Saturday 30 March 2013

CYPRUS AND TURKEY






TURKEY TAKES ADVANTAGE OF CYPRUS DESPERATION

As the geopolitical game over Mediterranean hydrocarbons heats up, TURKEY has suspended energy deals with ITALY’S Eni over the company’s involvement in oil and gas exploration offshore CYPRUS.
The timing is important. It comes just days after CYPRUS secured a painful EU bailout package and  it considers extending April bidding for the next round of oil and gas exploration licenses. Bidding is set to end on 26 May, but may be prolonged, according to Bloomberg

EXPLORE IN CYPRUS, GET KICKED OUT OF TURKEY

The extension of the deadline would give CYPRUS more time to lure in additional investors, which it desperately needs. TURKEY is hoping to send these potential investors a message: Explore in CYPRUS, get kicked out of TURKEY.
CYPRUS is divided along GREEK-CYPRIOT and ethnic TURKISH lines, with the GREEK CYPRIOTS controlling two-thirds of the Mediterranean island nation. The GREEK-CYPRIOT Republic of CYPRUS became an EU member in 2004, but TURKEY only recognizes the breakaway north. TURKEY has warned CYPRUS against any unilateral move to explore for oil and gas offshore CYPRUS, maintaining that TURKISH CYPRIOTS should have equal rights to these resources. 

TURKEY IS CONCERNED OF THE POSSIBILITY THAT NOBLE ENERGY INC.’S ANNOUNCES BLOCK 12 AS COMMERCIAL VIABLE

Background Information: 

ENERGY HOTSPOT: EASTERN MED

Eni is a key partner in three major TURKISH pipeline projects. The suspension appears to be centered on the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline project, which will transport oil from RUSSIA and KAZAKHSTAN to TURKEY.
It is unclear what will happen to Eni’s involvement in two other pipelines, the RUSSIAN-led South Stream  and Blue Stream gas pipelines, which run through the Black Sea to deliver RUSSIAN gas to TURKEY. Eni has a 20% share in the South Stream project, while Gazprom holds a 50% share.   
In January , Eni and its partner—SOUTH KOREAN Kogas—signed an agreement to explore in the CYPRIOT part of the explosively rich Levant Basin. Total, Eni and Kogas plan to conduct seismic surveys later this year and drill their first wells in 2014.
What’s really irked Turkey is Noble Energy Inc.’s (NBL) plans to start drilling an appraisal well in June and the possibility that it could announce commercial viability in its Block 12 before the end of this year. Noble thinks it’s block holds a minimum of 7 trillion cubic feet of gas. This is the development to watch closely, because commercial viability will be the tipping point for Ankara.

STRATEGIC SHIFT: TURKEY & RUSSIA VERSUS CYPRUS & EU

In the meantime, RUSSIA missed its chance to win a nice share in CYPRUS’ offshore exploration in return for a bailout package. Cyprus wasn’t offering enough to make it worth RUSSIA’S while to anger TURKEY, which it needs for its massive pipeline projects. So far, RUSSIA’S Gazprom has steered clear of Cypriot waters.
What this comes down to is that a choice has to be made between CYPRUS and TURKEY. The EU will stick with CYPRUS for now, and RUSSIA will keep its pipeline plans secure in Turkey.
Via oilprice

Friday 29 March 2013

STAATSGEHEIMNIS BANKENRETTUNG


50 Milliarden Euro in Griechenland, 70 Milliarden Euro in Irland, 40 Milliarden Euro in Spanien - ein Eurostaat nach dem anderen sieht sich gezwungen, seine Banken mit gigantischen Summen zu stützen, um damit die Verluste auszugleichen, die den Geldhäusern aus faulen Krediten entstanden sind. Aber wohin gehen die Milliarden eigentlich? Wer sind die Begünstigten?

 Mit dieser einfachen Frage reist der preisgekrönte Wirtschaftsjournalist und Sachbuchautor Harald Schumann quer durch Europa und bekommt verblüffende Antworten.

Die Geretteten sitzen - anders als häufig vermittelt und von vielen angenommen wird - nicht in den ärmeren Eurostaaten, sondern hauptsächlich in Deutschland und Frankreich. Ein großer Teil des Geldes landet nämlich bei den Gläubigern der Banken, die gerettet werden wollen oder müssen. Und obwohl diese Anleger offenkundig schlecht investiert haben, werden sie - entgegen aller Logik der freien Marktwirtschaft - auf Kosten der Allgemeinheit vor jeglichen Verlusten geschützt. Warum ist das so? Wer bekommt das Geld? Eigentlich simple Fragen, die aber den Kern der europäischen Identität berühren.

Thursday 28 March 2013

AUSTERITY THREATENS EU COMPETITIVE POSITION





EUROPE WAS A LEADER IN TERMS OF QUALITY INFRASTRUCTURE

Austerity is threatening the EU’s competitive edge and the region could fall behind other areas of the world if spending is not kept up on key infrastructure projects including aviation.
Company executives, trade groups and even EUROPEAN UNION officials themselves say the region is in danger of falling behind competitors, with possibly irreversible consequences.

EUROPEAN infrastructure spending rose just 1.5 percent last year to USD$741 billion, compared to global growth of 4.5 percent and a 7.1 percent rise in ASIA-PACIFIC, according to data compiled by Marketline, a business information provider.
Spending in EUROPE will increase slightly over the next four years, to 4.3 percent growth by 2016, Marketline said, but will continue to significantly under-perform the world average. Only the UNITED STATES will do worse, with growth of just 1.8 percent seen in 2016.
Trade within EUROPE, which has a population of more than 730 million and represents roughly 22 percent of the world's cargo by value, is expected to double in the coming decade.
Brussels said in a policy paper released before the recent budget cuts that EUR€550 billion (USD$704 billion) in high-priority projects were needed by 2020 to create a core transport network to meet the increased demand.

CONCERNS THAT EUROPE RISKS LOSING ITS COMPETITIVE POSITION

The investment would connect 120 major ports and airports to rail, upgrade 15,000 km (9,300 miles) of rail tracks to high speed and remove 35 key cross-border bottlenecks. The region's railways use seven different gauges and only 20 major airports and 35 major ports are directly connected to the rail network.
The upgrades would not only make the distribution of goods faster and cheaper, but also be required to meet EU targets to reduce carbon emissions by 60 percent, halve conventional car use and shift 50 percent of long distance freight onto trains and ships by 2050.

Airline executives have been among the most outspoken about concerns that EUROPE risks losing its competitive position if it fails to implement these plans.
Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport plans to spend EUR€2.1 billion between 2011 and 2015 on new facilities, for example, while Dubai said last year it plans to invest EUR€6 billion in airport expansion by 2018 to boost capacity by 50 percent.

"EUROPE was a leader in terms of quality infrastructure," Air France-KLM chief executive Jean-Cyril Spinetta told reporters. "I am very concerned about the future, especially airports. The amount of investment in other regions is incredibly high."
Via Airwise.com

Monday 25 March 2013

CYPRUS AND GERMANY

DEUTSCHE Bank owns Vegas investments that equal its exposure in GREECE, SPAIN and PORTUGAL and probably CYPRUS



CYPRUS – IS THE EUROPEAN UNION OPENING PANDORA’S BOX?

By Harris A. Samaras 

Are we witnessing the slow death of the EUROPEAN UNION? Have the repeatedly failing EU policymakers finally opened Pandora’s Box with their recent proposal for CYPRUS?
Why are some EUROPEAN member states taking actions that are catastrophic for the EUROPEAN sentiment?
Aren’t all citizens of the EU equal under the EUROPEAN law?
It is a serious blunder and a gaffe when the EU is squeezing the government of one of its member states, CYPRUS – to confiscate the deposits that rightfully belong to EU ordinary citizens and others alike! Depositors that trusted the written and unwritten laws that the EUROPEAN UNION inspired or used to inspire…
Could such action ever affect the EUROPEAN Financial Crisis positively?

NORTHERN EUROPE VERSUS SOUTHERN EUROPE

CYPRUS never had a problem with earlier “blunders” caused by EU policy… The CYPRUS banking sector is indeed quite large but it was in solid state up until the one-sided decisions of some EUROPEAN governments caused many billions of losses to banks through the haircut imposed on GREEK sovereign debt and elsewhere within the EU…
All EU member states must in concert find a solution for the EU as a whole instead of shifting the damage to one member state or another… The crisis of the Euro area is systemic! Decisions taken by the strongest countries in the EU have spread misery sequentially to citizens in IRELAND, GREECE, PORTUGAL, SPAIN, ITALY and now CYPRUS. This is not going to end if they, the strongest countries, keep on handling the crisis in such manner. The EU has to enforce a decision making process where the EUROPEAN governments are asked to care for all their citizens. The inability of the EU to take care of its citizens wholly led to the failure of the EU… clearly seen these days by the way the EU has handled the CYPRUS financial issue…

IS A CYPRUS-LIKE INCURSION ON PEOPLE’S SAVINGS UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE EU?

This inconceivable way of blackmailing the government of CYPRUS to confiscate the deposits is sending a clear message: Nobody with deposits in smaller countries, such is LUXEMBOURG for instance, should feel safe with her or his deposits; nobody with deposits in a weaker financially country, such is SPAIN, should feel safe about her or his deposits either…
Whatever happens, the CYPRUS story teaches important lessons for every EUROPEAN and not only economy: Austerity has failed!
A most valid question which if we answer yes to transforms into an oxymoron: Are the people that led EUROPE into this mess the right ones to lead EUROPE out of it?

BOOST GROWTH WITH NO MONEY

Praying that there will be no bank runs across EUROPE…
It just does not make any sense…
You would expect that finance Ministers across EUROPE to have known better…
How could countries like, CYPRUS, GREECE, PORTUGAL, SPAIN, ITALY and SLOVENIA ever boost growth with no money? With lending rates continuously dropping how can any country even have growth?

WHAT IS GERMANY'S REAL ROLL IN ALL THIS? 

One thing is for sure: Decisions like this one about CYPRUS or about the haircut of the GREEK debt benefit in essence some countries… it can be very easily observed from the markets that such decisions reduce the financing cost of the GERMAN government… the GERMAN government can now borrow at negative rates… while it inflicts pain and misery on other countries… not everyone is equal under the EUROPEAN law!
Moreover, GERMANY is quick to scold the citizens of other countries for the actions of its own government officials and bankers; actions which GERMANY tolerated and even encouraged for years… enjoying a large market for its manufacturing products, while exerting enormous financial leverage over other EU member states… its economic missteps have gone unnoticed and so has its profit-taking from its EU partners…
Only an ignorant should not worry that the total failure of the EUROPEAN UNION is around the corner…
The EUROPEAN Central Bank has also been quite unclear on its position… and it was the vehicle to blackmailing the CYPRUS government… thus contributing to say the least to the mess that the EU is now into…
In order for the EU to “work”, the EU needs to form a banking union (as per the EUROPEAN Council’s decision of June 2012) which primarily means that all member states should have a common credible deposit insurance guarantee; a guarantee that shall apply to everybody in the Euro Area! Now the EU or better the strongest states, members of the EU, made a mockery of it, sending clearly the message that that they do not want to be part of such a decision, a decision that they so much preached about and advocated for less than a year ago…
Those in the EU that use blackmail as a mean to their own benefit should think again… Is it the right way towards a better EU to demand confiscation of somebody’s deposits? It is not! And notions of recalibrating the amounts to be seized or better stolen from depositors are not a solution either! The EU as a whole should take responsibility! And remember this is more about EUROPE than about CYPRUS!
See: DRAGHI, HEAD OF ECB, NEEDS THE MONEY OF CYPRIOT BANK- CUSTOMERS  http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/zypern-krise-ezb-schieflage.html
Think!

IS IT JUST ABOUT THE RUSSIAN MONEY DEPOSITED IN CYPRUS?
 
The EU did not feel that way two decades ago, even a few years ago…
Is it just a GERMAN-led propaganda which argues that the CYPRUS depositor is aimed at RUSSIAN oligarchs who evade taxes? But it targets ordinary CYPRIOTS nearly as much as it targets high depositors and somehow it doesn’t matter if it’s the life savings of a middle-class family…
Is it just about the deposits of non-residents? Only very recently the IMF and the EU stated in their reports about CYPRUS that supervision of international and local commercial banks in CYPRUS are more than competent, progressed over the years to the highest of standards…
Is it just about the recently confirmed and scientifically estimated huge hydrocarbon reserves of CYPRUS? A fact by the way that has so strangely been ignored or diminished by the EU and international media…

See: COULD IT BE THAT THE TROIKA (WITH GERMANY IN LEAD) IN REALITY FOCUSES ON TAKING CONTROL OF CYPRUS’S PROCLAIMED HYDROCARBON FINDINGS? 


Could it be that the EU in its effort to save a mere €5.8 billion (the CYPRUS “bail-out” money)… is upsetting EUROPEAN confidence and trust… facing possible bank runs… and in essence risking trillions?