SYRIAN REGIME LIKELY TO SURVIVE UPRAISE

 

• SYRIA cleverly exploits WESTERN Powers “ISLAMOPHOBIA”, the conflict with ISRAEL and the ethnicity conflict to its advantage
• Risk of civil war with similar outcome as in IRAQ make Western Powers reluctant to support the fall of the current regime.
• NATO member states lack both, financial as well as logistic capacity nor the political willingness to intervene in the SYRIAN conflict.
• A new but in most likelihood instable regime in SYRIA is something TURKEY and LEBANON oppose for fear of spreading instability in their country.  

As stated in my previous article “THE ASSAD DILEMMA” it seems more and more likely that the SYRIAN regime is going to survive the uprising simply because it knows how to exploit the Western powers “Islamophobia”, the conflict with ISRAEL and the ethnicity issue. 

Furthermore it would not be in interest of the Western powers of having another unstable civil war like scenario in region, which would only play in the hands of IRAN.                                                                 

Western Powers still struggle with their misjudgment of the IRAQ invasion after “liberating” the country from SADDAM HUSSEIN. The chances of a similar scenario in SYRIA, at the doorsteps to ISRAEL and subsequent IRANIAN warmongering would not be something Western Powers would want, not only for political reasons but also for economic reasons. 

NATO as such is already stretched to its limit, both logistically and financially. Neither the US government nor the EUROPEAN UNION will be in the financial position to intervene in SYRIA in case of an escalating civil war, or in the worst case scenario, a confrontation between SYRIA and ISRAEL.  In which case SYRIA would most probably supported by IRAN. 

Besides WESTERN Powers, TURKEY and LEBANON are opposing a tumbling of the current SYRIAN regime, for fear of strengthening the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD and other emerging JIHADI Sects, within the close proximity of both countries.