ISLAMIC STATE AND KHURASAN

AF-PAK A FRONTIER AGAINST IS GOALS

Early in October, six leaders of the TEHREEK-E-TALIBAN PAKISTAN (TTP), a terrorist group based in northwestern PAKISTAN, announced their allegiance to the ISLAMIC STATE (IS) and to the self-declared CALIPH, ABU BAKR AL-BAGHDADI. While this was yet another indication of the steady percolation of IS into terrorist groups based in PAKISTAN, the implications will not be limited to national security alone.

The porous borders, historical narratives, and ideological leanings of the group will ensure that the effects will cut across social,economic, and humanitarian lines, unless there is an understanding of the IS's perspectives towards the region. PAKISTAN is more vulnerable to that risk than other countries.

THE KEYWORD IS KHURASAN

The IS believes that all territories historically ruled by Muslims and later conquered by non-Muslims and/or allegedly non-Islamic forms of governance were wrongfully taken from them; and intend to reclaim it. When the IS unilaterally declared a "CALIPHATE" in SYRIA and IRAQ, it also released a map highlighting the territories it aims to control in future. The present-day territories of AFGHANISTAN and PAKISTAN form the heart of the historical Greater KHURASAN region highlighted in the map, which includes parts of modern-day IRAN, TURKMENISTAN, UZBEKISTAN, KAZAKHSTAN, TAJIKISTAN and parts of western CHINA. 

THE IS VIEWS THE REGION ONLY AS KHURASAN AND WILL TRY TO REPLICATE PRECISELY WHAT IT HAS DONE IN IRAQ AND SYRIA

Given the IS's specific ideological leaning and approach, today's nation-states are irrelevant for the group. The IS views the region only as KHURASAN and will try to replicate precisely what it has done in IRAQ and SYRIA: to undo modern political borders that separate countries in the region. 

Already, IS propaganda material and declarations of allegiances have begun to crop up in various parts of PAKISTAN, with the latest being wall-chalking supporting the group, not too far from PAKISTANI Prime Minister NAWAZ SHARIF'S LAHORE residence. 

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However, the IS is not the only group that has its eyes set on the coveted KHURASAN. The new TTP chief, MULLAH FAZLULLAH, who fancies himself as the father of the KHURASAN movement in PAKISTAN, and the relatively unknown group, JAISH-E-KHURASAN, among others in PAKISTAN and AFGHANISTAN, are also reclaiming KHURASAN in their agendas. 

Although the PAKISTANI military launched Operation ZARB-E-AZB to flush out militants from the country's Federally Administered Tribal Areas earlier this year, the result has been to bring closer together the militants with like-minded counterparts in the bordering AFGHAN provinces of KUNAR, KHOST and NURISTAN. 

These provinces and the region along the DURAND Line will become the epicenter of the turf war between these groups and the IS in the attempt to reclaim and control the historical KHURASAN. While it is unlikely that the scale of breakdown of law and order will be on the lines of what is unraveling in IRAQ and SYRIA, other implications will threaten to rip the very fabric of society in AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN and the neighboring CENTRAL ASIAN countries.

SALAFI CATALYST IN INSECURITY

PAKISTAN, though formed as a homeland state for MUSLIMS, has, over the years, witnessed nationwide SUNNI-IZATION. Minority communities are often targeted by violent hardliner SALAFI ISLAMISTS ( Wahhabi ) for their beliefs. In the past several months, non-SUNNI MUSLIMS, especially SHI'ITES and AHMADIYYAS, have been targeted with terror attacks and mass killings. 

Intolerance towards ethno-sectarian minorities can be understood via the attacks on the SHI'ITE HAZARA community in BALOCHISTAN. The PAKISTANI government's indifferent attitude towards ethno-sectarian violence is not just disconcerting in general, but also, on a practical level, detrimental to the country's security as a whole. 

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While sectarian violence in AFGHANISTAN isn't as pronounced as it is in PAKISTAN - especially given how AFGHANISTAN suffers more from ethnic rivalries than sectarianism - any grip of the IS on the country could trigger sectarian violence by terrorist groups competing for legitimacy among their peers and potential sympathizers. PAKISTAN-based groups, in conjunction with counterparts in AFGHANISTAN will try to one up the IS, resulting in human tragedies.

SALAFI ISLAMIZATION 

The ongoing withdrawal of WESTERN forces has brought AFGHANISTAN to a delicate point in time, despite the high competency of the AFGHAN National Security Forces, and this could be exploited by the groups competing to control the region. 

CENTRAL ASIA, which has witnessed increasing SALAFI ISLAMIZATION among its younger generations over the past few years, has also exhibited a growing tendency of intolerance towards SHI'ITES - something that wasn't the case until recently. The attraction towards the status of the ARAB world in CENTRAL ASIAN countries, that takes precedence in comparison to that of the plight of MUSLIMS elsewhere in the world - combined with the 1,300-year old prophecy in the HADITH about a MALAHIM (day of reckoning) in DABIQ, SYRIA, that the IS uses to recruit and gain sympathy among masses - has the potential to destabilize the social fabric of the region. 

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NON-ANTI-SHI'ITE POLICIES OF AL-QAEDA

The difference will be noted in AL-QAEDA'S approach towards sectarianism in comparison to the IS approach. AL-QAEDA, thought a violent Islamist terrorist group, never sought the absolute elimination of the SHI'ITES. Conversely, the IS policies are as much about the elimination of SHI'ITES as their goal to expand the borders of the "ISLAMIC CALIPHATE". 

This could again lead to the softening of opinions about AL-QAEDA, among the people. While most residents of the region may not approve of AL-QAEDA, in the face of two evils, the masses will choose the lesser evil; and the numbers will matter because the relatively non-anti-SHI'ITE policies of AL-QAEDA will, comparatively, resonate positively among SHI'ITES, who cumulatively make up a considerable chunk of region's population. 

THE NEW RESOURCES CURSE 

The AFGHANISTAN-TURKMENISTAN border, which is already teeming with SALAFI ISLAMISTS, could become problematic for AFGHANISTAN. The comparatively weak structure of the KYRGYZ governmental systems could easily be taken advantage of to gain a foothold in the country. TAJIK oil fields could become especially accessible to the resource-seeking IS, if the group manages to get an anchor in the eastern region of the country. AFGHANISTAN too is flush with resources - tapping which is mostly only held up because of security problems. 

Essentially, the draw of resources that can fund the CALIPHATE combined with the historical narrative of greater KHURASAN together have the potential to hit the region where it hurts most: in its social fabric. Given the complex multicultural, multi-ethnic and multi-religious nature of western SOUTH ASIA and CENTRAL ASIA, any shift in balance in the social construct would set the region back by decades. 

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AFGHAN LINCHPIN

AFGHANISTAN is the linchpin that has the potential to play decision-maker, as the fight for KHURASAN is likely to culminate in a showdown in the country, especially at the AF-PAK border along the DURAND Line. If all regional countries work together in conjunction with KABUL to ensure the stability in AFGHANISTAN post the withdrawal of WESTERN troops, the region will be better guarded to fight the new threat. 

The KHURASAN narrative is extremely central to dealing with this menace, for, the terrorists view the region from the point of view of a single construct, and their planning will be on similar lines. Therefore, if the Khurasan narrative is studied and understood thoroughly, and if planned well, AFGHANISTAN could, together with IRAN and the CENTRAL ASIAN countries, be the torchbearer in halting the eastward advance of the IS. 

By Rajeshwari Krishnamurthy

Mr. Rajeshwari Krishnamurthy  is a research officer and member of the editorial board of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in India