SYRIA

Syrian MIG 29

US INTELLIGENCE: ASSAD FIRMLY IN CHARGE IN SYRIA

One year after the unrest in SYRIA started President BASHAR ASSAD is still firmly in control of his country, US intelligence services say, despite their leaders claiming his regime is doomed.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, three US senior intelligence officials have said ASSAD holds a strong position in SYRIA and his inner circle is also very determined to back the cause and remain "steadfast," AP reports.

LACK OF UNITY AMONG OPPOSITION GROUPS VERSUS WELL EQUIPPED GOVERNMENT FORCES

Syrian Tanks in action

Intelligence officers noted that the disorganized SYRIAN opposition is providing little challenge to the regime and that the political leaders of the SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL do not work as a team and often fight among themselves.

Meanwhile, government forces are very well equipped, US intelligence experts assert. They describe SYRIA as a formidable military power, with some 330,000 soldiers on active duty, surveillance drones and a dense network of air-defense installations that would make it difficult to establish a no-fly zone.

“That leadership is going to fight very hard,” said one of them.

According to the experts, ASSAD and his inner circle believe that the unrest is being driven by external forces and their army is sufficiently well equipped to withstand anything but a large-scale military intervention.

CONFLICT MAY LAST SEVERAL MORE MONTHS IF NOT LONGER

Syrian Missile Launcher

While the statement did not speak directly about the timeline of the conflict, it made an impression that the conflict may last several more months if not longer.

The assessment comes with many senior US officials predicting the end of the ASSAD regime in the very near future. US President BARACK OBAMA recently said that ASSAD’S fall is a matter of time.

US Secretary of State HILLARY CLINTON has also repeatedly stated that the regime’s days are numbered and Assad cannot hold on to power in the long term.

The US defense secretary, Leon Panetta, has claimed that sanctions and diplomatic pressure are already “having a significant impact on Assad” and are weakening his regime. ISRAEL has also predicted that the end is near for ASSAD.

GENERAL COMMENT AND BACKGROUND INFO:

It still raises the question as to why Israel suddenly supports a regime change in Syria after following a decade long safety doctrine that favored the predictable Assad regime over an unpredictable Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition fractions. Israel’s eastern frontier has been the most stable one for more than two decades despite the fact that the two countries are technically still at war. 

Worthwhile to recall is also the fact that during the 6 day war Israel’s ground forces could have advanced beyond the Golan Heights and entered Damascus, but refrained from doing so because the Geo political implications of such move would have most probably triggered a civil war and ultimately destabilized the region even further. This move, indirectly, helped Hafez al ASSAD and his clan to seize power in Syria and establish a “hate doctrine” against Israel, the paradox of which helped to create the most stable frontier between the two arch enemies. So why all of a sudden Israel is prepared to scrap this decade long success formula in exchange for a in-stable future in Syria  is beyond logic reasoning, unless Israel has been promised enormous  Geo - strategic, economic and political advantages.ould justify such move.