Tuesday 25 February 2014

ISRAEL and SYRIA 2014


Western sources: Israel Air Force hits SS-21 batteries, first attack in Syrian war on nuclear-capable missiles

Via DEBKAfile 

Western military and intelligence sources report that Israeli Air Force strikes in Lebanon and Syria overnight Monday, Feb. 24 came on the heels of the first use in the three-year Syrian war of a Russian-made nuclear-capable Tochka (Point) surface missile - NATO-coded SS-21 Scarab - which carries a 480-kilo warhead with a range of 70 km. These missiles were fired earlier Monday in the Syrian-Hizballah battle for Yabroud. There was no information about the effect of the Israeli strikes.

According to Lebanese sources, however, the target was a cluster of five Hizballah bases or command posts in the Lebanese Beqaa Valley. Hizballah casualties were reported.
That was one Lebanese version of the incident. In the absence of independent confirmation or official information, different sources offered a variety of alternative targets.
Some sources named them as missile-launchers fired from Lebanon in support of the Hizballah-Syrian army battle for the strategic town of Yabroud, the last Syrian rebel stronghold in the Qalamoun Mts just across the Syrian border. This town, 80 kilometers north of Damascus, has held out against two months of vicious combat.

Close watch being kept on the movements of Iranian weapons

Mt. Hermon bordering Lebanon Syria and Israel
A fourth version claims that the air strikes hit a convoy ferrying weapons from Hizballah’s Lebanese stores into Syria or, alternatively, convoys transporting missiles in the opposite direction, from Syria to Hizballah bases in Lebanon.
The Air Force went into action the day after Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz commented during a visit to the Golan that a close watch is being kept on the movements of Iranian weapons and ammo present in all the troubled sectors of the region. This is of extreme concern to Israel, he said.
As he spoke, Syrian intelligence detonated a large car bomb at a military hospital near the Iraqi border treating Syrian rebel casualties. The attack cost 14 lives, including several wounded men.

DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources estimate that Israel’s action has left two big question marks:
1. Was it a one-off, or the start of a series?
2.  Will Hizballah or Syria hit back?  
Up until now, any military actions Israel undertook in Syria and Lebanon were cloaked in secrecy and never admitted by the IDF, even when images emerged of the damage caused. This time, there are no images and even Lebanese security sources can’t agree on the targets that were hit.
That is because the shoe is now on the other foot. The Iranian Al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani has ordered the Israeli air strikes to be kept under tight wraps.
Earlier this month, Soleimani was placed officially in charge of Iran’s military interventions in the battlefields of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian “resistance.”   

This was part of the distribution of tasks ordered by Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to hold Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) chiefs back from sabotaging Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the six powers. Diplomacy was left in the province of President Hassan Rouhani, but his government was barred from interfering in Iran’s external military operations.

Khamenei’s solution for separating the two rival camps in Tehran has placed Israel and its armed forces face to face for the first time with the Iranian command center directly orchestrating its Arab adversaries.
It is one of the ruthless Gen. Soleimani’s principles never to let any assault on Iran or its interests go unanswered. Israel may therefore expect retaliation for its air strikes – though not necessarily from Syria or Lebanon.

Monday 24 February 2014

CYPRUS AND ISRAEL


Energy Security: Israel Deploy Jet Fighters to Cyprus, as Bilateral Relations Enter a ‘New Phase’

Sharing a common interest in securing offshore mineral exploration areas throughout the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel and Cyprus are tightening defense cooperation through a series of air and naval exercises conducted over the Islands’ southern coast. The relations between Israel, Cyprus and Greece are warming since 2008, as Israel’s close relations with Turkey deteriorated since the rise of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to power.

According to Cypriot Defense minister Fotis Fotiou, Cyprus’ relations with Israel are entering a new phase. “I am confident that the strategic dialogue that began several months ago will benefit both countries and will continue on all areas, including energy security.” Fotiou said while visiting a bilateral exercise the Israel Air Force conducted in Cyprus earlier this month, the Cyprus mail reports.
Since the missile crisis in 1998 Cyprus reportedly has bought several types of modern air defense systems from Russia, including the SA-15 Tor M1 and SA-17 Buk SAM systems.
The exercise codenamed ‘Onisilos-Gideon’ was held in Cyprus. It took place inside the Nicosia Flight Information Region (FIR), as Israeli fighter jets roared low over Limassol and Chirokitia for several hours. According to sources in Cyprus 32 Israeli fighter  jets and six support aircraft took part in the exercise, including F-15 andF-16s. The exercise included simulated firing at targets on land and at sea, along the Island’s southern coast from Limassol to Paphos, the Cypriot side  played the air defense role, employing the islands’ air defense systems.Background Information: IAF (ISRAELI AIR FORCE) TO BE STATIONED IN CYPRUS http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/eastern-mediterranean-sea.html
The Greek air defense forces have fired the first S-300 PMI1 missile in December 2013, 14 years after fielding the system, acquired from Cyprus following the missile crisis between Cyprus and Turkey. Background Information:  CYPRUS DENIES TURKISH ACCUSATIONS ABOUT MILITARY TIES WITH ISRAEL http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/05/cyprus-and-turkey-never-ending-story.html
In recent years Cyprus established an impressive air defense network, based on several types of missile systems, primarily Russian made. In 1997 Cyprus acquired an early model of the Russian S-300air defense system (PMU1). The unit employs 12 mobile launchers, and associated radar and communications units. The entry of that S-300 triggered the missile crisis in 1998 between Cyprus and Turkey, which lead to the transfer of the weapons to Greece. Today the Cypriot S-300 are not based in the island but deployed in Crete under Greek control. In December 2014 the Greek Air Defense forces fired the first S-300 missile during an operational live exercise ‘White eagle’.

A previous exercise held in April 2013 involved the navies of the two nations, operating joint search and rescue (SAR) missions at sea, south of the island. The drills were held in line with the bilateral agreement drawn up in February 2012 between the Cyprus and Israel on SAR issues.
Lacking significant military power, Cyprus has relied on foreign powers to secure the island. In the past, British forces based at Akrotiri provided deterrence against foreign aggression. Greece sent F-16s to be based at a special military annex established at the Paphos International Airport, on the western tip of the island. Background Information: CYPRUS AT ODDS WITH BRITAIN OVER SOVEREIGN BASE AREAS AND ITS GEOPOLITICAL IMPACT FOR THE REGION
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/cyprus-emerging-geo-strategic-key.html

“I am confident that the strategic dialogue that began several months ago will benefit both countries and will continue on all areas, including energy security.” Cypriot Defense minister Fotis Fotiou stated
To support military airpower from abroad the Cypriot government invested in constructing the necessary infrastructure at the Andreus Papandreou Air Base, the primary air base in the island, adjacent to the Paphos International Airport. The military annex has a runway, taxiway, hardened aircraft-shelters and integrated command, control and communication facilities. These facilities were used in the past to host F-16s of the Hellenic Air Force that deployed to Cyprus. Papandreou AFB also houses a small helicopter overhaul and maintenance facility supporting the Cypriot national guard.

In recent years, with the simmering tension with Turkey growing into a conflict over rich offshore reservoirs of oil and gas, Cyprus’ security requirements are growing. In addition, the tension in Syria and potential friction with Lebanese elements also have their effect on the island’s security. One of the most serious incidents happened in September 2013, as two Syrian Sukhoi Su-24 strike fighter jets approached the island from the east. British Royal Air Force (RAF) Typhoon aircraft stationed at the time in Akrotiri were scrambled against the Syrian fighters, which turned back before entering the aerial exclusion zone around the base. The British jets were part of a combined force sent by NATO to prepare to assist civilian relief operations following the chemical attacks against civilians in Syria.
In addition to joint exercises Israel has also applied to Cyprus in a request to establish an operational support site in Paphos.  In addition to supporting military jets during exercises over the mediterranean, the site could be used to support patrol aircraft and helicopters operating on maritime surveillance flights over the Israeli and Cypriot Aphrodite and Leviathan exploration areas located mid-way between Cyprus and Israel. Background Information:CYPRUS AND ISRAEL TO BECOME MAJOR GAS EXPORTERS IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE 
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/02/geo-strategic-dynamics-in-eastern.html

Offshore exploration areas patrolled by the IAF are located within the Israeli Economical Exclusion Zone (EEZ) spanning up to 200 miles from the israeli coastline and adjacent to the Cypriot EEZ. Aircraft patrolling these areas could benefit from a landing base in Cyprus in case of emergency, or when required to maintain persistent surveillance over remote areas. Israel is operating on maritime patrol missions the Sea-Scan maritime patrol aircraft, S-365 Dolphin helicopters helicopters and Heron-I unmanned aerial vehicles.
Background Information: Energy Games in the Eastern Mediterranean
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/energy-games-in-eastern-mediterranean.html and 
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/09/warmongerning-between-israel-and-turkey.html

Via StratRisk

Sunday 23 February 2014

TURKEY


Fear and Loathing in Turkey: Erdogan versus the Gulenists

At first glance, the Turkish scandals that emerged in December 2013 appear to be cases of ordinary corruption, but under the surface a power struggle is unfolding.

Unlike the Gezi Park protests, this confrontation is among those in power and not merely the Turkish government and a cross-section of opposition movements.

The two antagonist camps are, in one corner, the Gulenists, which are the acolytes of the influential US-based scholar, Fethullah Gulen (the preacher “beyond the ocean”) inside the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey’s state institutions, and the followers of Prime Minister Erdogan and what can be referred to as the National View portion of the AKP in the other corner.

Background Information:

GULEN: ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL MOVEMENTS IN THE ISLAMIC WORLD

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/06/turkey-in-turmoil.html

Iran appears to have been caught in the middle of the crossfire between two rival Turkish cliques due to the involvement of Halkbank.

Vendetta, persecuting AKP corruption, or regime change operations?

Tensions between the Gulenists and the Erdogan camp and his allies had been building for some time, but the divorce between them revealed itself in full when the Turkish government announced in November 2013 that it was going to close Turkish private preparatory schools and tutorial halls. This was an attack on the Gulenists, designed to weaken or de-fang them, because they run numerous prep schools in Turkey and around the world as lucrative sources of revenue, as well as for the recruitment and indoctrination of new members. While an earlier scandal involving secret peace talks with Kurdish separatists in 2012 saw a battle between the two camps, the closure of the preparatory schools was the point of no return. Erdogan’s decision transformed the silent internal power struggle between the two camps into an open war.

The break up between the two sides appeared after the resignation of MP Idris Bal from the AKP on November 30, in protest to the shutting of the private schools. Bal’s resignation was followed by the resignation of MP Hakan Sukur, an outright Gulenist, on December 16. Sukur even publicly admitted that he consulted Fethullah Gulen himself about his decision. MP Hasan Hami Yildirim, also associated with the Gulenist movement, would resign on December 31, 2013.

The day after the withdrawal of Sukur from the AKP, criminal investigations were officially launched against AKP members and their families that included charges of money laundering, construction fraud, bribery, and the illegal sale of Turkish citizenship. The groundwork for these investigations was secretly prepared in 2012, the same year as the battle over the Kurdish peace talks. Three anti-corruption investigations resulted in a major scandal for the Turkish government. Gulenist or not, the chief prosecutor was Zekeriya Oz, responsible earlier for the Ergenekon investigation against members of the Turkish military that were allegedly planning a coup d’état against the AKP. The McCarthy-style prosecutions led by Oz were witch hunts that had the unbending support and praise of the AKP government, which branded Oz a national hero.

Infamous photos of shoe boxes full of millions of dollars found inside the CEO of Halkbank’s home were leaked to the media for publication by the Turkish investigators. Prime Minister Erdogan’s reaction was harsh. He intervened directly in the investigations, creating tensions with the police and judiciary. The AKP government was outraged that they were not consulted before any investigation was initiated. All police and law enforcement units were ordered to henceforth inform their superiors, and essentially the government, about all their investigations for approval.

Hundreds of police and law enforcement agents, including key police chiefs in Istanbul and throughout Turkey, were dismissed and the AKP put forward a plan to restructure the Turkish judicial system. Hereafter, by government order, journalists were no longer allowed to enter Turkish police departments. Eventually, the Turkish government would remove five thousand individuals from their posts, including from the Telecommunications Directorate (TIB) and the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK). The justifications for the moves were that the AKP was purging state institutions of the Gulenist cult, which was creating a state within the state and collaborating with foreign interests.

Erdogan also struck out at Oz, revealing that Oz himself was involved in corruption and took multiple lavish vacations around the world annually. Indicating the depth of the inner struggle, the media also began receiving humiliating tapes of Prime Minister Erdogan’s private telephone conversations, which painted a picture of a cover-up attempt on his part.

Graft probes aimed at hurting Turkish ties with Iran?

There has been a corresponding and less explosive scandal in Iran, with an uproar in the Iranian Parliament and many MPs questioning the government. Tehran also arrested the Iranian billionaire, Babak Zanjani, who is the boss of Reza Sarraf/Zarrab in Turkey. Zanjani was commissioned by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government to circumvent the US-led sanctions against Iran. The Halkbank Scandal put Zanjani’s operations under closer scrutiny by the authorities in Tehran. After the graft scandal in Turkey became public, Iranian authorities probably realized that Zanjani and his associates were pocketing much more money than they were entitled to for the covert trade that they were responsible for facilitating on behalf of Tehran. Zanjani was consequently charged by Iranian police for embezzling approximately two billion dollars from government funds.

Background Information: 
IRAN HAS IMPORTED SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF GOLD FROM TURKEY, DESPITE THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT'S STERN DENIALS
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/turkey-iran-great-silk-gold-road.html


The Iranian media has not really joined the dots together, or discussed the connections between Zanjani and Halkbank in depth. Understandably, their government and its partners do not want to delve too deeply into how they have used Turkey and other countries, including China, to internationally circumvent the US-led sanctions regime. Iranian Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi has even asked, while speaking to the Mehr News Agency, that the Iranian media not cover corruption stories like the one involving Zanjani, because of the effects it could have on investment in the Iranian economy.

Turkish government has been trying to silently distance itself from the neo-Ottoman policies that it has adopted since the Arab Spring erupted in 2011

What it is important to be aware of is that the graft scandal in Turkey has erupted at a time when the Turkish government has been trying to silently distance itself from the neo-Ottoman policies that it has adopted since the Arab Spring erupted in 2011. While Ankara’s political ties with Tehran and Moscow were steadily degenerating as a result of the AKP government’s stillborn neo-Ottoman stance to carve out a sphere of influence for Turkey in the Arab World, Turkish officials were becoming more and more painfully aware that Turkish ties with Iran and Russia are indispensable.

Ankara had optimistically expected that the Syrian government would collapse and then would mend its ties with Iran and Russia afterwards, but it slowly realized that the neo-Ottoman regional order it originally envisaged was unfeasible. As a result, in the final months of 2013, the Turkish government appeared to soften its stance against Damascus, at least in its public rhetoric, and began to embark on a path to rebuild and repair its ties to Iran and Russia. There have also been numerous reports suggesting that Ankara has asked Tehran in closed door talks to repair Turkish ties with the Syrian government.

Turkey to enter the Shanghai Cooperation Organization instead of the EU 

In the context of moving closer towards Iran and Russia, Prime Minister Erdogan asked President Vladimir Putin and Russian officials, during a press conference held in St. Petersburg in November 2013, to let Turkey enter the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a full member and promised that Turkey would forget any idea of joining the EU if it entered the SCO. This was not the first time that Erdogan had talked about Turkey being admitted into the SCO, the last time he mentioned it was during an interview on Turkey’s Kanal 24 in January 2013. This time, however, he also asked that Turkey join the Eurasian Union that Russia and its sister-republic allies, Kazakhstan and Belarus, are forming.

About two months after the St. Petersburg press conference with Putin, Erdogan went as far as to denounce and backtrack on the AKP’s neo-Ottoman policy, while visiting Japan in January 2014. He declared in the presence of his Japanese hosts that Ankara had no ambitions for Turkey to become either a regional or global power. This is quite a different position from the one that Foreign Minister Davutoglu and Erdogan had espoused in 2011.

The Turks additionally called for the Iranians to participate at the second international peace conference on Syria in Switzerland and hosted Iran at a January 17 conference in Sanliurfa for all the countries bordering Syria. Ankara also began the work to bridge its position with the Iranian and Russian positions on Syria by coordinating joint positions on certain issues before Geneva II was held in Montreux. Furthermore, Prime Minister Erdogan visited Tehran late in January, despite a warning from Washington, and forged common ground on Syria.

US and Israeli meddling inside Turkey?

The Turkish government is blaming the US and Israel for its battle with the Gulenists. This is a repeat of the accusations that the AKP government leveled about the foreign hand that was responsible for the Gezi Park protests. These claims can be dismissed as diversion tactics, but they do hold some weight.

Catching wind of how Iran was working through Turkey to circumvent sanctions, the US government banned gold exports to Iran in July 2013. This may be the same time that investigators inside Turkey discovered that Halkbank’s CEO was receiving money from Sarraf/Zarrab, which means that there is a possibility that they may have been informed by US channels or vice-versa; they may have informed the US government through the Gulenist movement or other channels. The US and Israel were also upset that Halkbank was going to be used by India to make New Delhi’s debt and oil payments to Iran.

Prime Minister Erdogan’s cohorts report that there is an international conspiracy to ruin Turkey, while the Gulenist faction claims that Erdogan and his allies are lying to hide their corrupt practices. A much smaller faction of the media has reported that the government corruption has been exposed by the Gulenists, due to political motivations and the objective of regime change.

The Gulenists have been portrayed as, knowingly or unknowingly, being US and Israeli agents, working as pawns for the interests of Washington and Tel Aviv. The Gulenist role in revealing Halkbank’s services to Tehran gives room for entertaining this notion, because it has hurt the interests of Erdogan and Iran. There are also other factors that give credibility to the view that the Gulenists are tied to the US and Israel. These factors are: the opposition of Fethullah Gulen to Turkish efforts to send an aid flotilla to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in 2010;
( Background Information:
THE TRUE REASON BEHIND TURKEYS WARMONGERING AGAINST ISRAEL 

Gulen’s recognition of Israel as the proper authority in Gaza in line with his pro-Israeli stance; and Gulen’s aggressive and unfathomable opposition to a peaceful settlement in Turkish/Northern Kurdistan or southeastern Turkey.


Further Background Information: 



Regardless of the nature of their ties to Washington and Tel Aviv, the Gulenists have worked to further US and Israeli objectives through their demands in Kurdistan. The military option in Turkish/Northern Kurdistan that the Gulenists have desired would have negative effects on Turkey and the bordering countries. It would destabilize Turkey, polarize Turkey’s Kurdish citizens, and amplify the ethnic cleavages between Turks and Kurds. In short, it would catalyze the Kurds throughout the region into mobilizing against their governments and divide Turkey, which is a scenario that benefits the US and Israel.

Do not be fooled into thinking that Fethullah Gulen’s movement is some wholesome organization. It is a shadowy organization with lots of money and assets around the world, and no one knows how these things were initially procured. It could very well be funded by the CIA as a means of gaining influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The movement has also had its schools in other places closed. The aged Gulen himself may not even have any control over the organization. Turkish government officials additionally have refrained from mentioning it by name too, instead consistently using cryptic language about it. The purges show that there is real fear amongst them.

The corruption probes that were launched by the Gulenist have nothing to do with upholding the law. The probes are a form of retaliation by Gulen in the power struggle with Prime Minister Erdogan and his allies. The Gulenists never had any problems with government corruption earlier. They have been a party to it and unavailingly looked the other way during previous scandals, such as the Deniz Feneri scandal, which the same judiciary was blocked from investigating.

It should not be forgotten, either, that Erdogan himself is the one who allowed the Gulenists to gain access to important positions and offices. He had no problem with this as long as they were partners. Nor should it be forgotten that his government has also been intimately tied to the US and Israel, both openly and clandestinely.

Jinni of uncertainty out of the bottle?

The grassroots and rank and file of the AKP are being split. There are increasing groans from within about Prime Minister Erdogan. Tensions reportedly exist between him and President Abdullah Gul too. One of the ministers that resigned, Erdogan Bayraktar, even said that Erdogan was fully aware of everything that was happening and has defiantly called for him to step down from the premiership.

A revolt within the AKP against Erdogan and his political lieutenants could eventually come as the AKP’s political strength further erodes. The Turkish municipal elections due to be held in March 2014 will stoke these flames.

Possibly in a sign of the AKP’s panic about the upcoming mayoral elections, Turkish officials have ordered that the assets of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) main opposition candidate in Istanbul be confiscated due to a bad loan dating back to 1998. The move has been seen as a way to insure that the AKP incumbent in Istanbul keeps his position.

There are probably still remnants of the Gulenists within the AKP that have not withdrawn from the governing party, which will probably show their faces with time, and perhaps when an AKP revolt against Erdogan and his allies is in full swing.

Turkey has also been damaged in multiple ways. The Turkish lira’s values have fallen and speculation has hurt the economy further, not to mention that the key person from the US Treasury responsible for managing the US-led sanctions regime against Iran arrived in Turkey to discuss Halkbank.

The Turkish judiciary now sits at the heart of the internal struggle with the government purges. While the AKP claims that it is trying to remove subversive elements, its critics maintain it is erasing the independence of the judiciary by officially subordinating the courts to the Turkish government.

The upper echelons of the Turkish military are now bravely making statements in the political arena too. Retrials for the convicted members of the Turkish military have been asked for. There are legitimate fears in the Turkish intelligentsia about the return of military tutelage.

The question that arises from all this is whether the fighting between Erdogan and the Gulenist has been designed to prevent Turkey, corrupt or not, from upholding an independent foreign policy that would allow Ankara to shift towards the orbits of Iran and Russia.

Friday 14 February 2014

CHAD AND THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC



Chad’s role behind the scenes in the

Central African Republic

A bloody conflict is threatening to tear the Central African Republic (CAR) apart. The African Union has sent troops, the EU wants to follow suit – but it is Chad which is pulling the strings militarily and politically.
Zentralafrikanische Republik Ausschreitungen Gewalt Christen Muslime 16.01.14
The Central African Republic’s northern neighbor, Chad, is a military heavyweight in the region. Under the leadership of President Idriss Deby Itno, it is a driving force behind key decisions in the current crisis. For example, on the question of the president: CAR’s interim president Michel Djotodia was invited to attend a summit of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) in the Chadian capital N’Djamena in January 2014. He then resigned following pressure put on him by President Deby. This was not the first time Chad had decided on the rise and fall of a Central African president. Deby has always considered CAR to be Chad’s backyard, says Helga Dickow, an expert on Central Africa at the Arnold Bergstresser Institute at Freiburg University. In the 1990s, former president Ange-Felix Patasse came to power with Chadian support, she said in an interview with DW. “And Djotodia’s predecessor, Bozize, was basically only head of government with Deby’s approval.”

The Chadian president Idriss Deby Itno has been in power for 23 years.

Military might Chad 
also has a very strong military presence in CAR. A large part of the 5,500- strong military mission of the African Union (MISCA) was provided by Chad. In December 2013, the intervention force was tasked with bringing stability to the country. In addition to MISCA, there are also some 1,600 French soldiers in the Central African Republic
The alliance between the Chadian and French armies is not new. Chad had already shown itself to be an experienced and important ally during the French intervention in Mali. Since that joint operation, France has now “sided with Deby,” says Dickow. “France is now basically supporting a dictator who was previously not socially acceptable. He is now back in the fold of international politics.”
Background Information: 

The Franco-German brigade will be initiated in Mali

GERMANY AND FRANCE

FRENCH TROOPS SHOULD HUNT QAEDA BEYOND MALI BORDERS
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/11/france-and-mali.html

FRANCE WANTS ACTION ON CENTRAL AFRICA “SECTARIAN POISON”
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/10/france-and-central-african-republic.html
EU FUNDS MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE SAHEL UNTIL 2020
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/11/european-union-acknowledges-need-of.html

INSTABILITY IN THE SAHEL COULD PROMPT INCREASED MIGRATION AND ILLICIT TRAFFICKING WHICH IS BOUND TO SPILL OVER INTO EUROPE.

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/11/mali-sahel-and-france.html
However, in the Central African Republic, the population took a skeptical view of the foreign troops. There have been accusations that Chad “supported Seleka rebels and even trained some of them,” Dickow told DW.
A map showing the Central African republic and its neighbors
Chad and Central African Republic share a long border

“The Chadian troops in CAR have reached a size that is uncontrollable,” says Acheikh Ibn-Oumar, a Chadian opposition politician and former ambassador to the United Nations.
Chadian troops have been crossing the almost one thousand kilometer-long (620 miles) border with CAR, saying they are trying to control it,” he told DW.
Brice Kevin Kapayen, a human rights activist and member of the CAR transitional parliament, confirmed that Seleka supporters had entered CAR. “They are armed. The question is: who gave them arms?” The spokesman of the Chadian government has denied any involvement. “But he is not here. He is not in Bangui to see what is happening. We have evidence for everything we are saying,” said Kapayen.
Chad is currently a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. In negotiations, Chad argued against sending a UN peacekeeping mission to the Central African Republic. “They want to find an African solution,” says Helga Dickow.
Background Information: 
EU INVOLVEMENT IN MALI
Why the SAHEL is crucial to EUROPE'S neighborhood – and its security strategy
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/07/eu-involvement-in-mali.html


BUILDING A “COMMON EU VISION” FOR SAHEL SECURITY
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/11/hotspot-sahel.html

CAR president Djotodia shakes hands with President Deby of Chad
Behind this handshake between Chad’s President Deby (right) and Michel Djotodia, pressure was being exerted

The oil factor
Chad has built up its military strength thanks to its oil revenue, says Dickow, and this makes the country appear stable and powerful. However this appearance is deceptive. President Deby is looking for a way to secure the southern borders. He wants to make himself militarily impregnable as he did before in the Darfur conflict when rebels from Sudan threatened his hold on power. “The other crisis region which could be a gathering point for rebels who could rise up against N’Djamena is the border region between CAR and southern Chad,” Dickow said.
She sees another reason why this border is of interest for Deby. In southern Chad and in the north of the Central African Republic are oil wells. “Any trouble in this border region would also jeopardize oil production in Chad.”
Via DW

Saturday 8 February 2014

ISRAEL and HEZBOLLAH

Israel’s Oil Platforms in Jeopardy and the Samson Syndrome


Are Hezbollah and Israel preparing for the next war? Everything seems to indicate that they are, despite the fact that all logic dictates that they should not.
A number of intelligence sources who make it their business to monitor Hezbollah are saying that the Lebanese Shi'ite organization is preparing for its next war with Israel.
The sources maintain that in recent weeks there has been disturbing news coming out from south Lebanon indicating that the risk of a renewed showdown between Hezbollah and the Israeli army is growing.
According to a Wall Street Journal report last month, Hezbollah has successfully smuggled and disbursed more than 100,000 rockets, advanced anti-aircraft, anti-ship, and surface to surface missiles into Lebanon.
The same report claims that the Lebanese militia smuggled and dispersed 100,000 rockets and missiles throughout military installations in South Lebanon.
Still according to the same report, Hezbollah officials have taken to bragging that they can saturation bomb Israeli population centers. And Iranian officials boasted that the group can strike anywhere in Israel with pinpoint accuracy.
Israel’s offshore oil platforms are thought to be particularly vulnerable

The Lebanese March 14 movement has criticized Hezbollah claiming they are trying to open a new front with Israel in the Mediterranean Sea.
Israel meanwhile has threatened that the next campaign will be “broad” in response to Hezbollah’s preparations.
Indeed one may wonder why Hezbollah already, caught up in the Syrian civil war would be itching to ignite yet another front, this one much closer to home in South Lebanon where the majority of towns and villages are Shi’ite, therefore making it easier for Israel to pressure the Lebanese militant group.
Also, targeting Israel's offshore oil platforms will set a precedent in this dangerous escalation of violence in the Middle East, and place in jeopardy Lebanon’s future oil ventures in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Opening a new front in south Lebanon would certainly not be advantageous to Hezbollah nor to Lebanon, however it would benefit Syria, if things started to go bad for President Bashar Assad in Damascus. An escalation of violence along the Lebanese-Israeli border will automatically drag Israel into Syria’s civil war, and in so doing would force Washington to intervene in the conflict.
Under such a scenario South Lebanon would become inundated by the plethora of Islamists jihadi groups currently fighting in Syria, all chomping at the bits, eager to have a go at Israel now that they have a direct border with the Jewish state. The big difference in Israel’s border with Lebanon, as opposed to those with Syria, where Israeli and Syrian forces on the Golan Heights are separated by several miles of no man’s land, and even Gaza is a small distance from Israeli settlements, in northern Israel the Jewish settlements, hamlet, cities are just a few vulnerable yards from Lebanese soil and from Hezbollah fighters, and in the near future quite possibly close to groups such as al-Qaida, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and the Chechen and other Muslim Europeans and their allies.
In the end, President Bashar Assad would have kept his promise to turn the region into a hell and drag everyone down with him. It’s the Samson syndrome.
By. Claude Salhani

Thursday 6 February 2014

Don't Cry for ME-Argentina



I wish I had a nickel for every prediction of social unrest in China that I've read in the past year. Apart from the risk of stampedes at shopping malls before the Lunar New Year, China is tranquil. Meanwhile there are several dozen dead in Cairo overnight, central Bangkok remains under lockdown, street protests are out of control in Ukraine, Argentines are looting stores during power outages, and the stink of tear gas still overhangs the public squares of Istanbul from last year's demonstrations. 

There is social unrest in a lot of places other than China, and it goes together with the collapse of local currencies. The Chinese aren't rioting because they are gainfully occupied and their wages are rising 15% to 20% a year. Other so-called emerging markets are in trouble because they are teeming with people who have nothing remunerative to do. 

Most of the world's people farm for a living, but we need perhaps 1% of the world's population to grow crops at American standards of productivity. The rest are marking time. We will need less unskilled factory labor as automation takes hold, which implies dire consequences for most of the farmers who managed to get to a city and get an entry-level factory job. 

Turkey was supposed to be the poster-boy for prosperity through Muslim democracy. Instead, it has become an object lesson in emerging market mediocrity, and its currency is collapsing because it pretended to be something better than that. 

The Turks can spin polyester into sweaters for the Russian market, build washing machines for Southern Europe, and assemble cars for the Koreans. They can't build a smart phone, let alone a modern aircraft, although their military has put some down-drones in the air. There are a handful of fine universities that produce good engineers and financial types, but not enough to make a dent in the country's overall economic backwardness. 

Turkish Stock Market ETF, Past 12 Months


Turkish Lira to US Dollar


Argentine Peso to US Dollar


Turkey is in trouble because the Turks aren't very good at anything in particular, but acted as if they were the next China. They borrowed vast sums from the international market against a glorious future that was never to be. Among all of the world's big economies Turkey has the worst current account deficit, at nearly 8% of economic output, roughly where Greece was before its national bankruptcy. Investors reckoned that with high economic growth, Turkey would have no problem carrying its debt; what they did not take into account is that the growth itself was largely an illusion, a carnival of consumption and construction that depended on increasing debt in the first place. 

Of all the so-called emerging markets only China addressed the problem of a sidelined population, by methods that appear cruel, even repugnant in Western eyes. The one-child policy, surely the worst intrusion by any state into personal life in modern history, stopped the growth of the peasant population. 

By main force, China will move 700 million people - the equivalent of all Europe from the Urals to the Atlantic - to cities from the countryside within little more than a single generation. This great migration has great costs - separation of families, arbitrary removal of farmers from their land, and the occasional construction of a city in the wrong place. But Chinese household income has risen 16-fold since 1987 as a result. And the Chinese by and large do not riot because they are too busy working. There is no reserve of idle farmers to bus into the center of the capital for a few dollars a day apiece, as in Thailand. 

Unrest, to be sure, has different proximate causes in different places. The Ukrainians want to join the European Community so that they can leave Ukraine and go to places where they can earn money. The Turks object to the ruling party's stealth construction of an Islamic dictatorship with its attendant cronyism and corruption. But the common thread in all the financial and social crises which broke out during the past several months is this: the world economy has left behind large parts of the world's people. 

The Egyptians, with 40% illiteracy and a more than 90% rate of female genital mutilation, dependent on imports for half their food while 70% of the population languishes in rural poverty, are the worst off. The Turks have a future, but it is a humbler and poorer one than their leaders have promised them. The adjustment of expectations will be wrenching, perhaps violent. 

Argentina, whose currency collapsed last week, is another case in point. Blessed with great natural wealth, the Argentines have resented the oligopolies who control their resources, and try to vote themselves rich with depressing regularity. One government after another offers handouts to the querulous voters, who have learned that this practice breeds inflation and currency devaluation. The Argentine game is to be first in line at the public trough, and first in line at the foreign exchange counter to get out of local currency before it collapses yet again. 

The industrial countries have the same kind of problem just below the surface. In America, fewer than half of adults available to work with a high school education or less actually are working. 

US Labor Force - High-School Graduates


That is, only 58% of the noninstitutional adult civilian population with only a high school degree is counted in the labor force. For adults with less than a high school diploma, the labor participation rate falls to just 44%. Deduct the unemployed, and the result is that less than half of Americans without college are at work. That's why 60 million Americans are on food stamps, and why a third of all American households have at least one member receiving means-tested government subsidies. 

Meanwhile employers report shortages of skilled labor in numerous fields. It is hard to find skilled machine operators, who require the equivalent of a couple of years of college math to master the computer controls on industrial equipment, for example. 

Spain's unemployment rate remains at 26%. Spanish workers are now willing to take jobs at 700 euros (US$957) a month making clothing to compete with Chinese imports. That's roughly what better-qualified Chinese workers earn with overtime. The low end of the European labor market, that is, already has converged with the high end of the Chinese labor market. 

US Labor Force - High-School Dropouts


The risk is that the unproductive, unskilled and unemployable portions of the industrial world's people will decide to vote themselves rich. Their leaders encourage this by focusing on income inequality. That is President Obama's message as well as the consensus at the World Economic Forum last week at Davos, and it is nonsense. 

The problem isn't inequality of income, but inequality of knowledge. One pilot flying a modern military aircraft could destroy the whole of an ancient civilization. One farmer from Nebraska can replace a hundred in Egypt. A thousand years ago, everyone knew how a watermill worked; 200 years ago, most people knew how a steam engine works; how many people today know how a computer works? 

East Asia is faring better than the rest of the world in this great transformation because its culture imposes a merciless meritocracy. The West should be able to do better than this. If we can't, we can see our future in Argentina. 

 by David P Goldman

Sunday 2 February 2014

KAZAKHSTAN AND ISRAEL



Kazakhstan, Israel Deepen Military Ties


By:
 John C. K. Daly via Eurasia Daily Monitoring






Dzhaksybekov’s visit builds on rapidly deepening Kazakhstani-Israeli ties. Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev has made two official visits to Israel, in December 1995 and April 2000 . During his second visit, Nazarbaev was accompanied by a 110-member delegation, which included 15 ministers, among them then–minister of defense Sagadat Nurmagambetov; it was the Kazakhstani military’s first official visit to Israel . By 2013, Astana had dispatched a military attaché to its embassy in Israel On January 20, in Tel Aviv, Kazakhstan’s Defense Minister Adilbek Dzhaksybekov signed a military cooperation agreement with Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon formalizing military and defense industrial ties. It was Dzhaksybekov’s first trip to Israel. The Kazakhstani defense minister and delegation members spent the next two days meeting with senior executives of leading Israeli defense firms, including Israel Military Industries (IMI), Elbit Systems and Rafael. 

Background Information: 
Israelis to help build industry parks in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan–Israeli Relations
AZERBAIJAN SUPPLIES UP TO 40% OF ISRAEL'S OIL NEEDS,
Israel is one of Kazakhstan’s leading trade partners
The press service of the Ministry of Defense of Kazakhstan reported that Dzhaksybekov summed up the agreement by noting, “Kazakh-Israeli defense cooperation has reached a new stage in its development. Meeting with the President and military leadership of Israel and signing an intergovernmental agreement will open new opportunities for fruitful cooperation between the militaries of the two countries. Israel is one of Kazakhstan’s leading trade partners. Economic relations always deepen cooperation, and I hope this visit strengthens security cooperation between our two states. Israel is a small country that is known throughout the world for its capabilities” .
It should be noted that international events have also spurred Kazakhstan to diversify its arms suppliers. In particular, the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States led Kazakhstan to broaden its international military cooperation activities beyond traditional security partners such as Russia and China to more interaction with Western and other militaries. Besides Israel, these have included the US, Turkey, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, Denmark, France, Norway, Slovakia and Spain .
From the outset, Kazakhstan’s military contacts with Israel have concentrated on three areas: upgrading Soviet-era equipment, purchases of advanced weaponry, and joint production of military equipment. Kazakhstan is particularly interested in cooperating with the Israeli military and defense companies in the areas of unmanned systems, border security, command-and-control capabilities and satellite communications. IMI produces weapons systems, along with modernizing and integrating them into the armed forces; Elbit Systems develops and modernizes various weapon systems, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), avionics, radars and reconnaissance satellites; while Rafael produces various missile and aircraft technology defense systems and tactical missiles.
Israeli-Kazakhstani military cooperation
Despite such mutual interests, Israeli-Kazakhstani military cooperation efforts hit a temporary setback when, in 2004, corruption charges in connection with the sale of Israeli artillery systems by Soltam Systems eventually forced Nazarbayev to, five years later, dismiss a number of government officials, including Defense Minister Khazimurat Mayermanov for reportedly accepting bribes . The Israeli military equipment Mayermanov had purchased was reportedly substandard as well.
But bilateral defense ties overcame the problem, as Israeli military companies played to their strengths for a number of contracts, including upgrading Kazakhstan’s roughly 600 Soviet T-72 tanks as well as the avionics of the Kazakhstani air force’s Sukhoi-25 fighters . The deal fits in well with Israel’s efforts to increase its arms exports, which grew from $2.58 billion in 2001 to $7.4 billion in 2010—a nearly 300-percent increase . Kazakhstan currently builds, under Israeli license, Aibat 120-milimeter self-propelled mortars, Naiza (based on the LAR-160) multiple rocket launch system (MLRS), and Semser 122-mm howitzers. Moreover, Kazakhstan’s arms industry is now hoping to sell Israeli-designed artillery systems, produced under joint armament manufacturing agreements, to other Central Asian countries.
As for future areas of Kazakhstani-Israeli military collaboration, Israeli government and industry officials cite UAV drone systems, border security, command-and-control capabilities and satellite communications as leading sectors of interest to Astana.
But the two countries’ bilateral relations are also influenced by divergent political views, particularly Astana’s warm ties with its southern Caspian neighbor Iran. The growing relations between Iran and Kazakhstan have made Israel concerned, leading to a June 2009 visit by Israeli President Shimon Peres to Kazakhstan with requests that Astana halt its sale of uranium ore to the Islamic Republic. In turn, Nazarbaev stated that Kazakhstan has not been supplying Iran with nuclear material .
Such hiccups aside, the relationship seems destined to flourish. Israel builds influence in one of the Caspian’s rising petro-states, while Kazakhstan gains access to one of the world’s cutting-edge military powers—a strategic win-win situation for both sides.