Alternativ Meinung Oder Propaganda ?

Friedliche Demonstranten oder bewaffnete Terroristen?

von Freeman

Es ist schon eine Unverschämtheit, mit welchem Eifer die westlichen Medien ein einseitiges Bild über Syrien zeigen. Es wird die übliche Propaganda verbreitet, das böse Regime von Assad geht brutal gegen harmlose Zivilisten vor. Im Unterton wird dann der Vorwurf erhoben, "... und die ganze Welt schaut tatenlos zu", um wieder die Zustimmung für einen neuen Krieg und Einmarsch zu bekommen. Die Gutmenschen lassen sich wieder täuschen und empören sich. Dabei handelt es sich um eine geplante Inszenierung wie im Film "Wag the Dog – Wenn der Schwanz mit dem Hund wedelt" über die Macht der Medienmanipulation.

Wann verstehen wir endlich, es gibt einen Unterschied zwischen der Realität und wie die Realität dargestellt wird. Oder, was wirklich passiert und wie die Wirklichkeit über die Medien präsentiert wird. Man kann mit Videos, Fotos und einem entsprechenden Kommentar durch einen Moderator, jeden gewünschten Eindruck bei den Zuschauern hinterlassen, der aber nicht der Wahrheit entspricht.

Wir haben es ja bei der ARD gesehen. Dort wurden Aufnahmen aus dem Irak von 2007 als aktuelle aus Syrien uns präsentiert. Alte Youtube-Videos wurden verwendet um uns zu täuschen. Ein gewaltsames Vorgehen gegen Drogenhändler im Irak wurde uns als ein Übergriff von syrischen Polizisten auf unschuldige Zivilisten verkauft. Ja die ARD macht so etwas und die anderen Medienanstalten auch.

Es wird in den Medien laufend bewusst beschissen und dem Publikum ein falsches Bild gezeigt, um die Meinung in die gewünschte Richtung zu lenken. Die westlichen Medien haben nicht den Auftrag uns korrekt zu informieren, sondern uns zu manipulieren. Das Wort "Nachrichten" kommt von "nach etwas richten", also die Meinung des Empfängers wie gewünscht ausrichten.

Kein Wort wir darüber gesagt, es handelt sich in Syrien wieder um bewaffnete vom Ausland gesteuerte Banden, welche gegen den Staat und gegen die syrische Bevölkerung Terror ausüben. Die westlichen Regierungen tun vordergründig so, wie wenn es um Menschenrechte und Frieden geht, während sie hinten rum mit ihren Geheimdiensten und Militär nützliche Idioten ausbilden, bewaffnen, einschleusen und einen Aufstand inszenieren, um eine unliebsame Regierung zu stürzen. Parallel dazu läuft der Propaganda-Skript.

Auf dem Rafiq Hariri International Airport in Beirut haben die libanesischen Behörden den verdächtigen Inhalt eines Frachtflugzeugs beschlagnahmt. Darunter handelt es sich um grosse Mengen an US-Dollar, Waffen, Elektronik, Pässe und Kreditkarten. Die Maschine kam aus den USA und Brasilien. Es wird vermutet, die Ware sollte über den Libanon zu den in Syrien operierenden Rebellen gelangen. Die libanesische Regierung hat bestätigt, Waffenlieferungen gehen über die Grenze nach Syrien, trotz ihrer Versuche es zu verhindern.

Die Liste der von der CIA durchgeführten Umstürze in Südamerika, Afrika, Asien und im Nahen und Mittleren Osten, die so abgelaufen sind ist endlos. Syrien ist wieder so ein Fall und im Iran genauso. Ihr müsst verstehen, damit will ich überhaupt nicht sagen, die angegriffenen Regierungen sind heilig. Nur, vom Ausland einen Umsturz durchzuführen, nur weil einem die Regierung nicht passt, ist völlig unakzeptabel.

Wir würden uns auch jede Einmischung aus dem Ausland oder sogar die Entsendung bewaffneter Gruppen in unsere Länder die Terror ausüben, um unsere Regierungen zu stürzen, strengstens verbitten. Eine Veränderung muss grundsätzlich die Bevölkerung selber wollen und durchführen und es muss so friedlich wie möglich geschehen. Dazu braucht es keine "Hilfe" aus dem Ausland und von den NATO-Verbrechern schon gar nicht.

Ich bin strikt gegen jede fremde Intervention und Einmischung in die internen Angelegenheiten eines Landes. Es geht um Selbstbestimmung und nicht Fremdbestimmung.

Jetzt beurteilt selber, ob es sich bei den gezeigten Gruppen in den folgenden Fotos aus Syrien um friedliche Demonstranten oder bewaffnete Terroristen handelt. Wo haben sie die Gewehre, Munition und Panzerfäuste her? Wer versorgt sie mit Geld und Information? Für was benötigen sie diese Waffen? Doch nur um Terroranschläge zu verüben, die dann von der syrischen Regierung bekämpft werden müssen. Dabei werden auch Zivilisten betroffen, verletzt und getötet. Nur genau dieses Chaos will man verursachen, um es propagandistisch auszuschlachten und von außen eingreifen zu können.

Shift in tactics?

ASSAD WINS OUT AGAINST OPPOSITION AS RUSSIA AND IRAN STRENGTHEN TIES

 Via DEBKAfile

Western intelligence sources reporting in real time found Saturday night, Feb. 11, that Bashar Assad's loyal military and security forces had by and large managed to subdue the rebellion against the regime. They are now purging the last pockets of resistance, especially in Syria's third largest city, Homs. Still to come are possible flare-ups here and there and inevitably more horror stories of atrocities, but to all intents and purposes Syria's eleven-month uprising is all but over.

In recent days, mass demonstrations and battles with armed rebels have virtually disappeared from the streets of the main protest centers of Daraa, Hama, Deir al-Zour, Abu Kemal, Zabadan and the restive outskirts of Damascus, which armed rebels briefly captured last month.
In Homs, soldiers of the 40^th and 90^th mechanized brigades are hunting down rebels hiding in the town and shooting them on sight.

A new name joined the gallery of Syrian mass murderers this week: Gen. Zuhair al-Assad, commander of the brutal six-day tank-backed assault and siege of Homs. This kinsman of the president had no qualms about gunning down hundreds of civilians in order to liquidate a small armed rebel group.
debkafile's military sources report that without outside armed intervention to halt the bloodbath – and there is no sign of any repetition of the NATO action which cut short Muammar Qaddafi's long reign – Bashar Assad will soon finish crushing the popular and armed resistance against him, helped by arms and military backing from Russia, Iran and Hizballah. 

Military intervention is not on the cards for the United States - Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu was told Friday, Feb. 9 when he arrived in Washington to request US participation in organizing a Turkish-Arab operation in Syria or, at least, the supply of Western and Arab arms to the Syrian rebels.

Of the six revolts against Arab autocracies in the past year, two were crushed. The King of Bahrain was saved by Saudi and Gulf military support and now Assad looks like being the second survivor. 

The difference between them is that the Al-Khalifa House of Bahrain was rescued by Arab forces while the Syrian president is stamping out the uprising against him with the help of non-Arab powers, Iran and Russia.

Both powers sent important officials to Damascus last week: Iran's al Qods Brigades commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani was there Sunday and Monday (5-6 Feb.) at the head of a large military-intelligence delegation. No sooner was it gone when Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and SVR intelligence chief Mikhail Fradkov were deposited at the door of Assad's presidential palace.

According to debkafile's military and intelligence sources, both were on missions to finalize Russian-Iranian-Syrian collaboration in Syria and the Middle East after the regime finally suppresses the revolt.

Saturday night, Moscow pledged to continue to shield the Assad regime at the United Nations
Although fighting continues in some places, Bashar Assad is at the threshold of a major success. His victory may be short-lived but it is significant all the same, offering kudos for the Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah alliance and a contretemps for the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Britain and Argentina

SO TELL ME, PART OF MALVINAS – FALKLAND SABER RATTLING BY THE BRITISH IS NOT ABOUT PROTECTING THE UK’S FISHING INDUSTRY 

The Falkland Islands have a GDP of $105 million, and a per capita GDP of $35,400 (2002 estimate) placing the islands on a par with the United Kingdom (GDP per capita of $35,200 – 2009 estimate). The contributors to the GDP by sector are:

• Fisheries – 52.5%
• Government (including health and education) – 14.0%
• Communications, Finance and Business services – 11.4%
• Hospitality & Transport – 7.7%
• Construction – 6.6%
• Housing and other services – 3.2%
• Mining. Quarrying & Manufacturing – 2.1%
• Agriculture – 1.6%
• Utilities – 0.9%

BRITISH MEDIA OFFENSIVE

British newspaper The Telegraph writes in its Monday the 13^th of February online edition:

 Via The Telegraph:

Argentina starts 'squid war' against Falkland Islands 

Argentina has reportedly started a "squid war" against the Falkland Islands, telling fishermen to catch the creatures before they reach the waters around the British territory.

Argentina reportedly hopes the orders will deal a blow to the Falkland Islands' fishing industry, which is worth up to £45 million a year – half of which comes from catches of Illex squid
Illex squid start their one-year lives off the River Plate, which marks the border of Argentina and Uruguay, in September and move southwards as they grow.
Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary William Hague warned South American nations not to collude with Argentina's ban on allowing ships from the Falkland Islands to dock in their ports.
Britain has ruled the Falklands, 290 miles (460 kilometres) east of Argentina's coast, for more than 180 years. However, Argentina also claims sovereignty, losing a brief war over the islands in 1982. Offshore oil exploration in the area has encouraged new waves of nationalism on both sides.
Last month, Argentina persuaded Brazil, Uruguay and Chile to join a Mercosur trade group resolution to turn away any ship flying the Falklands' flag, which shows a sheep and a ship along with the United Kingdom's red, white and blue Union Jack.

MEDIA INSULT

British media offensive against Argentina last week reached its climax when the Falkland Island Newspaper “The Penguin News” referred to the Argentine President as a “Bitch”.

The Guardian online edition wrote:

Falkland Islands newspaper calls Cristina Fernández de Kirchner a bitch

Thousands of complaints after insult that followed Fernández accusing Britain of militarising south Atlantic islands

The Falkland Island newspaper the Penguin News has triggered uproar on Argentinian social networks by calling President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner a bitch.

The newspaper's website uploaded a photo of Fernández briefly using the insult as a file name on Wednesday, a day after she accused Britain of militarizing the south Atlantic islands.

The word triggered an immediate avalanche of complaints and abuse from Argentinians, reflecting heightened sensitivity towards the archipelago in the runup to the 30th anniversary of the war with Britain.
The Buenos Aires daily La Nacion said the word, "perra" in Spanish, was a strong "anglo-saxon term ... signifying disrespect". Within hours more than 2,000 readers responded with comments, many vitriolic.
The Penguin News, which is printed weekly and online updated daily, usually has a tiny readership – the islands have a population of 3,000 – but the escalating diplomatic row between London and Buenos Aires has in recent weeks attracted many readers in Argentina which calls the islands Las Malvinas and asserts ownership.

To illustrate a story about Fernández's speech on Tuesday it uploaded a photograph of the president with the offending word. Those who saved the image found that the default file name was "bitch".
Challenged by an Argentinian on her Twitter feed the editor, Lisa Watson, replied: "emmm oops – not now you'll find." The word was removed. Watson referred to colleagues' "dry humour". By then however the page had been saved and posted on multiple websites, prompting online fury.
The editor's Twitter feed reflected angry and often vicious hate messages. Penguin staff did not reply to emails or phone calls last night but last week, before the controversy, Watson told the Guardian she had been receiving abusive messages for weeks.

"I receive threats and insults via our work email address and on Twitter. The threats I try not to take seriously, particularly as the individuals tend to sign their name and even offer 'besos' (kisses) after claiming they are coming to the Falklands and their first task will be to kill me. Mainly I am referred to as a prostitute, liar, thief and pirate, other words I really wouldn't like to mention."
She did not keep such emails, she said. "I read and delete immediately because it's not something you want to keep as a souvenir, but one said 'Die you decadence whore', others say things like 'I am coming to the Malvinas so walk softly because I will find you.'"

She did not take them seriously. "I assume it is simply people momentarily angry because they have read something in their newspaper about the islands – I suppose we all feel like that sometimes but threatening to kill me seems a little extreme."
Watson said she was more upset about random calls to islanders. "It's intimidating to be woken in the night to someone shouting at you in Spanish."

Nevertheless she said it was important to have dialogue. "I have no objection to chatting and debating with Argentines. My reason for doing so is in the hope they will see us as a people with our own culture and our own thoughts. I live in hope that they will understand we are not 'British imperialists' but a population that has struggled to develop this little country and deserve to be allowed to live in peace.
"I should say that I also receive many messages of support from Argentines or messages from people who do not agree with my point of view but want to offer kind thoughts anyway."

FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA, THE PERSIAN GULF, THE SOUTH ATLANTIC TO ANTARCTICA, IT’S ALL ABOUT NATURAL RESOURCES

Antarctica

BRITISH INCREASED PRESENCE ON THE MALVINAS – FALKLAND ISLANDS IS PRIMARILY ABOUT FAST ACCESS TO THE ANTARCTICA, OIL EXTRACTION AND FISHERY INDUSTRY INTERESTS

IT’S ABOUT  ANTARCTICA 

Se trata de la ANTÁRTIDA

Recientes actitudes belicistas alrededor de  las Islas Malvinas  entre Gran Bretaña y ARGENTINA, en vísperas del 30 aniversario de la guerra de Malvinas, no tienen que ver con la defensa de los isleños y el resto de la retórica de Gran Bretaña de confrontación que utiliza para justificar sus acciones recientes. Se trata de  los descubrimientos de petróleo, los intereses de la industria pesquera y para asegurar un fuerte militar en el Cono Sur con el fin de tener acceso rápido a la Antártida el momento que el Tratado Antártico se convertirá en nulo y una carrera para la explotación de los recursos naturales y la extracción resultará en guerra  "entre los países que reclaman el territorio en el continente. Esto conducirá muy probablemente a los enfrentamientos armados y por lo tanto, Gran Bretaña, con sus  bases en  MALVINAS  tendrá una ventaja militar para proteger a la fuerza sus intereses nacionales.

Recent warmongering over the MALVINAS - FALKLAND Islands between BRITAIN and ARGENTINA on the eve of the 30^th anniversary of the FALKLAND –MALVINAS war are not about the defense of the Islanders and the rest of confrontational rhetoric’s BRITAIN uses to justify its recent actions. They are  about latest oil discoveries, fishing industry interests and to ensure a military stronghold on the SOUTHERN CONE in order to have quick access to the ANTARCTICA the minute the ANTARCTIC TREATY becomes void and a run for natural resource exploitation and extraction will result in quarrels’ between countries claiming territory on the continent. This will most likely lead to armed confrontations and thus BRITAIN, with its MALVINAS – FALKLAND base will have a military advantage to forcefully protect its national interests. 

  

ARE ANTARCTICA NATURAL RESOURCES WORTH THE QUARREL?

SON LOS RECURSOS NATURALES ANTARTICOS LO SUFICIENTEMENTE VALIOSOS PARA LA GUERRA?

Antártida contiene el 75% del agua dulce del mundo. Se encuentra libre de contaminación. También cuenta con gran cantidad de recursos naturales como la flora y la fauna, minerales, petróleo, carbón, etc.

Se cree que el continente antártico tiene grandes depósitos de minerales, combustibles (aproximadamente 45.000 millones de barriles y ~ 115 billones de pies cúbicos de gas) y carbón (~ 11% del total mundial). Esto se puede comprobar mediante el uso de la técnica moderna y sofisticada para la evaluación de los recursos. A partir de ahora, la minería está prohibida en la Antártida. Los países miembros del Tratado Antártico (1959) han firmado el tratado para la no explotación de los recursos antárticos, y ayuda a mantener el continente libre de conflictos.

Sin embargo, debido a la creciente población humana y la necesidad de recursos en el futuro, es obvio que para el año 2040, la Antártida se convierte en el objetivo final para la explotación de recursos diversos.

ANTARCTICA holds 75% of the world’s fresh water.

(See http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/06/water-golden-commodity-of-future.html)

It is free from pollution. It also has enormous amount of natural resources such as fresh water, flora and fauna, minerals, oil, coal etc. 

It is believed that ANTARCTIC continent have large deposits of minerals, oils (~45,000 million barrels and ~115 trillion cubic feet of gas) and coal (~11% of the world’s total). This can be ascertained by using sophisticated modern technique for resource assessment. As of now, mining is banned in ANTARCTICA. The member nations of ANTARCTIC TREATY (1959) have signed the treaty for non-exploitation of ANTARCTIC resources and helps in keeping the continent free of conflicts.

However, due to increasing human population and the need for resources in future, it is obvious that by the year 2040, ANTARCTICA will become the final target for various resources exploitations.

BACKGROUND:

ARGENTINA’S foreign minister has accused the UK of deploying nuclear weapons near the disputed MALVINAS - FALKLAND Islands, militarizing the South Atlantic. Hector Timerman voiced the accusations as he lodged a formal protest with the UN. He said ARGENTINA had intelligence that BRITAIN had deployed a Vanguard class submarine in the area.

“Thus far the UK refuses to say whether it is true or not,” he told a journalists in New York. “Are there nuclear weapons or are there not? The information ARGENTINA has is that there are these nuclear weapons.”

Britain’s ambassador to the UN would not officially comment on disposition of BRITISH submarines, but called ARGENTINEAN allegations of UK’s militarization “manifestly absurd.” UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon said in a statement that he was concerned with the escalating row between ARGENTINA and BRITAIN over the MALVINAS - FALKLAND Islands. Earlier the BRITISH media reported that UK had deployed a Trafalgar-class nuclear-powered submarine armed only with conventional weapons to the region.

The tension between the two countries has surged in the run-up to the 30th anniversary of the MALVINAS - FALKLANDS War. Back in April 1982, ARGENTINA tried to take control of the islands, and claims as its rightful territory. BRITAIN repelled the attack with military force. More than 900 people were killed in the hostilities.

The current row has been brewing since at least 2010, when BRITISH companies started drilling for oil in the region. Argentina has put diplomatic and commercial pressure on the islands’ administration. Buenos Aires recently convinced LATIN AMERICAN countries no ban ships bearing the MALVINAS -FALKLAND Islands flag from their ports, troubling their supply logistics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Falkland_Islands

TESTS OF THE ANTARCTIC TREATY 

The ANTARCTIC TREATY set the base line for peace and security. But the treaty was necessary for a reason. Furthermore, the Treaty has undergone revision in order to maintain peace in an ever-evolving international environment.

The initial reason for an Antarctic Treaty was the overlapping claims of seven nations, BRITAIN, FRANCE, DENMARK, AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, CHILE and ARGENTINA to ANTARCTICA. War was inevitable when three countries claimed the same slice of the continent. The unknown value of the territory made the grab for territory even more contentious.

The ANTARCTIC TREATY rectified this situation by refuting all territorial claims to ANTARCTICA. However, this possibility still remains. The seven nations, although all original signatories of the Treaty, still nominally claim their sovereign territories. Furthermore, the UNITED STATES and RUSSIA, should the treaty structure fail, reserve the right to acquire territory. Hence, the infrastructure that supports the Treaty, and the additions and allow it to remain flexible become even more important. 

The next test for ANTARCTIC came in 1988, when an addition to the Treaty was proposed to regulate mining in ANTARCTICA. It was believed that oil reserves, as well as natural gas may be trapped underneath the eternal tundra and ice that covers the continent. Plans were made to enforce "safe" mining techniques, and study the environmental impacts mining had on the rare ecosystem. 

International outrage over the proposal was so strong, that many governments began to change their minds over the initiative. FRANCE and AUSTRALIA began to echo calls from other nations to make ANTARCTIC a global park. Nations in the UN argued that the environmental problems that ANTARCTIC would face would eventually face the world. When the initiative came to a vote, it was defeated. Instead, the consultative nations of the ANTARCTIC TREATY decided on the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the ANTARCTIC TREATY, commonly known as the MADRID PROTOCOL, in 1990. The Protocol first and foremost establishes ANTARCTICA as a natural reserve. Furthermore, it prohibits mining, and establishes a system for getting new scientific research approved by the Secretariat for international approval. 

One perpetual problem the Treaty faces is exclusivity. The Treaty precludes from consultative status (or voting status) any nations that do not have an on-going scientific program in ANTARCTICA. Repeated calls in the General Assembly have yet to lead to an opening up of the treaty. Despite the allowance of the UNEP to observe, poorer nations are being secluded from decision making on ANTARCTIC based on their poverty. ANTARCTIC cannot become a "global park" unless the entire globe is allowed to participate. In short, since what happens in ANTARCTICA does not stay in ANTARCTICA, these nations feel it is imperative that they should be allowed a say in the decisions that ultimately affect everyone. It is this dispute that puts the most pressure on the framework of Antarctica, and prevents other areas from being designated as an international territory. 

Eastern MEDITERRANEAN SEA

ISRAEL’S FIRST STATE VISIT TO CYPRUS AND ITS GEO-STRATEGIC REPERCUSSION FOR THE REGION

ENORMOUS OIL AND GAS FINDINGS IN THE LEVANTINE THREATEN THE “MONOPOLY” OF TRADITIONAL OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST 

To complicate the already fragile “coexistence” of ISRAEL and its ARAB neighbors, the prospect that ISRAEL, the arch foe of most ARAB counties could be a direct competitor in oil export in the not too distant future must cause alarm among the traditional oil producing countries and could also have indirect implications on the US strategic alliances with SAUDI ARABIA and the GOLF STATES.

If all is going according to plan, ISRAEL’S Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be visiting CYPRUS on February 16, the purpose of the trip – the first-ever visit by an ISRAELI prime minister to the island – is to boost cooperation on SECURITY and OFFSHORE DRILLING for natural gas and oil and an effort to create closer ties between the two nations.

SINCE TURKEY, OFFICIALLY AT LEAST, CUT TIES WITH ISRAEL, ISRAEL’S ONLY OPTION FOR FUTURE OIL AND GAS EXPORTS, GEO POLITICALLY SPEAKING, IS VIA “NEUTRAL” CYPRUS

The issue of gas and oil discoveries will clearly be a major topic of discussion during the visit for ISRAEL wants to strike an agreement with CYPRUS on cooperation in the delivery of the gas to markets in EUROPE and ASIA.

IAF (ISRAELI AIR FORCE) TO BE STATIONED IN CYPRUS

Historically speaking CYPRUS, for its strategic location in the MEDITERRANEAN SEA, has always been the focal point of military strategist. After gaining independence from the UK, CYPRUS was forced to accept two BRITISH SOVEREIGN BASE AREAS on its island which house a Signal Battalion in DHEKELIA operating sophisticated listening and observation devices directed towards the EAST and the Royal Air Force base in AKROTIRI which has been and still is used as a logistic and operational base for NATO coalition forces conducting operation in the Middle East.

Thus it comes as no surprise that ISRAEL is interested to establish external military presence in CYPRUS to compensate the loss of military cooperation and presence in TURKEY. It is therefore rumored that during the ISRAEL’S Prime Minster visit to CYPRUS, ISRAEL will also asked CYPRUS for permission to station military aircraft on the islands bases. 

THE TWO COUNTRIES RECENTLY SIGNED A COOPERATION AGREEMENT RELATING TO THE PROTECTION OF NATURAL GAS DRILLING SITES

The visit comes against a backdrop of worsening relations between ISRAEL and TURKEY following the May 2010 TURKISH flotilla incident, which is cited as the official reason for the rift between the countries but in reality it has always been because of the gas and oil findings and TURKEY’s double edged strategies of recent past. 

 

INCREASED DRILLING ACTIVITIES ANNOUNCED IN THE SOUTH EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN BASIN 

Prior to ISRAEL’S state visit in CYPRUS, NOBLE Energy (US-ISRAELI joint venture) announced that they will be back in Block 12 for more drilling sometime in the third quarter of this year.

At a symposium held in NICOSIA, organized by the INSTITUTE OF ENERGY OF SOUTH EAST EUROPE, based in GREECE http://www.iene.gr/Default.asp?lng=2 and the FMW media group http://www.fmwonline.com/, NOBLE Energy stressed that recent findings look encouraging and therefore the company decided to drill a second well in Block 12 which, according to estimates should hold between 5 and 8 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas at a depth of 5,860 meters. NOBLE stressed that this is only a pinhole and that more findings are imminent.

Noble’s next step would be to carry out engineering studies for the necessary facilities (for example the wellheads) as well as for a pipeline running from the field to the island’s southern shores of CYPRUS.

NATURAL RESOURCES FINDINGS ARE A ECONOMY AS WELL AS GEO POLITICAL BOOST FOR CYPRUS 

NOBLE’S proposal for building an LNG plant on the island to export the gas, saying this was a flexible solution for CYPRUS and would generate work for about 4000 people who would generate cash for the island as well as additional jobs created by spinoff businesses once CYPRUS becomes a natural gas producer.

GREECE’S DEPA (Public Gas Corporation) stated that the coming decade will see a growing supply gap for natural gas in EUROPEAN countries, and proposed that CYPRIOT gas be piped to GREECE and then onto BULGARIA and SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE.

ISRAEL HAS BECOME A KEY STRATEGIC ALLY TO GREECE AND CYPRUS

GREECE plans to build an interconnector by 2014 that will link the country’s grid with the BULGARIAN network, channeling gas from the CASPIAN to the EUROPEAN continent. In conjunction to recent findings in the LEVANTINE, the governments of GREECE and CYPRUS stressed that ISRAEL has become a key strategic ally for both countries and thus the governments should rise to the occasion and take advantage of this opportunity.

Greek politicians attending the symposium in NICOSIA stressed that both countries should take a more pragmatic approach to politics, noting that the oft-cited traditional friendship with the ARAB WORLD is, in many respects, a myth for there is no such thing as one ARAB WORLD, and one should not forget that a number of member countries of the ORGANIZATION OF THE ISLAMIC CONFERENCE have recognized “NORTH CYPRUS”. See Cyprus conflict:

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprus_dispute

 

ENORMOUS GAS FINDINGS AND PROSPECTS OF OIL FINDINGS COMPLICATE TURKEYS STANCE IN THE REGION 

New tension is brewing between TURKEY and CYPRUS after CYPRUS’ and ISRAEL’S enormous gas finds in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN in 2010-11 and TURKEY’S extremely negative reaction to those finds. TURKEY can be embroiled with a conflict, not only with CYPRUS, its EUROPEAN backers and ISRAEL, but with RUSSIA as well. The CYPRUS energy conflict demonstrates the urgency of making progress on the tangled issue of CYPRUS’ future and the relationships among its two ethno-religious groups.

2011 was a difficult year in TURKEY’S relations with CYPRUS and 2012 does not look much better. CYPRUS will hold the rotating Presidency of the EU from July to December and given a weak government at home, recent events will do nothing to ease conditions for TURKEY’S entry into the EU. That means it will not support nor make any concessions on the vexed issue of the TURKISH REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN CYPRUS. But those were not the issues that caused more tensions in 2011 and are likely to do so in 2012.

NEW TENSION BETWEEN TURKEY AND CYPRUS REVOLVE AROUND CYPRUS AND ISRAEL’S ENORMOUS GAS FINDS

The new tension between TURKEY and CYPRUS revolve around CYPRUS and ISRAEL’S enormous gas finds in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN in 2010-11. The issues relating to CYPRUS’ gas could embroil TURKEY, not only with CYPRUS, its EUROPEAN backers, and ISRAEL, but also with RUSSIA, its supposed friend and partner.

MUCH NEEDED ECO- FINANCIAL BOOST FOR CYPRUS AFTER RUSSIA’S BAILOUT, BUT WITH GEO STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS 

During 2009 and 2010, CYPRUS and ISRAEL discovered enormous natural gas deposits off their shores in the Mediterranean Sea. And in late 2011 NOBLE ENERGY, the firm contracted by CYPRUS with exploring for gas in its waters, announced a discovery of gas estimated at 5-8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas there. This discovery could not come at a better time for CYPRUS, which in 2011 endured a slippage in its fiscal ratings, was shut out of international capital markets, hit by a large munitions blast, and was finally forced to accept a RUSSIAN bailout. All told, the discoveries by both countries amount to 33 trillion cubic feet of gas (ca. 1 trillion cubic meters). And the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the Levant Basin, where most of these discoveries have occurred, may hold 122 TCF (3.4 tcm).

REDUCING TURKISH LEVERAGE UPON CYPRUS’ POLICIES REGARDING THE CYPRIOT TURKS AND CYPRUS’ OVERALL POLICIES IN GENERAL

But these discoveries also have some negative repercussions. They have heightened tensions on CYPRUS between the two states there and with Turkey. The discoveries offer CYPRUS the prospect of becoming a local economic powerhouse in contrast to the near disasters of 2011 and of thus reducing TURKISH leverage upon CYPRUS’ policies regarding the CYPRIOT TURKS and CYPRUS’ overall policies in general. 

INCREASE FOREIGN INVESTMENT 

Indeed, the gas finds to date give CYPRUS enough gas to meet its needs for an estimated 150 years, fully satisfy its electricity generating needs for 210 years, and provide it with billions of dollars of revenues that will allow it to become a major exporter to EUROPE once pipelines or tankers carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) can be built. So it can also expect an influx of much more foreign EUROPEAN capital to build those facilities, strengthen and diversify its sources of foreign investment. It is likely that a pipeline will have to be built to connect with those that presently or soon will cross TURKEY, or that a liquefaction plant will need to be built to process CYPRIOT and ISRAELI gas finds. Not surprisingly, the “TRNC” government reacted coolly to the gas discovery and TURKEY, which does not recognize the government of CYPRUS, even sent an exploration ship accompanied by warships and fighter jets to the area after Noble started drilling.

TURKISH THREATS DEEPLY DISTURB CYPRUS AND RUSSIA

However, TURKEY’S threats against CYPRUS and ISRAEL due to their exploration and drilling for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean caused concern in RUSSIA. Moscow recently organized a large loan to CYPRUS to sustain it against a crisis should GREECE or CYPRUS default because so many RUSSIAN accounts are held in CYPRUS’ banks and then reinvested in RUSSIA or used to launder the elite’s money by cycling it out of RUSSIA into the global banking system. Clearly, Moscow cannot allow CYPRUS to go under. Turkish threats therefore deeply disturb both CYPRUS and RUSSIA. 

GREECE, CYPRUS, RUSSIA AND ISRAEL - CONNECTED BY FAITH  

One should not forget that GREECE RUSSIA and CYPRUS are close allies, not only because of economic bonds but also religion; they all are part of ORTHODOX CHRISTIANITY, something that should not be underestimated when it comes to fight for a common cause. Furthermore RUSSIA has certain interests in ISRAEL for there are more than one million RUSSIAN immigrants living in ISRAEL, some of whom are of extreme wealth. 

Once TURKEY’S navy openly threatened CYPRUS for signing an agreement with NOBLE ENERGY who also developed ISRAEL’S maritime gas fields, RUSSIA’S Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly backed CYPRUS’ right to develop its Mediterranean gas. CYPRUS in turn labeled Moscow “a shield against any threats by TURKEY.” CYPRUS’ Prime Minister was also then able to charge TURKEY with being a regional bully. Furthermore, RUSSIA dispatched an aircraft carrier with fighter planes, and at least one submarine to CYPRUS as a show of support for in an open example of it version of gunboat diplomacy. In other words, Moscow made clear that it would not tolerate TURKISH threats against CYPRUS, adding another issue to what is becoming an increasingly troubled agenda of RUSSO-TURKISH relations. 

The natural resource findings will give Cyprus the leverage of no longer being economically vulnerable to TURKISH pressure or to demands for concessions regarding the TURKISH population on the island. This means a substantial diminution of any prospective influence TURKEY may have had in the past or hoped to have in the future.

CYPRIOT AND ISRAELI DISCOVERIES AND PLANS TO SELL GAS TO EUROPE DIRECTLY CUT AGAINST TURKISH ASPIRATIONS OF BEING A MAJOR ENERGY HUB FOR EUROPE.

Given CYPRUS’ partnership with ISRAEL, TURKISH threats against CYPRUS will aggravate the tense relationship with ISRAEL that has already caused major headaches for TURKEY in Washington and has left it with being in the bizarre position of simultaneously having deteriorating relations with IRAN, SYRIA, and ISRAEL. Economic ties between the two countries though, do not have seemed to diminish. 
(See: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/01/see-no-evil-hear-no-evil.html) The size of the CYPRIOT and ISRAELI discoveries and the plans to sell much of that gas to EUROPE directly cut against TURKISH aspirations that are part of a deep elite consensus that Turkey’s geography makes it an energy hub for Europe. Now there could be alternative energy sources from the greater neighborhood that will go to Europe over which Turkey has little or no leverage.

RUSSIA LIKELY TO DEMAND ENTRÉE INTO FUTURE GAS BUSINESS FROM CYPRUS AND ISRAEL 

RUSSIA has already demonstrated its will and ability to check TURKEY in regard to CYPRUS. That interest will only grow in the future because it is inconceivable that Moscow, which sees itself as being EUROPE’S main supplier of gas, will simply let Israel and Cyprus cut in with such massive impact into its sales and compete with it at no cost. This does not mean the use of military force but it does suggest that Moscow will bring substantial pressure to bear on CYPRUS, especially since it bailed out CYPRUS from possible default by providing generous loans, if not ISRAEL, to demand entrée into the gas business from their recent discoveries.

RUSSIA’S PRESENCE IN THIS SECTOR OF THE GAS MARKET WOULD ENHANCE ITS LEVERAGE VIS-À-VIS TURKEY IN THEIR BILATERAL ENERGY DEALINGS AND LIMIT TURKEY’S ABILITY TO POSTURE AS A MAJOR ENERGY HUB 

Not only does this make it harder for TURKEY to coerce CYPRUS, it also has negative implications for TURKEY. RUSSIA’S presence in this sector of the gas market would enhance its leverage vis-à-vis TURKEY in their bilateral energy dealings and limit TURKEY’S ability to posture as an energy hub with the attendant benefits thereof. From time immemorial Geo-politicians and geographers of all stripes have known that whoever controls CYPRUS possesses the means to threaten with serious damage TURKEY’S Mediterranean ports. Given RUSSIA’S proclivities and that of its naval commanders who seek permanent anchorages and bases in the Mediterranean and may be in trouble in SYRIA due to its uprising, to seek such a facility at CYPRUS may be tempting. This challenges TURKISH security and NATO planning as well. But in conjunction with the TURKISH threats to CYPRUS and Moscow’s expected demand for a major place in CYPRUS’ energy trade, it is a highly probable outcome based on existing trends.

In past and present, CYPRUS has always been fought over because of its strategic position in the Mediterranean Sea, now natural resource findings at the shores of the island have add to the quest on who controls the Island. 

TURKEY’S ZERO PROBLEMS WITH NEIGHBORS HAS RUN AGROUND ON THE SHOALS OF THESE NEIGHBORS’ COMPETITIVE INTERESTS

The CYPRUS issue, considered in all its many dimensions, highlights the fact that TURKEY’S zero problems with neighbors has run aground on the shoals of these neighbors’ competitive interests with those of TURKEY and with great power politics in the overall Mediterranean basin. The CYPRUS issue also shows the limits of TURKISH power despite the ambitious and even aggressive rhetoric emanating from Ankara. It suggests the need for TURKEY to find a modus vivendi with CYPRUS, if not ISRAEL, as it did earlier with RUSSIA. Some will say that it also shows the need for arriving at such an outcome as well or continuing to abide by the existing one with Moscow. But here, in fact, there was such an agreement, and despite the recent energy agreements signed with RUSSIA, CYPRUS is merely one of many signs of what is arguably a worsening trend in TURKEY’S relations with a RUSSIA that is as ambitious as TURKEY and even more aggressive insofar as its vital interests are involved.

THE CYPRUS ENERGY CONFLICT ALSO SERVES ANOTHER REMINDER THAT ENERGY POLITICS ARE INSEPARABLE FROM LARGER SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS

The CYPRUS energy conflict also serves another reminder that energy politics are inseparable from larger security considerations and produce new issues and combinations that undermine the status quo. It also shows the urgency of making progress on the tangled issue of CYPRUS’ future and the relationships among its two ethnoreligous groups. 

Parts of above article have been adopt from “The Silk Road”