Wednesday 30 October 2013

GEO-INT TRADE-CRAFT: “HUMAN GEOGRAPHY”




SOCIAL MEDIA: THE TOOL FOR ACTIVITY BASED INTELLIGENCE

  • The ROMANS invented roads to move armies and became an empire
  • The BRITISH invented railroads to move natural resource and became and empire
  • The UNITED STATES OF AMERICA invented the data-highway to gather information and subsequently became an empire   
Source: Def Systems 

Geography and social media analytics represent the latest tradecraft within Defense Department and the intelligence community, incorporating “human geography” into geospatial intelligence. For instance, the 2013-2017 NATIONAL GEOSPATIAL-INTELLIGENCE AGENCY (NGA) Strategy calls for using both traditional and non-traditional (e.g., human geography and social media) geospatial sources.

Case in point: When the SOMALI terrorist group al-Shabaab massacred more than 60 civilians at a shopping mall in Nairobi, KENYA, in September, they tweeted live during the attack trying to explain and justify the carnage. While al-Shabaab’s use of Twitter to communicate its motives to a worldwide audience was brazen, it was not surprising. Jihadists like al-Shabaad with links to al-Qaeda are increasingly turning to social media sites to exchange ideas and publicize their beliefs, according to a 2013 report from the New AMERICA Foundation.

“It is only a matter of time before terrorists begin routinely using Twitter, Instagram, and other services in ongoing operations,” concluded the report. “We have already seen this in a limited manner from al-Shabaab, which tweets its #JihadDispatches on recent battles.”
Social media platforms such as blogs, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube have “flattened control over the production of online jihadi media,” enabling jihadist groups to share news items, original articles and essays, tribute videos and even Islamic-sanctioned music, the report revealed. “Those so inclined can talk about jihad all day on the Web, even if they are geographically dispersed,” the report added.


LEVERAGE OPEN SOURCE DATA 

In response, U.S. defense and intelligence agencies are monitoring Arabic-language jihadist Web forums and other online communications in order to “map” the “human terrain” of terror groups based on a treasure trove of open source data available on the Internet. Among the emerging tools is a discipline called Activity Based Intelligence.

SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYTICS AND CONTENT CATEGORIZATION TECHNOLOGY

SAS Federal, a business analytics and software services company, is helping U.S. intelligence agencies to leverage open source data to better understand the motivation of jihadist groups, where they operate and what they are doing. Social media analytics and content categorization technology from SAS coupled with data mining capabilities are used to scan more than 20 million websites, including blogs, chats, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, while “natural language processing” extracts online discussions in ARABIC, Farsi and 28 other native languages and dialects.

All this is used to support geospatial intelligence gathering and analysis. The technology is designed to enable the identification of “unknown unknowns.”


“With a couple of mouse clicks, an NGA analyst, as an example, could look at a whole category of unknown neighborhoods or villages and see the latest conversations and discover that there is a local reference to a neighborhood we did not have on the map,” said Marc Kriz, an account executive with SAS Federal’s National Security Group. “We’re constantly extracting conversations about things like unknown hospitals and clinics, schools, mosques, neighborhoods, villages and governance. We’re discovering a rich plethora of geospatial data vis-a-vis social media.”

“It sounds funny but it’s very difficult to know when a hotel changes, for instance, from a Best Western to a Hilton,” added Scott Simmons, CACI’s executive director of Geospatial Solutions. “You can try and search on websites every day and hope that they have that updated information. But, shockingly, someone in Nairobi is going to tweet about it and send a message that the hotel’s Best Western sign came down.”

DIGITAL MULTICULTURAL AWARENESS 

Kriz said there are often local slang words used by indigenous populations for neighborhoods or villages that are identified by social media analytics and have been subsequently added to the U.S. geospatial intelligence names database. Based on an assessment of the “patterns of life” in a particular neighborhood or village, analysts can better understand those patterns and linkages. For instance, through open source media, analysts leveraging social network analytics can discover conversations about mosques in a particular part of the world that helps them to identify Imams and their followers, he said.

“Sentiment analysis” is another area of geospatial intelligence that is important to some DOD and intelligence community customers, according to Rebecca Garcia, director of intelligence solutions for SAS Federal. “We can look at how unrest may be spread through an area or within a human geography,” said Garcia, noting that the Arab Spring, the revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests (both non-violent and violent) that have rocked the MIDDLE EAST in recent years, have been fueled by social media.
This kind of analysis seeks to extract and identify popular, negative or neutral sentiment from open source content.

“ACTIVITY BASED INTELLIGENCE” ENHANCES AND BREAKS THE LINEARITY OF INTEL GATHERING PROCESSES 

Understanding the “Human Domain,” defined as the presence, activities, social structure or organization, networks and relationships, motivation, intent, vulnerabilities and capabilities of individuals or groups is a vital part of Activity Based Intelligence.  ABI, a multi-intelligence approach to analysis embraced by U.S. intelligence agencies, is a discipline in which analysis and subsequent collection is focused on the activity and transactions associated with an entity, a population or an area of interest. It is based on persistent collection of intelligence over a broad area from multiple sources.

“ABI is really a new tradecraft that builds on top of something that’s been around for awhile called ‘patterns of life,’” said Jordan Becker, vice president and general manager for GEOINT-ISR at BAE Systems. “As a new tradecraft, it really moves away from some of the traditional processes such as tasking, collection, processing, exploitation and dissemination. What ABI does is [it] enhances and breaks the linearity of that process.”

GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE AND HUMAN DOMAIN ANALYTICS 

Geospatial intelligence, coupled with human domain analytics, is the foundation of ABI. In December 2012, BAE won a multi-year, $60 million contract to provide ABI systems, tools and support to NGA. Using a computer-assisted problem solving methodology, ABI analysts leverage big data to spot trends and patterns of activity when they intersect, enabling the identification of “unknown unknowns” and more predictive intelligence that anticipates targets and threats. As NGA COO Ellen McCarthy has stated, ABI “reveals what we don’t know and helps us find what doesn’t want to be found.”
McCarthy could not be reached for comment for this story.
“The ultimate goal is better intelligence,” added Becker of SAS. “It’s not about how many more reports you can generate or how many more items you can identify on a map, whether it’s relevant or not. It’s can you really get closer to intent and help that analyst formulate better hypotheses.”

ADVANCED INFORMATION SYSTEMS ALLOWS ANALYSTS TO BE PROACTIVE RATHER THAN REACTIVE

Mike Manzo, director of geospatial solutions for General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems, said ABI allows analysts to be proactive rather than reactive. “ABI has been around in different forms in the past, but what has made it more attractive now is computing power,” said Manzo. “The cloud enables you to have those real-time capabilities where you have access to a lot more data and computing power.
“As processing power increases and smarter algorithms are developed,” he added, “we’re going to start to see more intelligence systems infer activity based on a myriad of different data coming in.”

Sunday 27 October 2013

IS TURKEY SWERVING EASTWARD?




THE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM DEAL WITH CHINA AND THE CRISIS WITH NATO

By Gallia Lindstrauss via INSS

TURKEY’S announcement that the CHINESE company CPMIEC had won the tender for the purchase of a long range air defense system came as a surprise to TURKEY’S NATO partners – even though prior rumors had indicated this would be the decision – and was met with much disapproval. While TURKISH President Abdullah Gul said that the decision was not final and the deal had yet to be finalized and signed, the terms of the tender obligate TURKEY to move ahead with CHINA. Thus, it seems that it will take more than the current level of condemnation by NATO members to persuade TURKEY to change its mind. At the same time, the deal, along with previous examples of TURKEY-CHINA military cooperation, should not be viewed as proof that TURKEY and CHINA are establishing strategic relations, as they have fundamental political and strategic differences of opinion that prevent any real partnership.

ERDOGAN: THE BRILLIANT TACTICIAN? 

The CHINESE manufacturer outbid an AMERICAN company (the makers of the Patriot system), a RUSSIAN company (the maker of the S-300 and S-400), and an ITALIAN-FRENCH consortium (the maker of the SAMP/T Aster-30). Moreover, the decision was made at the Defense Industry Executive Committee, chaired by TURKISH Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and this indicates his full support for the decision.

According to TURKEY, three main reasons led it to opt for the CHINESE bid. First of all, finances: the price quoted by the CHINESE company was some $1 billion less than the others (the TURKS stipulated a maximum of $4 billion for the deal; the CHINESE bid came in at $3.4 billion). Second, CHINA is willing to include the transfer of technology and some of the production to TURKEY as part of the deal, something TURKEY has been very keen on in recent years, given its desire to strengthen its self-reliance in the defense realm. And finally, expected delivery time: TURKEY estimates that CHINA will supply the systems in a relatively short period.

Critics of the TURKISH decision are concerned about several issues. Buying the system from CHINA means that TURKEY will be limited in its interoperability with the defense systems of other NATO members, which is liable to affect TURKEY’S defensive capabilities; it also raises the concern about friendly fire due to the lack of synchronization with the alliance’s friend-or-foe identification systems. 

Second, the CHINESE system has reportedly not been tested under real conditions and is inferior to the RUSSIAN S-400 proposed to the TURKS. Third, NATO officials are worried not only that the systems, once in place, could serve for intelligence gathering by the CHINESE espionage, but that even at the stage of joint development the CHINESE would have access to information and data NATO members would rather not reveal. Furthermore, CPMIEC is subject to AMERICAN sanctions for violations of the IRAN, NORTH KOREA, and SYRIA Nonproliferation Act. In response to some of these reservations, TURKEY claims it is planning to develop an independent friend-or-foe identification system, and that there is no comprehensive requirement that NATO members purchase defensive systems compatible with those of other alliance members. In fact, the proponents of the deal point to GREECE, also a NATO member, which bought the S-300 from RUSSIA (note, however, that this was a compromise purchase after TURKEY vetoed the intention of the Republic of CYPRUS to buy the system, which instead was placed on GREEK soil).

TURKEY’S POLICY OF COUNTERWEIGHT 

At the broader political level, Ankara is criticized for its willingness to cooperate in a sensitive strategic field with one of the biggest competitors of TURKEY’S longstanding close ally, the UNITED STATES. In practice, the possibility of TURKEY working with CHINA in the military realm as a counterweight to or substitute for the UNITED STATES is not new. In the late 1990s TURKEY bought rockets and imported rocket technology from CHINA (known in TURKEY as the T-300 Kasirga and J-600T Yildirim) after talks with the UNITED STATES on purchasing an advanced rocket launcher system fell through. In 2010, TURKEY held joint aerial maneuvers with CHINA after Washington canceled its participation in an exercise with TURKEY in response to Ankara’s rejection of ISRAEL’S participation. The upgrading of the TURKISH army’s armored vehicles (FNSS ACV) was also a joint TURKISH-CHINESE project.

Background Information: TURKEYS PIVOT TO THE EAST

DOES TURKEY REALLY NEED THE EU?
In the near future the EUROPEAN UNION might need TURKEY more than TURKEY the EUROPEAN UNION http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/06/does-turkey-really-need-eu.html

CHINA’S LAND BRIDGE TO TURKEY CREATES NEW EURASIAN GEOPOLITICAL POTENTIALS
CHINESE - TURKISH geopolitical and economic ambitions coincide http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/05/china-and-turkey.html

TURKEY AND CHINA AT ODDS OVER 10 MILLION TURKISH UYGHUR MINORITY LIVING IN CHINA

At the same time these moves, including the newest deal, should not be viewed as proof that TURKEY and CHINA are establishing strategic relations, as they have fundamental political and strategic differences of opinion preventing any real partnership. Among these are CHINA’S efforts to subvert international steps against the Assad regime; TURKEY’S enormous trade deficit with CHINA (currently about $18 billion annually); and TURKEY’S critique vis-à-vis CHINA’S policy with regard to its UYGHUR minority (a population of some 10 million, according to CHINESE official statistics), which shares ethnic, cultural, and historical ties with the TURKISH people. See:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uyghur_people
 
Background Information: TURKEYS’ COSMOPOLITAN TRAIL 



COOLING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE USA ARE SUPERFICIAL

In the background are also the complex historical relations between the nations that for decades cast CHINA’S image in TURKEY in a negative light. In addition, recent developments, especially the escalating tension between TURKEY and SYRIA, have highlighted TURKEY’S dependence on NATO. Despite some cooling in the relationship with the UNITED STATES, partly due to TURKEY’S disappointment with AMERICA’S decision not to intervene militarily in SYRIA and a chill between Erdogan and President Obama, NATO nations hurried to deploy Patriot missile batteries near the TURKISH-SYRIAN border after it seemed that relations were deteriorating. It is also clear to TURKEY that until it makes progress in the long process of developing independent anti-missile defenses it will remain highly dependent on NATO members on this issue.

TURKEY’S DESIRE TO DEVELOP AN INDEPENDENT TECHNOLOGICALLY-ADVANCED DEFENSE INDUSTRY

Therefore the explanation for the deal must be found in the particular current circumstances and complementary interests of TURKEY and CHINA. First, there is TURKEY’S desire to develop an independent technologically-advanced defense industry, which is probably Ankara’s main reason for choosing CHINA as its defense system supplier. This goal is entirely comprehensible to Beijing, which has been driven by similar considerations since the founding of the modern CHINESE state. 

Both nations view the AMERICAN and EUROPEAN refusal to transfer to TURKEY manufacturing technology connected to anti-missile defense systems as a way to perpetuate the superiority of the developed nations over the developing nations and leave the latter’s dependence on the former firmly in place. Second, given TURKEY’S complicated relationship with the UNITED STATES and the WEST – for example, TURKEY’S anger over the US refusal to act in SYRIA, the hurdles the EUROPEAN UNION has set for TURKEY’S acceptance into the EU, and the suspicion that NATO members are exploiting TURKEY’S dependence on them in the realm of air defense – it is convenient for Ankara to show that it has an alternative of sorts to its alliance with the WEST. 

A “WIN WIN” SITUATION FOR BOTH COUNTRIES?

As for CHINA, even if it is aware of the limits to its relations with TURKEY, the current deal serves its interests well by creating an opportunity to gain a foothold in the MIDDLE EAST weapons market, widen the split between Turkey and the United States, and strengthen its ties with an important regional power.
This development has some implications for ISRAEL. Despite the difficulties TURKEY has raised in recent years regarding the relationship between NATO and ISRAEL, ISRAEL would like to see TURKEY continue being a loyal NATO member. Thus, the current development will likely arouse concern in Jerusalem. Additional evidence of the difficult state of TURKISH-ISRAELI relations is that TURKEY has currently chosen to pursue procurement independence via a partnership with problematic actors such as CHINA instead of cooperation with ISRAEL. 

Background Information: CHINA, ISRAEL and TURKEY

ISRAELI EXPORTS TO TURKEY RISE 42% TO EQUAL EXPORTS TO GERMANY


ISRAEL’S RED SEA AND MEDITERRANEAN GAS TRANSFER LINK ENHANCES CHINA'S EXPORT TO SOUTHERN EUROPE AND THE BALKANS  http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/05/china-and-israel-enter-dragon.html

Finally, the TURKISH choice of the CHINESE defense system shows that even if the system’s quality and performance are inferior to those of its competitors, it is still good enough so that a nation that sees itself as threatened would choose it. This implies improvements in the CHINESE defense industry and the possibility of it entering the MIDDLE EAST military arena as an important player.

GROWING TURKISH INFLUENCE IN THE BALKANS





ERDOGAN: THE WITTY TACTICIAN?

By Ralf Borchard, via Deutschlandradio 


The visit of TURKISH Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdgoan to KOSOVO bears significance, not only because 90 percent of KOSOVO ALBANIANS are Muslims, but also because of TURKEY’S extensive economic involvement in the BALKANS - in contrast to that of the EUROPEAN UNION.

Prizren is also here, the TURKISH Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan shouted in a speech in Istanbul. It is the 16th June and Erdogan rallies against the Istanbul Gezi Park protesters and assured himself the symbolic support of the entire Islamic world - including the people in Pristina, KOSOVO'S capital:

KOSOVO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TURKISH ECONOMY 

Erdogans visited to KOSOVO was of high symbolic value. 90 percent of the population there are Muslim KOSOVO ALBANIANS, and that TURKEY is eager to recall some old virtues of the Ottoman Empire, as a kind of regulatory power in the WESTERN BALKANS, has already been made clear on many occasions by Erdogan. In KOSOVO’S case, facts and figures highlight this, says economist Lumir Abdixhiku, director of the Economic Research Institute in Pristina Riinvest:

"Tenders for the expansion of Pristina airport have been awarded to a TURKISH company, road and highway construction projects have been awarded to TURKISH companies, despite the fact that these were not the lowest bidders, the energy sector and most likely very soon the telephone network in KOSOVO are dominated by TURKISH companies. Not to mention the food sector which is almost entirely dominated by TURKISH companies, thus giving an idea of how strong this country is under the influence of the TURKISH economy. "

TURKEY “CONQUERING” THE BALKANS? OR JUST CLEVER STRATEGIES?

Erdogan not only visited Pristina, he also went to the southern town of Prizren, where the bulk of the TURKISH community in KOSOVO is concentrated. In Prizren, TURKISH is one of four official languages, there is even a TURKISH radio and TV station and Levent Bush is the President of the TURKISH party in Prizren:


"We are currently holding the position of the Deputy Mayor and two TURKISH municipality councilors. We are part of the party of KOSOVO’S Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, and we have together about 25 TURKISH clubs – women groups as well as youth groups organizing various cultural events."
Also significant is that Erdogan did not visit KOSOVO alone, but together with the new ALBANIAN head of state, Edi Rama. In ALBANIA, the TURKISH influence is also particularly strong, which in other BALKAN countries, such as the Orthodox Christian dominated SERBIA is viewing with some skepticism. But even with SERBIA, TURKEY tries to tighten its band, as a supplement - many experts say, or as a counterweight for SERBIA to move closer to the EUROPEAN UNION.
 
THE WEST’S LACK OF CULTURAL AWARENESS 

According to economic expert Lumir Abdixhiku, TURKISH influence in KOSOVO has a clear downside:
"We honestly need something else; we need more WESTERN companies in KOSOVO. The reason why there are no longer WESTERN EUROPEAN investors here is because they cannot adapt to the local investment environment. The only ones who do that are TURKISH investors. TURKS are able to come to terms easily with the high level of corruption as well as tough and prolonged bureaucracy. Politically, TURKISH dominance in KOSOVO is dangerous for us. We need WESTERN values, which are essentially important for this country. "

STRINGING BALKAN POLICY BY THE EU IS MISSING 

TURKISH commitment also exposes the weaknesses of EU policy: While the EUROPEAN UNION promised  all  Western Balkan countries the perspective of gradually joining the EU, the financial crisis has made the EU wary of EU enlargement, thus a stringent BALKAN strategy is missing - a gap, which Prime Minister Erdogan is only too determined and eager to close. In order to achieve this he grabs every opportunity increase TURKEY’S economic, political and cultural influence in the BALKANS.

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