TURKEY IS ATTEMPTING TO MIRROR ITS RISING ECONOMIC INFLUENCE
IN THE REALM OF FOREIGN POLICY
Unlike his predecessors, Turkish
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken on a much more robust and
aggressive foreign policy with the country's neighbors. From supporting the
Arab Spring movement to spearheading negotiations over IRAN'S nuclear program
and supporting the SYRIAN opposition in its uprising against the Assad regime,
Ankara is attempting to mirror its rising economic influence RELATED BACKGROUND INFORMATION: TURKEY GROWS FASTER THAN EUROZONE'S MAJOR ECONOMIES at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/04/turkey.html
) in the realm of foreign policy. But
what are the implications of such a dramatic shift away from the "Good
Neighbor" policy that has served TURKEY so well for decades?
THE IMPLICATIONS OF TURKEY’S TOUGH NEW FOREIGN POLICY
Since Erdogan has taken office, TURKISH
foreign policy has become decidedly less passive and noninterventionist. The
Prime Minister lashed out at ISRAELI President Shimon Peres in 2009 over what
he believed was excessive force used by the ISRAELIS against the Palestinians;
tensions continued to rise during the flotilla crisis the next year. More
recently, Erdogan referred to Zionism as a "crime against humanity"
during a speech to the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations in Vienna.
RELATED BACKGROUND INFORMATION:
TURKEYS ERRATIC FOREIGN POLICIES at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html
and
and
TURKEY WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO THE RESOLUTION OF THE SYRIAN CRISIS IF IT COULD
BRING ITSELF TO RISE ABOVE THE SECTARIAN CONSIDERATIONS THAT HAVE DICTATED ITS
REGIME CHANGE POLICY IN SYRIA at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-syrian-policies.html
With regards to SYRIA, what were
once thawing relations between the two countries early in Erdogan's term have
frosted over considerably since the SYRIAN uprising, with rumors circulating
that the TURKS are supplying arms to the rebels. What is known for certain is
that the TURKISH government has set up camps for refugees and has offered
humanitarian support as well.
RELATED BACKGROUND INFORMATION: DRAWING
SYMPATHY FROM ARAB COUNTRIES at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/turkeys-middle-east-chess-game.html
Generally speaking TURKEY has in
recent years recalibrated its Middle East policy to reflect that of the United
States. However, where they have differed recently is over IRAN; TURKEY has
taken an active role in talks over IRAN'S nuclear program and has stressed the
need for diplomacy, as opposed to the more bellicose calls emanating from
Washington. Part of this use of soft power stems from the fact that TURKEY has
important trade ties with IRAN and clearly would not want to jeopardize that
through siding with the UNITED STATES and the EUROPEAN UNION.
THE KURDISH EQUATION
The new foreign policy strategy
stems from Erdogan's desire for TURKEY to become a larger influence in the region.
For years TURKEY has wanted to join the EUROPEAN UNION despite strong
opposition both at home and in certain corners of EUROPE. However, meddling in
the affairs of its neighboring countries could have a negative impact, a
consequence currently developing with regards to TURKEY'S actions in SYRIA.
Considering the secular nature of
the Assad regime, religious and ethnic minorities such as the KURDS tended to
side with the government since the state offered the best chance of protection
from persecution by the Sunni majority. Anything that undermines the safety of KURDS
does not sit well with the PKK, and in the past months there have been reports
of PKK attacks in TURKEY'S southeast.
RELATED BACKGROUND INFORMATION:
TURKEY’S DREAMS, OF BEING ENERGY HUB STRENGTHENED BY PKK
NEGOTIATIONS? at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/turkey-and-kurds.html
and
THE KURDISH EQUATION at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/libya-syria.html
This poses a significant problem as
PKK attacks had lessened in the past few years. Is destabilizing a neighboring
country really in the interest of TURKEY, especially if it reignites conflict
with the KURDISH population? Or does the idea of TURKEY establishing itself as
a regional power override domestic security concerns? Erdogan's popularity
stemmed from the booming TURKISH economy, which gave him the maneuverability to
"reset" TURKISH foreign policy. Polls suggest that Erdogan's support
of the SYRIAN uprising has eroded support for him and his Freedom and Justice
Party (AKP), a significant worry with the next elections only a year away.
GOING BACK TO TURKEY'S NEUTRAL STANCE MAY BE THE BEST WAY TO
GO FROM A POLITICAL STANDPOINT
Tensions have risen even further
between SYRIA and TURKEY in light of SYRIAN rockets landing in TURKISH
territory and calls from Ankara asking Washington for Patriot missiles along
its border with SYRIA. On February 1st, the Revolutionary People's Liberation
Party–Front detonated a bomb outside the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, citing the TURKISH
government's support for the SYRIAN rebels as one of the reasons for the
attack.
If Erdogan wants the Presidency, as
some suggest he does, going back to TURKEY'S neutral stance may be the best way
to go from a political standpoint. It would also relieve tensions along the TURKEY-SYRIA
border, placate the PKK, and put the public's collective mind at ease.
Additionally, any sort of internal or external insecurity will do the TURKISH
economy no favors, especially if it means strained trade relations with IRAN, a
key ally of SYRIA (and their lone friend in the region).
ABANDONING THE "GOOD NEIGHBOR" POLICY that has seen TURKEY well throughout its existence has had
both positive and negative effects. It has caused Erdogan's stock to rise in
the West, and his diplomatic efforts regarding IRAN should be lauded. However,
its meddling in the SYRIAN uprising has revived tensions between Ankara and its
Kurdish population when relations between the two looked to be normalizing. The
TURKISH Foreign Ministers visit to IRAQI KURDISTAN and its recognition of its
regional government was seen as a major step forward in TURKISH-KURD relations.
Turkey miscalculated the
implications supporting the Free Syrian Army would have in regards to a
burgeoning refugee problem (current estimates put the number of refugees at
150,000 and rising) and rekindled PKK attacks in its southeast. Erdogan seems
to be hoping that the rebels will win and install a TURKISH-style democracy in SYRIA,
one that would be Sunni-dominated. All well and good for TURKEY to have a “like-minded
government” on its border, but if relations were improving under Assad, why
take a chance and support the opposition?
Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: It seems most unlikely that Erdogan really
believed that if the Free SYRIAN Army rebels win, they would install a TURKISH
style democracy. The more likely reason for his pivot against Assad was to synchronize
with the Sunni Arab alliance, (QATAR, SAUDI ARABIA and the rest of the GULF
STATES) focused on toppling Assad, in order to emerge as the key- regional player
by enforce a powerful Middle Eastern “Sunni crescent” that opposes the “Shiite
crescent” (IRAN, SYRIA, IRAQ etc.).
RELATED BACKGROUND INFORMATION:
SECTARIANISM - “SUNNI CRESCENT” at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html
and
and
THE MIDDLE EAST IS PERVADED AND INCREASINGLY INFECTED BY THE SECTARIAN
RIVALRY BETWEEN THE SHIITE PERSIANS AND THE WAHHABI SAUDIS, WHO ARE NOW
FIGHTING PROXY WARS ALL OVER THE REGION at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html
The AKP now has a dilemma on its
hands. Facing elections in 2014, the question remains whether Davutolu's and
Erdogan's foreign policy will see the AKP ousted from power, in spite of the
economic gains the country has made under them. Public opinion shows that the
majority of TURKS are uneasy with the more interventionist policies.
Nevertheless, Erdogan should keep pushing for a diplomatic solution in IRAN. A
war between IRAN, ISRAEL, and possibly the UNITED STATES would be disastrous
for the region as a whole, in addition to the economic damage it would cause TURKEY.
On the other hand, in order to hedge his and his party's bets, it would be wise
for Erdogan to scale back and let the situation in SYRIA play itself out. The
last thing Ankara needs is for the conflict to spill over into its territory.
By Frank Lopapa via Oilprice
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