to let RUSSIAN navy ships anchor at ports
in CYPRUS may lend itself to exaggerated notions of a military pact between the
two countries, which it certainly is not. On the other hand, the profound
meaning of the agreement in political terms – and the visit of CYPRIOT President
NICOS ANASTASIADES to MOSCOW – cannot be lost on WASHINGTON and the EUROPEAN capitals,
especially BRUSSELS where the EUROPEAN UNION is headquartered.
Background
Information: Strategic location of Cyprus
CYPRUS AT ODDS WITH
BRITAIN OVER SOVEREIGN BASE AREAS AND ITS GEOPOLITICAL IMPACT FOR THE REGION
In strategic terms, the
deal doesn’t mean that RUSSIA is about to establish naval bases in CYPRUS. The
agreement merely provides legal underpinning to the RUSSIAN navy ships making
regular port calls at CYPRUS. In military terms, however, RUSSIAN navy is
getting such access on an assured basis at a time when its only maintenance
base happens to be TARTUS, SYRIA, which is caught up in deep turmoil with no
end in view. Simply put, the BLACK SEA Fleet’s MEDITERRANEAN operations will be
on a sound footing with the backup in CYPRUS.
RUSSIAN-CYPRIOT
MILITARY COOPERATION
Equally, RUSSIA is
establishing military cooperation with a country where BRITAIN maintains a
military base. There are reports that CHINA too may be talking with CYPRUS for
similar facilities as RUSSIA has secured.
However, much more than RUSSIAN-CYPRIOT
military cooperation is involved here. ANASTASIADES’S MOSCOW visit also has a
huge geopolitical backdrop where many crosscurrents are at work. For a start, CYPRUS
is an EU member country and it is deepening its ties with RUSSIA, which happens
to be currently the target of EU sanctions. ANASTASIADES, in fact, has
defiantly questioned the rationale of western sanctions against RUSSIA.
CYPRUS has become the
second EU member state – after President VLADIMIR PUTIN’S visit to HUNGARY – to
publicly display its dissent and resentment regarding the US-sponsored western
sanctions against RUSSIA. Like HUNGARY – nay, much more than HUNGARY – CYPRUS has
strong reasons to be treasuring its cooperation with RUSSIA.
Around 80% of foreign
investment in CYPRUS is RUSSIAN. MOSCOW gave a big hand to help CYPRUS see
through its financial crisis – giving a 2.5 billion euro loan in 2011 (and this
week cutting its annual interest rate from 4.5% to 2.5% besides extending the
redemption period from 2016 to 2018-2021) apart from helping CYPRUS organize
successfully its first issue of sovereign CYPRUS Eurobonds since the crisis for
750 million euros. It is estimated that the money flows from RUSSIA to CYPRUS exceeds
$200 billion during the period 1994-2011. The quality of the RUSSIAN-CYPRIOT relationship
becomes evident in PUTIN’S remarks to the media in Moscow while welcoming ANASTASIADES.
Background
Information: CYPRUS AND RUSSIA
CYPRUS FUNCTIONS AS
AN OFFSHORE FINANCIAL CENTER FOR RUSSIA,
THE RUSSIAN
GOVERNMENT PROVIDED CYPRUS WITH A LARGE IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN AGAINST A CRISIS
SHOULD GREECE DEFAULT
MIDDLE
EASTERN TROIKA: GREECE, CYPRUS AND
RUSSIA
The bottom line here is
that it will be an uphill task for WASHINGTON in the period ahead to rally the EU
member countries behind the US’ containment strategy against RUSSIA. The
emergence of a leftist government in GREECE (which mentors CYPRUS), which is
credited with strong links to RUSSIAN ideologues, already irritates WASHINGTON.
HUNGARY and GREECE also happen to be NATO member countries.
So indeed is TURKEY,
which has also edged closer to MOSCOW in the recent years almost in direct
proportion to the strains that have appeared in the discourse between WASHINGTON
and ANKARA. Indeed, at a closer look, a matrix of great complexity is
appearing, which would suggest that snapping the umbilical cords that tie
‘post-SOVIET’ RUSSIA with EUROPE is going to be a Herculean task for the US
diplomacy.
This is not for want of
trying, as the latest US-backed endeavor by the EU bureaucracy to integrate the
bloc’s energy market with the singular intention to ‘centralize’ and control RUSSIA’S
energy ties with individual member states testifies. But the short point is
that RUSSIA has become an avid globalizer, beating the US in its own game, and
it intends to remain that way.
MIDDLE
EASTERN ENERGY GAMES
Coming back to the RUSSIAN-CYPRIOT
partnership, some other templates of regional politics also need to be noted.
First, energy ties. CYPRUS is sitting on vast untapped reserves of natural gas
in its offshore fields in the eastern MEDITERRANEAN. RUSSIAN oil companies are
hoping to wade into CYPRUS’ energy sector, which is presently dominated by AMERICAN
companies. ANASTASIAS has apparently invited RUSSIAN energy companies to move
in.
Background
Information: ENERGY GAMES IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
ENORMOUS OIL AND GAS
FINDINGS IN THE LEVANTINE
ENERGY GAMES IN THE
EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
US DOUBLE EGGED SWORD
POLICIES ON CYPRUS
Now, CYPRUS’ gas fields
are contiguous to SYRIA’S economic zone, which also are credited with untapped
hydrocarbon reserves. CYPRIOT and ISRAELI gas fields are also overlapping –
like QATAR and IRAN. The evacuation of CYPRIOT gas to EUROPE would be an AMERICAN
priority with a view to reducing EUROPE’S dependence on RUSSIA. On the other
hand, the ideal pipeline route from CYPRUS would be via TURKEY with which CYPRUS
has no relations following the occupation of northern CYPRUS by TURKEY in 1974.
WASHINGTON is keenly encouraging TURKISH-CYPRIOT reconciliation – talks resumed
in early February following a two-year break – but the public opinion in CYPRUS
strongly militates against accepting TURKEY’S presence in NORTHERN CYPRUS. The
deadlock is difficult to break.
Which would prompt RUSSIA
to step in as an energy partner for CYPRUS. RUSSIA is also pressing ahead talks
with TURKEY regarding a new gas pipeline via the BLACK SEA (replacing the South
Stream which MOSCOW has summarily abandoned) leading to the countries of
southeastern EUROPE. Clearly, energy politics of the eastern MEDITERRANEAN
region is surging and RUSSIA has a finger in almost every pie.
All in all, having
secured a strong position on the ground in UKRAINE, RUSSIA is returning to the
world stage to pick the threads where it left them. The recent visit by Putin
to EGYPT and ANASTASIADES’S visit to MOSCOW signal that RUSSIAN diplomacy is
neither in defensive mode nor is RUSSIA bogged down in a quagmire in UKRAINE.
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