HOSTILE TAKEOVER

LOOMING ENERGY TSUNAMI IN EURASIA?

RECENT AEGEAN OIL AND GAS FINDINGS COULD BLOT OUT GREECE’S ENTIRE DEPT 

Since the beginning of the financial crisis in GREECE the country has faced some rather unorthodox political developments. One of them, shaking the “cradle of democracy” rather fiercely when a technocrat and footman of International Financial Institutions in particular Goldman Sachs, LUCAS PAPADEMOS seized control over the country with the pretence of new democratic election calls in 2013. Then, midst fierce financial rescue negotiations with the EU, GREECE apparently hit the “jackpot” when recent EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN oil and gas findings stretched further into the AEGEAN SEAS, revealing that the entire eastern MEDITERRANEAN is swimming in huge untapped oil and gas reserves. According to recent researches, the new-found reserves could potentially blot out GREECE’S entire debt, and possibly have even averted it.

EU’S RACE FOR NATURAL RESOURCES

The minute the potential gas and oil findings in the AEGEAN SEA were confirmed, GERMANY, EUROPE’S key player, in particular changed its political rhetoric’s towards GREECE, demanding that a EUROPEAN ‘commission of experts’ should permanently settled in ATHENS in order to overseeing GREEK finances and budgetary discipline and that the EU should be given veto power over tax and spend plans', a move that basically would undermine GREECE’S sovereignty.

In view of these facts it seems that EU’S key players are ready to push GREECE into the abbeys in exchange for total control of its natural resources. When looking at the numbers of recent oil gas findings one will understand why suddenly large “storm clouds” are looming over GREECE and the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA:

OIL: Preliminary estimates now are that total offshore oil in GREEK waters exceeds 22 billion barrels in the IONIAN SEA off WESTERN GREECE and some 4 billion barrels in the NORTHERN AEGEAN SEA. 

GAS: Recent natural gas surveys conducted in the area will generate an estimate of some nine trillion dollars in revenues, which would transform the finances of GREECE and the entire region.

Oil traders and experts estimate that GREECE could potentially solve its entire public debt crisis through development of its new-found gas and oil. Conservative estimates indicate that exploitation of the reserves already discovered could bring the country more than €302 billion over 25 years.

THE AUSTERITY PLOT 

The GREEK government instead has just been forced to agree to huge government layoffs, wage cuts and pension cuts to get access to EU and IMF loans that will only drive the country deeper into an economic decline.

IMF AND GERMANY DEMAND SELL-OFF OF GREECE’S STATE OIL COMPANIES!!! 

The IMF and EU governments, in particularly GERMANY, demand that GREECE sell off its valuable ports and public companies, among them of course, GREEK STATE OIL companies, to reduce state debt. Under the best of conditions the asset selloffs would bring the country perhaps €50 billion. Furthermore plans call for the GREEK state-owned natural gas company, DEPA, to privatize 65% of its shares to reduce debt.  Buyers would likely come from outside the country, as few GREEK companies are in a position in the crisis to take it.

In principal this reflects common IMF strategy; used in ARGENTINA and resulted in the countries default. ARGENTINES state assets were privatized and bought by US and European corporations with close ties to the IMF.

(See Argentine Water http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_privatization_in_Argentina )

WHO WILL CONTROL AND ULTIMATELY BENEFIT FROM THE HUGE RESOURCE DISCOVERIES?

One significant problem, aside from the fact the IMF demands GREECE selloff its public oil interests, is the fact that GREECE has not declared a deeper exclusive economic zone like most other countries which drill for oil. There was seen little need until now. An EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE (EEZ) gives states special mineral rights in its declared waters under the THIRD UNITED NATIONS CONVENTION on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which came into force in November 1994. (See http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/eastern-mediterranean-sea.html EEZ http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/normal-0-false-false-false-en-us-x-none_14.html )

Greece’s EEZ issue thus could trigger a new conflict with TURKEY which already is at odds with almost every country bordering the MEDITERRANEAN SEA for it fears of losing the prospect of becoming a major regional energy hub which would increase its geo – political influence in the region and make it a key player in future energy deals, thus eliminating certain “dependence” on EUROPE and last but not least abolish EU membership talks and at the same time pursue its NEO –OTTOMAN EMPIRE ambitions.

(See: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/06/does-turkey-really-need-eu.html )

(See http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/energy-games-in-eastern-mediterranean.html)

TURKEY reiterated that it would consider it an act of war if GREECE drilled further into the AEGEAN. Until now that did not seem to have serious economic consequences, as no oil or gas reserves were known. With these findings however the situation changed significantly. GREECE could cover “50% of its needs with the oil to be found in offshore fields in the AEGEAN SEA.

POISONOUS COCKTAIL 

To add another ingredient to the already poisoned cocktail is that the US also wants a share of the cake and thus is becoming increasingly nervous and manipulative when it comes to natural resources dealings in the region, which the USA considers its turf in the first place.

Thus it comes as no surprise that in July 2011 WASHINGTON seriously stepped in to join the GREEK energy game. Secretary of State HILLARY CLINTON flew to ATHENS with energy on her mind. That was clear by the fact she brought with her her Special Envoy for EURASIAN ENERGY, Richard Morningstar. MORNINGSTAR was husband BILL CLINTON’S SPECIAL ADVISOR to the President on CASPIAN BASIN ENERGY DIPLOMACY. 

Allegedly MORNINGSTAR has been the key WASHINGTON architects of WASHINGTON’S geopolitically-motivated oil and gas pipeline projects that would isolate RUSSIA and its GAZPROM gas resources from the EU. MORNINGSTAR and his aid are open opponents of RUSSIAN GAZPROM’S SOUTH STREAM gas pipeline that would transit the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN states. It seems that the current Administration is not at all neutral about the New Greek oil and gas discoveries, for three days after Hillary left ATHENS the GREEK government proposed the creation of a new government agency to run tenders for oil and gas surveys and ultimate drilling bids. 

US OUTWITS THE EU 

Allegedly Morningstar was instrumental in backing the controversial B-T-C oil pipeline from BAKU through TBILISI in GEORGIA across to the TURKISH MEDITERRANEAN port of CEYHAN, a costly enterprise designed solely to bypass RUSSIAN oil pipeline transit. He has openly proposed that GREECE and TURKEY drop all historic differences over CYPRUS, over numerous other historic issues and agree to jointly pool all their oil and gas reserves in the AEGEAN SEA. He also has told the GREEK government it should forget cooperation with MOSCOW on the SOUTH STREAM and BOURGAS-ALEXANDROUPOLIS gas pipeline projects. (See http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/middle-east-energy-wars.html and http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/russia-seeks-to-play-a-leading-role-in-eastern-mediterranean-gas-development-5216 ) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burgas%E2%80%93Alexandroupoli_pipeline

 

Such proposal clearly shows that he lacks profound knowledge of the regional conflict between CYPRUS and TURKEY as well as GREECE’S stance on TURKEY and last but not least RUSSIA’S and CYPRUS’S relations and mentality of these cultures.

According to a report from GREEK political analyst Aristotle Vassilakis published in July 2011, WASHINGTON’S motive for pushing GREECE to join forces with TURKEY on oil and gas is to force a formula to divide resulting oil and gas revenues. 

According to his report, WASHINGTON proposes that GREECE get 20% of revenues, TURKEY another 20% and the US-backed NOBLE ENERGY Company of HOUSTON TEXAS, the company successfully drilling in the ISRAELI and GREEK offshore waters, would get the lion’s share of 60%. Among other issues it seems obvious that the EU, with all means, wants to achieve a “hostile takeover” of GREECE in order to stop US advances in the region. Worthwhile to mention is that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s husband, Bill, is a Washington lobbyist for NOBLE ENERGY. Thus the circle starts to close.

CYPRUS, TURKEY, ISRAEL, LEBANON, SYRIA AND NOW ROMANIA

As if these geopolitical complications were not enough, NOBLE ENERGY has also discovered huge volumes of gas off the waters of the REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS. In December 2011 NOBLE announced a successful well offshore CYPRUS in a field estimated to hold at least 7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. According to NOBLE ENERGY the latest discovery in CYPRUS further highlight the quality and significance of this world-class basin.

CYPRUS is a complicated piece of real estate. In the 1970’s as declassified US Government documents recently revealed, then-US Secretary of State HENRY KISSINGER actively encouraged and facilitated arms to the TURKISH regime of KISSINGER’S former Harvard student and then- Prime Minister BULENT ECEVIT, to stage a military invasion of CYPRUS in 1974, in effect partitioning the island between an ethnically TURKISH north and an ethnically GREEK REPUBLIC of CYPRUS in the south, a division which remains. The KISSINGER strategy, backed by the BRITISH was believed intended to create a pretext for a permanent US and BRITISH military listening post in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN during the Cold War. (See http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/eastern-mediterranean-sea.html )

Today the ethnically GREEK south, where NOBLE has discovered large gas deposits, is a member of the EU. Its President, DEMETRIS CHRISTOFIAS, is the only national leader in the EUROPEAN UNION who is a communist. He is also a close friend of ISRAEL, and of RUSSIA. In addition, he is a major critic of AMERICAN foreign policy, as well as of TURKEY. Thus CYPRUS is financially heavily supported by RUSSIA for RUSSIA holds a large amount of off shore accounts on the islands banks and provided CYPRUS a “bailout” credit to avoid default. See: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/655a3fd2-de31-11e0-9fb7-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1pOl6qaog and http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/eastern-mediterranean-sea.html

 

Now ISRAEL is planning to build an underwater gas pipeline from the ISRAELI LEVANTINE fields across CYPRUS waters onto the GREEK mainland where it would be sold on the EU market. The CYPRUS and ISRAEL governments have mutually agreed on delimitation of their respective ECONOMIC ZONES, leaving TURKEY in the cold. TURKEY openly threatened CYPRUS for signing the agreement with NOBLE ENERGY. That led to a RUSSIAN statement that it would not tolerate TURKISH threats against CYPRUS, further complicating TURKISH-RUSSIAN relations. 

TURKISH-ISRAELI relations, once quite friendly, have become increasingly strained in recent years under ERDOGAN foreign policies. ANKARA has expressed concern about ISRAEL’S recent ties with its historic antagonists, GREECE and the GREEK side of CYPRUS. TURKEY’S ally the “TURKISH REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN CYPRUS” (not a internationally recognized entity), fears it could miss out on its fair share of the gas after ISRAEL and NICOSIA signed an agreement to divide the 250 kilometers of sea that separate them.

It becomes evident, especially when we glance at a map of the eastern Mediterranean, that the oil and gas prospective bonanza there is a rapidly unfolding conflict zone of tectonic magnitude involving strategic US, RUSSIAN, EU, ISRAELI and TURKISH, SYRIAN and LEBANESE interests. (See TAPA pipeline http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html )

Parts of above article incorporate F. WILLIAM ENGDAHL article : Rising energy tensions in the Aegean—Greece, Turkey, Cyprus

ROMANIA, THE LATEST TO JOIN THE RECENT ENERGY HYPE   

By Dr Robert M Cutler (http://www.robertcutler.org),

With all its complexity mentioned above, ROMANIA joining the energy hype in the region and one can assume that the latest BLACK SEA offshore sector gas findings will have potential ramifications for the entire EURO-CASPIAN energy complex from CENTRAL ASIA to CENTRAL EUROPE. This find will re-jig calculations around the EUROPEAN UNION'S SOUTHERN GAS CORRIDOR while providing potential new sources of energy for EAST CENTRAL and especially SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE.

In that context, the potential for ROMANIA to become a natural gas exporter to SOUTHEASTERN and even EAST CENTRAL EUROPE comes into focus. The significance of the ROMANIAN strike concerns the eventual choice by the consortium developing AZERBAIJAN'S offshore SHAH DENIZ natural gas deposit, between the "western" (through GREECE to ITALY) route for its 10 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y) gas and the "northern" (through BULGARIA to SOUTHEASTERN Europe) route. Interesting to note in this context is the fact that ISRAEL and AZERBAIJAN hold strong economic ties with emphasis on energy related projects as well as defense.See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan%E2%80%93Israel_relations and http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/west-asia-africa/32445-israel-inks-arms-deal-azerbejain-azerbaijan-iran-relations-detoriate.html

THE PLAYERS: US EXXON, AUSTRIA’S OMV ( PETROM), BULGARIA’S BULGARTRANSGAZ

ROMANIAN President TRAIAN BASESCU announced last week that a consortium comprising the US major EXXON MOBIL and the ROMANIAN company PETROM (a subsidiary of the AUSTRIAN OMV) has struck over 100 bcm of gas in ROMANIA'S first deep-water offshore exploration. He said this figure was subject to revision upwards, since there were five other geological formations in the area with characteristics similar to the successful find. If they all proved out the same way, the result would give ROMANIA over a half a trillion cubic meters of offshore natural gas - equivalent to 25-30 years of total ROMANIAN gas consumption at the present rate, or 75-90 years worth of its gas imports.

Separately in BULGARIA a week ago it was announced that, in conformance with a February 2011 decision by the EU's EUROPEAN COUNCIL that every EU member state should have at least two sources of natural gas and electricity, the BULGARIAN company BULGARTRANSGAZ will cooperate to build the transborder Interconnector BULGARIA-ROMANIA (IBR). BULGARIA imports most of its gas from RUSSIA, which cut off supplies for three weeks in January 2009 and is thought to be maneuvering within the BULGARIAN political environment to maintain its hegemonic position in the BULGARIAN gas market.

CHEVRON AND NOVINITE

Thus while according to the BULGARIAN press agency NOVINITE the US company CHEVRON will soon start drilling for shale gas in the northeastern ROMANIA around BARLAD, the BULGARIAN cabinet recently made it impossible for CHEVRON to develop shale gas in BULGARIA by revoking an earlier awarded permit for hydraulic fracturing ("fracking"). BULGARIAN environmental activists are now seeking legislation to make that ban permanent.

In response, an organization called Movement for Energy Independence (DEN) has formed in BULGARIA calling for the fracking moratorium to be cancelled and for the until now dilatory work on all interconnectors to be accelerated, including the ITB, the IBR, and also the INTERCONNECTOR GREECE-BULGARIA (IGB).

DEN also criticizes the current government for enforcing BULGARIA'S gas dependence upon RUSSIA by favoring the MOSCOW-based SOUTH STREAM GAS PIPELINE PROJECT (MOSCOW to BULGARIA under the BLACK SEA) and seeking to help exempt GAZPROM from oncoming EU antitrust rules by accelerating the pipeline's timetable.

The IBR, on the other hand, if constructed to be bi directionally reversible, would make it possible not only for BULGARIA to import ROMANIAN gas directly from ROMANIA, but also to transit to ROMANIA the gas that BULGARIA might receive from AZERBAIJAN'S offshore SHAH DENIZ deposit via GEORGIA, TURKEY, and the Interconnector TURKEY-BULGARIA (ITB) still under construction.

COMPLEX ENERGY PUZZLE IN AN EVEN MORE COMPLEX REGION

 

An Interconnector TURKEY-GREECE (ITG) is already operating, but the SHAH DENIZ consortium has ruled out its extension into the Interconnector TURKEY-GREECE-ITALY (ITGI) to SOUTHERN EUROPE via the Interconnector GREECE-ITALY (IGI) across GREECE and under the IONIAN SEA to ITALY'S geographical boot. (The undersea segment by itself is called the Poseidon pipeline.)

However, this does not mean that the SHAH DENIZ consortium has ruled out either the ITG or the separate Interconnector TURKEY-BULGARIA (ITB), should it choose a northern rather than a western route for its gas. Given the newly announced interconnector between BULGARIA and ROMANIA, either the ITG-IGB duo or the ITB by itself would be able to hook up into ROMANIAN national pipeline system via the IBR.
The SHAH DENIZ consortium has yet to choose between the BP-proposed South East European Pipeline (SEEP) or a reconfiguration of the NABUCCO pipeline project for the possible northern route. After choosing one of those, it will then choose between it and the designated western-route pipeline, the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which is set to cross GREECE, ALBANIA, and go underneath the ADRIATIC SEA to ITALY'S boot.

Indeed, earlier this week, the BULGARIAN cabinet approved the agreement between the BULGARIAN company NABUCCO Gas Pipeline BULGARIA and the international consortium NABUCCO Gas Pipeline International, signed in June 2011. The next step is for the BULGARIAN Parliament to ratify the contract, following which the stages for implementation of the NABUCCO project in BULGARIA may be further specified.
However, none of this means that the ITGI or the IGI is dead. As a consequence of the debt crisis in GREECE, the GREEK principal in the IGI consortium, the public gas company DEPA, is a candidate for privatization; and RUSSIA'S GAZPROM has shown an interest.
The possibility of the IGI segment transiting gas later in the decade from MOSCOW'S SOUTH STREAM natural gas pipeline has been discussed in the GREEK press now for some time. Sourcing problems, however, continue to plague the SOUTH STREAM project; RUSSIA has never said where any of its gas will come from.