MIDDLE
EAST TURMOIL AND ISRAEL'S SECURITY
By Efraim Inbar via International Relations and
Security Network (ISN)
The MIDDLE EAST is in
great turmoil. The statist order that underpinned the region for a century has
collapsed. Several states have lost their monopoly over the use of force and
are no longer able to provide law and order. This is especially true of IRAQ,
LEBANON, LIBYA, and SYRIA. Even EGYPT, the only historic ARAB state, has had
difficulties effectively enforcing its sovereignty over its territory.
Many of the militias
challenging these state entities have a radical ISLAMIST ideology, reflecting
the rise in appeal of POLITICAL ISLAM in the ARAB world. In contrast to the
leaders of these states, who are inefficient and corrupt, the ISLAMISTS
actually deliver services to the people and have a reputation for being brutal
but honest. However, the likes of AL QAIDA in ARABIAN PENINSULA (AQAP) or the
so called ISLAMIC STATE (IS) are hardly the proper agents for modernizing their
environments and their popularity dooms the ARAB world to continuous ignorance
and poverty.
For this and other
reasons, ISRAEL will need to remain vigilant in the years ahead.
Outside Looking In
THE
STATIST ORDER THAT UNDERPINNED THE REGION FOR A CENTURY HAS COLLAPSED.
The decline of the ARAB world
has been paralleled by the rise of non-ARAB MUSLIM powers – TURKEY and IRAN.
Both countries fare better on development indices and display nowadays an
ambitious foreign policy fueled by imperial and Islamist impulses. Under RECEP
TAYYIP ERDOĞAN and his 'zero problems' approach to foreign policy, TURKEY has
gradually distanced itself from the WEST. In 2003, for example, ANKARA rejected
the UNITED STATES' request to open a "northern front" against IRAQI
forces. More recently, TURKEY has opposed sanctions levied by the UNITED
NATIONS and the WEST against RUSSIA and IRAN.
For its part, IRAN has
successfully advanced its nuclear program despite the displeasure of the
international community. Comparatively, recent developments in the MIDDLE EAST and
beyond have also allowed TEHRAN to establish a 'SHIITE CRESCENT' stretching
from TEHRAN to the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN. This has provided IRAN with countless
opportunities to project power into the MIDDLE EAST and BALKANS, much to the
chagrin of SAUDI ARABIA and others. Indeed, the successes of IRANIAN SHIITE proxies
in BAGHDAD, BEIRUT, DAMASCUS and SANAA underscore the TEHRAN quest for hegemony
in the MIDDLE EAST.
Background
Information:
TURKEYS ERRATIC
FOREIGN POLICIES
SECTARIANISM - “SUNNI
CRESCENT”
THE MIDDLE EAST IS
PERVADED AND INCREASINGLY INFECTED BY SECTARIAN RIVALRY
ARAB
DECLINE HAS BEEN PARALLELED BY THE RISE OF NON-ARAB MUSLIM POWERS – TURKEY AND
IRAN.
By contrast, US influence
around the MIDDLE EAST appears to be in decline, primarily as a result of the OBAMA
administration's foreign policy outlook. Correcting WASHINGTON'S overextension
in the ISLAMIC world is indeed necessary, but insensitivity to the concerns of
its allies such as EGYPT, ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA is destructive to the
regional balance of power.
In this respect, WASHINGTON'S
efforts to strike a deal with IRAN that basically legitimizes its nuclear
breakout status and awards TEHRAN the role of the regional policeman will be viewed
by CAIRO, RIYADH and JERUSALEM as a colossal strategic mistake. The inevitable
result will be further nuclear proliferation as none of these countries are
likely to want to stay behind in uranium enrichment capabilities. Moreover, the
regional instability could lead to more bloodshed. Relying on a radical and
revisionist regime in TEHRAN to provide stability is the height of strategic
folly.
Background
Information:
ARE IRAN AND ISRAEL
REALLY ARCHENEMIES, OR IS IT JUST A FACADE?
IRAN SOFTENS TUNE ON ISRAEL
ISRAEL SUCCESSFULLY
ESTABLISHED DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH NINE NON-ARAB MUSLIM STATES
THE
VIEW FROM JERUSALEM
The implications of the MIDDLE
EAST'S ongoing turmoil for ISRAEL'S security are mixed. Like IRAN and TURKEY, a
democratic and politically stable ISRAEL is also a rising non-ARAB power and a
player in the regional balance of power. The power differential between ISRAEL'S
national might and its neighbors has further increased, given that it has
managed to prosper economically and develop a high-tech powerful military.
Background
Information:
ISRAEL PLANS TO
RESTRUCTURE THE IDF INTO SMALL, SELF-CONTAINED ARMIES
PRO-WESTERN
SUNNI ARAB STATES SEE ISRAEL AS AN ALLY AGAINST A RISING IRAN.
In addition, the strong
armies of IRAQ and SYRIA have disappeared, decreasing the chances for a
large-scale conventional encounter with ISRAEL. Moreover, the pro-WESTERN SUNNI
states such as EGYPT, JORDAN and SAUDI ARABIA see ISRAEL as an ally against a
rising IRAN, as well as against radical ISLAMIST movements. This also comes at
a time when the UNITED STATES is viewed in many quarters as a less dependable
ally.
By contrast, low
intensity challenges might intensify. The domestic problems plaguing weakened ARAB
states make them increasingly susceptible to radical ISLAM and more prone to
terrorist violence. As their leaders lose their grip over state territory and
borders become more porous, armed groups and terrorists gain greater freedom of
action. Moreover, as weakened states lose control over their security
apparatus, national arsenals of conventional (and non-conventional) arms become
increasingly vulnerable, which may result in the emergence of increasingly
well-armed, politically dissatisfied groups that seek to harm ISRAEL. For
example, following the fall of GADDAFI, LIBYAN SA-7 anti-air missiles and
anti-tank RPGs have reached HAMAS in GAZA. The IS even fights with AMERICAN
weapons captured from the IRAQI army.
AS
ARAB LEADERS LOSE THEIR GRIP ON POWER, ARMED GROUPS AND TERRORISTS GAIN GREATER
FREEDOM OF ACTION.
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| IDF Covert OPS |
Similarly, in the event
of the ASSAD regime collapsing, SYRIA'S advanced arsenal of conventional
weapons could easily end up in the hands of HIZBALLAH or other radical
elements. This, in turn, raises the prospect of an emboldened HIZBALLAH and HAMAS
– both of whom are IRANIAN proxies located along ISRAEL'S borders – renewing
their campaigns of violence. In recent years, the fallout from the ARAB Spring
has helped to detract attention away from the PALESTINIAN issue. In addition,
the PALESTINIAN Authority's (PA) ability to harm ISRAEL in order to reignite
international interest is also very limited. As a result, a weak PA has come
under increasing pressure from the popular HAMAS. A PALESTINIAN strategic miscalculation,
leading to the eruption of another round of violence, is a possibility that ISRAEL
cannot ignore. Nevertheless, so far ISRAEL has been successful in containing
the threats from sub-state groups and in limiting their potential damage.
The emergence of an
uncertain and unstable strategic environment is conducive to strategic
surprises. ISRAELI Intelligence is challenged by a plethora of new actors and
leaders whose modus operandi is far from clear. ISRAEL has a large and
sophisticated intelligence apparatus. Yet it is not immune to surprises.
Therefore, it would be wise to prepare for worst-case scenarios, rather than
succumb to rosy assessments.
Background Information:
ISRAEL’S DEFENSE STRATEGY OVERHAUL
LONG-RANGE, LARGELY
CLANDESTINE AND MULTI-SERVICE MISSIONS
LOOKING
WEST (IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE)
The turmoil in the ARAB
world is also changing the strategic landscape in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN basin,
where elements of radical ISLAM are gaining control. TUNISIA, LIBYA, SINAI in EGYPT,
GAZA, LEBANON, SYRIA and TURKEY all play host to groups with ISLAMIST
tendencies, thereby threatening the currently unrestricted access to this area
by ISRAEL and the WEST.
FOR
JERUSALEM, THE KEY FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPING REGIONAL BALANCE OF POWER IS IRAN'S
“NUCLEARIZATION”.
Approximately 90 percent
of ISRAEL'S foreign trade is carried out via the MEDITERRANEAN, making freedom
of navigation in this area critical for ISRAEL'S economic well-being. Moreover,
its chances of becoming energy independent and a significant exporter of gas is
linked to ISRAEL'S ability to secure free passage for its maritime trade and to
defend its newly discovered hydrocarbon fields, LEVIATHAN and TAMAR. These
developments require greater ISRAELI efforts in the naval arena. Indeed, ISRAEL
is engaged in building a robust security system for the gas fields and has
procurement plans for additional vessels.
Background
Information:
ISRAEL’S IRAN
“WARMONGERING RHETORIC’S” ARE DECEIVING TACTICS FOR A GREATER CAUSE
TWO “ARCH FOES”
ALLIED IN OPPOSING IRAN DEAL?
OIL AND GAS RESERVES
ADD TO EXISTING TENSIONS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND LEBANON
As with other parts of
the MIDDLE EAST, the assessment in JERUSALEM is that the key factor in the
developing regional balance of power is IRAN'S “Nuclearization”. This would be
a "game changer" that only ISRAEL has the capability to prevent. NETANYAHU'S
recent electoral victory left in power the only leader that might have the
political courage to order a military strike to obstruct the IRANIAN progress
towards acquiring nuclear weapons. Indeed, his victory was quietly welcomed in
the capitals of the moderate ARAB states that are terrified of Iran and have
little time for OBAMA. SAUDI ARABIA and EGYPT are good examples.
Accordingly, ISRAEL is
watching with growing bewilderment the endeavor of the OBAMA administration to
implement a "grand bargain" with IRAN. This puts JERUSALEM on an
inevitable collision course with its most important ally. ISRAEL continues to
benefit from a large reservoir of sympathy among the populace of the UNITED
STATES, and most notably within the REPUBLICAN controlled Congress.
Background
Information:
AZERBAIJAN'S ISRAEL
DIPLOMACY TESTS IRAN
POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN
THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND IRAN’S PRIORITIES IN THE REGION
ISRAEL’S ARMENIAN,
IRANIAN AND AZERBAIJAN EQUATION
Yet, while OBAMA is not
popular, as president he can extract heavy costs in the military, diplomatic
and strategic arenas. The remaining 22 months until he leaves office must be
weathered with minimum damage to the AMERICAN-ISRAELI strategic partnership,
particularly if ISRAEL chooses to make good on its threat not to allow IRAN to
become a nuclear power. With this in mind, the AMERICAN-IRANIAN nexus is the
most dangerous challenge for ISRAEL'S national security in the near future.
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