Sunday 28 February 2016

CRASHING OIL PRICES




 THE CONSPIRACY TO FREE  SOCIETY  FROM DEBT SLAVERY

With cheap gasoline at the pump, and increased interest rates, you’d think we were just recovering from a bad financial hang-over, but something much more sinister is at place. Don’t worry though, there is a happy ending. A revolution is happening before our eyes.

Oversupply is not the reason that oil is dropping in price faster that Exxon Corporation can say “uh-oh.” Canadian oil is dropping even lower, in some cases to $8 a barrel. Russia is not suffering from these falling oil prices, either, as the mainstream press would convey. Similarly, despite the recent Fed hike in the US interest rate, which is the first in more than a decade, this does not herald an economic turning point, at least not for the debt-slavery system that is currently in place, but that is crumbling. The magic-money system of debt and quantitative easing based on the petro-dollar is on its knees. This was an act of desperation.

Falling oil prices are not driving Moscow to expand its austerity program in an attempt to balance an expected deficit of $38.6 billion in 2016. You can be sure President Vladimir Putin was at least three chess moves ahead of tumbling oil prices. Marek Dabrowski, co-founder of the Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw and a professor at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, recently ran the numbers on the oil-exporting economies and discovered a paradox. Russia is not even close to being the most oil-dependent of these countries.

It gets even more interesting though. China has announced that the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is up and running as promised late last year. Members of the bank include China, Russia, Denmark, Egypt, Iran, Italy, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Kuwait, and others – noticeably absent is the United States of America.
Moreover, the BRICS Bank, headed by Russia, is also moving forward. A recent Forbes article, titled, “With Russian Official Said to Head BRICS Bank, Will Dollars Get Dissed?” invokes the underlying theme of the silent revolution happening under our noses.

Add to the picture – commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt. For the first time in known history, few cargo ships are in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving, reports ZeroHedge. Some claim that shipping companies are demanding to be paid in Chinese yuan, and this is why no goods are moving.

Add these little tidbits:

§  The Swiss National Bank decoupled from the Euro.
§  Former Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts claimed the Federal Reserve doesn’t have any more gold. That’s why they could only give Germany 5 tons of the 1,500 tons it’s holding. In fact, when Germany asked for this delivery, the Fed said no.
§  China has been dumping US debt.
§  Commerce – that is dry goods going from other countries to the US as measured by the Baltic Dry Index, has been greatly slowed if not stopped.
§  China and Russia have been buying up physical gold.
§  12,000 oil-smuggling trucks have been caught taking Iraq’s ‘liquid gold’ into Turkey for use via ISIS.
§  Russia now has access to cheap oil from Iran.
§  Countries have been clamoring to exit the cabal banking system propped up by US Mafioso banks and criminal drug cartels, as well as a rigged stock market.
§  The US Stock market took a nose dive at the beginning of the year.
§  As Matt Taibi wrote for Rolling Stone last year in an article titled, “Everything is Rigged, Continued: European Commission Raids Oil Companies in Price Fixing Probe,”: “the European Commission regulators yesterday raided the offices of oil companies in London, the Netherlands and Norway as part of an investigation into possible price-rigging in the oil markets. The targeted companies include BP, Shell and the Norwegian company Statoil. The Guardian explains that officials believe that oil companies colluded to manipulate pricing data.”

To many, it is old news that the US Corporate government is bankrupt. The new news is how they are being taken down systematically by the ‘white hats’ and other benevolent interests within our world organizations that are tired of being pushed around by criminals using the petro-dollar, and fiat money.
These signs tell of a larger picture.

Secret bank bailouts are soon to be a thing of the past. So are bank bail-ins. Industry corruption such as the Fifa ‘bribe’ which was funneled via HSBC in Hong Kong came from a US bank fined for a link to Colombian drug cartel will continue to be exposed, and huge fines will be paid. In other cases, bankers representing the cabal will be fired or put in jail.

At the end of 2015, the CEO of Brazil’s largest investment bank was arrested. This was accompanied by huge layoffs at major banks across the US. Regions bank has announced 260 layoffs for 2016. Bank of America, Citibank and other cabal-fronts will also lay off thousands of people this year. As part of a crackdown on corruption, China has also uncovered the largest “underground bank” in the country. Over 370 individuals involved in the scheme have been arrested, according to the People’s Daily, for handling 400 billion yuan ($64 billion) in illegal foreign-exchange transactions. It seems the crime syndicate had tentacles everywhere. Though slow, the preliminary schedule for mass arrests and for the re-chartering of the world’s fraudulent banking system is underway.

With cyber warfare becoming part of leaked news daily, the strategic moves of Putin, and the new banking institutions coming into the fore, we may finally see the end of Cabal rule.


Delivered by The Daily Sheeple

Saturday 27 February 2016

THE CASHLESS SOCIETY


THE WAR ON CASH: A COUNTRY BY COUNTRY GUIDE

The war has been waged through mainstream propaganda outlets, TV advertisements and even children’s games.

We’ve heard cash is dirtied by drug dealing, tarnished by terrorism, tainted by tax evasion (heaven forbid!) and just plain dirty. Not to mention so outdated.

Background Information: 

click here: 





Just recently NORWAY has jumped aboard the cashless society agenda with DNB, the country’s largest bank, calling for a total end to cash. The story only sounds shocking only to people who haven’t heard the similar stories from SWEDEN or DENMARK or India or Israel or any of the dozens of other countries whose banksters and (bankster-controlled) governments have openly lusted after a world of completely trackable, completely bank-controlled transactions.

But all of these stories, reported piecemeal here and there over the years, don’t give the full story about how this “war on cash” is being waged on every continent and in every country by the same banksters that stand to benefit from a cashless world. Let’s fix that by compiling a list of examples from around the world of how cash payments are being regulated, restricted and phased out. The list below will be updated as new stories come in.

THE CASHLESS SOCIETY LIST



ARGENTINA – ARGENTINA’S currency crisis has been known for some time. In short, ARGENTINIANS don’t trust the peso and are willing to pay premium for any currency they perceive as “more stable,” especially US dollars which are traded on the black market as “blue dollars” at prices far exceeding the official exchange rate. That’s why ARGENTINA has been tipped for some time as a country that is likely to go cashless sooner than later, with a 2014 report from the Bitcoin Market Opportunity Index ranking ARGENTINA as the most likely jurisdiction to replace sovereign currency with bitcoin. ARGENTINIANS have reason to be wary about this New Monetary Order, however; in a move described as “an eerie glimpse of what a cashless society enables” the ARGENTINIAN government mandated that banks report every credit card purchase made in the country directly to the tax authorities and added a 15 percent tax surcharge every time a purchase is made outside the country using a credit card issued by an ARGENTINE bank.

AUSTRALIA – Late last year the Westpac banking group issued a “Cash Free Report” touting the highly self-serving finding that “Over half (53 per cent) of payments currently made in AUSTRALIA are cashless” (using Westpac online banking services like their card-less ATMs, no doubt). The report goes on to predict that AUSTRALIA will be cash free by 2022. Meanwhile, the government is readying a cashless welfare system that will allow the government to control what the money is spent on. What could possibly go wrong?

BELGIUM – In 2014 the BELGIAN government passed new restrictions on cash payments: cash can no longer be used to pay for real estate, and there is a 3000 euro limit on cash payments for other assets (unless purchase second hand).

CANADA – In 2007 the CANADIAN government stopped allowing payment of taxes in cash at government service centers. In 2010 Passport CANADA followed suit. In 2011 56% of Canadians polled said they were happy to live in a bankster-controlled cashless society so the country killed the penny in 2012 and the Royal CANADIAN Mint started pimping the “MintChip” as a new form of electronic payment that will be “better than cash.” The Mint ended the program in 2014 but the Great White North is still on track to be a cashless society in the coming years.

CHINA – The People’s Bank of CHINA, citing the need to “reduce costs, curb crimes and money laundry, facilitate transactions and boost central bank’s control on money supply and circulation” set up a research team in 2014 “to study application scenarios for digital currency and strive for an early roll out.”

DENMARK – In the 1990s about 80% of DANISH retail purchases were made with cash, but these days it’s more like 25%. But if the DANISH government has its way, that number will be 0% by 2030. That’s the year the DANISH government has set for the complete elimination of paper money in DENMARK.

ECUADOR – Last year ECUADOR became the first government to launch a digital currency completely administered and controlled by a central bank. Called the Dinero Electronico, the currency can be purchased with cash, stored in electronic wallets on a phone, and can be exchanged by text message.

EU – The head of the EU Anti-Fraud Office Giovanni Kessler, came out earlier this year to call for abolishing the 500 euro note because they “can make the life of fraudsters much easier.” He also noted that a more widespread adoption of electronic payment systems would be better for his office because “Traceability is paramount in fighting corruption and fraud.”

FRANCE – In the wake of the Charlie Hebdo attacks last year, the FRENCH government stepped up its war on cash. In March of last year, FRENCH Finance Minister Michel Sapin declared it necessary to “fight against the use of cash and anonymity in the FRENCH economy” in order to combat “low-cost terrorism.” As of September 2015 it is illegal for FRENCH citizens to make purchases exceeding 1000 euros in cash.

GERMANY – In a rather abrupt turnaround from a 2014 Bundesbank paper on “The Irreplaceability of Cash,” the GERMAN Finance Ministry (perhaps egged on by the country’s leading Keynesian economist) is looking into a 5000 euro cap on all cash payments. And although GERMANY is still a cash-based society, things are changing; a 2014 survey found that 34% of the population makes purchases electronically already and 20% can envision making all their purchases via smartphone payment systems in the future.

HONG KONG – When it launched in 1997, the HONG KONG Mass Transit Railway’s Octopus Card was just the second contactless smart card system in the world (after SOUTH KOREA’S UPass). Although originally used to pay for journeys on public transit, it can now be used at convenience stores, vending machines, supermarkets, photo booths and other retail outlets. In 2004 all metered parking spaces in HONG KONG were converted to cashless meters that required Octopus Cards for payment.

INDIA – INDIA is one of the most cash-dependent economies in the world with a cash-to-GDP ratio of 12%, almost four times that of fellow BRICS nations BRAZIL and SOUTH AFRICA.  But it won’t be for long if the INDIAN government has its way. Last June the INDIAN Ministry of Finance posted a draft proposal to its website for facilitating the rise of cashless payments in the country. In his 2015 budget speech the Finance Minister declared: “One way to curb the flow of black money is to discourage transactions in cash. Now that a majority of Indians has or can have, a RUPAY debit card. I therefore, proposes to introduce soon several measure that will incentivize credit or debit card transactions and disincentives cash transaction.”

IRELAND – A 2013 paper from the Central Bank of IRELAND lamented IRELAND’S slow adoption of electronic payments and over-reliance on cheques, noting “IRELAND could save up to €1bn per year by migrating to more efficient [i.e. electronic] payment instruments.” Later that year, the Central Bank launched a National Payments plan to help facilitate the transition and kicked off a €1m national marketing campaign to encourage the migration to electronic payments. The scale of the campaign surprised many, with the Irish Independent pointing out that “It’s a major advertising spend in the current climate, where a big-promotion budget spend is considered to be in the region of €500,000 outside of the big global blue-chips.” Late last year the Cork City Centre Forum attempted to take the lead in the cashless transition by launching the “Cork Cash Out” campaign aiming “to encourage consumers to ween off cash and opt-in for electronic-only transactions instead.”

ISRAEL – In 2014 a special committee headed by ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Chief of Staff Harel Locker released a report examining how to reduce the use of cash in the country. The report advocates reforms (including restrictions and limits on cash transactions) as part of a strategy whose aim is “reduced use of cash, reduced use of endorsed checks, and increased use of electronic means of payment.”

ITALY In 2011 newly appointed ITALIAN Prime Minister Mario Monti made cash payments over 1000 euro illegal. “What we need is a revolution in ITALIANS’ thinking” Monti told reporters as he announced the emergency decree which was put into law before it was even formally voted on in parliament.

KENYA – Last year the KENYAN government awarded a contract to MasterCard to administer a smart card that can be used to pay for government services and receive welfare payments. Anne Waiguru of the Ministry of Devolution and Planning explained: “Uwezo Fund beneficiaries, Youth and Women Funds disbursements, National Youth Service, Social welfare government cash transfers to families, government food subsidies, hunger safety net cash transfers and cash transfers to orphaned children will be disbursed through the cards,” neglecting to add that the card also gives MasterCard access to the biometric details of 170 million potential customers.

MEXICO In 2013 the MEXICAN government banned cash payments of more than 500,000 pesos for real estate and more than 200,000 pesos for cars, jewelry or lottery tickets.

NETHERLANDS – In 2013 the mayors of Almere, Rotterdam and Maastricht engaged in a publicity stunt to promote a campaign encouraging the public to abandon cash. They spent a week without spending any cash, relying solely on debit cards for purchases. The campaign is part of a long term trend away from cash and toward debit payments in many supermarkets and other businesses around the country.

NORWAY – Late last week Trond Bentestuen, a senior executive at NORWAY’S largest bank, complained to the VG Newspaper that the NORWEGIAN central bank “can only account for 40 percent” of the NORWEGIAN kroner in circulation, meaning “that 60 percent of money usage is outside of any control.” There’s only one conclusion, according to Bentestuen: “There are so many dangers and disadvantages associated with cash, we have concluded that it should be phased out.” Don’t worry, though, the nation’s Finance Ministry says it has “no plans to change the law in this area”…for now.

PHILIPPINES – In the PHILIPPINES, the government has launched an “E-Peso” project with the explicit aim of “transforming communities into cashless societies.” Touted as “a digital/virtual currency based on the PHILIPPINE Peso” its main selling point (according to the E-Peso’s own website) is that: “Since E-Peso transactions are completely digital, everything will automatically be recorded onto the customer’s account activity log.” The initiative is funded by infamous CIA front USAID, which “has awarded a US$25-million, five-year project to a company called Chemonics to support the PHILIPPINE government in the promotion and adoption of e-payments in the PHILIPPINES.”

SAUDI ARABIA – A MasterCard report on “The Cashless Journey” noted that by increasing the share of debit card transactions in the economy between 2006 and 2011, SAUDI ARABIA was moving at a faster than average pace toward a cashless society. Commenting on the report, Khalid Hariry of MasterCard noted: “SAUDI ARABIA is indeed moving at a better than average pace on its cashless journey, which has been significantly spurred along by government leadership. Regulation mandating wages assignment of employees’ to bank accounts has vastly increased access to electronic payment methods for the SAUDI population over a short period of time. These changes, coming alongside initiatives to spur acceptance, and a push to migrate payments made during the Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages, can be expected to shift substantial share of consumer payments away from cash in the coming years.”

SPAIN – Citing budgetary austerity and the need to clamp down on tax fraud the SPANISH government banned cash payments of more than 2,500 euros in 2012.

SWEDEN – Last year Stockholm’s KTH Royal Institute of Technology released a report stating that the country is on track to completely eliminating cash transactions in the foreseeable future. Noting that there are now only 80 billion Swedish crowns in circulation in the economy (down from 106 just six years ago), the report highlights how digital person-to-person payment technology “Swish” (developed in collaboration with DANISH banks) is already transforming the country’s banking sector, where there are now entire banks that do not accept cash. Meanwhile, the SWEDISH public is being urged to stop using cash by no less a cultural icon than ABBA’s Björn Ulveaus, who brags that the ABBA museum is now a cashless institution.

URUGUAY – Under the “Financial Inclusion Law” which took effect in May 2015 the URUGUAYAN government has banned all cash payments over $5,000, thus requiring all property and vehicle purchases to go through the banking system. This is part of a wave of such legislation throughout LATIN AMERICA hailed as a way of “giving the people what they need” (i.e. access to banking) even when (as the very same report notes) “those on the edges of the financial system are distrustful of banks” especially in URUGUAY.

UK – In 2014 cashless payments surpassed cash payments for the first time in the UK, with research (from cashless payment provider Kalixo Pro) suggesting that the average BRIT only carries £17.79 in cash at any time and 1 in 4 will walk away if a business doesn’t accept card payment. London buses went cashless in 2014 and just last year the Bank of England’s chief economist made the case for negative interest rates and abolishing cash.


Via Daily alternative 

Monday 22 February 2016

ISLAM VERSUS ISLAM



SHIA AND SUNNI SECTS

Currently ISLAM is experiencing what CHRISTIANS experienced in 1529 when the tug of war raged between ROMAN CATHOLICS and LUTHERAN PROTESTANTS


By SHAHID JAVED BURKI via Project Syndicate

Turmoil has seized much of the MUSLIM world. In SYRIA, a brutal war has already taken 250,000 lives, displaced half of the country’s 21 million people, and sent a million refugees to EUROPE seeking asylum. In YEMEN, the HOUTHI tribe has risen up against the government, and are now facing SAUDI-led airstrikes. Conflicts like these reflect a number of factors, the most prominent of which are the conflicts between ISLAM’S two sects, SUNNI and SHIA, and between fundamentalists and reformists.

Alewite Falg
SYRIAN President BASHAR AL-ASSAD’S ALAWITE regime enjoys the support of SHIA powers, especially IRAN, whose regional influence depends on a SHIA regime remaining in power. And that is precisely why SUNNI powers – most prominently SAUDI ARABIA – are committed to toppling that regime. YEMEN’S government, by contrast, is SUNNI-led, and thus has SAUDI ARABIA’S support, hence the bombings of the IRAN-backed SHIA HOUTHIS. Unsurprisingly, tensions between IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA have intensified lately, a trend that culminated in the severing of diplomatic relations over SAUDI ARABIA’S execution of a popular SHIA cleric.

Background Information: SHIA VERSUS SUNNI



Click here:





THE SUNNI-SHIA SCHISM GOES BACK TO THE YEAR 632

The chaos fueled by these conflicts – and by instability in other countries in the region, such as AFGHANISTAN and IRAQ –has enabled the rise of some truly contemptible forces, beginning with the Islamic State (ISIS). That group has gained so much influence that US generals have asked President BARACK OBAMA to authorize additional troops to join the fight against it. Moreover, there are reports that the UNITED STATES may postpone the withdrawal of its troops from AFGHANISTAN, where an increasingly brutal war against the government has enabled the TALIBAN to gain territory and created an opening for ISIS to become active. ISIS has also penetrated PAKISTAN.

The religious element of the conflicts raging in the Middle East today is a major reason why they have been so difficult to defuse. The SUNNI-SHIA schism goes back to the year 632, when the Prophet MUHAMMAD died without indicating how the fast-growing ISLAMIC community should pick his successor. Those who became the SHIA believed that the position should remain in the prophet’s immediate family and supported the selection of ALI IBN ABI TALIB, the prophet’s cousin and son-in-law. Those who became the SUNNI supported the choice of the community’s senior members: ABU BAKR, who had served as a close adviser to MUHAMMAD.

Today, most of the world’s 1.6 billion MUSLIMS are SUNNIS. They are widely dispersed, spread over a vast swath stretching from MOROCCO to INDONESIA. After decades of migration to EUROPE and NORTH AMERICA, there are also strong SUNNI communities in several WESTERN countries.

THE SUNNI-SHIA CRESCENT

The SHIA number 225 million and are geographically much more concentrated. IRAN, with 83 million, is the world’s largest SHIA-majority country, followed by PAKISTAN with 30 million and INDIA with 25 million. The “SHIA crescent” – including IRAN and its immediate neighbors AFGHANISTAN, AZERBAIJAN, IRAQ, PAKISTAN, and TURKEY – accounts for 70% of the sect’s total population.

A fresco painting from the Chehel Sotun Pavillion in Isfahan,
Iran, depicts Persian warfare during the Safavid dynasty period.
This geographic distribution is the result of a series of historical accidents, a combination of conquests and (often forced) conversions. Though ISLAM arrived in IRAN by way of conquest in 637-651, the country did not officially adopt SHI’ISM for nearly another millennium, with SHAH ISMAIL I of the SAFAVID dynasty undertaking in 1501 the forcible conversion of the country’s SUNNI population.

SHI’ISM spread through SOUTH ASIA as a result of repeated military incursions by PERSIA’S rulers into AFGHANISTAN and INDIA. Today, that region’s SHIA population is concentrated in urban areas, and largely comprises the descendants of the soldiers and other state functionaries who stayed behind in the conquered territories.

SUNNI ISLAM, for its part, was first spread through SOUTH ASIA by the SUFI saints, most of whom came from CENTRAL ASIA and preached a more tolerant and inclusive form of ISLAM than that of the ARABIAN PENINSULA. But the rising influence of SAUDI ARABIA after the 1970s, when skyrocketing oil prices boosted the country’s wealth considerably, helped to spur the spread of the Kingdom’s dominant and austere WAHHABI sect.

Background Information: ORIGIN OF WAHHABISM



Click here: 





Beyond attracting millions of MUSLIM workers from SOUTH ASIA, SAUDI ARABIA financed the establishment of WAHABBI madrassas along the AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN border. The TALIBAN (which, in ARABIC, means “students”) in both AFGHANISTAN and PAKISTAN are the products of these seminaries, as are militias like LASHKAR-E-TAIBA and LASHKAR-E-JHANGVI, which have mounted attacks on religious sites in INDIA.

TODAY’S TURMOIL REFLECTS A CLASH OF WORLDVIEWS THAT IS BOTH THEOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL.

Conservative SUNNIS, such as those who adhere to fundamentalist WAHHABISM, favor theocratic authoritarian rule, whereas more moderate SUFI SUNNIS would prefer liberal and inclusive political systems. The same is true of the SHIA. IRAN has long stuck to theocratic rule, but now seems to be looking toward reform. Whether the sectarian divide can ever be bridged most likely depends on whether reformists can gain sufficient influence in both camps. If not, the conflict will continue to rage, accelerating the breakdown of regional order we now see.


Saturday 20 February 2016

WHERE IS TURKEY POLITICALLY HEADING ?


TURKEY, BETWEEN IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA

The new international openings towards IRAN introduce a possibility of economic cooperation between ANKARA and TEHRAN, two regional powers so far divided

The lifting of sanctions against IRAN by the UNITED STATES and EUROPE could introduce a new commercial and political balance in the MIDDLE EAST, namely in SYRIA.

When it comes to the resolution of the SYRIAN conflict, TURKEY and IRAN, historical rivals in the region, are on opposite positions. While ANKARA has worked for some time on overthrowing SYRIAN president BASHAR AL ASSAD, TEHRAN, in line with RUSSIA, moves in the opposite direction.

TURKEY, moreover, is in disagreement with the UNITED STATES because of WASHINGTON'S collaboration with the KURDISH Democratic Party (PYD) in the fight against ISIL, but is also part of the anti-ISLAMIC State (ISIL) coalition. Since July, it allowed WASHINGTON to use the INCIRLIK military air base for its air strikes against ISIL.

(If TURKEY is really part of the anti ISIL coalition is debatable, for TURKEY clearly seems to have a double edged sword policy on this issue.)

While tensions with MOSCOW have risen, after TURKISH aviation shot down a RUSSIAN military jet on 24 November, in the recent confrontation between Iran and SAUDI ARABIA after the execution in RIYADH of SHIA SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR, TURKEY tried to maintain a position of balance between the two ISLAMIC powers.

Tension between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN has the potential to deepen the problems already existing in the region. It is therefore important to act sensibly and leave the doors to diplomacy open. The region does not need new conflict, but agreement and collaboration. TURKEY is ready to take any action to overcome problems between the two countries, TURKEYS foreign minister emphasized in a recent public address.

ANKARA, A SYRIA HOSTAGE?

Since the beginning of the civil war in SYRIA, the policy of the TURKISH government has been to favor the SUNNI MUSLIM side. Turkey supported a government with a MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD majority. When this failed, an unspoken alliance was established with SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR.

TURKISH MIDDLE EASTERN policy has been taken hostage by SYRIA. Consequently TURKEY has befriended countries whose policies agree with those of ANKARA in SYRIA, and made enemies of all the others.

Now, many think that ANKARA'S alliance with RIYADH, just when IRAN is entering a new economic and political phase, could drag TURKEY into a dangerous situation, affected by religious sectarianism.


THE "STRATEGIC" RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND SAUDI ARABIA

The change of leadership in SAUDI ARABIA,

in January 2015, has led to a new configuration of the SUNNI power in the MIDDLE EAST. TURKISH President, RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, visited King SALMAN BIN ABDUL-AZIZ AL SAUD three times in one year, giving his support to the SAUDI military campaign in YEMEN. At the end of December both countries, considering "the critical period the region was crossing" and their "brotherhood, friendship and strategic partnership", have agreed the formation of a "superior council for strategic cooperation".
An agreement which held major significance when ERDOĞAN, returning from RIYADH, said that TURKEY and ISRAEL, an historic enemy of IRAN, "need" each other.

Background Information: 

ISRAEL AND IRAN

click here:



This announcement came after a much discussed preliminary agreement was reached in mid-December to renew diplomatic ties between the two countries, interrupted in 2010 after the military intervention by ISRAELI military on the TURKISH ship MAVI MARMARA.

If ERDOĞAN'S approaching of King SALMAN was aimed at increasing cooperation in solving regional issues, then the SAUDI-IRANIAN crisis has complicated TURKEY'S regional plans, especially those in SYRIA.


Trio Infernale
The military efforts of RIYADH to put pressure on TEHRAN don't seem to have produced the desired effect. Nor did the attempt to diplomatically isolate IRAN, in the wake of the attacks and protests made against SAUDI representatives after SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR was condemned to death. "The results achieved by the SAUDIS in urging their allies to break diplomatic ties with IRAN are a long way from damaging TEHRAN", says FEHIM TAŞTEKIN, a MIDDLE EAST expert journalist at RADIKAL daily. "Only BAHRAIN, SUDAN, SOMALIA and DJIBOUTI broke ties with IRAN. TURKEY only recalled the IRANIAN ambassador to ANKARA as a warning.”

In this context WASHINGTON'S position is fundamental. According to TAŞTEKIN, "The UNITED STATES found that cooperating with IRAN in IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN was useful and they were forced to include TEHRAN in the talks in GENEVA and VIENNA, in order to overcome the deadlock in SYRIA.”

THE TURKEY - IRAN RELATIONS

Despite being difficult, relations between ANKARA and TEHRAN should necessarily remain of mutual understanding, for the sake of economic and commercial interest above all.

Background Information: 

TURKEY AND IRAN

click here:



Iran is the second country after RUSSIA from which TURKEY buys natural gas, which covers almost 20 percent of its energy consumption. After the crisis with RUSSIA, TURKEY is exploring new alternative suppliers, even though interruption of supply of natural gas from RUSSIA (64 percent of ANKARA'S requirement) does not seem imminent.

The most optimistic forecast believes that the positive effect of lifting sanctions on the Iranian economy will as also be felt in TURKEY. The volume of trade and the amount of oil bought by ANKARA is expected to rise. In the past, about half its requirements came from IRAN; under the sanctions, the oil import from IRAN went down to about 31 percent.

The new opening to IRAN could have positive effects on the building industry, which has been in serious difficulties for some years in the MIDDLE EAST. The slowdown in the sector in LIBYA, IRAQ and RUSSIA would encourage entrepreneurs to look for IRANIAN projects.

According to the local press the first contacts have already been made four months ago. "TURKEY has been close to IRAN during the period of the sanctions with about 200 companies investing in various sectors', says BILGIN AYGÜL, chairman of the TURKISH-IRANIAN Labour Council. He foresees a turnover between the two countries to reach $30 billion within a few years.

Could an increase in IRAN'S influence become a disadvantage for TURKEY? According to AHMET KASIM HAN, of the Research centre for economy and foreign policy (EDAM), it depends on the decisions ANKARA will make.

Han believes that TURKEY could become important to TEHRAN for delivering natural gas towards EUROPE, and adds that "there is no doubt IRAN will be more self-confident in the region. In SYRIA as in YEMEN, however, rivalry between TURKEY and IRAN will be inevitable, although it will be in most likelihood a 'controllable tension' unless they decide to stay only on one side. Maintaining their position in SYRIA, taking a position against IRAN in IRAQ, openly supporting SAUDI ARABIA... It will all depend on which decisions are made.

Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) from the article originally written by Fazıla Mat via  Balcanicaucaso.org