AND GAZPROMS DECLINING INFLUENCE IN
EUROPE
Analyzing the situation in SYRIA, and
how it differs from LIBYA, and recap the situation of GAZPROM (See http://www.gazprom.com/ ) which now finds itself in dire straits thanks
to the US shale gas boom and the fracking revolution.
THE LEVEL OF US INTERVENTION IN A CONFLICT IS ALMOST ALWAYS
DETERMINED BY OIL AND GAS.
The US is not getting involved in SYRIA,
other than through back channels, precisely because SYRIA has little in the way
of oil resources, and what it does has is the purview of FRANCE’S Total. Thus, FRANCE
has been the most vocal about intervention in SYRIA; it has assets to protect.
This is also why any governments who wish to help the SYRIAN rebel cause are
funneling money through FRANCE. Herein lays the main difference between SYRIA
and LIBYA, which is rich with oil and thus was ripe for fast intervention. It
is also why ITALY was the first to light the fuse in LIBYA—to protect its ENI
assets. (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eni)
WHAT HAPPENS IN SYRIA NEXT WILL BE OF IMMENSE
GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE
and will involve a host of countries and
micro and macro balances of power, from IRAN, IRAQ, TURKEY, LEBANON, ISRAEL,
EGYPT and JORDAN most pressingly, and RUSSIA and the US indirectly. But it’s
too complicated and there are too many variables to predict all the potential
outcomes, so intervention on this level is diluted.
Washington is scrambling to help the
“Free Syrian Army” to collect “donations” for the purchase of weapons and other
equipment, but the funds have not been as forthcoming as hoped. Still, the
rebels remain unrelenting, despite disunity in their ranks. What will unfold in
the aftermath--understanding that the genuine rebel forces have been
dangerously infiltrated by various extremist groups with diverse agendas--will
help determine any shift in the balance of power in the MIDDLE EAST. Everyone’s
actions are equally muddled, from the AMERICANS and the SAUDIS to the IRANIANS
and ISRAELIS.
THE KURDISH EQUATION
In recent days, things have become
more complicated, particularly with TURKEY in a tough spot supporting the
rebels but fearing the empowerment of militant KURDS on its southern border in
the process. To keep TURKEY happy, the SYRIAN rebels appear to be lashing out
now, violently, at the KURDS. This is a bad omen. External forces were hoping
to bring the KURDS into the rebel fold against Assad, with vague hints at KURDISH
independence. Now this new front line has been more clearly drawn. The KURDS
will hinder the rebel cause and TURKEY will be forced to fight back. While SYRIA
itself cannot affect the oil and gas market, the geopolitical changes of the
scale that will unfold can, and will.
(See http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-syrian-policies.html
and http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html
and http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/double-dealing-in-iraq-and-syria.html
)
OUTCOME AFTER LIBYAN INTERVENTION WAS OBVIOUS. NOT THOUGH
FOR THE USA AND BRITAIN
Meanwhile, in LIBYA, the recovery of
oil production is insecure at best, despite the variety of optimistic reports
that came to a very abrupt halt when the US envoy to LIBYA was murdered in an
attack on the consulate in Benghazi. Even before this, though, intimations that
the revolution in LIBYA had been a success were tainted by the reality on the
ground: LIBYA is today a chaotic mess of countless, uncontrollable militias and
the new government certainly is not in control.
If the USA and its allies, in
particular BRITAIN would have done their homework regarding LYBIA well, they
would have foreseen the negative outcome such interventions trigger. As always, ignorance,
lack of multicultural awareness prompted the US and BRITAIN into this venture,
naively believing that they could “stabilize and democratize” the ARAB world. Or at least make the region “stable” to such extend to retrieve
their oil investment. (See: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/us-intelligence-failures.html
)
Another gas-related geopolitical
dynamic one should closely follow in the coming weeks and months will be those
nipping at the heels of RUSSIA’S GAZPROM, which has become hostage to the US
shale gas boom. EUROPE has suddenly become brave in the face of its gas captor,
and continued low gas prices will help it maintain courage. GAZPROM has already
announced a restructuring of its finance and logistics assets in EUROPE, though
it will deny that this was a result of any pressure by the investigatory forces
in the EUROPEAN Commission.
Though the US is presently dithering
over the issue of regulations that hinder natural gas exports, stalling a
decision until after the elections, it can be assumed that we are on the edge
of a bonanza of US natural gas exports, which will help further chip away at GAZPROM’S
stranglehold on WESTERN EUROPE, and particularly on EASTERN EUROPE—the
geopolitical implications of which are extremely beneficial for the US.
adapted from Oilprice
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