In 2011 we wrote:Sunday, 19 June 2011
“Does Turkey really need the EU?”
TURKEY THE ULTIMATE STRATEGIST AND TACTICIAN
- TURKEYS thriving economy and geo-political influence is growing stronger in the BALKANS as well as the MIDDLE EAST
- EUROPE’S dept crisis and subsequent dependence on the IMF could change TURKEYS mind to join the EU
- TURKEY is at the verge of becoming one of the most influential power brokers between Orient and Oxidant
- TURKEY is expected to be the fastest growing economy of the OECD members during 2011-2017
IN THE NEAR FUTURE THE EUROPEAN UNION MIGHT NEED TURKEY MORE THAN TURKEY THE EUROPEAN UNION
The EU, as in most cases is deeply divided when it comes to the acceptance of TURKEY in the union. If the EU continues to prolong its indecisiveness regarding subject matter, TURKEY might well be changing its mind and turn its back altogether on Europe, for in reality it does not need the EU as much as the EU in most likelihood needs TURKEY in the near future.
Contrary to EUROPE, TURKEY’S economy is thriving; its geo-political influence in the Balkans, especially in BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA as well as in the MIDDLE EAST is growing and thus becoming a significant broker in both, economical and political issues, whereas the EU looses significance on eco-political influences in its close vicinity.
TURKEY ON THE FAST LANE
According to the website of the TURKISH STATISTICS INSTITUTE based in Ankara, GDP increased an annual 11.7 percent. TURKEY is expected to be the fastest growing economy of the OECD members during 2011-2017, with an annual average growth rate of 6.7 percent. The country survived the global crisis without Bank bailouts as was the case in many EU countries which were hit by the global economic crisis.
On the other hand the EUROPEAN UNION faces its worst dept – financial crises since its creation and thus relies heavily on the “help” of IMF (International Monetary Fund), which in its self causes a problem for it requires the entire EU to adhered to its fiscal as well as political policies which, as proven in almost all cases around the world, only drags countries using IMF intervention into even deeper financial chaos.
In view of these facts, TURKEY might be better off to focus on independent economic growth with emphasis on emerging economies such as RUSSIA, ASIA, SOUTH AMERICA etc. rather than a economic stagnating, orthodox, immigrant unfriendly and heavily divided EUROPEAN UNION, which in the near future will see a total collapse of its social security and welfare and most likely economic system, as a result of an aging population, dept ridden society and ignorant technocrats in Brussels.
TURKEY THE ULTIMATE STRATEGIST AND TACTICIAN
Geo-politically speaking, TURKEY has been a clever strategist and tactician in BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA and slowly expanded its influence in the predominantly Muslim part of the Federation. But not only in the Balkans, also in the MIDDLE EAST, has TURKEY become more and more a key player in international politics as well as economics.
Background Information: See http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jan/23/turkey-leverages-economy-for-global-power/
Food for Thought: According to a survey conducted by the GERMAN Marshall Plan Fond in 2011 only 38 % of Turks support joining the EU. In 2004 there were 73% supporting EU membership.
Sunday, 12 June 2011
The Assad dilemma
Subject: Middle East
Food for Thought
The Assad dilemma
- Fear of civil war is imminent
- Tumbling of regime could be used by fundamentalists to seize power
- Foreign entities are uncertain to either support or oppose the Assad regime for fear of greater instability in the Middle East
Despite numerous claims that the Syrian regime is about to tumble, one has to consider if foreign entities really are favoring such objective for there are too many unknowns in such scenario. Until the uprising, the country has been rather “stable” in terms of keeping fundamentalism among other issues at bay. A tumble of the regime could easily trigger unpredicted clashes among rival fractions which could lead the country to civil war and subsequently to uprising of fundamentalist, a situation the USA, Israel and Europe are eager to prevent.
In most likelihood, as is the case with Egypt and Tunisia, mainstream media will slowly but surely cease to report on Syria’s “Revolution” and subsequently public interest will subside, thus permitting the regime to continue its agenda.
In the long run the Syrian upraise will most likely not succeed to tumble the current regime, simply because, geopolitical speaking it is not in the interest of various foreign entities to have a unknown, unpredictable and in the worst case scenario a fundamental extremist governing body ruling Syria.
Background Information: See also an interesting article regarding Syria athttp://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MD28Ak01.html
Food for Thought: Most media covering the Syrian protests, mention that Facebook, Mobile Phones and the Internet are the key factors which triggered the protest waves in Arabic countries and keep feeding Syrian protesters with information. Knowing how rigorous the Assad regime, or any other regime in countries such as Egypt, Tunisia etc., monitor and control Internet access it seems rather questionable if the internet is or was the powerful tool which triggered the upraising.
Furthermore one has to consider where the Syrian protest started. In Daraa, a city in the south of Syria, which has a far lesser infrastructure then Damascus, where the majority of people are living below the poverty line.
Thus internet access, in most likelihood, is not such a common as widely believed. Sending a private fax from the central post office in Damascus requires the sender to leave a photocopy of the Fax with the authorities in order to control the content. Internet was only introduced in Syria around 2002 and mobile phone services even later.
Thursday, 14 July 2011
GOODBYE OLD CONTINENT Part 1
EUROPE HAS REACHED ITS ZENITH
Europe, the once striving continent everyone admired for its cultural heritage, economic prosperity, high living standards and social welfare system, seems to have reached its zenith and now faces the abyss, if it refuses to tackle some of the core problems that engulf the continent.
1. DECLINING AND AGING POPULATION
Most Central European countries are confronted with a declining population due to low birthrates and resisting migration. Despite this fact and the consequences of current immigration policies looming over the continent, populist governments refuse to promote immigration for fear of losing votes from the older generations who are the majority voters in the industrial world and who fear immigration most.
This old generation is weary of changes and feels threatened by migration and foreign influence. There is a growing hostility to anything foreign in Europe.
If Europe continues with this policy, countries such as Austria and Germany will become a large “old people’s home” for the poor. Without immigration Europe will not be able to sustain its social welfare state and economic growth will plunge even deeper. Growth will eventually halt and subsequently government revenues will stagnate, just when governments need them most, thus jeopardizing exactly these conditions, Europeans cherish most: social security, welfare system, health systems as well as a high living standard.
2. RIGHT VERSUS LEFT
Where as in South America, which most of the industrial world severely underestimates, there is a political center left move and growing economy, Europe moves in the opposite direction. Most of Central Europe no has center right governments and a stagnating economic growth rate. The right plays with the fear of the common man regarding immigration and the subsequent loss of national identity etc. The left on the other hand promote ideas and ideologies that are out of context in the current political and economic situation.
Still to come:
- DISINTEGRATION VERSUS INTEGRATION
- LOOMING GENERATION CONFLICT - OLD VERSUS YOUNG
- PENSION SYSTEM
- EUROPE’S DECLINING EDUCATION STANDARD AND LACK OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
Saturday, 16 July 2011
GOODBYE OLD CONTINENT Part 2
NON EXISTING MULTICULTURAL AWARENESS
Lack of multicultural awareness and the unwillingness of center right politicians to promote immigration cause a negative chain reaction which in the long run will have devastating consequences for Europe as an entity.
In this day and age to isolate one from multicultural influences is something no county can afford, nevertheless Europe is doing exactly that, thanks to the growing ultra conservative political movements that currently are sweeping across Europe.
The signs are not looking promising. Ultra nationalistic and conservative politics foster hate and limit visionary thinking. Right governments and political movements use the aging generation’s fear of foreign “invasions” in their live, in order to achieve their objectives, which are to isolate themselves and their countries. Increasing hostility towards immigrants and foreign visitors in Europe is on the increase. Multicultural awareness among the young and old generation in Central Europe is almost none existent. Prejudice is ever present. German speaking countries in Europe generally look down upon Mediterranean people, considering them as lazy and corrupt and thus regard themselves superior. Southern European countries on the other hand look at the northern Europe as being arrogant who lack empathy.
If common people of the European Union lack multicultural awareness, one cannot expect politicians in Brussels to have a broader vision. Europe’s diversity in cultures is also its subsequent downfall as a continent.
RIGHT VERSUS LEFT (edited version)
Where as in South America, which most of the industrial world severely underestimates, there is a political center left move and growing economy, Europe moves in the opposite direction. Most of Central Europe now has center right governments and a stagnating economic growth rate. The right plays with the fear of the common man regarding immigration and the subsequent loss of national identity jobs etc. The European left on the other hand promotes ideas and ideologies that are out of context in the current political and economic situation.
With a dangerous shift to the right, Europe also faces the dilemma on disintegration versus integration of immigrants. Foreigners are simply not welcome and more. Countries such as Austria implemented one of the harshest immigration policies in Europe, thus exposing itself to the dilemma of loosing qualified and experienced workforce needed to fill the void in certain industry sectors. In recent past Germany was short of 10 000 engineers but refused to facilitate immigration policies in order to permit Asian workforce to fill the void.
No comments:
Post a Comment