Sunday 30 November 2014

NIGERIA: UNDERSTANDING THE BOKO HARAM CRISIS




A LENTICULAR PERSPECTIVE


NIGERIA has come under serious security challenge in the last couples of years. The security dilemma is epitomized by the JAMATU’ATU AHLIS SUNNA LIDDA’WATI WAL-JIHAD, (People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet’s Teaching and Jihad) or its faction, ANSARU- all generically known as the BOKO HARAM (Western civilization is forbidden). 

MILITANT ISLAMIC REVIVAL IN SOME PARTS OF AFRICA

Since July 2009 when the sect had open confrontation with the NIGERIAN State in the war of vengeance, first, over the killing of its members by the security forces attempting to implement a helmet legislation for motorbike riders in BORNU state, North-east of NIGERIA and later over the death in the hands of the police of its leader USTAZ YUSUF MOHAMED, there is little doubt left that the BOKO HARAM sect has successfully replaced sundry criminal activities such as armed robbery and kidnapping as a more formidable security challenge to both state and society in NIGERIA. 

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INTEREST IN STABILIZING CHAD

Especially with the current militant ISLAMIC revival in some parts of AFRICA, from the NORTH AFRICAN MAGHREB, EAST AFRICA and down to the SAHEL and WEST AFRICAN regions, and being spear-headed by Al Qaeda affiliates such as al Qaeda in the ISLAMIC MAGHREB (AQIM) and SOMALI-based Al- Shabaab, popular notion about the BOKO HARAm sect regard it within the general framework of global political ISLAM- the unprecedented irruption of ISLAMIC religion into the secular domain of politics 

The BOKO HARAM sect is thus viewed as a local cell of the global JIHADIST movement; more so, with its declared manifesto to abolish the democratic structures in existence in NIGERIA and impose the ISLAMIC SHARIA system, initially on NIGERIA, but which it later modified to the North of the country only. While the general notion of an ISLAMIST organization is not completely irrelevant in understanding the sect and its violence, however, this article attempts to examine the BOKO HARAM crisis in NIGERIA by situating it within the specific context in which the sect evolved as well as the extant political milieu in which it has metamorphosed into the monster it current constitutes. 

The article will therefore adopt a three-dimensional approach in the explanation of the sect and its violence, namely a brief but critical analysis of its religious origin, its evolution as a local political militia in the North and MAIDUGURI specifically, and appropriation to the national political stage in the post-2011 presidential election period.(2)

BOKO HARAM: THE ORIGIN

The literature on the BOKO HARAM insurgents is robust with narratives on whom the founder is and the date in which it arose in history, and therefore need not be regurgitated all over here (see Lengmang, 2011; Okereke, 2011; Adibe, 2012; Alozieuwa, 2012). 

Important however is that from the outset, the BOKO HARAM arose as a religious group in the North-east of NIGERIA. Indeed,the region has hosted extremist religious groups in the past, and has experienced sectarian religious violence that usually pits the MOSLEMS against the CHRISTIANS. Extremist religious sects which have emerged from the region include the MAITATSINE and DARUL ISLAM. 

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The 1980s for instance witnessed the MAITATSINE riots in several Northern cities, namely, KANO (1980), KADUNA(1982), BULUM-KETU (1982), JIMETA (1984), and GOMBE (1985). 
The list excludes religious riots that occasionally occur in parts of the region, such as the inter-ethnic violence in KANO in 1996 sparked off by the beheading of an IGBO CHRISTIAN, GIDEON AKALUKA by MOSLEM youths for allegedly profaning the Quran; the 2006 DANISH cartoon riots by MOSLEM in many parts of the North, especially in MAIDUGURI and KATSINA. The ethno-religious crisis JOS, PLATEAU state, Northcentral NIGERIA has raged since 2004.

UNEMPLOYED AND DISILLUSIONED YOUTHS, FAIR GAME FOR RECRUITERS

The reservoir from which previous extremist religious elements in Northern NIGERIA such as the MAITATSINE recruited their membership remains the same for the BOKO HARAM sect, namely, the teeming number of destitute and other street urchins including the almajirais, school drop-out and unemployed and disillusioned youths and tertiary institutions graduates (Lengmang, 2011; Okereke, 2011). The gravitation to extremist religious groups by these elements thus owe largely to failure of the government in basic social provisioning and is fostered generally by the feeling among many in the North that the modern secular system is incapable of stimulating meaningful development and prosperity in the region (Lengmang, 2011). 

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While the BOKO HARAM sect may therefore have existed prior to the outset of the current democratic dispensation, its philosophical and spiritual underpinnings however feed into the disillusionment that accompanied the manner in which the SHARIA reintroduced since 1999 across 12 northern states was implemented. That disillusionment provided the profound dissatisfaction, which the BOKO HARAM sect tapped into to promote the idea that an ISLAMIC state would eliminate the inconsistencies

BOKO HARAM AS A LOCAL POLITICAL MILITIA

NIGERIA has a prevalent political culture whereby politicians found armed thugs which they use for criminal political activities during elections in the struggle for political power. Most of the elements that constitute the militias are pooled from the army of unemployed youths and neverdo-wells of the society. As political militias, these hordes are however usually dumped in the post-election periods. Political militia however dates back to pre-independence era and is not a new phenomenon. (3)

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The nucleus of the membership of the BOKO HARAM sect emerged out of a political militia group known as ECOMOG, used specifically by a former governor of BORNU state, ALI MODU SHERIFF to dislodge his predecessor, MALA KACHALLA, whom he sponsored to office in 1999. Acting Minister of Defense, LABARAN MAKU, was thus right when he blamed politicians from the North- east for the “insecurity [which] is not religious but the after-effect of violent local politics,” (Newsdairy,online, December 31, 2013). 

With the disillusionment over the implementation of SHARIA in the north generally, BOKO HARAM’S dead leader, YUSUF apparently presumed that in releasing his members to help SHERIFF come to power, the latter would be stricter in enforcing the SHARIA, which KACHALLA introduced in BORNU in 2000. 

KACHALLA had exempted the CHRISTIANS from the SHARIA. SHERIFF indisposition to do just that led to the resignation of BUJI FOI, a BOKO HARAM top member and the commissioner for religious affairs in SHERIFF’S cabinet, who allegedly was one of YUSUF’S major financiers. He was killed alongside YUSUF.




BOKO HARAM EMERGES AT THE NATIONAL STAGE: THE POST-2011 ELECTION IN NIGERIA 

NIGERIA has an informal political arrangement whereby central power is rotated between the North and South. In the arrangement, power resides in each of the divides for 8 years. It started with President OLUSEGUN OBASANJO from the South-West region, (1999-2007). YAR’ADUA from the North-West succeeded OBASANJO in 2007 and could have been in office till 2015. He died in 2010- the third year into his first four-year tenure. YAR’ADUA’S deputy GOODLUCK JONATHAN, took over in accordance with the country’s constitution. A CHRISTIAN, JONATHAN is an IJAW, a minority ethnic nationality in the NIGER DELTA, South-South of NIGERIA.

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Towards the 2011 general elections, some political tendencies in the North felt President JONATHAN should merely complete YAR’ADUA’S tenure and give way for a Northerner to do the
region’s remaining four years. In a political environment where the power of incumbency entails using apparatuses of State to swing the electoral process to one’s favour, JONATHAN’S ethnic IJAW minority however saw an opportunity for the region to cut its teeth into the big political pie. The oil-rich NIGER Delta had also been scene of violent militant agitation that targeted NIGERIA’S oil infrastructure and impacted the country’s oil-dependent economy negatively. The people of the region suffered long years of despoliation of their environment and conspiratorial neglect by successive NIGERIAN governments and the multinational oil companies. 

THE OIL EQUATION

In the absence of total control of the oil resources in their domain, which constituted the major theme of the militant agitation, a shot at the presidency could do. The region had the sympathy of many NIGERIANS, especially from the South- if having the presidency could stem the wave of militancy in the region which had degenerated into kidnapping for ransom, among other sundry criminal activities and also led to increasing loss of oil revenues. Minority ethnic groups in the North were also sympathetic to the IJAW cause in a display of fellow minority feeling.

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The April 2011 presidential poll in NIGERIA was conducted against this backdrop and thus was preceded by bitter power struggles between some political forces in the North and South of NIGERIA. Threats of making NIGERIA ungovernable should JONATHAN defy the zoning arrangement of his political party, the PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC PARTY, PDP, and vie for the presidency had preceded the election and resonated from some prominent Northern figures. In December 2010, two bombs were detonated by  BOKO HARAM at the MAMMY Market, a mixed free zone at MOGADISHU Barracks, a walking distance to the seat of power, the Aso Rock Presidential Villa, in (4) order according to a NIGERIAN news magazine Tell, “to pass the message that if it could happen inside the lion’s den, it could happen anywhere else in NIGERIA and that nobody is safe,” (Tell, January 17, 2011). 

Ex-army private HABIB BAMA, a KANURI from BAMA in BORNU state was the mastermind, including that of the UNITED NATIONS’ House in August 2011,(http://sundayriskyakpan.blogspot.com/2012/06/jtf-confirms-boko-haram-leaders-arrest.html).

Just as was appropriated in BORNU for power struggle in the state, therefore, the BOKO HARAM is thus viewed by many as having been appropriated by some influential political forces that seeks to make good the pre- 2011 election threats. It is generally regarded as a political militia of the NORTHERN/HAUSA-FULANI hegemony, and in the specific context of the KANURI ethnic group sense of marginalization from central power, the political militia of that ethnic group in the North
(Alozieuwa, 2012). 

Nobel Laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka of Nigeria argues strongly that the hordes are available to highly placed, highly disgruntled and highly motivated individuals who, having lost out in the power stakes have sworn to bring the Nigerian society to its knees, create a situation of anarchy either by breaking up the country or bringing back the military- “not merely to Islamize the nation but to bring it under a specific kind of fundamentalist strain,” (Newsweek, January 16, 2012). 

According to General Jeremiah Useni, a Northerner and former deputy national chairman of SHERIFF’S ALL NIGERIA’S PEOPLE’S PARTY, ANPP, “The BOKO HARAM issue …started like a BORNO affair but now it is becoming a national problem,” (Vanguard, online, July 13, 2011).

NIGERIAN ‘WAR ON TERROR’

Early 2012, Professor JEAN HERSKOVITS, an AMERICAN professor of history and expert on NIGERIAN politics, had urged the US to resist of being drawn into a NIGERIAN ‘war on terror’ that would make the US appear biased toward a CHRISTIAN president. Getting involved in an escalating sectarian conflict that threatens NIGERIA’S unity, HERSKOVITS had argued, could turn NIGERIAN MUSLIMS against AMERICA without addressing any of the underlying problems fueling instability and sectarian strife in NIGERIA. Late last year, however, both AHL AS-SUNNAH LID-DA WA WAL-JIH D, and ANSARU made the UNITED STATES’ list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). 

DOES BOKO HARAM REALLY EXISTS?

The designations,no doubt, demonstrate the US strong support for NIGERIA’S fight against terrorism and its efforts to address security challenges in the north. By implication, the US did not heed Professor HERSKOVITS counsel. Nevertheless, HERSKOVITS has a theory on the BOKO HARAM sect which remains valid. According to him,[T]here is no proof that a well-organized, ideologically coherent terrorist group called BOKO HARAM even exists today. 

Evidence suggests instead that, while the original core of the group remains active, criminal gangs have adopted the name BOKO HARAM to claim responsibility for attacks when it suits them. BOKO HARAM has evolved into a franchise that includes criminal groups claiming its identity.

The core ISLAMIST elements that remains, are a fringe group that also antagonizes mainstream NORTHERN MUSLIMS. For a number of reasons, these elements cannot achieve their ambition of ISLAMIZING either the whole of NIGERIA or Northern NIGERIA based on certain factors. 


One, the likelihood of evolving a coalition which will embrace mainstream northern MUSLIM and its political elite corps is zero. This owes to the fact that while the sect may be focused on ISLAM’S days of glory or great piety, which to them assures the true (5) believer of spiritual salvation and an eternally joyful existence in the world beyond (Mozayyan, 2009:241), the average NIGERIAN MUSLIM political elite is however most likely uninterested in that version of ISLAM. 

NO OIL IN THE NORTH  

He may, in the words of MOZAYYAN, be more interested in a “future that guarantees independent thought, social liberty, modernity and economic remuneration in this world” (ibid. p. 243). And there is a reason for this: none of the oil which most NIGERIA’S
political elites rely on for primitive accumulation can be found in the North. 

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Second, NIGERIA’S geography does not also support a clear-cut distinction between a MUSLIM North and CHRISTIAN South. Again, discovery of items as used condoms, at the sect’s BAMA camp in BORNO in 2013 by NIGERIAN soldiers on the sect’s pursuit does not project the sect as serious devotees committed to returning ISLAM to its glorious days of great piety but as a bunch of disgruntled bandits operating under the banner of religion to camouflage its sense of deprivation. 

DESPERATION OF A SECT

Condoms and their like should ordinarily be a haram (sin) to a true religious sect. Acts of violence perpetrated by the
BOKO HARAM sect towards the end of 2013 in parts of the North-east like ambushing and slaughtering motorists and commuters on the highways, attacking a wedding party, as well as defenseless tertiary institution students, therefore, might suggest a chaos strategy to prove to the citizenry, its vulnerability amidst increasing military clamp-down on the sect. But it also betrays desperation by a sect that has realized the futility of its ISLAMIZATION agenda on complex heterogeneous country as NIGERIA. 

On the other hand, for the elements that have been appropriated as a political militia, the foray to the national stage has been grossly hampered especially with tight intelligence and security cordons around ABUJA, the country’s capital and its environs. Both the declaration of the sect and its faction, ANSARU as FTOs and NIGERIA’S anti-Terrorism legislation combine as great disincentives to any politician to want to jeopardize not only his personal freedom for support to the insurgents but also risk loss of his financial wherewithal. 

The trial of some LEBANESE businessmen in NIGERIA, the conviction of one of them with linkage to the HEZBOLLAH terrorist organization, as well as BOKO HARAM field operative KABIRU SOKOTO on terrorism charge in late 2013 serve a notice that the State takes the War on Terror (WoT) seriously, and would brook no nonsense from any person that may want to associate himself with acts of terrorism in NIGERIA.

Unrealistic therefore will be the idea of perpetrating the violence in order to stop JONATHAN from contesting the 2015 presidential election.

Confronted by this reality, the sect has been forced to retreat to its original enclave, the North-east, and few adjoining North-west states. As 2015 approaches, the chaos strategy will further help to rob the sect’s ISLAMIZATION agenda of its appeal. The remnant of the horde of the political militia elements across the North will gravitate towards the North-east and will focus their attention on the local politics in that region.

By Prof Alozieuwa Simeon Onyemachi Hilary
(Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Abuja, Nigeria)
via RIEAS


References:
Adibe, J. (2012). “Boko Haram: One sect, conflicting narratives.” African Renaissance, 9(1), 3-7.

Alozieuwa, S. H.O. 2012. “Contending Theories on Nigeria’s Security Challenges in the Era of Boko Haram Insurgency,” The Peace and Conflict Review, 7 (1). Available at
http://www.review.upeace.org/

6 “JTF Confirms Boko Haram leader’s arrest.” June 22, 2012. Available at
http://sundayriskyakpan.blogspot.com/2012/06/jtf-confirms-boko-haram-leaders-arrest.html(retrieved January 13, 2014)

Lengmang, Joseph. “The Upsurge of Religious Fundamentalism: A Critical Reflection in the Light of the ‘Boko Haram’ Phenomenon in Northern Nigeria,” in Best, G. Shedrack
(ed).
Religion and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding in Northern Nigeria, pp. 86-106. Ibadan: John Archers Publishers Ltd., 2011.

Mozayyan, M. “Glory in Defeat and Other Islamist Ideologies,” in Norwitz, H.J. (ed), Pirates, Terrorists, and Warlords: The History, Influence, and Future of Armed Groups Around the
World, pp. 240-256. New York: Skyhorse Publishing, 2009.

Okereke, N.C. “Implementing the Nigerian Defence Policy: Reflections on the Boko Haram Crisis,” in Mbachu, O and Sokoto, A. A. (eds), Nigerian Defence and Security: Policies and
Strategies, pp. 443-462. Kaduna: Medusa Academic Publishers Ltd., 2011.

Omonobi, K., Idonor D., Marama N., Onwuemenyie, O., and Okopi F. “Ex-Borno Governor created Boko Haram – Gen Useni.” Vanguard, Lagos, July 13 2011. Available at
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/07/ex-borno-governor-created-boko-haram/ (retrieved January 12, 2014)

Tell, Lagos, January 17, 2011
“US declares Boko Haram as terror group,” Vanguard, online, November 13, 2013. Available at
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/11/us-declares-boko-haram-terror-group/ (retrieved January
13, 2014).

Friday 28 November 2014

CRUDE OIL AND THE SYRIAN CONFLICT





SYRIA: A STRATEGIC LOCATION FOR ENERGY TRANSIT ROUTES

Noticed something whirring overhead? Must be the smell of drama. It seems that the ARAB countries are willing to fund the entire operation of any U.S. military adventure in SYRIA. Says, Secretary of State JOHN KERRY, "That's how dedicated they (ARAB GULF states) are at this. That's not in the cards, and nobody's talking about it, but they're talking in serious ways about getting this done".

OIL GAS PIPELINE WAR

But why would the ARAB GULF states want to pay for the marauding invasion of SYRIA?

OIL AND GAS, OF COURSE

Arguably, SYRIA isn't a major producer of oil and gas. Depletion of oil reserves is a vital problem facing the energy sector of the country. The oil production has decreased over the years. Syria had 2,500,000,000 barrels (400,000,000 m3) of petroleum reserves as of January 2010. So, the whole hullaballoo about SYRIA is definitely not about oil in the SYRIAN territory. What then?

INTERVENE IN SYRIA, SOLELY FOR ENERGY-RELATED GEOPOLITICAL REASONS

Because of its strategic location vis-à-vis energy transit routes. As it turns out, many key energy transit routes to EUROPE run through SYRIA.

QATAR'S GAS EQUATION 

The story begins with QATAR. Well, QATAR has spent billions of dollars supporting the rebel factions in SYRIA. 




Not without reasons, though. True, instability props up the oil price, but more importantly QATAR has the world's largest gas field (The SOUTH PARS/ NORTH DOME field, shared with IRAN) and is the largest exporter of Liquid Natural gas in the world. 

ISLAMIC PIPELINE

As a result of these facts, QATAR wanted to build an underground natural gas pipeline from the country's North Field to TURKEY, traversing SAUDI ARABIA, JORDAN and SYRIA to MEDITERRANEAN and then to EUROPE. TURKEY too was in favor of this 'Islamic Pipeline', as it would have made the country a key player in the transit, not to mention profits. 

REGIME CHANGE IN SYRIA WOULD DIMINISH RUSSIA’S IMPORTANCE AS GAS EXPORTER AS WELL AS NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA 

However, the ASSAD regime wasn't interested as the proposed pipeline would have negated RUSSIA off the equation. Instead, in the year 2010, along with IRAN and IRAQ, SYRIA proposed to build a 3,450 mile pipeline costing $10 billion to transport oil to EUROPE directly from the SOUTH PARS gas field traversing SYRIA. 

This IRAN-IRAQ-SYRIA pipeline, set to open in 2016 has an estimated capacity to pump 3.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, which would benefit IRAN, as you may have guessed. 



IRAN, IRAQ, SYRIA AGREE TO ESTABLISH ISLAMIC GAS PIPELINE - MON 25 JULY 2011 

So, IRAN'S gain left QATAR and TURKEY licking their fingers. Bear in mind that we are talking in terms of billions of dollars in revenue. And, do not forget that TURKEY and QATAR are allies of the US. Yes, more than a square, it's a circle with all points leading back to the US.

NABUCCO GAS PIPELINE 

Also, there's the Nabucco natural gas pipeline expected to connect AUSTRIA to EASTERN TURKEy with gas received from feeder pipelines of AZERBAIJAN, TURKMENISTAN, KAZAKHSTAN. UZBEKISTAN, IRAN, IRAQ and EGYPT. Yet, the project has been dragging for more than a decade now. 

IS THE TRANS ARABIAN PIPELINE “TAPLINE” THE ANSWER TO THE WHY?

TOPPLING ASSAD, A WIN WIN SITUATION FOR TURKEY AND QATAR

So, if the ASSAD government falls, TURKEY could re-route the Nabucco pipeline to traverse through SYRIA. Well, why wouldn't QATAR and TURKEY want ASSAD out the door?

THE SAUDI - RUSSIAN EQUATION 

What about SAUDI ARABIA? After all, it too has been a vocal supporter of the rebels ? Hegemony of SAUDI ARABIA over oil again. Into this scene comes in RUSSIA, alongside. SAUDI ARABIA has been pressing RUSSIA to discard the SYRIAN President in favor of a lucrative arms deal worth more than $15 billion and further investments in the country to boot. Also, SAUDI ARABIA is said to have assured RUSSIA that it would not sign any agreement that would jeopardize RUSSIAN gas exports.

Not a bad deal? But, to add in some perspective, RUSSIA and SYRIA enjoy a rosy friendship. In 2005, RUSSIA played a crucial role in springing up the SYRIAn economy writing-off about seventy percent of SYRIA'S debt. RUSSIA also has substantial investment in different sectors of the SYRIAN economy. There's also TARTUS, a SYRIAN port in the MEDITERRANEAN which helps RUSSIA as an official base for its ships and also as a point of delivery for weapons to the SYRIAN Government. 

RUSSIA IS THE BIGGEST EXTRACTOR OF NATURAL GAS

In spite of claims and counter claims that RUSSIA had evacuated all of its military personnel (sixteen- ship Naval task force) from the naval base, the reality remains that RUSSIA Naval base is still functioning as ever. Of course, the official version of 'civil personnel only' as maintained by the RUSSIAN is debatable. Yet, the US entry in SYRIA would mean RUSSIA losing its only military installation in the MIDDLE-EAST, (not to mention the only RUSSIAN naval base outside the former SOVIET UNION- history has changed, indeed)

In addition, RUSSIA is the biggest extractor of natural gas in the world. As a result, it is also a major gas exporter. The ASSAD regime assists RUSSIA by blocking Natural gas from flowing into EUROPE through the PERSIAN gulf, helping RUSSIAN company GAZPROM enjoy salacious profits. 

ALMOST A QUARTER OF THE NATURAL GAS CONSUMED IN EUROPE COMES FROM RUSSIA


Unsurprisingly, almost a quarter of the natural gas consumed in EUROPE comes from RUSSIA. Which is why, enjoying a vast market in EUROPE, RUSSIA has the comfort to use this to blackmail EUROPE as in 2009 when it shut off supplies for days. From then on, EUROPE has been trying to find other markets for natural gas. (Still, it's estimated that RUSSIA would continue to be EU's biggest natural gas supplier even after a decade). One hope has been the IRAN-IRAQ-SYRIA pipeline, which would have helped IRAN. Of course, US wouldn't want IRAN to benefit in anyway, would it? Also US involvement in SYRIA would also mean direct loss for RUSSIA. And would any government want events contrary to this?

RUSSIA'S REVENGE FOR LIBYA

UNLIKE IN LIBYA, RUSSIA AND CHINA THIS TIME AROUND WILL NOT TOLERATE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE SYRIAN EQUATION AND ENERGY GAME

PAYBACK TIME FOR BEING LEFT OUT OF THE LIBYAN EQUATION 

As mentioned numerous times , RUSSIA and CHINA felt that they were left out of the equation regarding the LIBYAN operation instigated by the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN. CHINA and RUSSIA invested heavily in LIBYA prior to the toppling of the LIBYAN regime, only to find out that they were kept completely out of the picture regarding the true intentions the Western coalition force had in mind with LIBYA once the regime was removed, namely tap the oil reserves of LIBYA 

Subsequently RUSSIA and CHINA learned their lesson and thus would not make the same mistake regarding SYRIA, permitting LIBYAN style intervention by WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition forces. No matter that SYRIA lacks oil reserves or other natural resources worth fighting over, their veto was more of a symbolic gesture telling WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition forces: that’s how far you can go this time around, but no further. 

Note from the Editor: Above paragraph was written by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring in June 2012 and included into this analysis 

ENERGY AND CRUDE OIL INTERESTS, ALBEIT SHY FROM THE PUBLIC EYE, PREVAIL AND THEY'RE DICTATING THE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT 

Elsewhere, IRAN'S support has been crucial for the ASSAD regime. Historically, the two countries have shared a symbiotic relationship for long against: SADDAM HUSSEIN, the US and ISRAEL. If SYRIA falls, IRAN would lose one of its strongest allies, a SHIITE MUSLIM nation at that. Recently, FRANCE has softened its stance on IRAN to even a possible inclusion in SYRIAN peace talks. So has the US.

Replacing al-ASSAD'S secular government with an Islamic state rules by groups affiliated to AL-QAEDA would lead to serious repercussions the world over, but the WESTERN powers are so blindfolded that they are willing to write off peace.

Again, here energy and crude oil interests, albeit shy from the public eye, prevail and they're dictating the rules of engagement. 

The bottom line is that western powers are interested to intervene in SYRIA solely for energy-related geopolitical reasons that have nothing to do with chemical weapons or democracy.

By STEVE AUSTIN via OIL-PRICE 

Thursday 27 November 2014

QATAR RUNS COVERT DESERT TRAINING CAMP FOR ‘MODERATE’ SYRIAN REBELS



A PLAN TO FAIL  - HOW DOES ONE TRAIN "MODERATE" REBELS? 


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 At a desert base, GULF state QATAR is covertly training moderate SYRIAN rebels with U.S. help to fight both President BASHAR ASSAD and ISIS and may include more overtly Islamist insurgent groups, sources close to the matter say.
The camp, south of the capital between SAUDI ARABIA’S border and AL UDEID, the largest U.S. air base in the MIDDLE EAST, is being used to train the Free SYRIAN Army (FSA) and other moderate rebels, the sources said.

TRUE OR MAINSTREAM MEDIA  PROPAGANDA?

Reuters could not independently identify the participants in the program or witness activity inside the base, which lies in a military zone guarded by QATARI special forces and marked on signposts as a restricted area.
But SYRIAN rebel sources said training in QATAR has included rebels affiliated to the “Free SYRIAN Army” from northern SYRIA.
The sources said the effort had been running for nearly a year, although it was too small to have a significant impact on the battlefield, and some rebels complained of not being taught advanced techniques.

DOHA HAS MADE NO SECRET OF ITS HATRED OF ASSAD

The training is in line with QATAR’S self-image as a champion of ARAB Spring uprisings and DOHA has made no secret of its hatred of ASSAD.
Small groups of 12 to 20 fighters are identified in SYRIA and screened by the Central Intelligence Agency, the sources said. Once cleared of links with “terrorist” factions, they travel to TURKEY and are then flown to DOHA and driven to the base.

Qatar supports the Syrian conflict to build a pipeline through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria.

“The U.S. wanted to help the rebels oust ASSAD but didn’t want to be open about their support, so to have rebels trained in QATAR is a good idea, the problem is the scale is too small,” said a WESTERN source in DOHA.
The CIA declined to comment, as did QATAR’S foreign ministry and an FSA spokesman in TURKEY. It is not clear whether the QATARI program is coordinated with a strategy of WESTERN and GULF countries to turn disparate non-Islamist rebel groups into a force to combat the militants. Such efforts have been hampered by WESTERN hesitancy about providing significant military aid, because it could end up with extremists. GULF states dislike the WEST’S emphasis on fighting ISIS. ASSAD is the bigger problem, they say.

“Moderate rebels from the FSA and other groups have been flown in to get trained in things like ambush techniques,” said a source close to the QATARI government who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the topic.

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http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/04/qatars-great-power-games.html

“The training would last a few months, maybe two or three, and then a new group would be flown in, but no lethal weapons were supplied to them,” one of the sources said.

SCREENING PROCESS

As the war against ASSAD has dragged on, frustrated rebels asked their trainers for more advanced techniques, such as building improvised explosive devices (IEDs), requests which were always denied.
“They complain a lot and say that going back they need more weapons or more training in IEDs but that’s not something that’s given to them,” said a Qatar-based defence source.
The QATAR project was conceived before the declaration of the hardline ISIS, when militants belonging to its predecessor organisation were not regarded as an international security threat.

THE "WHO FIGHTS WHO" AMONG THE ISLAMIC FRACTIONS ?


The group's rise in SYRIA and IRAQ has hampered the rebellion: Moderate groups cannot fight ASSAD when the better-armed ISIS seeks their destruction as it strives to build its "caliphate"
In recent weeks, the QATARIS, disappointed by lack of progress in the fight against ASSAD, have started to consider training members of the ISLAMIC FRONT, a coalition of Islamist rebels less militant than ISIS or the Al Qaeda-linked NUSRA FRONT, but stronger than the FSA. None have been trained as yet, but QATAR has sought to identify candidates, the sources say.
Some analysts say screening ISLAMIC FRONT fighters would be harder than FSA rebels, since some ISLAMISTS have switched between various groups.

ISLAMIST NETWORK

Training fighters from ISLAMIC groups could displease fellow GULF state the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, which dislikes QATAR'S support for the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD'S international Islamist network. But SAUDI ARABIA, which shares the UAE's mistrust of the BROTHERHOOD, is more indulgent of moderate Islamist forces when it comes to fighting ASSAD, diplomats say.

Related Articles on QATAR: 
STRIVING FOR BECOMING THE REGIONAL POWER PLAYER 
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/saudi-arabia-and-qatar.html

Asked about the QATARI training, a SAUDI defence source said: "We are not aware of this training camp, but there's one thing we agree on: ASSAD needs to go and we would not oppose any action taken towards that goal."

To QATAR, ousting ASSAD remains a priority and youthful EMIR SHEIKH TAMIM has said that military efforts to tackle ISIS will not work while the SYRIAN president remains in power.
A source who works with rebel groups said QATAR had delivered weapons, mostly mortar bombs, to the ISLAMIC FRONT and some FSA brigades about two months ago and had paid some salaries for ISLAMIC FRONT groups.

Source: Daily Star

Tuesday 25 November 2014

TRANSNISTRIA





JOURNEY TO TRANSNISTRIA, A COUNTRY THAT DOESN'T OFFICIALLY EXIST


Those living in the self-declared Federal State of NOVOROSSIYA in eastern UKRAINE might find it rewarding to visit TRANSNISTRIA.

Both are RUSSIAN-speaking enclaves that aligned themselves with MOSCOW when their central governments began looking west. In both cases, the RUSSIAN military played a part when the secessionist movement turned violent. And both countries do not officially exist. 

The main distinction is that TRANSNISTRIA, a sliver of territory in eastern MOLDOVA bordering UKRAINE, went through this process 22 years ago, which is why many analysts are looking to it to predict the future of NOVAROSSIYA.

Any newly-minted NOVOROSSIYAN who opts to visit TRANSNISTRIA, will soon discover that its status as a frozen conflict means it exists in a strange schism between the de jure and the de facto.
The schism is on immediate display at the ceasefire line in the rolling farmland on the road between the MOLDOVAN capital, CHISINAU and TIRASPOL, its TRANSNISTRIAN equivalent.

As befits MOLDOVA’S assertion that TRANSNISTRIA does not exist, it has no border control. The checkpoint is staffed by armed TRANSNISTRIAN officials. The language abruptly changes from MOLDOVAN to RUSSIAN.

TRANSNISTRIA REMAINS UNRECOGNIZED BY THE UNO 

All this reflects the way TRANSNISTRIA has many of the hallmarks of a state: its own elected government, military, police force, currency and passport.
But therein lies a lesson for the NOVOROSSIYANS: because TRANSNISTRIA remains unrecognised by any other UN member state, the only countries that recognise the TRANSNISTRIAN passport are fellow members of the Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations.

The grand title of this alliance belies the reality that the only other members are similarly unrecognised frozen conflicts in the former SOVIET statelets of SOUTH OSSETIA and ABKHARZIA in GEORGIA and NAGORNO-KARABAKH in AZERBAIJAN.

This crossing into TRANSNISTRIA serves not just as the old ceasefire line or the place where MOLDOVAN (a dialect of ROMANIAN) is superseded and CYRILLIC replaces the LATIN script found throughout the rest of MOLDOVA. It also serves as a litmus test for the new government led by YEVGENY SHEVCHUK. He won 75 per cent of the vote after campaigning on an anti-corruption platform, trouncing the Kremlin-approved candidates who have ruled since the 1992 ceasefire.

Officials at the checkpoint are notorious for inventing infractions by foreign visitors, the fines for which usually bear a striking correlation to the amount of cash they are carrying.

COMPARISON BETWEEN NOVOROSSIYA AND TRANSNISTRIA

Driving into disputed territory, nothing seemed to change and the farms seemed just as prosperous as the ones before the checkpoint. The big change comes when crossing the broad DNIESTRER River and entered TIRASPOL.

Chisinau, looks like most other capitals of former SOVIET states: shiny new towers amid rotting SOVIET-era infrastructure seemingly untroubled by maintenance since 1991.
In TIRASPOL, public buildings like the train station, museum and parliament were freshly painted and well maintained,  and patriotic posters bearing the TRANSNISTRIAN emblem were bright and clean.
Despite being capitalist, the parliament is called the Supreme SOVIET, the flag, emblem and currency all bear the hammer and sickle, and statues of LENIN are resplendent in public places as if glasnost, perestroika and raspad (collapse) never happened.

With an average GDP of Dh5,500, it is extraordinarily cheap for visitors. 
Comparing NOVOROSSIYA and TRANSNISTRIA. TIRASPOL’S repeated entreaties for incorporation into the RUSSIAN federation – the most recent being immediately after the events in CRIMEA this year – have gone unheeded in MOSCOW. Instead, the KREMLIN seems happy for TRANSNISTRIA to be a sphere of influence rather than a landlocked enclave it is compelled to support.

By John Henzell

Sunday 23 November 2014

THE DURAND LINE



RELATIONS BETWEEN AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN AND INDIA: PAST AND PRESENT

Another disastrous footprint of BRITISH Colonialism . From WEST to EAST, NORTH to SOUTH - wherever the BRITISH  ruled, the disastrous colonial politics are still present in the 21st century.  

Related Topic: 

AF-PAK A FRONTIER AGAINST IS GOALS

AMID AFGHANISTAN DRAW DOWN: MUSHARRAF WARNS OF PROXY WAR WITH INDIA http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2014/11/afghanistan-and-india.html




The BRITISH Colonial government safely retreated after the partition of INDIAN subcontinent in August 1947 leaving behind the legacy of disputes in the region, like the problem of KASHMIR and DURAND Line, which are still lingering on, creating hurdles between INDIA, PAKISTAN and AFGHANISTAN. All the three countries have a history of hostility due to these unresolved problems jeopardizing the regional security and economic integration. The issue of KASHMIR led to fullfledged wars between INDIAN and PAKISTAN. 

THE DURAND LINE 

The AFGHAN government also has more often than not blamed PAKISTAN of infiltrating rough forces in AFGHANISTAN to have a clout against INDIA and to keep the issue of DURAND Line at bay. Since the AFGHAN War, PAKISTAN has tried its best to have a PAKHTUN government in AFGHANISTAN. However, even the TALIBAN, considered to be PAKISTAN’S 2 boys, refused to recognize DURAND Line as an international boundary. If history is any thing to go by these proxies instead of serving the interests of their masters have proved to be frankenstein monster, creating problems for all the three states and the regions in the forms of militancy and terrorism.

PAKISTAN’S Chief of Army staff (COAS) General RAHEEL SHAREEF’S recent visit to AFGHANISTAN amid the report published by US Pentagon is a welcome gesture. Certainly if it carries any
sincerity, it might assuage the decade long acrimony between the two countries arising out as a fall out of the war on terror. The US report has alleged PAKISTAN of playing a negative role by
supporting proxies in AFGHANISTAN and INDIA. 

Another aftermath of British Colonialism 
In its report running into more than 100 pages, the Pentagon further added that “…Such groups continue to act as the primary irritant in AFGHANPAKISTAN bilateral relations”. The report added fuel to the fire as PAKISTAN ties with both AFGHANISTAN and INDIAN historically, as well as in recent times have been very fragile.

AFGHANISTAN and PAKISTAN both allege each other of harboring militants on their respective soil. In the same way PAKISTAN’S relations with its eastern neighbor, INDIA is also tense due cross border firing along the Line of Control and Working Boundary.

DESPITE COMMONALITY OF INTERESTS, RELATIONS BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN, HAVE OFTEN BEEN SOUR. 

The two counties have had bad relations on the onset of PAKISTAN’S emergence in 1947. The cause belli which hurt the relations was the utopian concept of PAKHTUNISTAN espoused by ABDUL GHAFFAR KHAN also known as BACHA KHAN, the leader and founder of the KHUDAI KHIDMATGARS Movement. AFGHANISTAN not only supported PAKHTUNISTAN but also declared the DURAND LINE, drawn in 1893, null and void claiming the very PAKHTUNISTAN areas as its own, a glaring self-contradictory position. The very issue of PAKHTUNISTAN resulted, albeit among other factors, in AFGHANISTAN’S tilt toward the then SOVIET RUSSIA and PAKISTAN leaning towards USA. The issue of PAKHTUNISTAN to a great extent resulted in the arrival of SOVIET forces in AFGHANISTAN in December 1979. The subsequent events and fall out of that interference is now part of AFGHAN and world history.

THAT MISTAKEN NOTION CALLED PAKHTUNISTAN

However, still the saga continues. The emergence of TALIBAN in 1994, AL-QAEDA and TAHREEK-ITALIBAN PAKISTAN (TTP), in 2007, is the outcome of that mistaken notion called PAKHTUNISTAN. The war on terror by default is the extension of this acrimonious relationship between the two states.

Both the countries have suffered a lot due to their misguided policies in the past. PAKISTAN drafted the faulty theory of strategic depth to counter AFGHANISTAN and INDIAN influence in the region. Hardly there is any day goes by without any suicide bombing or any other untoward incident in both PAKISTAN and AFGHANISTAN and potential threat to INDIA’S security. To have a win-win situation all the three countries should shun the KAUTALIAN policy that enemy of one is the friend of other rather to embrace the concept that the enemy of one is the enemy of the other. Therefore, they need to design a joint mechanism to defeat the common enemy.

AFGHANISTAN must assure PAKISTAN that its soil will not be used by states or organizations inimical to PAKISTAN’S interests. On the other hand PAKISTAN needs to devise a strategy that assuages AFGHANISTAN’S fears and concerns viz-a-viz PAKISTAN. ZULFIQAR ALI BHUTTO has once remarked that no two countries in the world share so much in common as PAKISTAN and AFGHANISTAN do.

The way forward will be a comprehensive approach and serious regional commitment which can only be achieved if the three countries put their rivalries behind and work out collectively. The best strategy for both the countries is to declare PAKISTAN and AFGHANISTAN as sister countries. The volume of trade must increase. In the field of education PAKISTAN needs to accommodate more AFGHAN students in PAKISTANI colleges and universities. 

In the post draw down of the international forces PAKISTAN, INDIA and AFGHANISTAN must strive for shining and bright future of their posterity. The decade long war on terror must be taken to a logical conclusion by all stakeholders. All three countries have to cooperate to tackle the problem of militancy and terrorism through a cohesive strategy for the future of peaceful SOUTH ASIA, CENTRAL ASIA and the whole region. Economic cooperation should increase among these three countries and other countries in the region especially CHINA. 

This region has a special importance and the potential to serve as a trade necules for the SOUTH ASIAN countries and also for the energy rich CENTRAL ASIA.

By Hanif-ur-Rehman  via Research Institute for European and American Studies