Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: SAUDIA ARABIA, USA, TURKEY versus IRAN, RUSSIA and CHINA

"PLAYOFF" in Syria

SUNNI - SAUDI ARABIA against SHIITE - IRAN and SYRIA

SYRIA'S regime will never tumble unless Iran allows it to tumble, but that will most probably not occur, for SYRIA and HEZBOLLAH in LEBANON are front proxy of IRAN, and IRAN will not experience a regime change unless CHINA and RUSSIA see a strategic advantage in tumbling the regime in IRAN.

The USA and the SUNNI WAHHABI HOUSE OF SAUD together with TURKEY are pulling on a common string regarding SYRIA and its protege IRAN but are unable to find a sound strategy to proceed with SYRIA without exposing themselves, as well as politically backfire.

Needless to point out that a military intervention would stretch US defense budget to the limit, not to mention that of NATO member states such as ITALY, FRANCE and GERMANY, unless SAUDI ARABIA finances the intervention and uses fellow NATO state TURKEY to lead the operation which would play in the hands of the USA in order to “eliminate” Iran from the chessboard of the region.

SYRIA’S REVOLT BRINGS LEBANESE HISBOLLAH IN TURMOIL

The conflict in SYRIA brings an enormous collateral damage to the LEBANESE HEZBOLLAH itself. The Shiite organization that is backed by TEHRAN and DAMASCUS, is militarily and politically stronger and influential than ever: NAJIB MIKATI LEBANON’S Minister President, is the first head of state which is a HEZBOLLAH protégée, and yet, HEZBOLLAH has hit rock bottom as far as their reputation in LEBANON and SYRIA, but also in the rest of the Arab world, who paid tribute to HEZBOLLAH on their resilience; in particular the 2006 war with ISRAEL in which HEZBOLLAH emerged unbroken.

HEZBOLLAH’S “double standard", something HEZBOLLAH usually accuse the USA of, in light of Arab protest movements, is striking. In EGYPT, TUNISIA, YEMEN AND BAHRAIN, HEZBOLLAH, just as IRAN, was on the side of the protesters against pro Western Governments. In contrast to SYRIA’S upraise however, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, immediately favored the “resistance regime" in Damascus and Bashar al-Assad as the reformer, whereas the protesters acted in favor of ISRAEL and the UNITED STATES.

The aspect of which cannot even be denied. With the fall of Assad, Hezbollah’s lifeline to IRAN, currently running through Damascus will be cut and subsequently push Iran out of the region, one of the attractions of a “regime change" scenario - even for observers who strongly believe that with the fall of Assad, civil war and Fundamentalist Islamist takeover of power in SYRIA is imminent, with all the "non-pleasantries" and consequences for ISRAEL, the immediate neighbor of SYRIA.