ISRAEL’S IRAN “WARMONGERING
RHETORIC’S” ARE DECEIVING TACTICS FOR A GREATER CAUSE
See related topic:
TURKEY’S ENERGY DEPENDENCY ON COUNTRIES LIKE RUSSIA AND IRAN HAVE A RESTRAINING EFFECT ON ITS FOREIGN POLICY
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-energy-dependency-on-countries.html
In recent past mainstream media and ISRAEL itself, increasingly stipulated that it is pushing for a preemptive airstrike on IRAN. Looking at ISRAEL history and how it conducts its wars and covert operations, it becomes imminent that it relies heavily on the element of surprise. Such was the case during most of its wars, rescue operations such as Entebbe, UGANDA in 1976, the IRAQI nuclear reactor air strike in 1981 and the alleged SYRIAN nuclear reactor airstrike in 2007. Thus as long as ISRAEL is “threatening” to attack IRAN on a daily base, and media coverage is in full swing, one can be sure that no such strike is imminent, for the element of surprise is lost. In most likelihood, ISRAEL’S threats of attacking IRAN and at the same time urging the USA to set a red line are calculated tactics and strategies in order to obtain certain concessions from the USA and indeed other allies. In most likelihood ISRAEL pursues a much more complex goal with its warmongering rhetoric’s against IRAN, than really intending to attack IRAN, one that will give ISRAEL inevitably some significant advantage, be it geopolitical, strategically or economically.
TURKEY’S ENERGY DEPENDENCY ON COUNTRIES LIKE RUSSIA AND IRAN HAVE A RESTRAINING EFFECT ON ITS FOREIGN POLICY
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-energy-dependency-on-countries.html
In recent past mainstream media and ISRAEL itself, increasingly stipulated that it is pushing for a preemptive airstrike on IRAN. Looking at ISRAEL history and how it conducts its wars and covert operations, it becomes imminent that it relies heavily on the element of surprise. Such was the case during most of its wars, rescue operations such as Entebbe, UGANDA in 1976, the IRAQI nuclear reactor air strike in 1981 and the alleged SYRIAN nuclear reactor airstrike in 2007. Thus as long as ISRAEL is “threatening” to attack IRAN on a daily base, and media coverage is in full swing, one can be sure that no such strike is imminent, for the element of surprise is lost. In most likelihood, ISRAEL’S threats of attacking IRAN and at the same time urging the USA to set a red line are calculated tactics and strategies in order to obtain certain concessions from the USA and indeed other allies. In most likelihood ISRAEL pursues a much more complex goal with its warmongering rhetoric’s against IRAN, than really intending to attack IRAN, one that will give ISRAEL inevitably some significant advantage, be it geopolitical, strategically or economically.
THE KEY FACTOR FOR ISRAEL’S DECISION
MAKING: IRAN’S “PRESENCE” IN SYRIA
The minute ISRAEL and the media stop
mentioning air strikes against IRAN that is the time one should become
concerned, for that is the time when an attack is most likely imminent. (Given
that the result of such attack will provide huge geostrategical and political
advantages for ISRAEL). For the time being the saber rattling are just geopolitical
tactics. Nevertheless, the chances of ISRAEL launching an airstrike against
IRAN’S nuclear facilities are unlikely, especially with IRAN’S “presence” in
SYRIA and SYRIA’S Bio-Chemical arsenal at its disposal. Current rhetoric’s by
ISRAEL, USA and IRAN are primarily here to reshuffle the geopolitical landscape
as well as counteract the current geostrategical shift occurring in the region
due to new findings of natural resources and increased power struggle between
Sunni and Shiite Muslims, as well as TURKEYS increased muscle flexing in
order to become the key player in the region.
Israel’s “warmongering” against IRAN
is a well orchestrated strategy in order to gain geopolitical and economic
concessions and advantages from the USA and its allies. Under current
conditions ISRAEL will never initiate a full scale attack against IRAN. Nevertheless one should be aware that all
current assumptions, analysis, opinions regarding the Israel - Iran
confrontation is based on information fed to the broad public and media by the
upper echelons of world politics. No one knows what wheeling and dealings
regarding IRAN, SYRIA, ISRAEL, SAUDI ARABIA, the USA, TURKEY etc. are currently
going on behind closed doors.
Background
Information:
Why
prospects of an Israel Iran conflict remain low
WAR
STRATEGIES
Continues saber rattling however has
prompted countless thesis and speculations how ISRAEL would go about conduct
such attack, given the complexity of such operation, both tactically as well as
logistically. To complicate the issues is the necessity of involving foreign
countries with no official diplomatic ties to ISRAEL, to utilize their airspace
in order to be able to conduct the airstrike.
In most cases military strategists
and analysts believe ISRAEL would attack via SAUDI ARABIA or TURKEY, given that
these two countries are in alignment with the USA and ISRAEL when it comes to
the topic of IRAN and of toppling the SYRIAN government, a close ally of IRAN.
(Though in the case of SYRIA, ISRAEL has refrained from voicing decisive disagreement
on the current upraise, simply because the Assad regime, for more than thirty
years has been the most stable entity on ISRAEL’S northern frontier. Despite
the fact that the two countries are technically still at war with one another) Furthermore
ISRAEL obtained permission by SAUDI ARABIA to use its airspace in 1981, in
order to destroy an IRAQI nuclear reactor.
 |
| 1981 Nuclear Reactor attack |
Possible attack routes: See map on the right
Taking off
from Paphos AF base in Cyprus would reduce the trip through Turkish airspace by
about 100 km. Because of the political discrepancies between Cyprus and Turkey this
option is not feasible, though it would save fuel and increase range. The other
option is to take off from Haifa, follow the coast of Lebanon and Syria, enter
Turkish airspace, thus lengthening the trip by 150 km and risking detection
from Syrian radar.
Taking off
from Israel’s most southern airbase and crossing entire Saudi Arabia only to
head north after entering the Persian Gulf will stretch the fighters to their
limit. Another shorter rout would be to fly via Saudi Arabia through Iraq,
which would require cooperation with Iraq and the USA.
Background Information:
Increased Iranian
influence in Syria provoked Israel to change its longstanding tactics regarding
Syria
The other commonly described
scenario is that of ISRAEL using TURKISH airspace in order to enter IRAN,
despite the fact that the two countries political ties, (officially) have been
entirely severed. Since TURKEY strongly opposes IRAN’S stance on SYRIA and
envisions itself becoming a regional Sunni powerhouse, TURKEY would let Geo-strategic interests prevailed over political discourses with Israel.
Background
Information:
Israeli Exports to Turkey rise 42% to
equal exports to Germany.
Israeli Turkish economic ties
Israel's trade with Turkey worth $2b
in first half
Analysts then go into great details
speculating where the attack force would conduct its midair refueling etc. What
many analysts neglect to take into consideration is that ISRAEL has another
joker up its sleeve, should it real wish to venture out attacking IRAN, namely
AZERBAIJAN and KAZAKHSTAN:
ISRAEL’S
GENIUSES CHESS MOVE
As in CYPRUS, where ISRAEL secured military
cooperation agreements to utilize western Cyprus’s airbase, it is believe that
the ISRAELIS have also gained access to airbases in AZERBAIJAN as well as
KAZAKHSTAN.
Background
Information:
Israel to
station military jets in Cyprus
As early as 2009, speculations of
increased ISRAELI and AZERBAIJANIAN and indeed KAZAKHSTAN ties emerged in US
diplomatic circles prompting the U.S. embassy in Baku to inform Washington that
AZERBAIJAN'S discreetly symbiosis with ISRAEL. The memo, later released by
WikiLeaks, quotes AZERBAIJAN'S President Ilham Aliyev as describing his
country's relationship with ISRAEL as an iceberg: "nine-tenths of it is
below the surface." On the other hand, ISRAEL’S increasingly close
relations, both military and economically, with KAZAKHSTAN go by virtually
unnoticed.
Allegedly ISRAEL has recently been
granted access to airbases on IRAN'S northern border, the purpose of which is
not clear. The USA seems to be extremely agitated by ISRAEL’S alleged move,
worrying that ISRAEL’S presence in the region could pivot the entire
geopolitical landscape of the region and give ISRAEL an enormous strategic as
well as economic advantage.
The UNITED STATES concern is that ISRAEL’S
presence could spread a war scenario that includes not only the PERSIAN GULF --
but also the CAUCASUS. The burgeoning ISRAEL-AZERBAIJAN relationship has also
become a flashpoint in US relationship with TURKEY, a regional heavyweight that
has its own agenda in the region. Thus it comes of no surprise that TURKEY have
raised their concerns with their U.S. counterparts, as well as with the AZERIS.
Background Information:
Turkey’s
current Middle East policy makes enemies with everyone
In
turkeys view, Israel supports Cyprus with which it shares many interests in a
bid to pressurize the regional countries in different ways
As with CYPRUS, AZERBAIJAN and ISRAEL
did not comment on alleged security agreements between the two countries.
Officially, AZERBAIJAN'S defense
minister ruled out the use of AZERBAIJAN for a strike on IRAN. AZERBAIJAN, just
as was the case in CYPRUS, officially denied that the government had granted ISRAEL
access to AZERI airbases.
AZERBAIJAN’S claim that it would not
grant ISRAEL to conduct an airstrike from its airbases does not mean it would
bar ISRAELI bombers from landing in the country after a strike. Nor does AZERBAIJAN
ruled out the basing of ISRAELI search-and-rescue units in the country. (Same
official statements as was the case in CYPRUS, when speculations raised that ISRAEL
would station IAF fighters permanently in CYPRUS)
Background Information:
Israel’s
first state visit to Cyprus and its geo-strategic repercussion for the region
AZERI MINORITY
IN IRAN, PART OF THE EQUATION
Proffering such landing rights --
and mounting search and rescue operations closer to IRAN -- would make an ISRAELI
attack on IRAN easier.
ISRAEL'S deepening relationship with
the Baku government was cemented by a $1.6 billion arms agreement that provides
AZERBAIJAN with sophisticated drones and missile-defense systems. At the same
time, Baku's ties with Tehran have frayed: IRAN presented a note to AZERBAIJAN'S
ambassador claiming that Baku has supported ISRAELI-trained assassination
squads targeting IRANIAN scientists, an accusation the AZERI government called
"a slander." In February, a member of Yeni Azerbadzhan -- the ruling
party – called on the government to change the country's name to "NORTH
AZERBAIJAN," implicitly suggesting that the 16 million AZERIS who live in
northern IRAN ("SOUTH AZERBAIJAN") are in need of liberation.
It's clear why the ISRAELIS prize their ties to AZERBAIJAN -- and why the IRANIANS
are infuriated by them. The AZERI military has four abandoned, SOVIET-era
airfields that would potentially be available to the ISRAELIS, as well as four
airbases for their own aircraft, according to the International Institute for
Strategic Studies “Military Balance 2011”.NOT ONLY AZERBAIJAN, ALSO KAZAKHSTAN
Allegedly ISRAEL has gained access to these airbases through a series of
quiet political and military understandings, because ISRAEL is deeply embedded
in AZERBAIJAN, and has been for the last two decades. In addition ISRAEL’S ties
with KAZAKHSTAN continue to grow.
Background Information:
Kazakhstan–Israeli Relations
Israelis
to help build industry parks in Kazakhstan
The prospect of ISRAEL using AZERBAIJAN'S airfields for an IRANIAN attack
first became public in December 2006, when retired ISRAELI Brig. Gen. Oded Tira
angrily denounced the George W. Bush administration's lack
of action on the IRANIAN nuclear program. "For our part," he wrote in
a widely cited commentary, "we should also coordinate with AZERBAIJAN the
use of airbases in its territory and also enlist the support of the AZERI minority
in IRAN."
HYPOTHETICAL STRIKE SCENARIO
Access to such airfields is important for ISRAEL, because it would mean that
ISRAELI F-15I and F-16I fighter-bombers would not have to refuel midflight
during a strike on IRAN'S nuclear facilities, but could simply continue north
and land in AZERBAIJAN.
The ability to use AZERI airfields are no doubt an significant asset to any ISRAEL
military operation, calculating that the 4400 km trip from ISRAEL to IRAN and
back again would stretch ISRAEL'S warplanes to their limits, even with
auxiliary fuel tanks. Thus being allowed access to AZERI airfields or even
launch attacks from there, would be crucial.
Some strategist claim that ISRAEL is capable of using its fleet of F-15I and
F-16I warplanes in a strike on IRAN without refueling after the initial top-off
over ISRAEL, for it seems not a weight problem but the numbers of weapons that
are mounted on each aircraft. The more distance a fighter-bomber is required to
travel, the more fuel it will need and the fewer weapons it can carry.
Shortening the distance adds firepower, and enhances the chances for a
successful strike and even engage in short aerial combat if required.
According to defense experts, the F-15s who would go in as fighters to
protect the F-16 bombers and stay over the target are the problem. In the
likely event that Iran scrambled its fighters to intercept the Israeli jets the
F-15s would be used to engage them. Those F-15s would burn up fuel over the target,
and would need to land within close proximity.
Thus AZERBAIJAN would be ideal, or if need be even KAZAKHSTAN. In view
of the political implications such move would have the entire operation would
have to be low profile, so that means it would have to be outside of Baku and
it would have to be highly developed. One possible location for such operation
could be the Sitalchay airstrip, located just over 80 km northwest of Baku and 600km
from Tehran. Prior to the collapse of the SOVIET UNION, Sitalchay two tarmacs
and the adjacent facilities were used by a squadron of SOVIET Sukhoi SU-25 jets
-- perfect for ISRAELI fighters and bombers.
 |
| Sitalchay airstrip |
Even if ISRAELI jets did not land in AZERBAIJAN or use its airbases, access
to AZERI airfields holds a number of advantages for the ISRAEL Defense Forces.
The airfields not only have facilities to service fighter-bombers but could be
utilized to base helicopter rescue units in the days just prior to a strike for
possible search and rescue missions.
In 2010, ISRAELI – ROMANIAN conducted a joint exercise that tested ISRAELI
air capabilities in mountainous areas -- like those the ISRAELI Air Force would
face during a bombing mission against IRANIAN nuclear facilities that the IRANIANS
have buried deep into mountainsides. The USA watched the exercises closely, not
least because they objected to the large number of ISRAELI fighters operating
from airbases of a NATO-member country, but also because 100 ISRAELI fighters
overflew GREECE as a part of a simulation of an attack on IRAN. Allegedly the ISRAELIS
eventually curtailed their ROMANIAN military activities when the UNITED STATES expressed
discomfort with what they believed was an alleged bombing practice of IRAN,
staged from a NATO country.
ISRAEL IS THE SECOND LARGEST CUSTOMER
FOR AZERI OIL
In addition, ISRAEL could also use AZERBAIJAN as a base for ISRAELI drones,
either as part of recognizance missions, follow-on attack against IRAN, or to
mount aerial assessment in an attack's aftermath.
 |
| Baku Tibilisi Ceyhan pipeline |
AZERBAIJAN clearly profits from its deepening relationship with ISRAEL.
ISRAEL is the second largest customer for AZERI oil - shipped through the Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan pipeline -- and
its military trade allows AZERBAIJAN to upgrade its military after the
Organization for Cooperation and Security in EUROPE (OSCE) slapped it with an
arms embargo after its six-year undeclared war with ARMENIA over the disputed
Nagorno-Karabakh region. Finally, modernizing the AZERI military sends a clear
signal to Iran that interference in AZERBAIJAN could be costly.
The deepening AZERI-ISRAELI relationship has also escalated the TURKISH
ISRAELI dispute over gas findings and extraction activities in conjunction with
CYPRUS in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA. “Officially” and according to
mainstream media, the dispute between ISRAEL and TURKEY however originated
because of ISRAELI commandos boarded a TURKISH ship destined for Gaza in May
2010, killing nine TURKISH citizens.
When TURKEY demanded an apology, ISRAEL not only refused, it abruptly
canceled a $150 million contract to develop and manufacture drones with the TURKISH
military – then entered negotiations with AZERBAIJAN to jointly manufacture 60 ISRAELI
drones of varying types. The $1.6 billion arms agreement between ISRAEL and AZERBAIJAN
also left TURKISH Prime Minister Erdogan "sputtering in rage". However
the true reason behind the TURKISH ISRAELI rift originates from natural
resource discoveries in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA.
The
true reason behind the warmongering between Turkey and Israel.
which has only heightened TURKISH anxieties further. In November 2011, the TURKISH
government retrieved the wreckage of an ISRAELI "Heron" drone in the
Mediterranean, south of the city of Adana -- well inside its maritime borders.
Erdogan's government believed the drone's flight had originated in the KURDISH
areas of northern IRAQ and demanded that ISRAEL provide an explanation, but got
none.
ISRAEL began cultivating strong relations with Baku in 1994, when ISRAELI
telecommunications firm Bezeq bought a large share of the nationally controlled
telephone operating system. By 1995, AZERBAIJAN'S marketplace was awash with ISRAELI
goods:
 |
|
Azerbaijan’s acquisition of Israeli drones
|
In March 1996, then-Health Minister Ephraim Sneh became the first senior ISRAELI
official to visit Baku -- but not the last. Benjamin Netanyahu made the trip in
1997, a high-level Knesset delegation in 1998, Deputy Prime Minister Avigdor
Lieberman and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in 2007, ISRAELI President Shimon
Peres in 2009, and Lieberman again, as foreign minister, this last February.
Accompanying Peres on his visit to Baku was the CEO of ISRAEL'S Aeronautics Defense
Systems and a former Mossad official who paved the way for the drone agreement.
In 2001, ISRAELI arms manufacturer Elbit
Systems contracted with GEORGIA'S Tbilisi Aerospace Manufacturing to upgrade the SOVIET SU-25 Scorpion, a
close air-support fighter, and one of its first customers was AZERBAIJAN. More
recently, ISRAEL'S Elta Systems has cooperated with AZERBAIJAN in building the TecSar reconnaissance satellite system
and, in 2009, the two countries began negotiations over AZERI production of the
Namer infantry fighting vehicle.
ISRAELI firms built and guard the fence around Baku's international airport,
monitor and help protect AZERBAIJAN'S energy infrastructure, and even provide
security for AZERBAIJAN'S president on foreign visits. Allegedly AZERBAIJAN shares
intelligence data on IRAN with ISRAEL and the chances of ISRAEL having set up electronic
listening stations along AZERBAIJAN'S IRANIAN border are increasingly likely.
ISRAELI apparently is downplaying its military cooperation with Baku,
pointing out that AZERBAIJAN is one of the few Muslim nations that makes ISRAELIS
feel welcome but does not deny it is focused on AZERBAIJAN as a military ally and
preserve AZERBAIJAN as an ally against IRAN in order to use it as a platform
for reconnaissance and as a market for military hardware.
Since ISRAEL, in most likelihood has no intentions to launch an attack on IRAN,
all above mentioned moves and speculations are part of geopolitical strategies
which will benefit ISRAEL in the long run as well as give it bargaining power
and tactical leeway in case of significant geopolitical changes in the region.
Parts of
above article have been adapted from Mark Perry
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