MALVINAS: 30 YEARS ON

Controversial Coffee mug sold in Malvinas souvenir-shops at the eve of the 30th anniversary of the Malvinas war  

ARGENTINA: CORPORATE INTEREST VERSUS IMPARTIALITY

Reading STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE analysis regarding the MALVINAS conflict between ARGENTINA and the UK one cannot avoid noticing certain bias towards ARGENTINA, for she does not adhered to the “Anglo Saxon” eco – political doctrines. 

For example STRATFOR writes: A couple of recent developments have aggravated the countries' long-running dispute over ownership of the islands. First, significant offshore oil and natural gas reserves have been discovered near the FALKLANDS. Second, as the economic situation in ARGENTINA has deteriorated over the last decade, rhetoric regarding the MALVINAS has served as a useful tool for promoting nationalistic sentiment in the country.

Comment: First of all the economic situation in ARGENTINA has not deteriorated over the last decade, (interesting that STRATFOR focuses on the last 10 years, the time the Kirchners’ took office and implemented unorthodox but successful fiscal policies which seemed to upset the International Financial Institutions eco political agenda) other then limited growth which was subject to the worldwide finance crisis. According to foreign economic sources, ARGENTINE 'S economy retracted only slightly, and thus is in good shape especially when compared with key industrial nations. Despite CHINA'S economic slowdown ARGENTINA still profits from never ending demand on agriculture products, thus the country is not endangered of run short of money. 

Here are some facts and figures on Argentine's Economy, one hardly will read in Argentine mainstream newspapers  such as Clarin and La Nacion

GDP - PURCHASING POWER PARITY 2012 COUNTRY RANKS, BY RANK

Argentina ranks No. 22 out of 226 countries

http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_purchasing_power_parity_2012_0.html

GDP - OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE 2012 COUNTRY RANKS, BY RANK

Argentina ranks No. 28 out of 215 countries

http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_official_exchange_rate_2012_0.html

 

GDP - REAL GROWTH RATE(%) 2012 COUNTRY RANKS, BY RANK

Argentina ranks No. 11 out of 214 countries

http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_real_growth_rate_2012_0.html

 

To view the entire statistics see:

http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/argentina/argentina_economy.html or

http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/DE/Aussenpolitik/Laender/Laenderinfos/Argentinien/Wirtschaft_node.html

To reiterate above: Soybean has reached a higher market price, reaching almost U$S 510 a ton. These results are explained by the strong demand from ASIA – since they are increasing meat demand and feed livestock with soybean. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=soybeans

 

This seems to be a trend that will remain stable despite any decrease in general demand and consumption around the globe, since food will remain in demand by markets. This has a positive impact for ARGENTINA as it ensures a consistent flow of dollars.

MALVINAS DISPUTE: STRATFOR NEGLECTS TO MENTION ANTARCTICA AND FISHING INDUSTRY 

Secondly STRATFOR mentions that recent oil and gas discoveries on the islands have aggravated ARGENTINA but fail to mention that the dispute is not only about gas and oil but also about ANTARCTICA and the FISHING INDUSTRY. See http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/from-mediterranean-persian-gulf-to.html

 

STRATFOR further writes: Furthermore, ARGENTINA remains isolated from international credit markets and, with troubles meeting its own budgetary needs at home, it likely cannot afford a war. Nevertheless, Buenos Aires, aware of significant cuts to the UNITED KINGDOM'S defense budget, may sense an opportunity to challenge the UNITED KINGDOM'S stance. 

ARGENTINE S NEW PILLAR: MINING INDUSTRY

Economically Argentina has done rather well, considering that the country is expelled from international credit markets; something the IMF, World Bank and the Paris Club simply can’t accept. For reasons explained previously, Argentina is still in the position to meet its budgetary needs, much to the despair of the orthodox International Financial Initiations, who would like to see Argentina depending on their doctrines and demands, in order to get an even larger slice of the “agricultural and natural resources cake” the country has to offer. Last but not least one should not forget that mining in Argentina is only just beginning to evolve and for which foreign enterprises are fighting over in order to obtain the best deals for the future. See: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/10/corporatocracy.html

The full Article from STRATFOR GLOBAL Intelligence reads as follows:

 

CHILE'S INTEREST IN THE FALKLAND ISLANDS DISPUTE

Via Stratfor

Summary

ARGENTINE President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner met with CHILEAN President Sebastian Pinera on March 15, just days after her meeting with BRITISH Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Jeremy Browne. In both meetings, ARGENTINA'S claim of sovereignty over the BRITISH FALKLAND Islands (known in ARGENTINA as the MALVINAS) was the topic of discussion. The UNITED KINGDOM and ARGENTINA have been courting CHILE'S support in the longstanding bilateral dispute because CHILE is the only country in the Southern Cone with a vested interest in the UNITED KINGDOM'S maintaining control over the FALKLANDS.

Tension has been rising between ARGENTINA and the UNITED KINGDOM in the run-up to April 2, the 30th anniversary of the FALKLANDS War. CHILE, which has its own territorial disputes with neighboring countries, does not wish to see border changes in its region, but it also must take care not to upset relations with a regional player.

Analysis

A couple of recent developments have aggravated the countries' long-running dispute over ownership of the islands. First, significant offshore oil and natural gas reserves have been discovered near the FALKLANDS. Second, as the economic situation in ARGENTINA has deteriorated over the last decade, rhetoric regarding the MALVINAS has served as a useful tool for promoting nationalistic sentiment in the country.

Despite aggressive rhetoric and the bitter memories ARGENTINES harbor from the war, a military confrontation over the disputed islands is unlikely. ARGENTINA has not modernized its armed forces since the military dictatorship fell in 1983, in part because of the extremely poor relationship between the military and the current administration. Furthermore, ARGENTINA remains isolated from international credit markets and, with troubles meeting its own budgetary needs at home, it likely cannot afford a war. Nevertheless, Buenos Aires, aware of significant cuts to the UNITED KINGDOM'S defense budget, may sense an opportunity to challenge the UNITED KINGDOM'S stance. 

To push the UNITED KINGDOM toward a settlement, ARGENTINA has threatened to appeal to the UNITED NATIONS and has used the UNION OF SOUTH AMERICAN NATIONS (UNASUR) to impose a blockade against FALKLAND-flagged maritime vessels. ARGENTINA has also threatened to declare as illegal any oil activity in the waters surrounding the islands. BRAZIL, URUGUAY and CHILE have all agreed to the blockade. BOLIVIA, ECUADOR, PERU, PARAGUAY and VENEZUELA have all expressed support. Of these countries, BRAZIL and CHILE are the most important.

BRAZIL has many reasons to support Buenos Aires. BRAZIL is not only a major trading partner of ARGENTINA'S, but it is also the creator of UNASUR and has an interest in proving that the multilateral forum can be effective. BRAZIL'S support of ARGENTINA'S claims, however, likely will not extend to approval of military action. With major offshore oil projects in the works, a conflict in the South Atlantic could risk key strategic interests that BRAZIL'S military is not yet prepared to defend. BRAZIL has thus hedged its agreement to the blockade on FALKLAND-flagged vessels by saying it will allow any BRITISH-flagged vessels through the blockade, regardless of their origin. 

Though BRAZIL is a much larger country, CHILE is in many ways more important regarding this issue. Currently, CHILE is the only South American country with direct flights to the FALKLAND Islands. Any blockade would thus require CHILE to go beyond merely restricting port access. Furthermore, CHILE has undermined ARGENTINA'S claim to the islands in the past: During the war in 1982, CHILE supplied intelligence about ARGENTINE military and radar systems to the UNITED KINGDOM.

CHILES NEVER-ENDING TERRITORIAL CLAIMS (title added by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring)

In addition to a longstanding rivalry with ARGENTINA, CHILE has an interest in preventing any border shifts in the region because the country has territorial disputes with BOLIVIA and PERU. The UNITED KINGDOM established its rule over the Falkland Islands in 1833; by agreeing that the islands belong to ARGENTINA, CHILE would set a precedent that could affect BOLIVIA and PERU'S territorial claims over the region of northern CHILE, which CHILE conquered in the 1879-1883 War of the Pacific. The war left BOLIVIA landlocked and created 37,900 square kilometers (14,600 square miles) of contested territory along the maritime border with PERU. BOLIVIA plans to bring a lawsuit against CHILE at THE HAGUE this year, claiming sovereign access to the Pacific coast. PERU presented its case against CHILE at THE HAGUE in 2008, and a decision on the case may be made in 2012. CHILE appears to have a never-ending thrive for “land grabbing”.(comment in blue added by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring)
 See: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_the_War_of_the_Pacific.en.svg

Realizing the regional interests in this issue, the UNITED KINGDOM over the last six months has sent top diplomats to BRAZIL and CHILE to seek support -- or at least neutrality -- from regional players as London attempts to settle its dispute with ARGENTINA. Although BRAZIL has no interest in a South Atlantic war, CHILE has an active interest in the FALKLANDS' remaining BRITISH. Though Pinera has publically said that CHILE supports ARGENTINA, he has at the same time asserted that CHILE has a special relationship with the UNITED KINGDOM. Going forward, CHILE will continue to be stuck in the middle of this dispute, supporting the BRITISH while trying to soothe relations with an increasingly confrontational ARGENTINA.