Saturday, 6 September 2014


VIEWPOINT ON: Argentine Economy 


Interesting Comment by Andres:

1) Mr Kicillof (Economic Minister) never said that Argentina will "imminently be in default". In fact he stressed endless times that Argentina deposited its payments on time so the default criteria are not met. 

It's an important nuance because a journalist cannot start an article posting inaccurate info.

2) Statistic info on inflation has always a political side, and unfortunately governments tend to undervalue them (high inflation is considered to be a failure in economic policies) while those in the opposition and in particular lobbying groups (unions, export-oriented corporations etc.) try to overvalue it to either force devaluation of the Peso or to raise minimum wage.

Manipulated inflation figures in order to minimize interest payments on restructured bonds, since these are tied to official inflation values

Kirchner's government manipulated  the inflation figures a bit too much,  in order to minimize interest payments on restructured bonds, since these are tied to official inflation values. At the same time, private forecasts were clearly politically oriented, providing exaggerated numbers without any significant population data to backup it.

Private estimations are not necessarily accurate

All this to say is that private estimations are not necessarily accurate. The truth lies perhaps in between the government and private figures.For instance, current official inflation figures are around 25%/yr now, but the private consultants now inform 50%/yr. 

3) An important trend to mention when analyzing Argentine exports during the last 12 years is that manufactured goods became an increasingly higher percentage of total exports, to the point that sometimes industrial-derived exports advance agricultural-derived exports for some quarters. Still Argentina is far from being an industrial export powerhouse (such as Taiwan or Korea) but this trend doesn't please foreign investors since many still believe that resource-rich countries such as Argentina should focus on exporting crops and importing manufactured goods. The Kirchner administration opposes this view.


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