ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI ALLIANCE AND IRAN Part 3

IRAN AND ISRAEL: REAL ARCH FOES OR JUST A FACADE? 

By Mahir Khalifa-zadeh

A key element in the AZERBAIJAN-ISRAEL relationship has been their mutual concern over the Islamic Republic of IRAN. IRAN presents the most serious threat to ISRAEL. As result, Jerusalem has launched a strategy of active diplomacy in the region surrounding IRAN. At a May 2009 conference at the Center for IRANIAN Studies at Tel Aviv University, the former head of the ISRAELI Military Intelligence Directorate Major General Aharon Ze’evi Farkash said, “It is very important to form a coalition with the moderate Sunnite countries which… [fear the] IRANIAN nuclear threat.” In addition, according to ISRAELI analyst Uzi Rabbi, “ISRAEL must conduct active diplomacy in the regions surrounding IRAN,” and “to resist IRANIAN aggression several coalition alliances should be formed.”[42]

Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: As mentioned numerous times on this blog, mainstream media and to some extend even alternative media report that IRAN presents the most serious threat to ISRAEL, and that IRAN’S nuclear threat should be a concern for the entire world is mainly a convenient bargaining tool for both, ISRAEL and IRAN. In most likelihood the behind the scene scenario looks rather different. Like with AZERBAIJAN, ISRAEL may conduct secrete wheeling and dealings with the PERSIAN state, a scenario not at all impossible, since ISRAEL’S new political doctrine fosters geopolitical as well as economic alliances with non Arab Muslim stated. After all the two countries, in the not too distant past, had not always been arch enemies. See:

ARE IRAN AND ISRAEL REALLY ARCHENEMIES, OR IS IT JUST A FACADE?  http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/iran-and-israel-real-archenemies.html and

IRAN SOFTENS TUNE ON ISRAEL http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/iran-and-israel-improvement-in.html

ISRAEL’S ARMENIAN, IRANIAN AND AZERBAIJAN EQUATION 

Thus, AZERBAIJAN, with its strategic location along IRAN’S northern border, plays an important part of ISRAEL’S foreign policy agenda vis-à-vis the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). ISRAELI policymakers are aware of AZERBAIJAN’S insecurity and mistrust towards IRAN because of Tehran’s aid to ARMENIA, which occupies territory internationally recognized as part of AZERBAIJAN.

In view of these facts, ISRAEL has repeatedly declared that Jerusalem supported AZERBAIJANI territorial integrity. The former ISRAELI ambassador to TURKEY and the ex-deputy foreign minister, Pinkhaz Avivi, said, “Our position is the following: We recognize the principle of AZERBAIJAN’S territorial integrity. We don’t try to hide the fact that our relations with AZERBAIJAN are more intense and rewarding than our relations with ARMENIA and that relations with AZERBAIJAN are strategically important for us.” He also added in an interview, “We have common goals. We understand AZERBAIJAN’S concern with its IRANIAN neighbor better than anyone, and that’s a good ground for rapprochement. Our dialogue with ARMENIA, on other hand, has always been interconnected with our relations with TURKEY.”[43]

TURKEY IS ESSENTIAL FOR ISRAEL’S FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Undoubtedly, TURKISH cooperation is essential for ISRAEL’S foreign and security policy. ISRAEL considers the TURKISH-AZERBAIJANI alliance as a favorable factor for deepening and enhancing security and defense cooperation with AZERBAIJAN despite the cooling of ISRAEL’S relations with Ankara. ISRAEL, for its part, considers the expansion of political and defense cooperation with AZERBAIJAN an influential factor for improving its relations with TURKEY. The ISRAELI military industry is now a major provider of advanced aviation, anti-tank artillery, and anti-infantry weapon systems to AZERBAIJAN. 

ISRAELI DRONES FOR AZERBAIJAN 

Furthermore, ISRAELI Aeronautics Defense Systems have helped AZERBAIJAN assemble unmanned aircrafts.[44] In February 2012, ISRAELI defense officials reportedly confirmed a deal to sell unmanned military aircrafts as well as antiaircraft and missile defense systems to AZERBAIJAN for approximate $1.6 billion.[45]

Background Information:

$1.6 BILLION ARMS AGREEMENT THAT PROVIDES AZERBAIJAN WITH SOPHISTICATED DRONES AND MISSILE-DEFENSE SYSTEMS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/israel-azerbaijan-and-iran.html and

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/israel-azerbaijan-and-kazakhstan_6.html

WAHHABI ORGANIZATIONS OPERATING IN AZERBAIJAN?

ISRAEL and AZERBAIJAN maintain intense cooperate on security issues as well. In October 2001, President Heydar Aliyev met with ISRAEL’S ambassador, Eitan Naeh, and confirmed that “their positions in the fight against international terrorism… were identical.” According to ISRAELI experts, groups like Hizb al-Tahrir pose a threat both to Jerusalem and to Baku. ISRAELI analysts also argue that some Wahhabi organizations may be operating in AZERBAIJAN. 

Background Information: ORIGIN OF WAHHABISM at:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/08/saudi-arabia-origin-of-wahhabism.html

ALLEGEDLY, IDF ELECTRONIC LISTENING STATIONS HAVE BEEN SET UP ALONG THE CASPIAN SEA AND IRANIAN BORDER

Security cooperation between the two countries has entailed intelligence exchanges, data analysis (including satellite information), briefings, and other activities. ISRAEL also trains AZERBAIJANI security and intelligence services and provides security for the AZERI president on foreign visits. Some sources also report that ISRAEL has set up electronic listening stations along the Caspian Sea and IRANIAN border.[47]

ISRAEL’S next priority is to counter the IRANIAN intelligence network in AZERBAIJAN and in other Muslim countries of the CIS. IRAN has attempted to expand its political influence to its immediate neighbors as well as to intensify intelligence operations, particularly in AZERBAIJAN. According to AZERBAIJANI media reports, the national security services have arrested 22 people who were sent by IRAN to carry out terrorist attacks against the U.S. and ISRAELI embassies, as well as against Western-linked groups and companies in Baku. In February 2012, the AZERBAIJANI Ministry of National Security announced the arrest of a terrorist group allegedly working for IRAN’S secret services. In January 2012, AZERBAIJAN’S secret service arrested two people accused of plotting to kill two teachers at a Jewish school in Baku. In 2007, AZERBAIJAN arrested 15 people in connection with an alleged IRANIAN-linked spy network accused of providing intelligence on Western and ISRAELI activities.[48]

AZERI-ISRAELI security cooperation is vital and beneficial for both Baku and Jerusalem. The failure of the AZERBAIJANI-ISRAELI alliance to work together to counter IRAN would be irresponsible and would have unpredictable consequences for Baku and Jerusalem. Tehran’s attempts to expand its Shi’i and IRANIAN ideology could have a negative impact on AZERBAIJAN’S potential to be an independent and strong AMERICAN ally in the region. It is clear that the fall of secular AZERBAIJAN would badly damage ISRAEL’S security and AMERICA’S strategic interests. Moreover, this would strengthen IRAN and create a totally new balance of power in the GREATER MIDDLE EAST, particularly in the SOUTH CAUCASUS and CASPIAN basin, as well as in CENTRAL ASIA.

ENERGY FACTOR, ISRAEL AND AZERBAIJAN

Last, AZERBAIJANI energy is a critical factor in ISRAEL’S strategic calculations. In 2011, AZERBAIJAN exported as much as to 2.5 million tons (about 18.5 million barrels) of oil with total worth of $2.1 billon to ISRAEL. Last year trade turnover between ISRAEL and AZERBAIJAN reached $4 billion, making AZERBAIJAN ISRAEL’S top trade partner within CIS countries.[49] According to Ariel Cohen, ISRAEL “… can benefit from projects designed to bring CASPIAN and CENTRAL ASIAN oil and gas to WESTERN markets as they allow ISRAEL to diversify supply and receive abundant energy at affordable price.”[50]

ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI energy cooperation has clearly become an extremely important factor for ISRAEL’S energy security. This cooperation allows for the diversification of supplies of oil and gas and for exploration of ISRAEL’S energy resources. Baku provides Jerusalem with over one-third of ISRAEL’S oil supply.[51] As a result of former ISRAELI Foreign Minister Lieberman’s April 2012 visit to Baku, SOCAR will start drilling in Med Ashdod, ISRAEL’S oil field, located 16 kilometers off the MEDITERRANEAN coast.  The ISRAELI Ambassador to Baku, Michael Lotem said, “The drilling will begin soon. The work is at a very advanced stage and delivery of a drilling rig to the field is now expected.[52] The project is SOCAR’s first oil-production or drilling operation outside of AZERBAIJAN. The contract allows SOCAR to gain international experience and expand its operations in TURKEY, GEORGIA, ISRAEL, and other countries.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES

It is well-known that the UNITED STATES has declared the CASPIAN basin as vital to its national interests. In this context, the ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI partnership is an effective tool to strengthen and support AMERICA’S strategic presence in this very sensitive part of the world. Furthermore, the ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI alliance to counter IRAN has strategic importance for U.S. interests, particularly in the GREATER MIDDLE EAST and CENTRAL ASIA. Unlike ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN and GEORGIA are AMERICA’S allies in the SOUTH CAUCASUS and the CASPIAN basin. The strengthening of AZERBAIJAN’S secular and pro-Western independence should be a strategic priority for U.S. diplomacy in the region.

However, the Obama administration’s lack of focus on SOUTH CAUCASUS affairs jeopardizes AMERICA’S strategic interests in the region. Unlike the Clinton administration and the Bush administration, the Obama administration has not been active in managing IRANIAN and RUSSIAN influence in this part of the world. As result of the RUSSO-GEORGIAN war of 2008, the Tehran-Moscow axis effectively decreased AMERICA’S influence in the GREATER CASPIAN BASIN. Now, the axis continues to limit or minimize U.S. political activity and increases pressure on Washington’s allies.

Indeed, AZERBAIJAN is under double pressure from IRAN and RUSSIA and needs strong U.S. support to secure its national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. AZERBAIJAN’S pro-WESTERN independence ensures a U.S. strategic presence in the CASPIAN basin and facilitates its power projection deep into ASIA. In this context, AZERBAIJAN is of the utmost geostrategic importance for the UNITED STATES. The loss of a secular and independent AZERBAIJAN, as previously discussed, would badly damage both U.S. and EU strategic interests.

GEO STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

Since the fall of the SOVIET UNION, the historically close and warm relations between Jews and Azeris became a solid base for mutual cooperation between the State of Israel and the Republic of AZERBAIJAN. Both countries are strategically located but in hostile environments. This has strengthened their rapprochement and led to expanded cooperation.

Despite strong opposition from Tehran and Moscow, AZERBAIJAN has established a close partnership with ISRAEL. Today, Baku and Jerusalem are partners on a wide range of issues. The insecurity and regional threats have pushed both AZERBAIJAN and ISRAEL to create a strategic alliance that enhances security and defense capabilities.

However, the future of the ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI relationship depends on the political nature of the ruling power in AZERBAIJAN. IRAN continues its attempts to spread its Islamic Revolution ideology into AZERBAIJAN through Shi’i propaganda, while expanding its intelligence network in Baku and other major AZERBAIJANI cities.

The strengthening of pro-Islamist or Shi’i political forces would have a catastrophic impact on AZERBAIJAN’S political future as a secular state and a strong ISRAELI and AMERICAN ally. In this light, the strengthening of ties in all areas is crucial in order to combat IRANIAN influence. It is also of fundamental importance that the AZERI-JEWISH/ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI alliance is cultivated as a long-term and mutually advantageous relationship.

SIGNIFICANCE OF RICHARD MORNINGSTAR’S NOMINATION AS U.S. AMBASSADOR TO AZERBAIJAN

With its pro-WESTERN foreign policy, AZERBAIJAN is strategically important for U.S. and ISRAELI interests in the GREATER MIDDLE EAST and in the post-Soviet space. Ensuring AZERBAIJAN’S future as a secular, independent state should be a key priority for ISRAEL and the UNITED STATES. It is likely that the new U.S. administration will intensify efforts to support AZERBAIJAN’S independence and territorial integrity in order to position it under NATO’s security umbrella and to protect the strategic WESTERN oil infrastructure in the CASPIAN basin. Richard Morningstar’s 2012 nomination as U.S. Ambassador to AZERBAIJAN was a strategic move aimed to revive and push forward U.S. diplomacy in the SOUTH CAUCASUS and CASPIAN basin.

Background Information on RICHARD MORNINGSTAR: Read below extracts from

“COMPLEXITY-OF-EASTERN-MED-ENERGY-GAMES”

US SPECIAL ENVOY FOR EURASIAN ENERGY, AMBASSADOR RICHARD MORNINGSTAR AND THE USA’S GEOPOLITICAL AGENDA

In July 2011 Washington joined the GREEK energy game. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton flew to Athens with energy on her mind. That was clear by the fact she brought along Special Envoy for EURASIAN Energy, Richard Morningstar. Morningstar was husband Bill Clinton’s Special Advisor to the President on CASPIAN Basin Energy Diplomacy. Morningstar, along with his controversial aide, Matthew Bryza, have been the key Washington architects of Washington’s geopolitically-motivated oil and gas pipeline projects that would isolate RUSSIA and its Gazprom gas resources from the EU. Bryza is an open opponent of RUSSIAN Gazprom’s South Stream gas pipeline that would transit the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN states. The USA seems to have its own agenda regarding GREEKS recent oil and gas discoveries, for three days after Hillary left Athens the GREEK government proposed creation of a new government agency to run tenders for oil and gas surveys and ultimate drilling bids.

US SPECIAL ENVOY FOR EURASIAN ENERGY, AMBASSADOR RICHARD MORNINGSTAR  - THE US SPECIALIST IN “ECONOMIC WARFARE”:

He was instrumental in backing the controversial B-T-C oil pipeline from Baku through Tbilisi in GEORGIA across to the TURKISH Mediterranean port of CEYHAN, a costly enterprise designed solely to bypass RUSSIAN oil pipeline transit. 

Entire article can be read at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html

With regard to any military option to stop IRAN’S nuclear program, AZERBAIJAN continues to attempt to remain neutral. On a May 29, 2012, visit to Tehran, the AZERBAIJANI minister of defense said, “The Republic of AZERBAIJAN, like always in the past, will never permit any country to take advantage of its land, or air, against the Islamic Republic of IRAN, which we consider our brother and friend country.”

Indeed, Baku would like to avoid any possible military clashes with IRAN and maintain its neutrality. However, AZERBAIJAN’S actions and pragmatic foreign policy indicate that Baku’s position is more pro-Western than pro-IRANIAN. Baku will thus continue to cooperate with ISRAEL in order to protect and advance AZERBAIJANI national interests.

Mahir Khalifa-zadeh, Ph.D. is a political analyst based in Toronto, Canada. He is affiliated with the Montreal-based Center for Research on Globalization and is a member of the Canadian Political Science Association. He is also Professor of Political Science at the International Eco-Energy Academy (Baku, Azerbaijan) and a regular contributor to international journals on global politics and security. His latest article is “Iran and the South Caucasus: A Struggle for Influence” (Sweden, 2011).

Notes:

[42] Artak Grigoryan, “Priority Directions in the Foreign Policy of Israel: South Caucasus and Central Asia,” Noravank Foundation, September 22, 2009, http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=3623.

[43] “Pinkhaz Avivi: We Embrace the Potential of Economic Ties with the South Caucasus,” November 7, 2011, Vestnik Kavkaza, http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/19641.html.

[44] “Azeris Get Israel UAVs Built Under License,” UPI, October 7, 2011, http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Azeris_get_Israel_UAVs_built_under_license_999.html.

[45] “Israel Signs $1.6 Billion Arms Deal with Azerbaijan,” Haaretz.com, February 26, 2012, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-signs-1-6-billion-arms-deal-with-azerbaijan-1.414916.

[47] Shamkhal Abilov, “The Azerbaijan-Israel Relations: A Non-diplomatic but Strategic Partnership,” OAKA, Vol. 4, No. 8 (2009), http://www.usak.org.tr/dosyalar/dergi/gm3veLfV7Q5rP83jaIV34UObvarinb.pdf, pp. 138-56.

[48] “Azerbaijan Arrests Alleged Iran-hired Terrorists,” Fox News, March 14, 2012, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/03/14/22-arrested-in-azerbaijan-in-plot-on-us-israeli-embassies/.

[49] “Lieberman: The Trade Turnover Between Azerbaijan and Israel Reaches $4 Billion,” Contact.az, April 23, 2012, http://www.contact.az/docs/2012/Politics/04234650en.htm.

[50] Cohen and DeCorla-Souza, “Eurasian Energy and Israel’s Choices.”

[51] Jen Alic, “Azerbaijan’s International Energy Aspirations Raise Tensions in Middle East,” Oilprice.com, May 15, 2012, http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Azerbaijans-International-Energy-Aspirations-Raise-Tensions-in-Middle-East.html.

[52] Shahin Abbasov