FUTURE TRENDS
Adapted
by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from Ioannis Michaletos
In all BALKAN states excluding GREECE
the overall Muslim population is set to increase because of declining birth
rates among non Muslims, a phenomenon that also sweeps across EUROPE, where
Muslims are slowly but surely outnumber non Muslims. Furthermore, immigration
movements from the BALKANS towards WESTERN EUROPE have actually lowered the population
in BULGARIA, over the past decade or so.
The BALKANS has always constituted
one of the fiercest terrains of ethnic – Cultural enmity in EUROPE. The reasons
for the above are the placement of the Peninsula close to ASIA that reserved
the role of the “EUROPEAN gatekeeper” for the whole of SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE.
One has to remember of the Kraijna border area created by the AUSTRIANS in the
17th century in order to counterweight the Ottoman forces.
Future seems to have elements of
repeating this situation due to the ongoing rivalry between WEST and EAST, a
phenomenon that one can easily retrieve by reading Homer’s Iliad or by
comprehending the PERSIANS wars back in the 5th century BC, as they were
recorded by Herodotus historiography. The BALKANS are the gateway between the WEST
and the EAST, where OXIDANT meets ORIENT.
THE BALKAN PENINSULA REMAINS MORE THAN EVER “THE SOFT UNDERBELLY OF EUROPE”
THE BALKAN PENINSULA REMAINS MORE THAN EVER “THE SOFT UNDERBELLY OF EUROPE”
The overall challenges for security
and intelligence services, oriented in the BALKAN region seems overwhelming,
judging by the multitude of challenges involved and the tasks needed to
overcome them. The current époque has brought the re-engineering of security
policies, in order to combat non- symmetrical threats such as the ones of
organized crime and terrorism. Taking into account the globalization process,
the interrelation between societies and the breathtaking advancements in
telecommunications and transport; it is fair to assume that certain issues
should be seriously reflected upon, on a different perspective than the traditional
mode.
A multiparty approach to organized
crime should be form here upon the core of any intelligence activity in the BALKANS.
Organized crime –Along with the rest of the perils for modern societies- need
measures that are up to the modern way of life and communication of ours. A
parallel and well constructed method of Open Source Intelligence gathering and
the operation of specialized crime intelligence units would certainly help
towards the aim of curbing crime and its calamities.
In addition a conclusive
analysis and synthesis of the available information, without any bias; should
be the core of any serious attempt into reaching viable prognosis and stall
malicious situations such as terrorists incidents and further empowerment of
organized crime.
In order for the aforementioned to
become a custom reality, there has to be a constructive and significant
replenish of the human resources involved and an upgrade of the present era
technical equipment. Therefore decisions should be taken soon enough so as to
foresee any positive results, before events surpass the ability of the
intelligence community to react and function properly.
The BALKAN Peninsula
remains more than ever “The soft underbelly of EUROPE”, apart from the other
more conventional menaces in the wider EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN area.
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