The Assad dilemma

Subject: Middle East

Food for Thought 

The Assad dilemma

• Fear of civil war is imminent

• Tumbling of regime could be used by fundamentalists to seize power

• Foreign entities are uncertain to either support or oppose the Assad regime for fear of greater instability  in the Middle East

Despite numerous claims that the Syrian regime is about to tumble, one has to consider if foreign entities really are favoring such objective for there are too many unknowns in such scenario.  Until the uprising, the country has been rather “stable” in terms of keeping fundamentalism among other issues at bay.  A tumble of the regime could easily trigger unpredicted clashes among rival fractions which could lead the country to civil war and subsequently to uprising of fundamentalist, a situation the USA, Israel and Europe are eager to prevent.

In most likelihood, as is the case with Egypt and Tunisia, mainstream media will slowly but surely cease to report on Syria’s “Revolution” and subsequently public interest will subside, thus permitting the regime to continue its agenda.

During the second Gulf War the USA could have easily “liberated” Syria, but refrained from doing so, since they realized, or obtained relevant information to the fact that if they tumble the Assad regime, they will face the same dilemma as in Iraq, namely a civil war among the various rival fractions which so far had been kept “under controlled “in Syria by the Assad regime.

In the long run the Syrian upraise will most likely not succeed to tumble the current regime, simply because, geopolitical speaking it is not in the interest of various foreign entities  to have a unknown, unpredictable and in the worst case scenario a fundamental extremist governing body ruling Syria.

  

Background Information: See also an interesting article regarding Syria at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MD28Ak01.html

Food for Thought: Most media covering the Syrian protests, mention that Facebook, Mobile Phones and the Internet are the key factors which triggered the protest waves in Arabic countries and keep feeding Syrian protesters with information. Knowing how rigorous the Assad regime, or any other regime in countries such as Egypt, Tunisia etc., monitor and control Internet access it seems rather questionable if the internet is or was the powerful tool which triggered the upraising.

Furthermore one has to consider where the Syrian protest started. In Daraa, a city in the south of Syria, which has a far lesser infrastructure then Damascus, where the majority of people are living below the poverty line. 

Thus internet access, in most likelihood, is not such a common as widely believed.  Sending a private fax from the central post office in Damascus requires the sender to leave a photocopy of the Fax with the authorities in order to control the content.  Internet was only introduced in Syria around 2002 and mobile phone services even later.