THE FUTURE OF ARGENTINA

Cry for Me, Argentina

A nation still drugged by that quixotic political concoction called 

Peronism

Article adapted from Roger Cohen, with comments by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring

The heavy burden of populist history in one of the richest countries of the world.

A bon mot doing the rounds in post-commodities-boom South America is that Brazil is in the process of becoming Argentina, and Argentina is in the process of becoming Venezuela, and Venezuela is in the process of becoming Zimbabwe. That is a little harsh on Brazil and Venezuela.

Argentina, however, is a perverse case of its own. It is a nation still drugged by that quixotic political concoction called Peronism; engaged in all-out war on reliable economic data; tinkering with its multilevel exchange rate; shut out from global capital markets; trampling on property rights when it wishes; obsessed with a lost little war in the Falklands (Malvinas) more than three decades ago; and persuaded that the cause of all this failure lies with speculative powers seeking to force a proud nation — in the words of its leader — “to eat soup again, but this time with a fork.”

Comment on: Shut out from global capital markets:

ARGENTINA COULD HAVE DODGED THE CURRENT WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISIS DUE TO FAVORABLE INTERNAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS (AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES), IF TACKLED THE CORRECT WAY 

Most of the current difficulties however are homemade, for ARGENTINA is one of the worlds leading agriculture commodity exporter as well as developing the countries mining industry in order to extract its vast amount of natural resource. After defaulting the country paid back its entire dept with the IMF, however because of its pending dept with the “Paris Club” it has been expelled from international financial institutions, a move, which has proven not too much of a burden for the country, because demand for agriculture commodities kept rising and thus the country obtained sufficient revenues, despite being band obtaining international loans, thus permitting the country to conduct trade without needing to adhered to doctrines set by international financial institutions. 

See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring

THE GEOPOLITICS OF INTERNATIONAL MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SYSTEMS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/09/argentina-geopolitics-of-international.html

DEFYING INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-future-of-argentina.html

IMF AND ARGENTINA 

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2011/10/corporatocracy.html

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2011/08/imf-destroyer-of-nations.html

A century ago, Argentina was richer than Sweden, France, Austria and Italy. 

It was far richer than Japan. It held poor Brazil in contempt. Vast and empty, with the world’s richest top soil in the Pampas, it seemed to the European immigrants who flooded here to have all the potential of the United States (per capita income is now a third or less of the United States level). They did not know that a colonel called Juan Domingo Perón and his wife Eva (“Evita”) would shape an ethos of singular delusional power.

“Argentina is a unique case of a country that has completed the transition to underdevelopment,” said Javier Corrales, a political scientist at Amherst College.

Argentina is the child among nations that never grew up

In psychological terms — and Buenos Aires is packed with folks on couches pouring out their anguish to psychotherapists — Argentina is the child among nations that never grew up. Responsibility was not its thing. Why should it be? There was so much to be plundered, such riches in grain and livestock, that solid institutions and the rule of law — let alone a functioning tax system — seemed a waste of time.

Immigrants camped here with foreign passports rather than go through the nation-forming absorption that characterize Brazil or the United States. Argentina was far away at the bottom of the world, a beckoning fertile land mass distant enough from power centers to live its own peripheral fantasies or drown its sorrow in what is probably the world’s saddest (and most haunting) dance. 

Comment on: Argentina is the child among nations that never grew up

An Example: DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AUSTRALIA AND ARGENTINA, TWO COUNTRIES ROUGHLY THE SAME “AGE”!

Considering all these favorable circumstance (Agriculture commodity export, natural resource etc.), one obviously has to question why ARGENTINA, after 200 years of history has not evolved to first world status? Comparing AUSTRALIA with ARGENTINA, both of whom have 200 years of history, AUSTRALIA advanced to first world status, while ARGENTINA seems to stagnate despite the fact that the latter has better conditions for advancement. AUSTRALIA lacks far behind ARGENTINA in agricultural commodity exports, fertile land as well as natural resources. The majority of the land is desert, nevertheless, AUSTRALIA emerged as a first world country with a functioning social security system, infrastructure development etc. 

The Eco - political advance AUSTRALIA made during its 200 year history, in comparison to ARGENTINA becomes even more impressive when looking at its immigrant background, for most of AUSTRALIA’S first immigrants were convicts expelled to AUSTRALIA by the colonial power BRITAIN. Hardly a reputable immigrant force to reckon with. Nevertheless AUSTRALIA managed to emerge as a reputable and stable country. AUSTRALIA’S forefathers managed to evolve from outcast of society to reputable citizens. 

ARGENTINA’S main immigrant background was mostly ITALIAN. It took ITALY two world wars to curb in organize crime syndicates in order to emerge as a trustworthy, almost corruption free nation in Europe. See: Immigrant background:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Argentine

From extreme  left to  extreme right - Peronism, a political movement 

Then, to give expression to its uniqueness, Argentina invented its own political philosophy: a strange mishmash of nationalism, romanticism, fascism, socialism, backwardness, progressiveness, militarism, eroticism, fantasy, musical, mournfulness, irresponsibility and repression. The name it gave all this was Peronism. It has proved impossible to shake.

Perón, who discovered the political uplift a military officer could derive from forging links with the have-nots of Latin America and distributing cash (a lesson absorbed by Hugo Chávez), was deposed in the first of four postwar coups. Argentina  in the 1980s was just emerging from the trauma of military rule. For many the emblematic image of the continent is the uncontrollable sobbing of Argentine women clutching the photographs of beloved children who had been taken from them for “brief questioning” only to vanish. The region’s military juntas turned “disappear” into a transitive verb. It is what they did to deemed enemies — 30,000 of them in Argentina.

Since 1983, Argentina has ceased its military-civilian whiplash, tried some of the perpetrators of human rights crimes and been governed democratically. But for most of that time it has been run by Peronists, most recently Néstor Kirchner and his widow, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (shades of Perón’s widow Isabel), who have rediscovered redistribution after a Peronist flurry in the 1990s with neo-liberalism. Economic whiplash is alive and well. So are reckless spending in good times and lawless measures in bad. So, too, are mawkish evocations of Perón and Evita and Isabel: On earth as it is in the heavens.

Comment on: Peronist fantasies 

CORRUPTION AND ORGANIZED CRIME SYNDICATES 

Corruption and organized crime is a worldwide phenomena, however certain countries are more vulnerable than others, especially when a country such as ARGENTINA has experienced little less than 30 years of democracy. Being suppressed for generations reflects on society. A society experiencing sudden freedom and democracy after years of suppression is likely to venture out too its limits in order to see how far it can go, without the fear of repercussions. 

Background Information:   

Crime and corruption are two of the world's largest multinational industries

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/crime-corruption-and-political-system.html

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/crime-corruption-and-political-system_7.html

Looking at the ARGENTINE political landscape, this phenomenon is particularly strong. With the end of the military dictatorship, political entities quickly learned that democracy also offers the opportunity to enrich oneself and thus get a cut from the “tax income cake”, thereby neglecting the need of the common citizens.

In many matured democratic nations, official entities tend also to be corrupted, but they are wise enough to keep maybe 10 percent for themselves where as 90 percent go into infrastructure improvement and social welfare, to keep the public calm, where as in other countries the math’s are reversed, thus citizens experience lack of infrastructure improvement and social welfare as well as life quality, which in the long run backfires.

Peronist fantasies and bottom-of-the-world complexes a Déjà vu........2014 

Twenty-five years ago the country faced hyperinflation (5,000 percent in 1989), capital flight, currency instability, heavy-handed state interventionism, dwindling reserves, uncompetitive industry, heavy reliance on commodity exports, reawakening Peronist fantasies and bottom-of-the-world complexes. Today inflation is high rather than hyper. Otherwise, not a whole lot has changed.

Hope is hard to banish from the human heart, but it has to be said that Argentina does its best to do so.

DEMOCRACY IN ITS INFANCY

In many aspects ARGENTINA is still in its infancy, experimenting and evolving with its young democracy, seeing how far it can lean over the edge of the cliff before falling. In view of its short democracy, ARGENTINA should be given some leeway in order to progress. ARGENTINA still needs  to mature politically as well as socially. Afterall it took most of the EUROPEAN countries two world wars to evolve and emerge as stable democracies and ITALY years to curb in the Mafia (OC) in order to become a nation worth reckoning. 

Currently and in the near future it is unlikely that a strong political opposition will emerge in order to counterbalance the current political landscape in ARGENTINA. And even if one emerges, the question is if things will change for better or worst. 

ARGENTINA is a young democracy trying to find its bearings. 2015 is election year but in most likelihood no significant political change will occur for Peronism will still prevail. Unfortunately...............  

See also: 

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2014/02/dont-cry-for-me-argentina.html

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/09/argentines-stunning-policy-turnaround.html

ARGENTINA: A COUNTRY WITHOUT VISIBLE POLITICAL OPPOSITION.

ARGENTINE’S "INVISIBLE OPPOSITION", CONSISTING OF SELF - SEEKING ONE MAN SHOWS, WHO USE CORPORATE MEDIA TO OPPOSE THE GOVERNMENT 

Since the Kirchners’ (Center left) took rein back in 2003, their “unorthodox” but successful governing of Argentina infuriated Argentines “conservative” political opposition, if one can call it that, for unlike other countries, Argentina in reality does not have a political party system as such. Granted, when election time arrives, different so called political "parties" with fancy names start emerging, but in reality they are one man shows of ambitious self seeking individuals, mostly of who are from the large but fractured Peronist  movement, but with completely different political ideologies. 

This is where it becomes complicated understanding Argentines political landscape. The first thing that comes in one’s mind when talking about Argentine politics is Peronism, which by definition stands for an economic, political, and social ideology called Justicialismo (social justice). When listening to some of the so-called “opposition individuals” ( who claim to be Peronists) one comes to conclusion that their political objectives are a far cry from social ideologies but rather are those of a center right conservative political stance. Thus, since the Kirchners’ took office, during election times a fractured opposition of self seeking individuals with conservative views have tried to gain power and failed to do so for lack of unity and being unable to “feel the pulse and needs” of the common people. 

OPPOSITION LACKS UNITY THUS USES CORPORATE MEDIA TO OPPOSE THE GOVERNMENT 

Since they (the opposition) lack unity they are practically invisible and thus refer to a different tool of opposing the current government: CORPORATE MEDIA.

Since 2003 the media giant Clarin Group and La Nacion have been the main and powerful tool of the “invisible opposition” to oppose the current government. Misinformation, lack of objectivity etc. both in Clarin Groups TV News Channels as well as print media is a daily occurrence in Argentina. Needles to say these media giants are well connected and thus use their influence to spread misinformation about the economic situation of the country etc to The Economist, who as long as this government is in power will never write an objective article on Argentina, as well as international mainstream media outlets. 

THE AVERAGE CITIZEN HARDLY HAS THE TIME AND PATIENCE TO ANALYZE AND RESEARCH NEWSPAPER ARTICLE IN ORDER TO FORM AN OBJECTIVE OPINION, SOMETHING MAINSTREAM MEDIA EMPIRES ARE FULLY AWARE OF

Todo Noticias news channel belonging to Clarin Croup, reporting predominantly negative news

Needless to say that media giants such as Clarin group, La Nacion and the “invisible opposition” are fully aware that the average citizen hardly has the time and patience to analyze and research each article or report these entities print or transmit, nor use alternative information sources to research their claim in order to form one’s own objective opinion.Thus the majority of people of different social and educational background by large absorb and take for grant what Clarin and La Nacion (the two most read dailies in Argentina) “feed” them with. The same goes for their News Channels who are also a manipulative tool to form public opinion.