MIDDLE EAST

The Volatile Middle East; Oil and Turmoil

In recent history the Middle East has always been an area of turmoil, where wars came and went and conflicts were interrupted by long periods of stability and progress. That, regretfully, no longer seems to be the case.

Today, the turmoil remains and the stability that interjected itself between times of conflict and that allowed people in this region to overcome the difficulties of political instability and open warfare is becoming something of a rarity.

What is becoming apparent however is that with the end of the Cold War countries that previously played a major role in the region – Egypt, Syria and Iraq – are today pre-occupied by internal strife that is keeping them tied down in their home patch. And those that have not experienced the humility of foreign occupation are looking over the castle walls to make sure no US Marines and soldiers are about to come calling, as the Saudis would have liked the US to do in Syria.

And on the reverse side of the coin, countries that previously played little or no vital role in the region, or kept a very low and discreet profile, like Saudi Arabia, are becoming more vociferous, more brazen and more active.

Another very active country is tiny Qatar, whose imprint on the Middle East and the world is far larger than the country itself thanks to its international satellite television network, al-Jazeera, a label that has become a household word in Europe, the Middle East and now in North America.

Using their oil revenues both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have invested tens of millions of dollars to promote, supply and sustain anti-government forces in Syria, hoping to overthrow the regime of President Bashar Assad. Indeed, Saudi Arabia has removed the gloves and is no longer trying to be diplomatic or discreet. It’s time for the big guns, so to speak.

Saudi Arabia was banking on the United States who had in the past stepped up to the plate to help its Saudi friends is not so eager to send its men and women off to fight and die for Saudi royalty.

While there is little doubt that a regime as brutal as the one in place in Damascus should not remain in power, what is questionable is whether Saudi Arabia’s policy is a smart one and whether it can backfire and eventually spread the conflict from the Levant to the oil-rich Gulf region, a region  that until now has been largely spared the type of violence seen in the Levant.

One quasi certainty is that if the violence continues unchecked as it has been in Syria, it is only a matter of time before it spreads. The entire region is sitting on a case of high explosives positioned on the edge of a dangerous precipice with a lit match inches away from the fuse.

The three largest countries in the region, Egypt, Syria and Iraq, traditionally the most influential in the region, are each facing grave internal strife.  Egypt is in a state of utter confusion, with a transition government running the country while no one really knows what the future holds. In the past Egypt was looked up to by other Arab countries. Syria, the other great center of political gravity in the Arab world is now in its third year of a bloody war that has left the country completely devastated.

And Iraq of course, is now falling into greater mayhem as al-Qaida sympathizers are challenging the government in Baghdad.

Lebanon, who had seen a brief period of some sort of pretended stability is now once again finding itself on the verge of its 19 year civil war reigniting.

Just look at the map: Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia are all in very precarious states. Jordan and Palestine, although quiet for now have a large undercurrent of instability brewing that may explode at a moment’s notice.

In Iraq, new clashes erupted Tuesday in the western part of the country between local tribesmen and al-Qaida militants who were trying to enter the city of Ramadi, forcing residents to blow up one of the bridges to slow down the rebel advance.

The entire Middle East is on the verge of unprecedented turmoil with no end in sight. Indeed, the frightening thought is what happens to the global economy if the fires of the Levant reach the oil fields of the Gulf?

By. Claude Salhani via Oilprice