STRATEGIC FALLOUT FROM GAZA:

IS IT TIME FOR ACTIVE DETERRENCE?

By Anthony Rusonik via Geopoliticalmonitor 

For those interested enough to dive deeper- beyond the tweets, the public relations campaigns, and the moral indignation that muddies the waters of clear analysis- there  are some lessons to be learned from the most recent round in the ISRAEL-Gaza  conflict.

The first lesson, of course, is that this is indeed just the most recent round. The ceasefire  is sure to be inconclusive and no political impasse will be broken.

On the diplomatic level, Hamas remains in power, continues to reject ISRAEL’S right to exist, and retains significant –albeit not unlimited—support within the ARAB world, TURKEY and IRAN.  Regional dynamics are unchanged. International dynamics are unchanged, with the US and other Western powers committed to unenthusiastic but consistent expressions of ISRAEL’S right to self-defense. ISRAEL itself remains unchanged in its approach to the Palestinian question. 

At the simplest level, Jerusalem is eager to restore the status quo ante: no Gaza rockets, no ISRAELI retaliation. Questions of a greater détente with Gaza that might lead to an easing of the blockade are seldom raised, as Hamas rejectionism seems to make such considerations impossible from Jerusalem’s point-of-view.

Background Information: See: Who is really besieging Gaza? http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/11/israel-and-gaza.html

WEST BANK PALESTINIANS, ALTHOUGH AGGRIEVED, DID NOT ENGAGE

If there are political notes to taken from this, then the first point of interest is that the West Bank Palestinians, although aggrieved, did not engage.  A second point is that Egypt is still the foundation for a stable Middle East. Despite his Muslim Brotherhood associations and the anti-Western and anti-ISRAEL sentiment of his people, President Morsi remains a clear-headed and pragmatic statesman for EGYPT. Both Hamas and ISRAEL turned to Morsi to broker a cease-fire, and EGYPT remains the sole party with influence on both combatants. TURKEY’S reckless rhetoric, on the other hand, put Prime Minister Erdogan on the outside, even though the TURKS and the ISRAELIS–despite Ravi Marmara– have natural shared interests in both a stable Gaza and, of course, containment of the conflict in SYRIA.

GREATER DIVIDE BETWEEN HAMAS AND FATAH?

So, again, there is little reason to expect significant political or diplomatic change from the current conflict.  In the interim, at most we may see a greater divide between Hamas and Fatah, where the latter is determined to pursue its UN bid for Palestinian statehood, while the former wants no part of the recognition this would bestow upon ISRAEL. In turn, ISRAEL may at most offer a state with provisional borders, a move it had pondered even before the current round of hostilities.

VICTORY FOR ISRAEL ON A FRONT THAT MAY PROVE DECISIVE- AND DETERMINE FUTURE STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS- BY ISRAEL

Despite all appearances of continued political deadlock, however, the present conflict is nonetheless a watershed. It represents a victory for ISRAEL on a front that may prove decisive- and determine future strategic directions- if the ISRAELIS opt to pursue it. This is of course the fact that the Iron Dome anti-missile system exceeded all expectations.  

ISRAEL’S AIR FORCE, THE KEY TO POLITICAL SUCCESS? 

The six batteries deployed by the Air Force wing of the IDF (it is of some note perhaps that ground forces do not operate the systems) have scored a 90% success rate.   This is impressive not just because of the short distance and limited interception window for the Raphael systems, but also because of the electronic brains of the unit that allow it to predict whether a missile is headed for a population centre or an empty field, in which case the system allows it to fall and saves the ammunition ($40,000 a shot) for the next attack.

This tactical success has enormous strategic and thus diplomatic potential for ISRAEL in particular and for modern warfare in general. This saves ISRAEL battlefield casualties, reduces the prospect of innocent civilian deaths in Gaza as a result and, therefore, ensures that ISRAEL’S precarious diplomatic position is not further eroded.

IRON DOME SUCCESS: THE INITIATOR FOR IDF STRATEGIC AND DOCTRINAL SHIFT?

This is just the immediate tactical benefit to ISRAEL. As argued in Haaretz (March 2011, February 2012) and Geopolitical Monitor (August 2012), Iron Dome is just the tactical piece in a comprehensive anti-ballistic missile blanket that offers ISRAEL the potential for a complete strategic and doctrinal shift from its traditional emphasis on pre-emption and air power to an “active deterrent” posture that befits a more established state and superior military vexed by diplomatic isolation.

From the inception of the state in 1948 through the 1967 Six-Day-War and the 1973 Yom Kippur conflict, ISRAELI DEFENSE FORCE doctrine has trumpeted preemption as the means to reduce the disadvantage of the country’s small geographical size and leverage its superior air force.  ISRAEL’S defense establishment again argued for preemption in 1973, but was overruled by a political echelon that chose passive deterrence to win diplomatic favor with the UNITED STATES.  The cost to absorb the first blows from EGYPT and SYRIA was high for ISRAEL. The scale of initial losses led the cabinet to hint at a nuclear response that triggered an AMERICAN airlift of material and diplomatic engagement.

The failure of “The Concept” in 1973 renewed ISRAEL’S determination to take the battle to the enemy’s home front and still prevails in ISRAELI military doctrine, rooted in the national psyche.

Route taken by IAF during 1981 Iraqi Nuclear Reactor attack

Hence, ISRAEL’S determination to hit IRAN before it acquires nuclear weapons. Hence, ISRAEL’S focus on F-35 fighter jets, bunker-buster bombs, aerial re-fueling capabilities, and frustrated attempts to gain tacit SAUDI or TURKISH approval for aerial attack routes.

Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: Worthwhile to mention is that SAUDI ARABIA and ISRAEL, though not officially, do foster economic as well as political ties which are utilized when deemed necessary for either strategic or economic reasons. One example is the use of SAUDI airspace during the raid on IRAQ’S Nuclear reactor in 1981. Furthermore, in the unlikely event of a preemptive strike on IRAN, TURKEY would most probably heed to US demand, granting ISRAELI jets to transition TURKISH airspace.

Background Information: See also: War Strategies: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/israel-azerbaijan-and-kazakhstan_6.html and

For better or worst  

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html

and

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/02/08/the_saudi_israeli_handshake

Even if ISRAEL succeeds at enormous financial cost with the prospect of heavy losses of its best pilots, the setback to IRAN’S program will be short-term at best. IRANIAN retaliation, perhaps supported by Hezbollah and even yet again Hamas, seems a realistic prospect. Diplomatic isolation is complete in this scenario.

Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring, on many occasions has stated that ISRAEL’S “determination” to strike IRAN is nothing more than tactics in order to obtain negotiation leverage over the USA on future weapons deals and geo strategic as well as geo political concessions. ISRAEL never has or will seriously consider conducting a preemptive strike on IRAN. All propaganda rhetoric’s by ISRAELI politicians, regarding such strike are cleverly designed to maintain the upper hand on Geo political strategies in the region.

Background Information: See: Airstrike unlikely http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/israel-iran-syria.html

RESTRUCTURE ITS STRATEGIC DOCTRINE, ALLOWING THE COUNTRY’S LEADERS TO BETTER PROTECT THE HOME FRONT BY REDUCING THE IMPERATIVE FOR PREEMPTION…………..

Yet, this grim path is not inevitable.  Iron Dome is just the tactical layer of a comprehensive anti-ballistic defense system that is in fact premised on the Arrow-II program.  Developed in earnest after US Patriot systems provided  some protection from Saddam Hussein’s SCUDs in 1991, the Arrow system is designed to counter long-range threats posed by the Shahab missiles IRAN has developed with NORTH KOREAN support to replace the older SCUD technology.  David’s Sling is ISRAEL’S middle-tier ABM, designed to intercept mid-range projectiles form Hezbollah.

Supported by ISRAEL’S own nuclear weapon arsenal, advanced Jericho delivery systems,  and assured second-strike capabilities provided by Dolphin  class submarines,  ISRAEL’S anti-ballistic systems add up to the potential for a powerful “active” deterrent.

It is reasonable to consider that should ISRAEL restructure its strategic doctrine to leverage and prioritize its impressive ABM investments that the country’s leaders could better protect the home front, reduce the imperative for preemption, and thus provide ISRAEL with better regional and international diplomatic options as befits a more established state.

LEANER, BUT MORE ELITE IDF CORE

 

As with other WESTERN militaries, the country could then focus on a leaner yet more elite core of personnel and materiel, as opposed to the burden of reliance on reserves.  A few squadrons of F-35s configured for air defense, supported by ground forces and a navy re-positioned for equivalent roles might better prepare ISRAEL for the threats the states now faces  and in the diplomatic context in which it must maneuver.

Background Information: See Long-range, largely clandestine and multi-service missions http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/idf-israeli-defense-forces.html

There is no doubt that, if little else is gained by either party in the present conflict between ISRAEL and Gaza, that the ISRAELIS have scored a dramatic victory on the battlefield with Iron Dome. The full potential of such a victory is at hand if the country’s statesmen and defense establishment can evolve the old doctrine– once so successful and now of dubious benefit– and embrace a new approach.